Reply With QuoteJust asking out of vulgar curiosity really, how will you know?Originally Posted by mr noble
Still a pretty long way to go until I’m back in profit.
Will see how it’s looking at the time. If we’re at the lower left end of another parabolic rise, like we saw in 2017 and 2020/1 then I won’t be selling.
Having waited patiently for nearly three years, sitting on massive losses in MSTR and ARB, it might just turn rosey after all.
My other portfolio on IBKR has done very well so far and I think there’s a lot more to come from Bitcoin and its proxies.
Just asking out of vulgar curiosity really, how will you know?
Finger in the air, Pete.
But seriously, I’m sure you’re well read up on the BTC cycles since 2010 and how things are shaping up for the same again, only this time the institutions are all looking like joining the party.
There’s lots going on in BTC land. It’s either going to be one massive pump and dump or a steady rise up to a new top in 2025.
On that point I think we can definitely agree.
I'll certainly be keeping a interested eye on the 'Noble Miners' into the new year, and I really do hope they work out for you.
How has that gone so far for you?
Yes, all the institutions. Didn't we hear this before?
Certainly, lots going on in BTC land, record interest from everywhere:
https://trends.google.com/trends/exp...tcoin&hl=en-GB
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Gold is around all time high and the miners are doing nothing... Ive most of my money parked in Goldminers (Alamos, Agnico Eagle, New Gold) and Uranium (Cameco, Kazatomprom, Denison). Hoping commodities will keep doing well in 2024.
Good luck with that, I’m now fully invested in a dull diversified portfolio of trackers and investment trusts.
I’m still keen to exit the properties.
Would it be okay if you share your portfolio?
I’m looking for ideas how to reshuffle for the. We year. Many thanks!
If you are looking for example / model portfolio I’d suggest some reading or Google research. I’m not sure my efforts would make a helpful model/example.
Truflation now has US inflation at 1.45% and UK inflation at 2.37%. if that holds US for sure will see interest rates cut heavily soon, UK now has inflation at target but it has been dropping hard so one must assume it will continue to drop and interest rates also will be cut, probably a few months after the US does so however.
Now wouldn't be the smartest time to fix a mortgage on a long term deal
With job numbers coming in hot on Friday and US economy looking strong, it's probably gonna be "higher for longer". The Fed is always late to react too.
Inflation likely to drop even harder in April as energy prices drop and the price cap is lowered by 12%.
We may even see a dip into negative territory during spring.
The cuts are coming.
https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/reso...rn-to-target/#
Also, house prices have risen for the fourth consecutive month according to Halifax. Nationwide figures similar.
Are we past the dip and back on the uptrend already?
"expect stronger growth in real household incomes"
Appreciate this is the investment thread but is inflation not already baked into cost of living hits in April council tax (4.99%), broadband and mobile renewals (no doubt chosen at highest point+CPI 3.9%), car insurance, car tax, TV license, water bills (6%), train travel from outside London etc. A drop in energy price cap when you use the least isn't exactly useful when pummelled all winter, expect to see the usual drip drop in car fuel prices. I presume any interest rates cuts will be slow in coming so either people have potentially locked into higher fixed or riding variable so not sure how this will help "real household incomes" and are they expecting things in the middle east to chill out and costs not to rise or just know need to say the right things to manage confidence. Anyway carry on investing
Since I first started this thread almost four years ago, the DJIA has risen 23%. I hope each of you is up that much or more!
Petethegeek, you might like to check out this Google doc I’ve been using to keep abreast of all things Microstrategy. It’s a great spreadsheet!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview?pli=1
(Hopefully it loads - you might need to be a Patreon member of the guy who built it?)
I’m finally back in profit with MSTR after a long, cold two years underwater. No plans to sell yet.
Firstly, my congratulations on your return into the money with MicroStrategy, and I hope your steadfastly held belief in Mr Saylor continues to reap the appropriate rewards. Would it be improper of me to enquire as to the current situation with Argo?I’m finally back in profit with MSTR after a long, cold two years underwater. No plans to sell yet.
That spreadsheet would certainly appear to do a sterling job in clarifying what is undoubtedly a thorough and expert analysis into an extremely complex niche area of technical investment. Unfortunately I still remain a mere kibitzer in this line of human endeavour, whose only real involvement consists of occasionally doodling with simple gnuplot* charts.
It's onwards (and upwards?) to the halving then.
*A portable command-line driven graphing utility to which I was introduced by the erudite and much missed Robert (Bob) Frazier, aka rfrazier.
Haha, I do like your charts, Pete. Although I prefer seeing them when I’m in the money rather than deep underwater!
Argo is rather a long story. One for my grandchildren, maybe. A good lesson in what not to do!
I missed a fabulous opportunity to bail out at 33p in January. Would have been 50% down at that point, and could/would have put it all into Cleanspark and would have been well up by now.
I’m still not convinced Argo will survive after the halving. Bitcoin needs to be worth more than about $60,000 or they’ll be loss making again.
If there’s another decent opportunity to jump onto a different horse, I will, but for now, I’m still holding onto 300,000 shares with trembling hands.
My other BTC miner portfolio is still flying. No plans to sell any of that, yet.
Should have put it all into Cleanspark!
What, you piled £200k into Argo? Crikey…
Jesus man! Now you are back in the clear I'd be exiting that position ASAFP!!! Unless you want to take the risk surely you've had a nice escape and now is the opportunity to say 'thank goodness for that!' and get the hell out of there?
Got to go with Ryan’s view there. I would get out ASAP. Better change of going to the moon with premium bonds than that.
Just saying ... above from 28/12/23
You investment style is very interesting ... I'd be following Ryan's advice ...
He who dares, Rodney!
I’ve got price targets for MSTR and ARB. Not there yet.
With Bitcoin planning to smash $100k in the next year so, it’d be crazy to sell just before the silly season starts up again!
I bought around half the shares at 6p so those have helped bring the average right down.
Last edited by mr noble; 16th February 2024 at 16:45.
Good luck I'm watching with interest as I currently rebalance my dull trackers ...
Good, I was assuming you'd purchased at 66p ... still a decent chunk of change, again good luck ... this time next year ...
I’m confident Bitcoin is going to do its thing again over the next 6-18 months.
It’s a fantastic opportunity for massive returns if you’re happy to take the risk.
The time to take the risk was at $15k.
Gotta love the bulls hyping it when it is already rampant. Same people were sh1tting their kecks over a year ago.
Indeed. The big money was there to be made by going into the miners and BTC about 12-16 months ago.
Lots of patience required but the potential future gains could/should be huge, just like they were during the last 3 cycles.
MSTR could explode if BTC goes over $75k as they’d then likely get added to the S&P500 which means hundreds of global funds suddenly have to buy their stock. That will be massive.
I loaded up on miners last December to April and all are up between 80 and 600%. Still a lot more to go too, reliant on BTC, of course.
One that’s still got a long way to go is Soluna (SLNH). That one could see 100X gains over the next 12-18 months. 10X almost certain if BTC carries on heading north.
Seriously I hope it works out for you but investing in this stuff you have to also be prepared to lose your £200k. If you can afford it and you're happy with that risk then all good but you have to start by thinking what's my total downside rather than thinking of the upside. Absolutely anything can happen.
I've no dog in this fight and good luck to everyone but I do recall the BofE Governor during the last press conference reiterating that they consider Bitcoin and crypto to be highly risky investments that ultimately have no 'value' and that they may be worthless in the longer term.
Indeed highly speculative 'investments'.
\I'm not convinced global funds would pile into MSTR given the exposure to Bitcoin,,,all the volatility...or that MSTR will be added to the S and P...courting disaster at scale...
Last edited by Passenger; 20th February 2024 at 07:28.
I've no dog either and I don't have a view on it I'm just trying to make the point that if you continue to trade (any asset really) without managing the downside sooner or later you'll be cleaned out.
Looking at the plummeting share price of Argo currently I hope you heeded advice and traded out
MSTR also has shat the bed over the last week, down 30% since you posted. By my calculations that's a £60k loss.
Please have traded out.
Didn’t even flinch, Ryan.
These little 30% ups and downs are nothing to fear.
One day, everyone, including Mr Bailey, will realise.
Also, you may want to check your calcs mate as it’s not down 30% in the week, it’s actually up 2.65% since 7 days ago. Even from the weekly peak it’s only down 12%.
I’ll also point out that it’s up 50% in the last month and up 145% in the last year.
Last edited by mr noble; 20th February 2024 at 21:04.
MSTR 46% up since last posts here.
#stillnotselling
Strewth - I'd be cashing in and running for the hills
Beautiful chart. Absolutely no reason to sell there.MSTR 46% up since last posts here.
#stillnotselling
I’d be cashing out. Look at the fair value estimate.MSTR 46% up since last posts here.
#stillnotselling
Maybe take some profit and let the rest ride.
Fair value always lags when stocks pump.
I have taken profits and put them into Core Scientific.
Only got 80 MSTR shares left now!
Good luck. You are a glutton for punishment.
I bought some of the shares at $190.
Wish I’d bought synthetic longs at $190 instead. Would have made millions!
I’m pretty sure someone in this thread in the darkest of hours you vowed to shift into a portfolio of trackers if the markets presented you the opportunity to escape your position…
I did. But that was before I’d spent 3 years studying markets, trading and investing for a few hours a day.
I’ll revert to about 50% boring trackers, for stability, but I’m a reformed active investor now.
The simple fact that about 98% of all the S&P500 gains came from just 7 companies and actually mostly just from Nvidia in the last year, says it all really.
The difference in your gains from investing in the tracker rather than trading peaks and troughs on a few stocks that you closely follow, are huge.
I used to spend 6+ hours a day in the car listening to radio 2 or LBC. Now I listen to trading, investing and crypto podcasts. Have learned a lot.
More risk but more reward. (When you get it right)
The days of a 60/40 equity/bond portfolio are dead.
The FTSE trackers are abysmal. I can’t believe I spent 20 years with a good chunk of my SIPP and ISAs in FTSE100 & 250 tracker funds.
The long term returns are a joke. No wonder so many UK based companies don’t want to IPO in London anymore.
FTSE 100 has returned 5.5% in last 5 years and a poxy 23% since 2001.
Almost as terrible as being invested in gold!
Last edited by mr noble; 2nd March 2024 at 10:22.
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