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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #6701
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Whoa! Who shot SMT?

    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

  2. #6702
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Just bought some Coinbase at $260.
    #plantpot

  3. #6703
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Whoa! Who shot SMT?

    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
    Relaxed to watch it plummet while not being heavily invested. (Not invested at all just now)


    It certainly goes when it goes! I guess it's to do with the whole fund using leverage.

  4. #6704
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Relaxed to watch it plummet while not being heavily invested. (Not invested at all just now)


    It certainly goes when it goes! I guess it's to do with the whole fund using leverage.
    I had assumed it was caused by you lumping in ....

  5. #6705
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    not selling yet for your customary 6% gainz?

  6. #6706
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKitega View Post
    not selling yet for your customary 6% gainz?
    My customary 6% gainz have made me a nice profit so far this year. I can live with that.
    #plantpot

  7. #6707
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    My customary 6% gainz have made me a nice profit so far this year. I can live with that.
    Dare I say it.. might be read that the great Raffe is warming to holding some crypto stonks.

    Well played sir. May you be rewarded greatly

    Sent from my EVR-L29 using Tapatalk

  8. #6708
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Brilliant tip. Thanks.
    Barrick Gold up 10%. I hope you bought some. I did.

    Sign of the times isn’t it when you feel that a stock rising 10% in 3 weeks is a comparative failure.

    Also my SGLN and SSLN slowly edging their way towards break even, though still a way to go yet.

  9. #6709
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKitega View Post
    Dare I say it.. might be read that the great Raffe is warming to holding some crypto stonks.

    Well played sir. May you be rewarded greatly

    Sent from my EVR-L29 using Tapatalk
    COIN is just a fee machine, don't see any correlation to the underlying other than that there needs to be enough hype to warrant trading activity - whether up or down.

    I would never hold any of the long beta plays on crypto like MSTR, Argo, MARA or RIOT. All of these have substantial implosion risk embedded (with Microstrategy being the worst of them).

    My main activity is trading futures, long a NQ/ES spread today which has just turned positive from a rather deep underwater position an hour ago. Let it run.
    #plantpot

  10. #6710
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Tesla is having a bit of a bad hair day. Breaks my heart, not.
    Not much better for Mike either.



    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I would never hold any of the long beta plays on crypto like MSTR, Argo, MARA or RIOT. All of these have substantial implosion risk embedded (with Microstrategy being the worst of them).
    As the highest weighted stock in JPM's Cryptocurrency Basket MSTR (20%) is currently during them few favours.
    Last edited by petethegeek; 10th May 2021 at 20:23. Reason: added link for basket

  11. #6711
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Barrick Gold up 10%. I hope you bought some. I did.

    Sign of the times isn’t it when you feel that a stock rising 10% in 3 weeks is a comparative failure.

    Also my SGLN and SSLN slowly edging their way towards break even, though still a way to go yet.
    I didn’t buy any as I have exposure to SGLN and SSLN.

    I bought the silver way back last March when it was $13 an Oz. It just seemed way too cheap. I wish I’d realised just how many other things were cheap back then and had loaded up rather than spending 6 months sat in cash.

    Lots has been learnt (and lost) over this last 12 month journey.

    Hopefully all lessons that will lead to a good investing journey from here on.

    I do not intend to carry on with most of my pension/ISA pot sat in a Life Strategy fund.

  12. #6712
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Not sure what caused tonights dump across the board on tech and other stocks. Crypto taking a dive too.

    Something has spooked everyone!


    I took it as a good buying op and bought some more OUST & TIGR. Was tempted to buy more Microstrategy and even thought about Tesla! No doubt that'll be back at $750 later in the week.

  13. #6713
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Not sure what caused tonights dump across the board on tech and other stocks. Crypto taking a dive too.

    Something has spooked everyone!


    I took it as a good buying op and bought some more OUST & TIGR. Was tempted to buy more Microstrategy and even thought about Tesla! No doubt that'll be back at $750 later in the week.
    Anticipating really bad CPI data on Wednesday. Commodities still going through the roof with iron ore futures up 10% today. Colonial pipeline causing transport fuel to spike with further concerns for inflation. EV manufacturer Workhorse bad results causing all EV stocks to dump.

    High momentum stocks took a broad 5-10% bath today. Brave enough to buy the dip?

  14. #6714
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    Tech sell-off continues, Tesla below $600.

    Only $550 to go.
    #plantpot

  15. #6715
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    It is properly puking away share price, lovely. $550 and ill be a very happy bunny.

  16. #6716
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    It is properly puking away share price, lovely. $550 and ill be a very happy bunny.
    I want to see it a lot lower than that. And when I say that, I mean A LOT.
    #plantpot

  17. #6717
    Master ~dadam02~'s Avatar
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    Problem is we had this before back in Feb when TSLA sharted itself. Unfortunately I got greedy and didn't exit at the right time, so this time i'm not going to miss out. Do you see this current drop continuing further?

  18. #6718
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    At what price will you be buying?
    'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.

  19. #6719
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Problem is we had this before back in Feb when TSLA sharted itself. Unfortunately I got greedy and didn't exit at the right time, so this time i'm not going to miss out. Do you see this current drop continuing further?
    $400 short term.
    #plantpot

  20. #6720
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I would never hold any of the long beta plays on crypto like MSTR, Argo, MARA or RIOT. All of these have substantial implosion risk embedded (with Microstrategy being the worst of them).

    Pre-market just now versus close yesterday:

    Bitcoin: unchanged.

    MSTR: -6%
    Argo: -12%
    MARA: -20%
    RIOT: -17%
    #plantpot

  21. #6721
    FTSE back to where it was 3 weeks ago, a more positive spin than looking at the hit today

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  22. #6722
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    FTSE back to where it was 3 weeks ago, a more positive spin than looking at the hit today

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
    The Dow Jones printed a fresh all-time high yesterday.

    It's just hyped-up garbage tech stocks with no earnings that are under pressure, most of them now down more than 50% from their peaks from February and with plenty of further downside potential.
    #plantpot

  23. #6723
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    Delighted that I liquidated my Argo Blockchain Portfolio at 200p a couple weeks ago.

    Less delighted that I piled the entire proceeds into SMT.



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  24. #6724
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Pre-market just now versus close yesterday:

    Bitcoin: unchanged.

    MSTR: -6%
    Argo: -12%
    MARA: -20%
    RIOT: -17%
    It’s ok, my boss says I can work till I’m 75.

  25. #6725
    First V8 Tesla has been fired up to the moon!

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  26. #6726
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Such a strong bounce after a gap-down open is quite a sign. This may lead to a day or two of strength that can take us quite a bit higher.

    Was contemplating to buy some futures and Tesla just before the open, but then I didn't. Fool, me.
    #plantpot

  27. #6727
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    Ok what happened, i stepped out for an hour and the world turned on its head and has righted itself

  28. #6728
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Ok what happened, i stepped out for an hour and the world turned on its head and has righted itself
    Well, well. Really classic bounce off a gapped open - but now it's fading again. If this cannot return to a solid green candle on the major markets before closing we will see a big correction.

    Staying sidelined except for the TSLA puts**, which are showing handsome gains.

    (** almost forgot my Coinbase stock. Still holding).
    Last edited by Raffe; 11th May 2021 at 15:36.
    #plantpot

  29. #6729
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Well, well. Really classic bounce off a gapped open - but now it's fading again. If this cannot return to a solid green candle on the major markets before closing we will see a big correction.

    Staying sidelined except for the TSLA puts**, which are showing handsome gains.

    (** almost forgot my Coinbase stock. Still holding).
    I am taking a chance and buying some S&P and Nasdaq here, will manage this tightly.
    #plantpot

  30. #6730
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    Raffe, are you thinking it’s all going to either move in a big way down or a big way up?

    I’d be handy to know which one.

    I was rather surprised to see such a bounce earlier when I stopped for a coffee and had a look. Nice for it not to be the bloodbath I was expecting.

    The was a lot of dip buying going on just as the markets opened.

  31. #6731
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Raffe, are you thinking it’s all going to either move in a big way down or a big way up?

    I’d be handy to know which one.

    I was rather surprised to see such a bounce earlier when I stopped for a coffee and had a look. Nice for it not to be the bloodbath I was expecting.

    The was a lot of dip buying going on just as the markets opened.
    I still think there is a big chance of a bloodbath, maybe just not today.
    #plantpot

  32. #6732
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Delighted that I liquidated my Argo Blockchain Portfolio at 200p a couple weeks ago.

    Less delighted that I piled the entire proceeds into SMT.



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    Been an ugly time for SMT. Unfortunately I also bought at the wrong time. Luckily I didn't buy much but it still hurts to see it blotting my copybook!

  33. #6733
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I am taking a chance and buying some S&P and Nasdaq here, will manage this tightly.
    Just closed my futures, may still go higher but don't feel like owning this risk over night.

    Jut keeping Coinbase and Tesla puts.
    #plantpot

  34. #6734
    Ouch, US CPI printed 4.2% for April.

  35. #6735
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Ouch, US CPI printed 4.2% for April.
    Still, overrated. When everybody and their dog are discussing CPI as if it was the only relevant variable, you should disregard it. It is a sign of healthy economic activity, how for that interpretation?

    I just bought the dip to 4,108 in S&P500, will manage a tight stop and we will see where this goes.


    ** sold for a 10 point gain as 10Y and 30Y interest rates are rising.... rather watching for 30 minutes from the sidelines.
    Last edited by Raffe; 12th May 2021 at 13:56.
    #plantpot

  36. #6736
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Still, overrated. When everybody and their dog are discussing CPI as if it was the only relevant variable, you should disregard it. It is a sign of healthy economic activity, how for that interpretation?

    I just bought the dip to 4,108 in S&P500, will manage a tight stop and we will see where this goes.


    ** sold for a 10 point gain as 10Y and 30Y interest rates are rising.... rather watching for 30 minutes from the sidelines.
    Month over month of 0.9%, making double digit annual inflation by extrapolation.

    But, it’s only transitory of course. The Fed says so.

  37. #6737
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Month over month of 0.9%, making double digit annual inflation by extrapolation.

    But, it’s only transitory of course. The Fed says so.
    You cannot extrapolate monthly inflation numbers.

    But I agree, it's elevated. Lot's of capacity bottlenecks in the system, related to the pandemic itself (logistics, labour restrictions) but also with surprisingly quick return of economic activity and related lack of planning/investment by companies. But rest assured, it is temporary. Six months down the line nobody will talk about inflation any longer.
    #plantpot

  38. #6738

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Ok, no extrapolation. Month on month US CPI up, up, up.

    Dec = 0.2%
    Jan = 0.3%
    Feb = 0.4%
    Mar = 0.6%
    Apr = 0.8%

    I appreciate you probably know more on this topic, but as with the March 2020 not everything is rational.

    Psychological effects of inflation can feed on itself, significantly increasing the demand side of the equation, even if supply side starts to sorts itself out. Buy now as it will only be more expensive next month/year mentality.

    Even on the supply side, little evidence much of copper, oil, lumber, iron ore, semi conductors etc. etc. under any pressure.

    The throw in $15 minimum wage and Biden multi-trillion infrastructure plan.

    I am not convinced inflation is going to reset as quick as the Fed says. And interestingly they wheeled out one on their presidents yesterday saying that there network of agents where reporting inflationary pressures and that inflation may persist above 2% throughout 2022. A subtle but noticeable change in tone.

  39. #6739
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Ok, no extrapolation. Month on month US CPI up, up, up.

    Dec = 0.2%
    Jan = 0.3%
    Feb = 0.4%
    Mar = 0.6%
    Apr = 0.8%

    I appreciate you probably know more on this topic, but as with the March 2020 not everything is rational.

    Psychological effects of inflation can feed on itself, significantly increasing the demand side of the equation, even if supply side starts to sorts itself out. Buy now as it will only be more expensive next month/year mentality.

    Even on the supply side, little evidence much of copper, oil, lumber, iron ore, semi conductors etc. etc. under any pressure.

    The throw in $15 minimum wage and Biden multi-trillion infrastructure plan.

    I am not convinced inflation is going to reset as quick as the Fed says. And interestingly they wheeled out one on their presidents yesterday saying that there network of agents where reporting inflationary pressures and that inflation may persist above 2% throughout 2022. A subtle but noticeable change in tone.
    Yes, but 2% until 2022 isn't exactly Zimbabwe. For many years their actual inflation target was higher than that.

    There are shortages in the system, but they can and will be resolved.

    Having said that, I have gone short at 4210 S&P, not yet convinced and only a half position.
    #plantpot

  40. #6740
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    30 years of CPI data. Can you see Weimar? I cannot.


    #plantpot

  41. #6741
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Also closing my short, chance of a rally if we manage to climb a bit over the next hour. Otherwise will reinstate short.
    #plantpot

  42. #6742

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    30 years of CPI data. Can you see Weimar? I cannot.


    Interestingly Weimar inflation was fairly benign between 1914-18 and 1920-21 and the Mark had strength over the Dollar as the US were in recessionary pain. Apparently by 1920 the German economy was the envy of the world.

    This is despite printing on an enormous scale for 7 years since 1914 to pay for the reparations.

    Inflation only went parabolic in 1922-23, 8 year after money printing started.

    Michael Burry has compared the current money printing in the US to Weimar, where you replace reparations of war with Covid. But, what does he know.

    Obviously can never be the scale of Weimar, but the US only has to get to 5% sustained inflation and they are toast.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

  43. #6743
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post

    Obviously can never be the scale of Weimar, but the US only has to get to 5% sustained inflation and they are toast.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    Why are 5% so problematic? I remember double-digit inflation from the 80s and a couple of years above 5% at the end of the 80s and beginning of the 90s.

    Considering their debt levels, a bit of inflation would help a lot.
    #plantpot

  44. #6744
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Why are 5% so problematic? I remember double-digit inflation from the 80s and a couple of years above 5% at the end of the 80s and beginning of the 90s.

    Considering their debt levels, a bit of inflation would help a lot.
    Bad days those. I remember my mortgage interest rate hitting 15% under John Major. I was using 80% of my take home pay at that time just to pay the mortgage. Kids today with sod all percent don't know they are born.

  45. #6745
    Quote Originally Posted by Wallasey Runner View Post
    Bad days those. I remember my mortgage interest rate hitting 15% under John Major. I was using 80% of my take home pay at that time just to pay the mortgage. Kids today with sod all percent don't know they are born.
    15.3 to be exact ,I remember it well

    Bought a house for 35k, had 50 quid a week left after mortgage the lost 3k on it

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

  46. #6746

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Why are 5% so problematic? I remember double-digit inflation from the 80s and a couple of years above 5% at the end of the 80s and beginning of the 90s.

    Considering their debt levels, a bit of inflation would help a lot.
    But in the 80s the equivalent of multi-trillion money printing was not going on. Plus stock markets and house prices reflected the interest rates at the time. Try being a home owner in the U.K. in the early 90s if you were not repossessed.

    The FED has a mandate to sustain an average of 2% inflation. 5% average inflation would result in QT and interest rates rises and increase in bond yields.

    Stock market and housing market would implode as everything is currently propped up on almost free unlimited money.

    A 1% increase in interest rates correlates with a 10% fall in house prices based on affordability.

    Another interesting statistic is that if bond yields where to rise to 5%, the US government would spend 30% of GDP on interest payments. Or monetise the debt and then it truly would be game over.

  47. #6747
    Quote Originally Posted by Wallasey Runner View Post
    Bad days those. I remember my mortgage interest rate hitting 15% under John Major. I was using 80% of my take home pay at that time just to pay the mortgage. Kids today with sod all percent don't know they are born.
    That’s crazy. Mine is 1.57%.

  48. #6748
    Grand Master Wallasey Runner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin Case View Post
    That’s crazy. Mine is 1.57%.
    That's why he didn't get re-elected. 11 years of Thatcher didn't really affect me, but the minute Major got in he hurt people in their pockets which as we know is a very unwise thing for a politician to do.

  49. #6749
    Quote Originally Posted by Justin Case View Post
    That’s crazy. Mine is 1.57%.
    For all you youngsters who only ever think that interest rates the stock market and house prices only go one way.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

  50. #6750
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin Case View Post
    That’s crazy. Mine is 1.57%.
    In 1974 we qualified for the "employee" 6% 30-year fixed rate because my first wife worked at a Savings & Loan. We thought we'd died and gone to heaven!

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