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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #6551
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Sorry to bring the excitement down a good few notches! I can’t keep up with some of the risk taking on here.

    Just bought £1k in each of the following 10 defensive, relatively high divi companies that haven’t yet done that well out of the SM boom. All relative of course. Intention is to hold long term.

    Tesco
    GSK
    National Grid
    Reckitt Bensicker
    Diageo
    Morrisons
    Unilever
    HSBC
    Direct Line
    SSE

    Would it not have been similar but much cheaper to buy a FTSE100 tracker? No stamp duty and 10 times less trading fees?

  2. #6552
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Would it not have been similar but much cheaper to buy a FTSE100 tracker? No stamp duty and 10 times less trading fees?
    Exactly. If you are willing to diversify your return potential away, you might as well make sure you do the same with your risk. The fee and tax aspect is just on top.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  3. #6553

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Would it not have been similar but much cheaper to buy a FTSE100 tracker? No stamp duty and 10 times less trading fees?
    I just started using Freetrade, and it has no commission trades, so it is only the 0.5% stamp duty and the spread. Platform cost for stocks/funds is £3 per month for ISAs, no matter how much the ISA value. No additional cost for general dealing accounts.

    I’m going to ditch my AJ Bell account now as having used Freetrade today I really like it, and got fed up paying £10 commission for every trade on AJ Bell. In the process of transferring my and my wife’s ISAs.

    If I am holding the shares for the long term, then it makes much more sense to pay the one off 0.5% stamp than 0.1-0.2% year after year with an ETF. Although you can still buy plenty of ETFs through Freetrade at lower platform cost.

    I can create my own ETF equivalent, and have more fun doing it. There are certain stocks in the FTSE I don’t want in my portfolio, hence another reason to avoid ETF. It allows me to buy stocks in the 250 and 350 and mix and match.

    Edit - my missus picked 5 shares and I picked 5 shares so we are having a bit a a competition to make it more interesting.
    Last edited by noTAGlove; 16th April 2021 at 17:23.

  4. #6554
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Closed my short futures positions yesterday and then sold more higher. I am now very short 4,156 S&P and 14,009 Nasdaq. We shall see where that gets me today.

    TZLA: bought a small position yesterday before the close, $736 average. Still looking for a good push before the options expiry today, above $750 definitely. It can fall into the abyss then from next week, I have a massive put position if it does.
    Hmm. Lots of buying in SP and NASDAQ. I wonder where this will go.

    TZLA very weak after the opening, and then it suddenly ripped. As expected, but unfortunately peaked half a dollar below my first sell order for half of my position $749.90. Grrrrrrhhhh.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  5. #6555
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    I've just invested my wife's and my ISA Allowance in a BMW M4 with change - I'm sick of all this "investment" roulette

  6. #6556
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    Seems like the magic TZLA rally won't happen today. Selling my position here for a $1 gain.*

    Looking at the open interest which is expiring worthless in a few minutes, wow - that must hurt for some players. Serves them right (still hurting about the $100k profit they stole from me six weeks ago).

    SP and Naz closing on all-time highs - I will leave my positions on over the weekend.


    *while I was typing this, it advanced by $2 - seems I am a little behind the curve here. Whatever, I am out.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  7. #6557

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Gold is starting to look very attractive again. Real yields on the dollar have recently turned negative at -1%, if you take 10 year treasury yield at 1.6% and minus March 2021 CPI at 2.6%.

    Negative yields are great for gold and it is currently up around 6% from the March lows, and some miners are doing a lot better.

    Next months CPI is forecasted to be a lot higher especially as it takes into the effect of the nadir of April 2020. Looks like gold and precious metals could be going higher.

    If the spread between CPI and treasuries widens going forward, gold will take off. And if the a Fed introduces yield curve control, it will be to the moon.

    Now I’ve got commission free trades I’m going to put £100/day into several gold miners for the next month, as I previously got burned on buying precious metals last summer and autumn so want to cost average.

  8. #6558
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Was thinking similar. Sold all my gold a couple of months back but have held onto all my silver which I bought last August during the very low point.


    Not really considered miners, which ones are you thinking look the most investable, currently?

  9. #6559

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Not really considered miners, which ones are you thinking look the most investable, currently?
    Well the great man himself Warren Buffett briefly invested in Barrick last summer presumably pulling out his investment when the yield on the dollar turned positive.

    So if it is good for Warren it is good for me.

    Barrick’s shares peaked at $30 last August when gold was $2000/oz, and hit a low of $18 last month when gold was under $1700/oz.

    Currently the shares are just over $22 at $1780/oz. So, if, you do expect gold to rise to $2000+/oz, you could expect 35% return on share price over the next few months.

    A big IF of course and obviously a risk. I can’t see gold going lower for at least the next 3 month while CPIs print higher, unless there is a massive take off in treasury yields which won’t be allow to happens as it would collapse the whole house of cards.

  10. #6560
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    Did anyone manage to get in on ARB at 125p this morning?

    #whennasdaqlambo

  11. #6561
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Did anyone manage to get in on ARB at 125p this morning?

    #whennasdaqlambo
    Only a grand total of £326,966 worth of stock traded below 150p, of which £4,570 below 130p.
    Last edited by Raffe; 19th April 2021 at 14:13.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  12. #6562
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    I've just invested my wife's and my ISA Allowance in a BMW M4 with change - I'm sick of all this "investment" roulette
    Good man, hitting the loud peddle is much more enjoyable than watch a few numbers go up and down - enjoy that M..

  13. #6563
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Well the great man himself Warren Buffett briefly invested in Barrick last summer presumably pulling out his investment when the yield on the dollar turned positive.

    So if it is good for Warren it is good for me.

    Barrick’s shares peaked at $30 last August when gold was $2000/oz, and hit a low of $18 last month when gold was under $1700/oz.

    Currently the shares are just over $22 at $1780/oz. So, if, you do expect gold to rise to $2000+/oz, you could expect 35% return on share price over the next few months.

    A big IF of course and obviously a risk. I can’t see gold going lower for at least the next 3 month while CPIs print higher, unless there is a massive take off in treasury yields which won’t be allow to happens as it would collapse the whole house of cards.
    Brilliant tip. Thanks.

  14. #6564
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Did anyone manage to get in on ARB at 125p this morning?

    #whennasdaqlambo
    I doubt anyone got at shares much below 150p this morning. Some people on the LSE forum bragging about "Laoding up ar 145p" but I call bullsh1t. I don't think it was possible unless you're a proper trader on a main system.

    Certainly not possible on HL this morning. Just got NT quotes (not that I wanted to buy any more).

  15. #6565
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Easy to buy below 150p now!

  16. #6566
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Short S&P - check
    Short NASDAQ - check
    Long EUR/USD - check
    Long TSLA puts - check

    My only position which is going sideways is long Gold futures, that is exactly where I bought it on Friday (after having been a lot higher this morning).

    I have zero other positions and feel very well positioned at the moment.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  17. #6567
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    Leading investors recommend to #BTFD:



    And since the dip has just become another 20% cheaper than when he released the video yesterday, y'all should be so happy.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  18. #6568
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    Dude needs to get out in the fresh air, go for a run, do some push ups.

  19. #6569
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Leading investors recommend to #BTFD:



    And since the dip has just become another 20% cheaper than when he released the video yesterday, y'all should be so happy.

    Who watches this kind of video on YouTube. Seems there is an army of these talking heads. None of whom have any qualifications or meaningful experience.

  20. #6570
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Who watches this kind of video on YouTube. Seems there is an army of these talking heads. None of whom have any qualifications or meaningful experience.
    But crypto, bro.

    We got enuff of experts.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  21. #6571
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    But crypto, bro.

    We got enuff of experts.
    LOL ... the whole show is mental ... I’m just wondering how long before people realise their dogecoins etc are totally without any utility or future revenue streams and as such are worthless.

    I get the store of capital etc but that’s not what’s going on. There has to be a realisation at some point and I fear that will have a knock on effect to real assets.

  22. #6572
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Who watches this kind of video on YouTube. Seems there is an army of these talking heads. None of whom have any qualifications or meaningful experience.
    You've been dancing for money. Now this could be a once in a lifetime opportunity. After that, you may end up burning down the house. Just remember that if you do manage to make a killing, there is no point in turning psycho and living the wild, wild life. Take a clean break, and don't worry about the government.


    I'll get my coat.
    'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.

  23. #6573
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saint-Just View Post
    You've been dancing for money. Now this could be a once in a lifetime opportunity. After that, you may end up burning down the house. Just remember that if you do manage to make a killing, there is no point in turning psycho and living the wild, wild life. Take a clean break, and don't worry about the government.


    I'll get my coat.
    Eh?

  24. #6574
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Eh?
    Too young, are you?

    'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.

  25. #6575
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saint-Just View Post
    Too young, are you?

    Ah, not my thing.

  26. #6576
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    I'd be ditching Airlines...

  27. #6577
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    ARB is having a good day. Finally.


    https://uk.investing.com/equities/argo-blockchain

  28. #6578
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    ARB is having a good day. Finally.


    https://uk.investing.com/equities/argo-blockchain

    Crazy week for Argo, still 15% lower than a week ago.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  29. #6579
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    Adding back some SP and Naz shorts that I trimmed yesterday (unfortunately not at the bottom, only a tiny little lower than we are now).
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  30. #6580
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Adding back some SP and Naz shorts that I trimmed yesterday (unfortunately not at the bottom, only a tiny little lower than we are now).
    This turned semi-sour during the evening. Still, refusing to close my position here, let's see what the night brings.

    On the other hand, another round of excessive call option buying in TZLA - $750 - $800 strikes with expiry on Friday (48 hours from now). I will never stop being impressed by the amount of cash being thrown at attempts to prop up the shareprice of this turd. Today alone Tesla made headlines with China cracking down on poor quality and service, German plant opening delayed due to non-compliance with German laws and lots of attention after two more deadly accidents in autopilot mode.

    But laser eyes, bro.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  31. #6581
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Closing my shorts here.

    Second time in a good week that I was short, saw BIG gains - but didn't take profit and subsequently watched market trade higher and my profits disappeared over night. Frustrating.

    #BTFD, bro. What's so difficult 'bout that?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  32. #6582
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Closing my shorts here.

    Second time in a good week that I was short, saw BIG gains - but didn't take profit and subsequently watched market trade higher and my profits disappeared over night. Frustrating.

    #BTFD, bro. What's so difficult 'bout that?
    Just brought Thea to bed and return to look at markets - WHAT?? Sold off again, just that I am out?

    Tearing my hair out as I type this.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  33. #6583
    1pm Dow went nuts what happened? US out UK into high risk covid category then 3pm UK announces 57 cases of the India double bubble covid , is that why?

  34. #6584
    A dip would be nice some time soon, have yet to make use of 21/22 LISA/ISA.

  35. #6585
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    1pm Dow went nuts what happened? US out UK into high risk covid category then 3pm UK announces 57 cases of the India double bubble covid , is that why?
    The average Dow Jones trader wouldn't know what or where the UK is.

    Trigger for the selloff was talk about a Biden plan to increase capital gains tax. I am using the term 'selloff' very lightly, after all the major indices fell by less than 1%.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  36. #6586
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    The average Dow Jones trader wouldn't know what or where the UK is.

    Trigger for the selloff was talk about a Biden plan to increase capital gains tax. I am using the term 'selloff' very lightly, after all the major indices fell by less than 1%.
    Didnt Biden announce a large raise in Corporation tax last month and the market shrugged it off and rallied ... what's the different this time?

  37. #6587
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonny View Post
    Didnt Biden announce a large raise in Corporation tax last month and the market shrugged it off and rallied ... what's the different this time?
    What are you talking about? The SP500 dropped by 0.9%.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  38. #6588
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    The bottom is falling out of cryptos. I see risk that this will spill over into the real world. Crypto stocks already under pressure: Coinbase, Microstrategy, Argo

    Reminder that my long-term price target on bitcoin is unchanged: zero.


    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  39. #6589
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Biden’s Capital Gains Tax is scaring many. Big announcement on Green policies this week in the US, at the same time as crypto mining has exploded. Miners are an easy target for a levy. Let’s see.

    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    The bottom is falling out of cryptos. I see risk that this will spill over into the real world. Crypto stocks already under pressure: Coinbase, Microstrategy, Argo

    Reminder that my long-term price target on bitcoin is unchanged: zero.
    Last edited by ryanb741; 23rd April 2021 at 10:56.

  40. #6590
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    Crypto mining has exploded? How so?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  41. #6591
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Crypto mining has exploded? How so?
    As in "more people are doing it", I think

  42. #6592
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    Quote Originally Posted by thenikjones View Post
    As in "more people are doing it", I think
    Is that so?

    I don't think so.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  43. #6593
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  44. #6594
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    Higher hash rate doesn't prove that more people are at it - I think there has been a big shift from individual coiners to institutional mining, which means that the number of coiners has gone down over time.

    Been trying to find data on that but cannot beyond the anecdotal evidence that there are more and more companies involved with mining.

    In any case, your graph does not show any explosive growth, in fact growth in hash rate seems to even trail price development (which I find surprising given the margin expansion).
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  45. #6595
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    I think that recent hash rate drop off is mainly due to power outages in China and the start of an inspection process by the Chinese authorities.





    What the hell's happened to INO? It's 25% down in the pre-market.


    I'm really not having much luck with these single stock picks. That's what I've avoided investing in single equities for the past 20 years. Should never have deviated from my passive plan. Still, things can turn positive as fast as they turn negative.


    https://uk.investing.com/equities/in...aceuticals-inc

  46. #6596
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I think that recent hash rate drop off is mainly due to power outages in China and the start of an inspection process by the Chinese authorities.





    What the hell's happened to INO? It's 25% down in the pre-market.


    I'm really not having much luck with these single stock picks. That's what I've avoided investing in single equities for the past 20 years. Should never have deviated from my passive plan. Still, things can turn positive as fast as they turn negative.


    https://uk.investing.com/equities/in...aceuticals-inc
    Bad news:

    "U.S. govt stops funding for late-stage study of Inovio's COVID-19 vaccine"

  47. #6597
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Bad news:

    "U.S. govt stops funding for late-stage study of Inovio's COVID-19 vaccine"
    Ouch. I cancel Lambo order.

  48. #6598
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    What are you talking about? The SP500 dropped by 0.9%.
    A few weeks back Biden announced a large rise in corporation taxation, the market at the current point doesn't seem that bothered by news!
    https://www.ft.com/content/49290545-...9-4673ad762002

  49. #6599
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I think that recent hash rate drop off is mainly due to power outages in China and the start of an inspection process by the Chinese authorities.





    What the hell's happened to INO? It's 25% down in the pre-market.


    I'm really not having much luck with these single stock picks. That's what I've avoided investing in single equities for the past 20 years. Should never have deviated from my passive plan. Still, things can turn positive as fast as they turn negative.


    https://uk.investing.com/equities/in...aceuticals-inc
    ouch just seen this, I still have my INO that I got at $15 a share, almost sold last week at $10 but have tried to forget about it hoping it would eventually go up.

  50. #6600
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    Anyone hold WOS? I'm thinking of buying in, in the hope they can crack the US market with their expansion.

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