Reply With QuoteI tell everybody to do it like this - the track record of tactical asset allocation is pretty dismal (I should know, I once did it for a living).Originally Posted by xdonolix
If I could only heed my own advice...
I've given up trying to pick the bottom long ago, I always get it wrong. I put a fixed amount in each month spread across a range of trackers, which I have continued throughout this crash. It's much less stressful, and requires no particular market knowledge.
I tell everybody to do it like this - the track record of tactical asset allocation is pretty dismal (I should know, I once did it for a living).
If I could only heed my own advice...
DJIA up by 2.00%+ !!!??? madness!
Sold another chunk of equities this morning
I've been caught up in the recent frenzy and dabbled more than I intended to, however made skne decent returns (>30% overall across a number of stocks) but started winding all my positions up yesterday and will continue to do so today and tomorrow and sit mostly in cash again. Feels like we are sitting in the waiting room and something is going to happen. So, that's me out the game for a while, albeit it was fun and luckily fruitful.
Looks like some profit taking today so the traders can all buy new watches
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Same here, just holding some pharma stock
Just received my pension statement for April 2019 to March 2020, a nice 13.7% has been wiped of my fund value.
Its an employer DC pension, managed by Scottish Widows.
Most of that has probably be regained since April.
after this "bull run" I suppose the question is when will it end and what next as many of us are now probably sitting on a cash pile
Mine was similar , lost a little less about 11% but my balance is now up year on year , not quite back to pre covid but year on year it's up, which is what matters
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Nasdaq 100 all time high..
Greatest 50-day rally in history of S&P....just doesn't make sense to me.
Are we just seeing a mass revaluation of money. When a dollar is no longer a dollar...
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Money has been being devalued for decades, it’s just happening at a faster rate currently.
Absolutely that is kind of my point.
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So you've been buying gold recently then?
I do hold some gold.
Good is likely to hit 2500/3000 dollars .The one to watch is silver always spikes hard
Good move! It's an excellent hedge in these crazy times..
Silver fascinates me, but its a terrifying trade at times. If gold does 1.5/2x - silver will often do multiples of this 3/4/5x, very very under looked in today's market.
Last edited by vulcangascompany; 4th June 2020 at 21:16.
Lots of speculation in the financial press and in this thread about the coming storm/crash/collapse of stock markets, but who here thinks it's a definite coming and who thinks it could just ride out with a few bumps?
Best to play via say junior miners. Good to have physical metal too
In 2011 silver got to 49 bucks I could see it getting to 100 this time.Just my best guess thou
That might be a tad optimistic but I like your style!
Level of QE is many times more this time.Plus there is a gradual move to phase out physical cash. More and more shops don’t take cash etc. So good store of wealth are metals .
Yes and negative interest rates mean that previous storage charges (for commercial investors) are less of an argument. Still not sure about $100 though. I think we’ll break all time high and range $50-65. Whatever..all good multiples of present $17.
Who knows? No one here that’s for sure. I’m bearish but that view is proving expensive and wrong at the moment.
If markets are still holding up in July I’m thinking they will be back in long term bull territory.
So I just traded out everything apart from my Pharma/health trackers, my SMT recent purchase (only 4% of my SIPP), an Ishares Physical Gold tracker (9% of portfolio but I will increase to 20% and add 10% Silver) halved the value of my 2 tech trackers (combined now around 12% of my portfolio) and halved my Fundsmith holding (now it is 7% of my portfolio). I also increased my Astrazeneca holding (my only individual stock and only based on some research I've done that makes me believe it will boom). So now I'll be 31% in stocks, 30% in precious metals and the rest cash. Reason is this:
The pumping we are seeing is based almost entirely on government bailouts and the whole sh*t show is underpinned by a massive debt bubble with the foundations of QE since the credit crunch. Soon the bailout money will dry up as central banks can't prop up failing corporates. Layoffs en masse will also happen from now and ramp and ramp and ramp. So consumer spending goes down, takes the economy with it. This bit is obvious. With virtual negative interest rates surely it makes sense to park money in gold. Re silver that's a bit of a punt but I'll be ok with the volatility.
I also think the carnage to come is starting now. I think it is down from here (or very near here). Sentiment has changed. America is on fire, there is an Anglo Saxon virtual conflict with China and some countries are going to announce higher than hoped for spikes in Covid infections in the next week. The stock market is about to sh*t its pants and there is no spare underwear
Last edited by ryanb741; 4th June 2020 at 22:46.
Thanks for this post, Ryan. As someone who is new to this but putting money in over the past while it’s really helpful to hear of actions, numbers, names and reasoning. It’s really helping to take on board for my own decision making on what to do.
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No probs but I must caveat I am not a financial expert this is just my own hunch and research and I am 20 years away from retirement so can take a few punts. People like Raffe and some of the other guys have a much better understanding of fundamentals and eventually fundamentals come true in how the market is impacted. So I wanted to clarify what I put is not a recommendation as I don't have the expertise to act in that capacity :)
Haha don’t worry I just mean ‘food for thought’. Yeah I do enjoy Raffe’’s posts on here too (well the ones I can understand/look up to try and understand). It’s just handy having names, etc to look up myself as I think that’s what the OP intended for the thread to be; I’d never hold anyone as being responsible for my own decisions.
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Last edited by Chr1stof; 4th June 2020 at 22:55.
the pendulum usually swings too far is both directions before it settles down
Those six airline stocks I picked up about two months ago......are now up 20.6%. Let's see, annualized that's 123.6%! Dumb luck...I should probably sell now, but I won't.
in the present climate I cannot see how you can be confident about any stock's value - the swings on most have been too wild and not supported by fundamentals.Those six airline stocks I picked up about two months ago...
Stock market investment now, (at this time), has become a dangerous game of chance, in which you sometimes win and sometimes loose
..........but as we know "the banker" always comes out on top
I sold another chunk of equities this morning, mainly metals, including gold miners, Polymetal and Centamin .....I feel happier this evening
Last edited by BillN; 4th June 2020 at 23:25.
Well Bill, as I recall, when I bought these six "dogs" they had just been ravaged of 60-80% of their pre-COVID stock prices. When you're at the bottom of the well, there's nowhere to go but up (unless you don't survive, which the U.S. government already signaled it would let happen). Besides, I only invested about $3k in each of the six so if they bombed my portfolio wouldn't even notice.
Interesting - may I ask the rationale for selling metals as I've taken the opposite position? Genuinely interested and I'm not trying to defend my position either as I appreciate there's a strong chance I'll be wrong!
I'm just nervous sitting on anything at the moment, I also sold Rio Tinto this morning, a stock that has done well for me ........ with the other miners, probably sold all too early but I feel that during the next 6 months the downside is greater than any upside by a significant ratio. I have lost confidence in the market and I feel that Governments in the US, UK and EU are not really in control of the situation, economic or otherwise.Well Bill, as I recall, when I bought these six "dogs" they had just been ravaged of 60-80% of their pre-COVID stock prices. When you're at the bottom of the well, there's nowhere to go but up (unless you don't survive, which the U.S. government already signaled it would let happen). Besides, I only invested about $3k in each of the six so if they bombed my portfolio wouldn't even notice.
But good luck ........my cash will go back into the market sometime, where else can it go ........... and maybe that's the "rub"
I generally try not to gamble,
I had reasonable gains which I wanted to crystallise - I'm not now a fan of Gold, never have been really.....but it's had a good run and I was less than impressed with the information/management/location of the two Gold miners that I sold.
I was sad to sell Rio Tinto, had the stock for some time.... but again it's done well for me and I'm happy to take the gain but I may buy back if the situation changes.
Also, as far as Gold is concerned, lots of hype around and I've always be a bit of a contrarian investor and my gut feeling was to sell at this time.
Last edited by BillN; 4th June 2020 at 23:52.
Fair enough, makes sense, thank you for the response, much appreciated.
I’m sort of with PacificChrono, huge companies having had 60/80% wiped off their coffers leaves them little room to go any further down, the bigger establishments will secure government bailouts should it hit the skids, if you have some punt money then a FTSE100 company that has been battered could well be worth your punt money especially airline based, EasyJet has gone from £4 a share to £8 in a very short timescale as an example..
Gold? Going forward then with this inevitable doom coming, is it better to have your money parked in cash earning nothing in the bank but safe or invested in gold?
I’m new to the share game (last 2 months)so have dabbled with Lloyd’s and Nothing else done ok sold all yesterday morning and made 20% (5 figures)profit but lunchtime yesterday the platform I use changed their fixed spread on Lloyd’s from 0.11 to 0.33 is that normal?sorry if this is a noob question
do you mean physical gold, managed funds or individual gold mining company shares?
I can’t argue against that but seems the fed and their ilk will just keep pumping out the funny money to keep the whol shit show running ... never have I seen such a disconnect between the markets and the economy.
The question is ... if it is about to unravel what will be the news items that spark it?
- Second wave on infections? Probably unlikely
- Dire Q2 figures? Probably likely
- Couple of major/unexpected bankruptcies?
- Change of political policy on QE?
What will it take to spoil the party?
Considering the above is the downside risk greater than the upside
and don't forget political events, e.g. US/China, HK, etc.,
Last edited by BillN; 5th June 2020 at 08:35.
Let's also not forget that the market was already expensive before Corona, considering any valuation methodology. Why we would need to surpass these levels against the backdrop of a global recession, renewed tesnions with China and riots on the street is beyond me.
I agree, I think political instability throughout the world is increasing which is another danger - maybe even a greater danger than ever before
but, sitting on cash were do you put it, BTL loan rates in the UK are very low at the present time, under 2%.......BTL now worth considering?
Last edited by BillN; 5th June 2020 at 08:47.
This morning - I just don't understand this
"8.30am: Travel stocks lead the rally
Airline and cruise stocks led the Footsie higher at the outset as investors continue to take heart from the gradual loosening of lockdown restrictions.
London’s index of leading shares was up 46 points (0.7%) at 6,387.
Low-cost airline easyJet PLC (LON:EZJ) was the Footsie’s top performer, up 9.2% at 910p, followed by British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines (LON:IAG), up 4.9% at 302.2p."
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...ta-921221.html
Markets going crazy again and it reminds me of the crypto markets a couple of years ago at the turn of the year before they all went pop.
Just sold some Rolls Royce shares at £3.48 and a nice profit, the strategy I'm using if you can call it that is sell my investment amount and keep the profit in shares, long term hopefully it pays off..
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