Yeah but a global pandemic is writing new history
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Interest rates at zero, bond and property rental yields at all time lows. Governments printing money. And then printing more money.Originally Posted by Daveya.
And you wonder why the stock markets are so high. Just wish I’d put 2+2 together a few months ago.
Then you would have done what?
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Whipsaw? Not uncommon after a big run-up.
Where do you see the prices dropping to?
Done nothing at all.
After September 11th it took almost 4 years before airline capacity returned to pre September 11th levels. That was one tragic morning. How much longer will it take this time?
Let’s relate to watches as this is a watch forum after all. Tudor recently released the blue 58 on social media and it was an immediate success. Now taking into account Rolex/Tudor have left Baselworld. Perhaps watch companies won’t exhibit at expensive exhibitions where everyone flies into Basel and instead now do the unveiling on social media. A small example of a lot less flying around.
It also took US airline stocks 16 years to recovery to their pricing pre September the 11th.( pointed out in a previous post that bank share price are still well below their pre credit crunch prices 12 years later)
https://www.businessinsider.com/airl...es-2017-6?IR=T
Last edited by jonny; 12th August 2020 at 01:39.
Evidence to the contrary m’lud
Anyone interested in what a YUUUGE capital increase to safe a company has on future stock price have a look at Citibank:
Time will tell ;)
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I have no idea. Gold and silver prices are just a slow random number generator. They can go anywhere, but they won't go to zero or to the moon.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
It's interesting that the appointment of an bankruptcy law professor as VP choice would have spooked markets whilst the reelection of a serial fraudster is seen as a boon.
Your choice, airline and travel are closely connected but two totally different industries, the airline industry looks to have been changed forever as technology now allows business customers to stay on the ground.
I think there will always be a demand for people wanting holidays/travel flights though and any viable vaccine (if that day comes) would give the travel industry a huge boost..
Somebody tell Blockbuster Video!
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
That technology already existed after last crisis. Did business customers stay on the ground after the market recovered? No. They traveled more than during the previous economic peak.
I predict the same will happen. People will go back to old habits so quickly.
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The last crisis wasn't a global disease though, and saving 10k on a business trip you can replicate on your laptop is the teet they will suckle on for some time yet
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A lot of what we used to do has been changed by force and for the better in a lot of areas, I see big changes in my small circle so globally it must be a massive shift.
If it wasn’t global, then what was it?
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A disease?
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Isn't it just.
Over twenty years ago I was peripherally involved for a while in selling business video conferencing into large corporates. It was generally an easy initial sell as everyone you spoke to would readily pay lip service to the efficiency savings to be made.
The further into it you ventured though, the more apparent it became that nobody with any authority was particularly motivated to move the idea forward. One fundamental problem being that they valued their own opportunities for company funded travel, along with the accompanying implied status.
Maybe times have changed and things have moved on...
Yeah they are skint
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Precisely. This is completely different to previous ‘shocks’ when we’re thinking about business travel. The fact there is a very real threat to a staff members health will kill the vast majority of business travel stone dead for the foreseeable future.
While this makes sense for MD's/CEO's the lower ranks who were routinely sent away on business trips will now probabley have their wings clipped, they might not even have an office space and told to perform at home instead!
The Times They Are Changin' as Bob Dylan once wrote..
Skint and probably wanting to manage virus risk... Flying around in compact steel tubes may stay out of fashion for quite a while
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Certainly high risk flying in a plane made of steel
I’m starting to conclude that all the Covid related news/economic downturn is now fully baked into market prices.
There is an expectation that a vaccine will appear and until that point we will muddle along at the current level.
The risks with that are that it takes much longer to establish a vaccine, but given the Russian announcements I expect we will get something the media can push along as a solution in due course. The next big risk is a major second wave ... but given the measures we have in place now I’m thinking that’s unlikely.
So, maybe the Covid crash is now over .... perhaps time to start thinking about how Biden/Brexit will effect markets.
Last edited by Montello; 12th August 2020 at 10:20.
Haha very true, steel content down to 10% it seemsCertainly high risk flying in a plane made of steel
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Time will tell..
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There might be legs in this thought process, with today’s news about the UK being in a recession I would have thought the FTSE and certain shares to have taken a tumble but most sectors are doing okay and in the blue..
ONS confirm official stats show we are in recession for the first time since 2008, and it’s deeper
FTSE up ... go figure.
Last edited by Montello; 12th August 2020 at 12:19.
It seems to me to be moderately likely that the shit will more fully hit the fan for the £ and the UK economy in about 6-12 months.
I’m going to increase my % investment in gold a bit more over the next couple of months as a bit of a buffer.
Be surprised if it takes quite that long tbh, though we're in unprecedented times.
What is fact is that no ones knows which way markets will go, as said it’s unprecedented times..
Give it 2-3 years and I’m sure we’ll all look back and either thank our lucky stars we got out when we did or cry in our beer that we stayed in cash/gold/silver!!
Well we've now got back to where we were a month ago happy days!
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I agree with one exception: big corporations are like oil tankers when it comes to changing course, and with change happening quicker than ever I believe small & mid cap businesses can adapt faster.
Still, according to my wife I’’m never right
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Yep. It's not the big that eat the small any more, today it is the fast that eat the slow
The reason I am backing the large caps is because they will be in the “too big to fail” category and they will have easier access and means for borrowing than mid and small caps.
Dow back above 28000
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the Footsie has performed in an out of balance way versus the Dow
We are now officially in recession
The City ....
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Since records began, you can cut the cognitive dissonance with a butter knife, still onwards and upwards.
When the last bear turns bull.........
The husband of an ex colleague is a Portfolio Manager at a large Hedge Fund and I spoke to him about the markets and that maybe it won't be as bad as feared. His response was to laugh at me. He is expecting the sh*tstorms of all sh*tstorms and that the current market is basically all fake and just fuelled by liquidity. In the end the apples have to grow from the seeds you bought and if instead of apples what you get is rancid turds growing then don't expect to be able to get much for the seeds when you decide to sell them on. He believes this is a once in a generation thing and it is going to be brutal.
I bet he still has equities in his portfolio
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A very vivid and emotive description. Would be interesting to see his holdings.
I’d agree current valuations seem very high but you have to look around. Where are you going to park your capital?
There is no doubt that central banks have plenty of appetite to do “what ever it takes ...”
Did you ask when this apocalypse will occur?
Last edited by Montello; 13th August 2020 at 19:40.
He's a hedge fund manager he should know how to "hedge" his bets - or has he just followed the herd taking his fees when the market moves higher and taking his fees when the market moves lower?
Ryan doesn't say anywhere what this guy's approach is. He is just pointing out his view on the market.
Who says a hedgd fund manager is out to hedge his bets? He's out to outperform the market and his fee will be mostly be made up through performance. He won't be trying to follow the herd, he'll be trying to lead it.
Most hedge funds try to make performance whether markets go up or down, they achieve that through a diversified portfolio of bets which are supposed to cancel each other out in terms of market exposure and deliver pure alpha. They don't follow the market other than they may have a (small) long or short bias every now and then.
^This applies mostly to long/short equity hedge funds (which are still the largest subgroup of hedge funds), but in principle the same applies to arbitrage or macro funds.
The eschaton perhaps?
It only gets better. Buy stocks.
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