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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #1851
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Folk are typically gambling on the stock market with hundreds or low thousands of pounds. Usually spare money they can afford to lose.

    Even if you missed out on the 40% return on let us say £10k potential investment, that is still only a £4K upside you have missed out on. And while very good money, it is hardly life changing. It will buy you a new ceramic seamaster, rather than helping you to retire early.

    Missing out on generational life changing investments is when you sold all your pension and investment funds at the top of the market, and then reinvested them all back in at the bottom. Who was brave enough to cash in their whole portfolio in February prior to Covid when the markets where totally benign? Nobody.

    As always, hindsight is a wonderful thing
    Not quite nobody. A friend of mine is a senior NHS planner/admin and he sold everything up at the end Feb when he saw the writing on the wall Re Covid, unfortunately I didn't follow suit and I thought he was panicking unduly. Not sure if he has piled back in yet. He did admit that he felt silly for a few weeks until the crash actually happened.

  2. #1852
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    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quote Originally Posted by Boss13 View Post
    So anybody brave enough to put some cash into oil as per something like the below? All sorts of risks at the moment of course and they seem to have issued some guidance warning about this. Raffe's experience a prime example. But surely this has got to recover in the medium term. Thoughts?
    WISDOMTREE WTI CRUDE OIL (CRUD)
    I’d be really keen to hear experienced people’s thoughts on this too. I don’t mind saying I’ve got money in this specifically and atm it did well for me before, sold, bought back in with some more cash this time and it’s doing well so far.

    Edit: I meant to add, my thoughts on this were similar to yours; I’d expect that it would recover sooner or later as (aside from global issues between countries) things will still remain with regards to oil needs. We won’t come out of this and suddenly all drive electric, etc. Although I prob wouldn’t leave the same money in it long-term even with good news and easing boosts it makes a nice little bit - assuming it doesn’t then get impacted by some other daft bit of negative news I guess.


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    Last edited by Chr1stof; 6th June 2020 at 13:47.

  3. #1853
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    CRUD was discussed earlier in this thread. I can’t recall specifics but certainly remember, after Raffe explained a few things, that it was one to avoid and one that can eat your capital up.

    Is it geared?

  4. #1854
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    CRUD was discussed earlier in this thread. I can’t recall specifics but certainly remember, after Raffe explained a few things, that it was one to avoid and one that can eat your capital up.

    Is it geared?
    I don’t actually know what “geared” means?

    Thanks, I’ll scan back as must’ve missed it from earlier before somehow.


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  5. #1855
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    When I look at today’s valuations I don’t get it.

    When I buy a share I am buying into the future profits of that organisation. I’m expecting dividends or growth or a bit of both.

    Today’s valuations seem to have completely decoupled from the fundamentals of the businesses. The valuations are so long range or optimistic I just don’t see the value.

    It’s as if the underlying business is almost irrelevant and that the share has almost become like a digital currency in which people store capital and trade. And they know if things get rocky central banks will pump in liquidity.

    Many commentators were calling the markets overvalued before COVID 19; today it seems many are now taking this view yet the markets march onwards.

    Are we witnessing the inflation of a bubble?
    Last edited by Montello; 6th June 2020 at 14:48.

  6. #1856
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    CRUD was discussed earlier in this thread. I can’t recall specifics but certainly remember, after Raffe explained a few things, that it was one to avoid and one that can eat your capital up.

    Is it geared?
    It is not geared. I think there are certain trackers that are geared, which means if the price doubles for example, your tracker will x4 (if it is geared x2). That is how I understand it, but I am just starting to learn about this and it is a minefield. I think that Raffe's situation was a little different as he may have been investing in the futures. I did read it at the time, but cannot quite recall now.

    Either way, buying the tracker I mentioned, I would like to think, even with another fall potential to 25-30, the price will ultimately recover. I am prepared to wait 6 months if that is what it takes. Interested on further thoughts.

  7. #1857
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boss13 View Post
    It is not geared. I think there are certain trackers that are geared, which means if the price doubles for example, your tracker will x4 (if it is geared x2). That is how I understand it, but I am just starting to learn about this and it is a minefield. I think that Raffe's situation was a little different as he may have been investing in the futures. I did read it at the time, but cannot quite recall now.

    Either way, buying the tracker I mentioned, I would like to think, even with another fall potential to 25-30, the price will ultimately recover. I am prepared to wait 6 months if that is what it takes. Interested on further thoughts.
    I have written a general warning in regard to all geared or leveraged investment products, whether funds or certificates. They are poison for your portfolio and will systematically underperform.

    CRUD.L is another story, it is investing in oil and the headwind for investors lies in the abhorrent storage costs for oil, which the fund will experience in form of futures contango.

    I have posted a few times about both in this very thread:


    Oil funds:


    Leveraged funds:



    If you want to commit financial suicide, just buy a leveraged oil fund. Guaranteed portfolio destruction.

  8. #1858
    As per earlier posters, very simple advice avoid leverage. It should not be undertaken unless you are a professional trader (and even then...)

  9. #1859
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    CNN/Business sees a return of U.S. investor sentiment to "Greed."


    https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/inves...dex/index.html




  10. #1860
    Greed is good right?

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  11. #1861
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Greed is good right?

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    Yes. Up until the point the music stops.

  12. #1862
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    ...on the other hand, from a more pessimistic NY Times columnist:


    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/u...ic-crisis.html

  13. #1863
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    This was a massive banking rescue plan, delivered at the front end instead of bailing out institutions.

    The government has made sure everyone has income to pay bills, at the same time requiring banks to allow deferral of pretty much every product they offer to retail and corporate customers, including banning evictions of non-paying tenants.

    Once the furlough ends and redundancy and restructuring takes place, the banks bad loans will soar, but it will be much less than if they had to ride non-payment from March on a much bigger population.

    Whichever way you look at it, markets will be under severe pressure driven by corporate performance, bad debt and economic reality

    Just a question of when


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  14. #1864
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    Quote Originally Posted by peterdo View Post
    This was a massive banking rescue plan, delivered at the front end instead of bailing out institutions.

    The government has made sure everyone has income to pay bills, at the same time requiring banks to allow deferral of pretty much every product they offer to retail and corporate customers, including banning evictions of non-paying tenants.

    Once the furlough ends and redundancy and restructuring takes place, the banks bad loans will soar, but it will be much less than if they had to ride non-payment from March on a much bigger population.

    Whichever way you look at it, markets will be under severe pressure driven by corporate performance, bad debt and economic reality

    Just a question of when


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    Agreed.

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  15. #1865
    Quote Originally Posted by peterdo View Post
    This was a massive banking rescue plan, delivered at the front end instead of bailing out institutions.

    The government has made sure everyone has income to pay bills, at the same time requiring banks to allow deferral of pretty much every product they offer to retail and corporate customers, including banning evictions of non-paying tenants.

    Once the furlough ends and redundancy and restructuring takes place, the banks bad loans will soar, but it will be much less than if they had to ride non-payment from March on a much bigger population.

    Whichever way you look at it, markets will be under severe pressure driven by corporate performance, bad debt and economic reality

    Just a question of when


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    I agree, but apart from the SM, where in the world can you get a return on your capital these days?

  16. #1866
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    I agree, but apart from the SM, where in the world can you get a return on your capital these days?
    Property.

  17. #1867
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Property.
    That ship has sailed.

    And the Peter franks thread is not selling it to me at the moment.

  18. #1868
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    That ship has sailed.

    And the Peter franks thread is not selling it to me at the moment.
    Being a landlord has rough patches ... but it’s still a reasonable investment.

    You do get a yield, rates vary, and your property is less susceptible to going bust and being worth zero.

    In these current times where are you going to place your capital?

    With equities as there are property is looking more attractive, and I *was* in the process of selling property which I’m now thinking I’ll hang on to.

  19. #1869
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    I’ve sold all of my property investments also, the gradual BTL purge by the Tory government on taxation combined with other factors such as building standards for green energy means it’s not worth the hassle

    The prospect of any increase in valuation in the medium term is questionable as well. I was in the process of renewing a deal on my residential property and it looks like there has been a 5% haircut to prices since Covid, as in the 2 years since I took out the mortgage, the index they use suggested a c2% increase, but I’m now 3% less

    On the plus side, if you leave it in cash, I can’t imagine inflation being a problem for a while...


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  20. #1870
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    Property is an interesting one. Yes the government has been doing everything possible to push out BTL landlords in the past few years, but I have tried to fight back, by getting better deals on the purchase price and taking solid tax advice.

    We have bought a couple of small flats in the past couple of years with strong yields (c.7-9%). I am not necessarily in it for the short term gain, but I know that there is income coming in monthly and the properties will (hopefully) not lose value in the long term, if lucky - will increase.

    Seems to work fine for now. Of course getting the right tenants is always the challenge, there is some hassle involved in initial set up and moving a tenant in. But generally, when settled things are usually fine. You do need to be picky with who you put in a property, when people call I often 'interview' them on phone to start with. Those I don't like the sound of don't get to view it. Along the road, have had a couple of bumps, but thankfully nothing drastic and a minimal level of rental loss. Recent introduction of new legislation is certainly likely to add to the fun, but nothing that cannot be dealt with.

    I guess it also depends which part of the country you are in and what the level of rental demand is. Good luck all.

  21. #1871
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boss13 View Post
    Property is an interesting one. Yes the government has been doing everything possible to push out BTL landlords in the past few years, but I have tried to fight back, by getting better deals on the purchase price and taking solid tax advice.

    We have bought a couple of small flats in the past couple of years with strong yields (c.7-9%). I am not necessarily in it for the short term gain, but I know that there is income coming in monthly and the properties will (hopefully) not lose value in the long term, if lucky - will increase.

    Seems to work fine for now. Of course getting the right tenants is always the challenge, there is some hassle involved in initial set up and moving a tenant in. But generally, when settled things are usually fine. You do need to be picky with who you put in a property, when people call I often 'interview' them on phone to start with. Those I don't like the sound of don't get to view it. Along the road, have had a couple of bumps, but thankfully nothing drastic and a minimal level of rental loss. Recent introduction of new legislation is certainly likely to add to the fun, but nothing that cannot be dealt with.

    I guess it also depends which part of the country you are in and what the level of rental demand is. Good luck all.
    Interesting. Do you have any other advice for someone looking to do the same or any other rules of thumb with tenant management etc?

    This is all coming from the perspective of someone without their own house but with a deposit to buy one. Just can't agree on where to buy or what is needed (proximity to London) so for now I'm taking the flexibility of renting.

  22. #1872
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    Quote Originally Posted by abryant64 View Post
    Interesting. Do you have any other advice for someone looking to do the same or any other rules of thumb with tenant management etc?

    This is all coming from the perspective of someone without their own house but with a deposit to buy one. Just can't agree on where to buy or what is needed (proximity to London) so for now I'm taking the flexibility of renting.
    Happy to take this to PM so as not to derail this thread. But, briefly - identifying a 'catchment' and building a relationship with several estate agents in the area has served me well personally. If you do not own a property at all, then my advice would be to get yourself a property first before worrying about BTL. Many tax advantages and mortgages are more favourable for your residential home. You can always switch it to BTL or get a 'permission to let' if you decide to move out and rent it.

    Tenant management - I have never used an agent. Posted private ads and preferred to vet the potential tenants myself. This may not suit others, just my personal preference, of course cheaper too. You do have to be careful and get the paperwork correct. Happy to answer any other questions on PM.
    Last edited by Boss13; 7th June 2020 at 21:52.

  23. #1873
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boss13 View Post

    Tenant management - I have never used an agent. Posted private ads and preferred to vet the potential tenants myself. This may not suit others, just my personal preference, of course cheaper too. You do have to be careful and get the paperwork correct.
    And don't forget about the wealth of information that people post on social media, which they may be able to hide in an interview.

    I advertise our properties exclusively through Facebook, for this very reason.

    It's helped me avoid some potentially/likely problem tenants.

  24. #1874
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boss13 View Post
    Property is an interesting one. Yes the government has been doing everything possible to push out BTL landlords in the past few years, but I have tried to fight back, by getting better deals on the purchase price and taking solid tax advice.

    We have bought a couple of small flats in the past couple of years with strong yields (c.7-9%). I am not necessarily in it for the short term gain, but I know that there is income coming in monthly and the properties will (hopefully) not lose value in the long term, if lucky - will increase.

    Seems to work fine for now. Of course getting the right tenants is always the challenge, there is some hassle involved in initial set up and moving a tenant in. But generally, when settled things are usually fine. You do need to be picky with who you put in a property, when people call I often 'interview' them on phone to start with. Those I don't like the sound of don't get to view it. Along the road, have had a couple of bumps, but thankfully nothing drastic and a minimal level of rental loss. Recent introduction of new legislation is certainly likely to add to the fun, but nothing that cannot be dealt with.

    I guess it also depends which part of the country you are in and what the level of rental demand is. Good luck all.
    Broadly speaking this represents my own practice and experience. Without doubt it's more 'work' and less sexy and fluid than 'stawks' but for myself it's something I can understand and provided you maintain an eye on things it mostly, ticks along quite nicely.

  25. #1875
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    Boy, do I feel stupid!

    I've been feeling so smart about my portfolio sell-off back in February when the Dow was still in the high 28's, now I'm looking to BUY today, right? So, first thing I do is I check the prices of the six individual stocks I was holding back then. Four of the six are trading above, or way above what I sold them for in February. D'oh!

    So instead, I put in buy orders for two 'new' stocks, plus five high-performing mutual funds I was in before, that continue to do well. Maybe if I hadn't been bogged down with my prostate surgery I would have monitored things more closely.

  26. #1876
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Boy, do I feel stupid!

    I've been feeling so smart about my portfolio sell-off back in February when the Dow was still in the high 28's, now I'm looking to BUY today, right? So, first thing I do is I check the prices of the six individual stocks I was holding back then. Four of the six are trading above, or way above what I sold them for in February. D'oh!

    So instead, I put in buy orders for two 'new' stocks, plus five high-performing mutual funds I was in before, that continue to do well. Maybe if I hadn't been bogged down with my prostate surgery I would have monitored things more closely.
    #FOMO

    Never a good reason to buy (or sell).

  27. #1877
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Boy, do I feel stupid!

    I've been feeling so smart about my portfolio sell-off back in February when the Dow was still in the high 28's, now I'm looking to BUY today, right? So, first thing I do is I check the prices of the six individual stocks I was holding back then. Four of the six are trading above, or way above what I sold them for in February. D'oh!

    So instead, I put in buy orders for two 'new' stocks, plus five high-performing mutual funds I was in before, that continue to do well. Maybe if I hadn't been bogged down with my prostate surgery I would have monitored things more closely.
    What’s the rush now? I can’t see much upside from here but there seems plenty of downside.

    I’m waiting for the Q2 data to settle in.

  28. #1878
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    What’s the rush now? I can’t see much upside from here but there seems plenty of downside.
    A lot of financial and general news reading I've done over the weekend leads me to believe the market is headed up, and I've been sitting on mostly cash.

  29. #1879
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    More amazing increases this morning

    British Airways
    EasyJet
    Aston Martin
    Lloyds

    Greed is really taking hold

  30. #1880
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    A lot of financial and general news reading I've done over the weekend leads me to believe the market is headed up, and I've been sitting on mostly cash.
    Well my bearish stance seems consistently wrong so probably best to ignore me.

  31. #1881
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    More amazing increases this morning

    British Airways
    EasyJet
    Aston Martin
    Lloyds

    Greed is really taking hold
    Just cannot make sense of it!

  32. #1882
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boss13 View Post
    Just cannot make sense of it!
    e.g BA have a row with HMG and their share price goes up 10%

  33. #1883
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    I sold Rolls Royce on Friday at 3.48 feeling confident they would go down, I kept my profits in shares for the long term so only sold my initial investment, today - just touched £4.00 so over 50p per share rise in 24 hours of trading, its an airline based industry that is so say in the doldrums!

    Being out of the market completely and holding cash is either a very wise move or you'll maybe look back in regret, who knows?

    Was thinking too, the last 6 months must have been one of the craziest in human history, especially for us in Europe, UK official came out the EU in January, CV kicked in around March time depending on what country your in and now we have race riots/protesting, no wonder the markets are bonkers!!

  34. #1884
    BP announce 10,000 job cuts



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  35. #1885
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    e.g BA have a row with HMG and their share price goes up 10%
    Technically it's IAG not BA's share price going up.

  36. #1886
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    Interesting site: https://robintrack.net/

    They are analysing the trading habits of small investors; for many stocks there is an explosive inflow of new retail investors since March/April - which coincides with the distribution of the US stimulus checks. Many of those checks seem to have gone right into the fallen angels of the stock markets. Compare the number of investors (green line) with the price development (pink line):

    American Airlines:


    Until February, a stable 10,000 or so small retail investors - now 600,000

    Delta Airlines:


    Same, from 15k to 550k investors

    Carnival Cruises:



    Amazing.

  37. #1887
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    Unbeknown to them, theyre just delaying the drop. Shame they didn't use their Stimulus Checks better.

  38. #1888
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    Yes, definitely not a good sign when the professionals all pull out and the amateurs start buying.

  39. #1889
    Quote Originally Posted by Christian View Post
    Yes, definitely not a good sign when the professionals all pull out and the amateurs start buying.
    This very much seems to be the case and it is becoming more transparent now we have data over the last few months to corroborate the theory. It very much seems a delay until q2 numbers are available.

    Thanks Raffe as well for that analysis.

  40. #1890
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    Hi

    I've decided to move to an all cash position.

    Market looks perfectly set for a drop !

    Best Neil

  41. #1891
    DOW rally continues

    Only WW3 an alien invasion or a pandemic can stop this

    Oh hold on ....

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  42. #1892
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Amazing.
    Your piece a few days ago on Hertz springs to mind. Will look exactly the same no doubt.

  43. #1893
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    The sheep are buying equities from the wolves.

  44. #1894
    When I first set up the SIPP I was spitting regarding the fees , for both a financial advisor and the fund itself

    Now i don't begrudge them anything

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  45. #1895
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    With helicopter, funny money.

  46. #1896
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    The sheep are buying equities from the wolves.
    I take it that broadly the sheep are individuals, consumers whereas the wolves are funds, institutions dumping?

    Is the aggregate volume of shares and stocks being traded on any day about the same, or more or less than pre-CV?


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  47. #1897
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Boy, do I feel stupid!

    I've been feeling so smart about my portfolio sell-off back in February when the Dow was still in the high 28's, now I'm looking to BUY today, right? So, first thing I do is I check the prices of the six individual stocks I was holding back then. Four of the six are trading above, or way above what I sold them for in February. D'oh!

    So instead, I put in buy orders for two 'new' stocks, plus five high-performing mutual funds I was in before, that continue to do well. Maybe if I hadn't been bogged down with my prostate surgery I would have monitored things more closely.
    You are being hard on yourself, this market is not behaving to any sort of historical norms. In my opinion, these heights are on borrowed time, over the longer term you can’t outrun the fundamentals -

    E.g

    Poor earnings, lower dividends, often lower share price

    Amongst many other things. Let’s see how the market is once we see Q2 results and people see the world won’t magically go back to how it was pre-Covid.

    God I’m such a bear now days..


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  48. #1898
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Interesting site: https://robintrack.net/

    They are analysing the trading habits of small investors; for many stocks there is an explosive inflow of new retail investors since March/April - which coincides with the distribution of the US stimulus checks. Many of those checks seem to have gone right into the fallen angels of the stock markets.
    I love it when there is some good data to perfectly tell the story!


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  49. #1899
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Interesting site: https://robintrack.net/

    They are analysing the trading habits of small investors; for many stocks there is an explosive inflow of new retail investors since March/April - which coincides with the distribution of the US stimulus checks. Many of those checks seem to have gone right into the fallen angels of the stock markets. Compare the number of investors (green line) with the price development (pink line):

    American Airlines:


    Until February, a stable 10,000 or so small retail investors - now 600,000

    Delta Airlines:


    Same, from 15k to 550k investors

    Carnival Cruises:



    Amazing.
    Frightening, but how valid is that as it only tracks users of the Robinhood platform.

    Have they done something to gain many users in this period? How does this look on the more mainstream platforms?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Frightening, but how valid is that as it only tracks users of the Robinhood platform.

    Have they done something to gain many users in this period? How does this look on the more mainstream platforms?
    The question is not what they have done, but where did the inflow come from? No sensible explanation in the midst of a pandemic/recession other than people who are cashing in their stimulus checks.

    Don't think any other platform releases the data (remember if the service is free, you are the product).

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