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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #5551
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    My Tesla puts are up >60% today.
    What is the difference between a put and short ... or more importantly why choose one over the other?

    I guess with the put you only risk the premium where as with the short the losses are unlimited ...??

  2. #5552
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    What is the difference between a put and short ... or more importantly why choose one over the other?

    I guess with the put you only risk the premium where as with the short the losses are unlimited ...??
    ^ Yes.

    With a put I can take a much bigger position without risking to lose the farm.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  3. #5553
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    A huge £9m trade in one go only just shown up on the trade list, but seems to have been placed at 09.44 this morning.

    Odd that they bought at today’s absolute high.

    Maybe it’s actually a sell?

    They often get listed incorrectly, buys and sells.



  4. #5554
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Wow I've been so busy today. First chance I've had to look at the portfolio. I'd cleverly minimised my trackers and friday PM had pumped into SMT, ARB and MSTR.

    Bitcoin down 10% isn't helping but I guess It'll be back up soon enough.

    Just checking portfolio value change;

    Bugger.....

  5. #5555
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    A huge £9m trade in one go only just shown up on the trade list, but seems to have been placed at 09.44 this morning.

    Odd that they bought at today’s absolute high.

    Maybe it’s actually a sell?

    They often get listed incorrectly, buys and sells.


    Any buy is also a sell. One side's buy is the other side's sell. There is no magic counterpart which absorbs all the deals.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  6. #5556
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    OK, most of their funds cannot invest at all into Tesla because their investment mandate doesn't allow (Bond funds, UK, Asia, China, Income, EM funds etc.).

    Here are those where Tesla is an eligible investment. In all but two funds Tesla is by far the biggest position.


    Significantly reduced position across most funds by end of Jan, don't know the precise position today

  7. #5557
    Master ~dadam02~'s Avatar
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    TSLA tanking.

  8. #5558
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  9. #5559
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    TSLA tanking.
    Breaks my heart, I am notional $700,000 short their stock.


    Last edited by Raffe; 22nd February 2021 at 22:36.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  10. #5560
    Master ~dadam02~'s Avatar
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    Love that!

    Edit: man maths, is that 10 puts?
    Last edited by ~dadam02~; 22nd February 2021 at 22:41.

  11. #5561
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Love that!

    Edit: man maths, is that 10 puts?
    Yep, was close to buying some more this morning. Damnit.

    If you haven't heard of the vomiting camel, read this.

  12. #5562
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Yep, was close to buying some more this morning. Damnit.

    If you haven't heard of the vomiting camel, read this.
    For any other stock this would be serious but this just looks minor compared to the monumental over valuation.

    What’s the “correct” value? $100?

  13. #5563
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Have a look at ARK Invest. Their funds are not only full of Tesla but also all of the other crowded trades. And what's best: they are ETFs, publishing their holdings and trades on a daily basis. So easy to frontrun and squeeze on the way down.

    https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/the-bear-cave-53 (scroll down to headline: Could ARK Invest Blow Up?)
    Ahem. ARK getting killed today.

    Everybody knows what they own, retail investors are selling their funds, making ARK a forced seller in the names which everybody knows they will sell. Big accounts and hedge funds are frontrunning them, heavily selling their core holdings. In a way poetic justice, as the same happened on the way up when all sorts of accounts were buying their holdings.

    https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/stat...45932681846784

  14. #5564
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    For any other stock this would be serious but this just looks minor compared to the monumental over valuation.

    What’s the “correct” value? $100?
    Somebody I follow on Twitter wrote today that if we applied the same EV/sales as Toyota, Tesla should trade at $40.

  15. #5565
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Woodford being involved in Acacia is...slightly worrying. Their portfolio looks interesting though, I will definitely explore further.

  16. #5566
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bondurant View Post
    Woodford being involved in Acacia is...slightly worrying. Their portfolio looks interesting though, I will definitely explore further.
    Not even two years ago he was still walking on water and now every stock he is buying becomes tainted?

  17. #5567
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    I doubt if he'll ever regain the trust he lost; he did lose people rather a lot of money after all. Though he was enabled in this by crappy oversight, and HL didn't really cover themselves in glory either.

  18. #5568
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Closing half of my SP500 short here.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  19. #5569
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Closing half of my SP500 short here.
    That gives me hope that we're not about to see another horrible day like yesterday!

  20. #5570
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    That gives me hope that we're not about to see another horrible day like yesterday!
    Tesla EUR 573 = $ 697 in German trading. 45 minutes until US pre-market opens.

  21. #5571
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Puking camels wherever I look:


  22. #5572
    Is Tesla the modern day Cisco?

  23. #5573
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin Case View Post
    Is Tesla the modern day Cisco?
    Are you the modern day -Ally-? Or are you more like DA56? Or maybe closer to benji053?

  24. #5574
    CINE looking good to become another double-bagger for me, long before I thought it would.

  25. #5575
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  26. #5576
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Are you the modern day -Ally-? Or are you more like DA56? Or maybe closer to benji053?
    I'm beginning to suspect you may be on ignore Raffe :-)

  27. #5577
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    Travel based stock doing well, hopefully the rise continues as we break out of lockdown and start losing our financial minds booking up the Costa’s..

  28. #5578
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    I'm beginning to suspect you may be on ignore Raffe :-)
    I don't think so. He simply thinks that I will go away.

  29. #5579
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    Am I missing something on airline stocks, which feel like a trap to me. Yes the world is beginning to turn again, albeit slowly, but theres no guarantee we'll be flying again in numbers at all is there? Talk of vaccine passports, restrictions on foreign travel etc. At least this year looks pretty ominoua, and this is from someone who has a 2 week summer holiday abroad booked but not feeling confident it will go ahead.

  30. #5580
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Am I missing something on airline stocks, which feel like a trap to me. Yes the world is beginning to turn again, albeit slowly, but theres no guarantee we'll be flying again in numbers at all is there? Talk of vaccine passports, restrictions on foreign travel etc. At least this year looks pretty ominoua, and this is from someone who has a 2 week summer holiday abroad booked but not feeling confident it will go ahead.
    Being a TUI stock owner I’m hoping for good rises, but with Europe being quite far behind in the vaccine rollout I’m not sure Europe’s beaches will be open, the French are not helping with their anti vax society..

  31. #5581
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I bought Argo in good faith expecting to go to the moon. Who can I sue?

    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

  32. #5582
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Closing half of my SP500 short here.
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    That gives me hope that we're not about to see another horrible day like yesterday!
    Looks like that wasn't the best choice, BTC and TSLA weakness spilling over into the real world. This could become ugly, but still not the main scenario.

  33. #5583
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Am I missing something on airline stocks, which feel like a trap to me. Yes the world is beginning to turn again, albeit slowly, but theres no guarantee we'll be flying again in numbers at all is there? Talk of vaccine passports, restrictions on foreign travel etc. At least this year looks pretty ominoua, and this is from someone who has a 2 week summer holiday abroad booked but not feeling confident it will go ahead.
    Could be 2 or 3 years if ever before the sky's are full of planes again I think...long haul business travellers are gone and very likely that's never coming back in the same numbers, which'll make long haul dearer for the rest so fewer will be able to afford to do it.
    Speaking selfishly, it'd be for the best I think if everyone avoids the beaches in Europe this year.
    Last edited by Passenger; 23rd February 2021 at 10:24.

  34. #5584
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Could be 2 or 3 years if ever before the sky's are full of planes again I think...long haul business travellers are gone and very likely that's never coming back in the same numbers, which'll make long haul dearer for the rest so fewer will be able to afford to do it.
    Speaking selfishly, it'd be for the best I think if everyone avoids the beaches in Europe this year.
    I wouldn't be so sure about airline business changing forever. We thought the same after 9/11 but then came the biggest expansion ever.

  35. #5585
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    DAX is proving barbers don't need to be open for you to get a haircut. The farm is willing to shear you like a sheep.

  36. #5586
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I wouldn't be so sure about airline business changing forever. We thought the same after 9/11 but then came the biggest expansion ever.
    I'm not exactly sure, just offering an opinion though you're right of course about post 911. Very different events, time scales and consequences to be fair though. Also now and going forwards theres' the growing awareness of climate crisis/ human impact upon the planet, not so much 20 years ago, which could weigh upon attitudes, individual, political, corporate... once we finally get beyond this immediate covid malarky.

    Mind you I've no interest in airline stawks so makes no difference to me in that sense.

    Jeez 20th anniversary of 911 in September...can still remember that morning, worked in Philly then, advised to go home by the Mayor later in the day because they thought there might be another plane possibly going to come down on the Liberty Bell, Centre City finance district.
    Last edited by Passenger; 23rd February 2021 at 11:01.

  37. #5587
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    I'm not exactly sure, just offering an opinion though you're right of course about post 911. Very different events, time scales and consequences to be fair though. Also now and going forwards theres' the growing awareness of climate crisis/ human impact upon the planet, not so much 20 years ago, which could weigh upon attitudes, individual, political, corporate... once we finally get beyond this immediate covid malarky.

    Mind you I've no interest in airline stawks so makes no difference to me in that sense.

    Jeez 20th anniversary of 911 in September...can still remember that morning, worked in Philly then, advised to go home by the Mayor later in the day because they thought there might be another plane possibly going to come down on the Liberty Bell or Centre City.
    Same here, I hope that mankind does reduce the pointless flying - but wouldn't bet on it.

    No way I will ever invest into airlines, a business model I want to fail given their climate destruction.

  38. #5588
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I wouldn't be so sure about airline business changing forever. We thought the same after 9/11 but then came the biggest expansion ever.
    In the 9/11 era there wasn't Zoom, I think online meetings will kill a lot of business flights although most of the business flights were jolly's anyway!

  39. #5589
    Master ~dadam02~'s Avatar
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    Tesla getting smashed again today, my 3STS position is circa 30% up and life is pretty darn sweet again.

  40. #5590
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    In the 9/11 era there wasn't Zoom, I think online meetings will kill a lot of business flights although most of the business flights were jolly's anyway!
    Oi it was only 20 year ago so hardly a different era. lolz.

  41. #5591
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Some help please.


    Pulling my hair out here.


    Have been trying to sell a large proportion of my SMT shares this morning and just can't get a quote at all on HL.


    Initially I was trying to sell about £200k worth, but have since tried to sell as little as £5000 worth and still no quote.



    I appreciate the obvious answer is "No one wants to buy them when the price is tanking".....but I always assumed that with huge funds of this size, there would be a shorter or someone predicting the bottom who would buy?


    Or is HL just playing silly buggers??


    I started trying to sell when it was about 2% down and it's now 6% down, so that's cost me another £8k. Ouch.
    You can't sell funds intraday like an equity, at least not that I know of. You do a sell order and a couple of days later (normally), it settles, once the fund manager gets prices for all the equities in the fund, and then you will know what you got out at.

  42. #5592
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bondurant View Post
    You can't sell funds intraday like an equity, at least not that I know of. You do a sell order and a couple of days later (normally), it settles, once the fund manager gets prices for all the equities in the fund, and then you will know what you got out at.
    SMT is an ETF. It trades like a share.

  43. #5593
    Quote Originally Posted by Bondurant View Post
    You can't sell funds intraday like an equity, at least not that I know of. You do a sell order and a couple of days later (normally), it settles, once the fund manager gets prices for all the equities in the fund, and then you will know what you got out at.
    Scottish Mortgage INVESTMENT TRUST.

  44. #5594
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Oi it was only 20 year ago so hardly a different era. lolz.
    Well I felt a lot better at 27 than I do at 47 so 20 years is a lot to me

  45. #5595
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    SMT is an ETF. It trades like a share.
    Soz...guilty of assumption

  46. #5596
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    In the 9/11 era there wasn't Zoom, I think online meetings will kill a lot of business flights although most of the business flights were jolly's anyway!
    We had Tandberg systems installed all over the organisation after 9/11. WebEx also existed at the time.

  47. #5597
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Well I felt a lot better at 27 than I do at 47 so 20 years is a lot to me
    Ha ain't that the truth...at gulp 50 later this year I'm not ready to admit/accept I've lived through era's...mind the pace of this nonsense/crises/ change only keeps increasing, gotta stay young at heart.

  48. #5598
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Sold SP500 again @ 3,853, trimming some SPAC and strategic positions. Not selling anything completely.

    Also got a fill on a $8.60 buy order for KOPN a little earlier (traded at $12.55 yesterday morning). Crazy world.

    If Tesla and BTC get hit hard by the incoming US traders this could become really ugly.

  49. #5599
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Same here, I hope that mankind does reduce the pointless flying - but wouldn't bet on it.

    No way I will ever invest into airlines, a business model I want to fail given their climate destruction.
    I’ve come to think that it’s impossible to make money out of physical networks. Transport networks, telecomms networks, broadcast networks... We all rely on them and some people make money but the margins always seem to evaporate over time and the capital investment and innovation needed is overwhelming.

  50. #5600
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    I bought a little INO just to join in the fun and whilst it's gone down of late I'm happy to hold for the long term if needs be. Just wondered if the view on this stock had changed at all?

    The majority of my SIPP is in managed funds and changes rarely, although I did convert a significant percentage to cash last year for a few months but reinvested when the anticipated big crash didn't happen. Glad I did but I missed out on c5% growth as a result.

    I self invest a small amount from time to time, mainly with well established stocks like Lloyds, Rolls Royce etc primarily because I enjoy the risk/reward involved but the last 3 stocks I've held for several months have only returned to profit in the last week so I won't be giving up the day job just yet!

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