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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #551
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    another day

    FTSE 100 down 2% on opening

    £ down a smidgen versus US$ and Euro

    and the oil price??

    (ITV share price getting hammered - I bought £5k's worth on a punt at 94p two weeks ago - now 63p - I was told be my son-in-law, who works in the industry to be careful)
    Ad revenues across the board will be down, but especially for TV broadcast media for a good while I'd say.

  2. #552
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Ad revenues across the board will be down, but especially for TV broadcast media for a good while I'd say.
    I fancy that they will be acquired ........ I did realise that ad revenues would be down but they are also having problems making new content

  3. #553
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    I keep Mentioning this firm !
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  4. #554
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post


    I keep Mentioning this firm !
    Sounds Russian - could never invest in that

    although I have had quite a few Polymetal International shares for some time

  5. #555
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post


    I keep Mentioning this firm !
    And thank you too as I picked up a small loose change position, circa £3k, a week or so ago (could be longer, is anyone else losing all sense of time?!) and its up over 50%.

    Edit: tell a lie, just checked and it's 61.64%, cash back.
    Last edited by ~dadam02~; 30th March 2020 at 11:21.

  6. #556
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    Sounds Russian - could never invest in that

    although I have had quite a few Polymetal International shares for some time
    French but based across the road from me and world leaders on Covid 19 Detection tests
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  7. #557
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    It looks as if Rolls Royce are now a real worry - a great British company that could be in trouble

    share price at one third of what it was 5 years ago,

    although I'm not particularly speaking here of the company as an investment, but they probably employ over 50,000 people

    when will the vultures start to circle?

    an interesting comment which I was never aware of

    "Airlines have “power by the hour” contracts with Rolls, paying for the number of flight hours on Rolls engines for their wide-body planes. Revenues have collapsed as demand for air travel plunges and borders close"
    Last edited by BillN; 30th March 2020 at 12:30.

  8. #558
    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    It looks as if Rolls Royce are now a real worry - a great British company that could be in trouble

    share price at one third of what it was 5 years ago,

    although I'm not particularly speaking here of the company as an investment, but they probably employ over 50,000 people

    when will the vultures start to circle?
    How's their balance sheet looking. Any real liabilities? No doubt sales of engines is going to be taking a massive hit. Not sure what sort of company would want to buy it?

  9. #559
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    How's their balance sheet looking. Any real liabilities? No doubt sales of engines is going to be taking a massive hit. Not sure what sort of company would want to buy it?
    interesting comment

    "Airlines have “power by the hour” contracts with Rolls, paying for the number of flight hours on Rolls engines for their wide-body planes. Revenues have collapsed as demand for air travel plunges and borders close".

  10. #560
    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    interesting comment

    "Airlines have “power by the hour” contracts with Rolls, paying for the number of flight hours on Rolls engines for their wide-body planes. Revenues have collapsed as demand for air travel plunges and borders close".
    Oh that's right, I totally forgot that's how it works.

    I assume balance sheet is tough looking as lots of money will likely go to R&D. I doubt they have much cash to weather a very low revenue year.

  11. #561
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    interesting comment

    "Airlines have “power by the hour” contracts with Rolls, paying for the number of flight hours on Rolls engines for their wide-body planes. Revenues have collapsed as demand for air travel plunges and borders close".
    Interesting business model, I am sure the airlines were happy that they found a fool that was prepared to take that risk from them.

    Only a few weeks ago I was lectured in this thread that RR didn't have much exposure to commercial airlines. Well, they are a whole pound cheaper today than on that day.

  12. #562
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Interesting business model, I am sure the airlines were happy that they found a fool that was prepared to take that risk from them.

    Only a few weeks ago I was lectured in this thread that RR didn't have much exposure to commercial airlines. Well, they are a whole pound cheaper today than on that day.
    Their supply chain, (in the UK, I have only had experience of the RR UK), will suffer as RR traditionally have always taken at least 3 months credit, so obviously that will get extended.

    It is extremely worrying employment-wise - unemployment in the UK will be at horrendous levels in the coming months/years - has anyone seen any estimates?

  13. #563
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    Their supply chain, (in the UK, I have only had experience of the RR UK), will suffer as RR traditionally have always taken at least 3 months credit, so obviously that will get extended.

    It is extremely worrying employment-wise - unemployment in the UK will be at horrendous levels in the coming months/years - has anyone seen any estimates?
    RR have played a very risky business model, credit is for banks which have much better access to capital markets than an industrial company.

    Agree on the horrendous outlook for jobs, it's what politics are trying to address through the huge stimulus package but we got no idea how it will play out.

  14. #564
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Interesting business model, I am sure the airlines were happy that they found a fool that was prepared to take that risk from them.

    Only a few weeks ago I was lectured in this thread that RR didn't have much exposure to commercial airlines. Well, they are a whole pound cheaper today than on that day.
    as I understand it half of RR's turnover is dependant on its civil aerospace business

  15. #565
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post

    Agree on the horrendous outlook for jobs, it's what politics are trying to address through the huge stimulus package but we got no idea how it will play out.
    I don't think the action the UK Government have taken re supporting wage and salary costs, will make any significant difference to many companies who have had to work on such tight margins to compete........... many are going to collapse

  16. #566
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    as I understand it half of RR's turnover is dependant on its civil aerospace business
    Then they are in big trouble as airlines are going to be battered by this, I’m wondering which major player will be the first to file, then I suspect more will fall like dominos.

  17. #567
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Then they are in big trouble as airlines are going to be battered by this, I’m wondering which major player will be the first to file, then I suspect more will fall like dominos.
    RR shares down 11% so far today

  18. #568
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    I don't think the action the UK Government have taken re supporting wage and salary costs, will make any significant difference to many companies who have had to work on such tight margins to compete........... many are going to collapse
    Agree, there is quite a risk. Not much that they can do to save companies which don't have a sustainable business model, though.

  19. #569
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    and nor should they, support businesses without a sustainable business model, I mean.

  20. #570
    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    and nor should they, support businesses without a sustainable business model, I mean.
    The Government will need to decide what industries to save and which should be exposed to the market. Whoever they decide to help, the Government should be setting extremely stringent conditions. Unlike in the US where the terms seem very short term and can be manipulated. Fingers crossed.

  21. #571
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    RR now down almost 15% today

  22. #572
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    I think oil is good to buy for long term but i am not experienced trader so any advice is welcome from trade pundits here

  23. #573
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    And thank you too as I picked up a small loose change position, circa £3k, a week or so ago (could be longer, is anyone else losing all sense of time?!) and its up over 50%.

    Edit: tell a lie, just checked and it's 61.64%, cash back.
    I have been bangjng on about them for weeks since buying into them around .67p.

    A take over at £4 is realistic but given the worldwide requirement to test and these guys being the approved then £4-£7 could be days / weeks away.
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  24. #574
    Quote Originally Posted by turbomolwi View Post
    I think oil is good to buy for long term but i am not experienced trader so any advice is welcome from trade pundits here
    Why the hunch about oil ?

    Worldwide demand down over 25%, massive over production, and talk of the oil producers having to pay to get rid of their crude as nowhere left to store it.

    Good luck !


    Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app

  25. #575
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbomolwi View Post
    I think oil is good to buy for long term but i am not experienced trader so any advice is welcome from trade pundits here
    "Oil prices have tumbled to their lowest level in 18 years amid fears that producers could quickly run out of storage space for crude rendered surplus by falling demand in the coronavirus crisis. Brent crude, the global benchmark price, fell by 9.5 per cent to $22.57 a barrel last night, its lowest level since early 2002 and down two thirds since the start of this year". - The Times

  26. #576
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    we are now into economic Armageddon - so many companies are going to go under

  27. #577
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    The Dow's gone from 18,600 last week to 22,300 yesterday! This when the US is starting to experience Covid19 properly itself. I just don't understand... Any thoughts on why?

  28. #578
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    How safe is your ISA?

    as I understand it:

    Cash ISA - £85k is protected under the terms of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme

    Stocks and Shares ISA is treated differently from a cash ISA. For a stocks and shares ISA, the first £50,000 is protected, (under the terms of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme), should the provider go under


    Please correct me if I am wrong!

  29. #579
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    Sounds about right Bill, after all IF you've decided to go the stocks/shares route you've weighed up the greater risks involved offset against greater potential for rewards and are comfortable with less protection than is afforded by cash, certainly one way of viewing it/ the reality of the situation.


    from fscs.org
    'The Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) will protect money that is put into a LISA. For cash amounts this limit will be up to £85,000, while the protection limit for investments held in a LISA will be £50,000; these are the same limits for cash, and stocks and shares ISAs respectively.Apr 1, 2017'

    Applies to cash in a current account, IF the bank goes down only your first 85 k is protected, beyond that not...though in reality good luck getting your money back should you end up in the same boat as thousands, ten/hundreds of thousands of others at the same time.
    Learning from '08 it became key/prudent to spread even 'risk free' cash around.

    Money in all likelihood you'll have paid tax on in the process of earning , then tax on the interest quite possibly, then tax when you spend it...Governments can't/won't even safeguard the basics when you get right down to it, but they'll always take their pound of flesh from you. Sorry minor rant.
    Last edited by Passenger; 31st March 2020 at 09:06.

  30. #580
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    Ive gone in fairly heavy with Barclays shares. Safe bet they will bounce back to around 1.50/180, currently around the 90p mark.

  31. #581
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ethos View Post
    The Dow's gone from 18,600 last week to 22,300 yesterday! This when the US is starting to experience Covid19 properly itself. I just don't understand... Any thoughts on why?
    Optimism that the stimulus will work.

    Personally I think it’s overdone.

    I spoke to an American friend last night, a smart guy who is well travelled. He said most people are relatively unconcerned and view it on par with the flu. He lives in California and said his view was in line with the general view. The level of fear was much lower than the European view.

  32. #582
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ivan Drago View Post
    Ive gone in fairly heavy with Barclays shares. Safe bet they will bounce back to around 1.50/180, currently around the 90p mark.
    Maybe I should change my name to The Prophet of Doom


    "Banks in Britain could face losses of more than US$15 billion on loans that backed leveraged buyouts and other highly geared transactions, research suggests. These loans risk going sour as an economic slump affects the cash flow of companies with heavy debts. Insurers, hedge funds and small investors in corporate bond funds are also at risk." - The Times

  33. #583
    Quote Originally Posted by Ethos View Post
    The Dow's gone from 18,600 last week to 22,300 yesterday! This when the US is starting to experience Covid19 properly itself. I just don't understand... Any thoughts on why?
    People will soon realise how devastating this will be long term. I am in the software industry and virtually every prospect we are talking to has now stalled all current projects with no end date to review that situation. Every single car dealer out there is going to have stock to sell and nobody will be buying it. The majority of the high street will go into receivership as people have no spare cash to buy things and people have across the board bought into online. The airlines will all struggle to recover and businesses lock down travel and encourage people to use video conferencing in the future. People will not be taking holidays abroad this summer. The list goes on and on and on. If anyone thinks there is a fast turnaround from this they are truly delusional, the long term repercussions of this across the worlds economy will take years to recover from. People just done want to believe it, but this is a reset of mammoth proportions and we are nowhere near the worst of it yet. The markets will crumble in the next six months, you mark my words on it.

  34. #584
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Optimism that the stimulus will work.

    Personally I think it’s overdone.

    I spoke to an American friend last night, a smart guy who is well travelled. He said most people are relatively unconcerned and view it on par with the flu. He lives in California and said his view was in line with the general view. The level of fear was much lower than the European view.
    I think you're right re the stimulus, optimism, plus greed as per usual.

    Was your American friend commenting on the health and, or economic, situations as impacted by Covid, just curious...

  35. #585
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    Quote Originally Posted by langdalematt View Post
    People will soon realise how devastating this will be long term. I am in the software industry and virtually every prospect we are talking to has now stalled all current projects with no end date to review that situation. Every single car dealer out there is going to have stock to sell and nobody will be buying it. The majority of the high street will go into receivership as people have no spare cash to buy things and people have across the board bought into online. The airlines will all struggle to recover and businesses lock down travel and encourage people to use video conferencing in the future. People will not be taking holidays abroad this summer. The list goes on and on and on. If anyone thinks there is a fast turnaround from this they are truly delusional, the long term repercussions of this across the worlds economy will take years to recover from. People just done want to believe it, but this is a reset of mammoth proportions and we are nowhere near the worst of it yet. The markets will crumble in the next six months, you mark my words on it.
    Indeed, this is not the 'simple' fix as in '08, it's a much greater, more far reaching shock.
    The final nail in the coffin of High St. retail.
    Last edited by Passenger; 31st March 2020 at 09:30.

  36. #586
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    I think you're right re the stimulus, optimism, plus greed as per usual.

    Was your American friend commenting on the health and, or economic, situations as impacted by Covid, just curious...
    Both, he was incredibly casual about the whole situation; there where a few of us on a conference call and we were all speechless. Like I say this is a smart guy and I was expecting he would see things like us. It was a real eye opener as to how people in different places are viewing this.

    The cases in the USA are still climbing fast and when this really starts to hit the USA there has to be some realisation... the USA set the tone for the other markets around the worlds and right now they think they have this licked ... I’m less sure.

  37. #587
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    For those that are bearish, you can buy a 3x short FTSE 100 ETF: 3UKS.L

  38. #588
    This is where I think we're at - the markets, in general have priced in Q1. So if you're day trading, we're probably at a bottoms of sorts. HOWEVER, Q1 is now over and as a lot of you have talked about, it is likely to get a lot worse. We have not hit the recession for instance that will come. And I think deflation is still the big risk.

  39. #589
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKitega View Post
    For those that are bearish, you can buy a 3x short FTSE 100 ETF: 3UKS.L
    Never buy any leveraged ETFs. They will destroy your capital even if the underlying goes into your direction. Those should really be forbidden.

    Thank me later.

  40. #590
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    How safe is your ISA?

    as I understand it:

    Cash ISA - £85k is protected under the terms of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme

    Stocks and Shares ISA is treated differently from a cash ISA. For a stocks and shares ISA, the first £50,000 is protected, (under the terms of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme), should the provider go under


    Please correct me if I am wrong!
    The protection amount only refers to cash. All securities and funds are held on behalf of you, even if your bank or insurance provider goes under they are still yours. There have been problems with that principle when Lehman went under, but that was related to fine print in prime brokerage agreements and didn't apply to consumers.

  41. #591
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    Lying awake at about 2am this morning with my mind doing lots of unpaid overtime, I suddenly thought about my car. I haven’t driven for over 3 weeks so need to start it up. That led me to think about the miles I can do on my lease deal and how I’d be under when the deal ends, which led me to thinking about paying out £900 pm for two lease deals, which led me to think that I wouldn’t be doing that again in the future, which led me to think about all the pcp and ch hire financing out there that the finance industry have been predicting for a long time will be the next financial disaster, which will now come home to roost immediately because of the current climate, which in turn will have a devastating effect on the car industry.

    Which led me to think that in almost every scenario you think about there will be consequences- house prices, travel industry, shops, financial, leisure, commodities, pubs, hotels etc etc.

    So I don’t think this is overdone, I think it’s reality setting in very quickly. How bad the damage will be is the unknown. The quicker lockdown ends the less it will be, the longer the worse it will be.

    The real sad thing is the loss of life which is truly awful. The positive is that we will bounce back and hopefully we’ll have different priorities going forward. I’ve seen some amazing acts of bravery from those on the front line to people just looking after their neighbours.

  42. #592
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Both, he was incredibly casual about the whole situation; there where a few of us on a conference call and we were all speechless. Like I say this is a smart guy and I was expecting he would see things like us. It was a real eye opener as to how people in different places are viewing this.

    The cases in the USA are still climbing fast and when this really starts to hit the USA there has to be some realisation... the USA set the tone for the other markets around the worlds and right now they think they have this licked ... I’m less sure.
    I share your same doubts, we skype the wifes family in the US a couple of times a week, my Fil has been in commercial/industrial real estate for about the last 60 year, because of their age to our great relief they chose to hunker down in their Florida home and not return to Philly after over wintering, there's a bit of an epicentre emerging close to their home...Although his stock tips mostly suck, his view, based on over a half century of business experience engaged with the 'real' nuts and bolts of the economy is that the bankruptcies from this are going to be bad, real bad.

    I caught a piece in the Economist, iirc, the gist basically this first couple of trillion for corporate America will most likely be just the beginning.

  43. #593
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    I have been bangjng on about them for weeks since buying into them around .67p.

    A take over at £4 is realistic but given the worldwide requirement to test and these guys being the approved then £4-£7 could be days / weeks away.
    Interesting. What's your basis for the takeover speculation?

    I hope this investment tip works out better than the last one.


    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Interesting watching the last few hours as Eth makes marginal gains as the rest drift a little. I put Eth at £2000 by the end of the year minimum
    That was here:


  44. #594
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Never buy any leveraged ETFs. They will destroy your capital even if the underlying goes into your direction. Those should really be forbidden.

    Thank me later.
    I'll admit my naivety, I read his post, didn't understand it so immediately and 'safely' concluded I've no interest in this idea. lolz.

  45. #595
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    Also, over the weekend Abbott Labs got FDA approval for a COVID-19 test that gives results in 5 minutes, vs 2 hours for the Novacyt one. Too late I'd think to buy into NCYT

  46. #596
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    Lying awake at about 2am this morning with my mind doing lots of unpaid overtime, I suddenly thought about my car. I haven’t driven for over 3 weeks so need to start it up. That led me to think about the miles I can do on my lease deal and how I’d be under when the deal ends, which led me to thinking about paying out £900 pm for two lease deals, which led me to think that I wouldn’t be doing that again in the future, which led me to think about all the pcp and ch hire financing out there that the finance industry have been predicting for a long time will be the next financial disaster, which will now come home to roost immediately because of the current climate, which in turn will have a devastating effect on the car industry.

    Which led me to think that in almost every scenario you think about there will be consequences- house prices, travel industry, shops, financial, leisure, commodities, pubs, hotels etc etc.

    So I don’t think this is overdone, I think it’s reality setting in very quickly. How bad the damage will be is the unknown. The quicker lockdown ends the less it will be, the longer the worse it will be.

    The real sad thing is the loss of life which is truly awful. The positive is that we will bounce back and hopefully we’ll have different priorities going forward. I’ve seen some amazing acts of bravery from those on the front line to people just looking after their neighbours.
    I think you've put your finger on a major, as yet unquantified/ unquantifiable issue, across the board consumer behaviour is going to change as a consequence of this with all sorts of ramifications, maybe for the better given time.

  47. #597
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    I'll admit my naivety, I read his post, didn't understand it so immediately and 'safely' concluded I've no interest in this idea. lolz.
    If you are interested, it's actually simple maths:

    https://www.morningstar.com/articles...ill-portfolios

    https://etfdb.com/leveraged-etfs/lev...ing-with-etfs/

  48. #598
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Thanks R but nah I'll keep applying the old adage, if I miss out I can live with that.

  49. #599
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    Friends and workmates in the US tell
    me that the impact varies from state to state, based on the attitude of the Governor in the main (as the Federal govt has been largely AWOL). Obviously there are geographic and social differences as well.

    Two Floridian friends tell me that their Governor is a close ally of Trump and has taken a similarly dismissive approach up until now. Combined with the elderly retirement population and the virus ‘refugees’ from the more northern states, they are anticipating a very bad situation there. Certainly no sense of it “only being ‘flu”.

    In Hong Kong our office has gone back to ‘double teaming’, having cautiously returned to work a few weeks ago.

    We all hope for good news (a little in the UK in the last 24 hours) but the expert from the WHO I listened to a couple of weeks ago said that the economic disruption would last all year and I don’t see any reason to disbelieve him.

  50. #600
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    I think you've put your finger on a major, as yet unquantified/ unquantifiable issue, across the board consumer behaviour is going to change as a consequence of this with all sorts of ramifications, maybe for the better given time.
    Well we will see. People have short memories but I suspect this is a moment in time which will endure. I can see a different future ahead with much changed behaviour.

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