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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #601
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Well we will see. People have short memories but I suspect this is a moment in time which will endure. I can see a different future ahead with much changed behaviour.
    We are certainly getting to live through some interesting times.
    Last edited by Passenger; 31st March 2020 at 11:09.

  2. #602
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Thanks Raffe - I read through the morningstar article - I understood a fair whack on first read, so it's written well! The compounding effect is alarming.

  3. #603
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Indeed, this is not the 'simple' fix as in '08, it's a much greater, more far reaching shock.
    The final nail in the coffin of High St. retail.
    People will get used to shopping on line with High Street taking a big shake up

  4. #604
    ‘Top Investment Picks’!

    What happened to the Morning Star being a reader-owned co-operative and unique as a lone socialist voice in a sea of corporate media?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  5. #605

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Just cashed out of a lot of BP shares at 340p

    Yes, they where around 460p in January before CV, but they are a lot better than the 234p they traded only 13 days ago.

    I decided to move given the 20-25% bounce in the stock market over the last few days, that the U.K. reported 381 deaths, the WHO reported that this is far from over and it I feel America is 2-3 weeks behind. All hell will break lose if it turns to rat sh1t right across America.

    Coupled with a smallish pension I’ve now converted into a deposit fund (my main pension is a DB) from a high stock content, I’m now totally out of the stock market for the time being.

    Have I made the correct choice. Only time will tell.

  6. #606
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    I also sold my small holding in Shell today

  7. #607
    Still holding my BP ones and will hopefully recover in a number of years but have now requested all future dividend payments to be cash not more shares. I'm exposed to them enough as it is so this will hopefully help reduce my risk. So much for planning their dividend payments would contribute to my early retirement!

  8. #608
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post

    Coupled with a smallish pension I’ve now converted into a deposit fund (my main pension is a DB) from a high stock content, I’m now totally out of the stock market for the time being.

    Have I made the correct choice. Only time will tell.

    Indeed, oh for a DB pension. I wonder if any schemes will be forced to default.

  9. #609
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    Quote Originally Posted by JuanKing View Post
    Still holding my BP ones and will hopefully recover in a number of years but have now requested all future dividend payments to be cash not more shares. I'm exposed to them enough as it is so this will hopefully help reduce my risk. So much for planning their dividend payments would contribute to my early retirement!
    Curious what your expectations are in terms of dividends for the next years?

  10. #610
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    Lying awake at about 2am this morning with my mind doing lots of unpaid overtime, I suddenly thought about my car. I haven’t driven for over 3 weeks so need to start it up. That led me to think about the miles I can do on my lease deal and how I’d be under when the deal ends, which led me to thinking about paying out £900 pm for two lease deals, which led me to think that I wouldn’t be doing that again in the future, which led me to think about all the pcp and ch hire financing out there that the finance industry have been predicting for a long time will be the next financial disaster, which will now come home to roost immediately because of the current climate, which in turn will have a devastating effect on the car industry.

    Which led me to think that in almost every scenario you think about there will be consequences- house prices, travel industry, shops, financial, leisure, commodities, pubs, hotels etc etc.

    So I don’t think this is overdone, I think it’s reality setting in very quickly. How bad the damage will be is the unknown. The quicker lockdown ends the less it will be, the longer the worse it will be.

    The real sad thing is the loss of life which is truly awful. The positive is that we will bounce back and hopefully we’ll have different priorities going forward. I’ve seen some amazing acts of bravery from those on the front line to people just looking after their neighbours.
    I’m not talking about you here but people I know of..
    I have mentioned on TZ before about car PCP being the new 110% mortgage, people borrow 95% mortgage and live with it for 6 months and get used to living with those bills, they realise they have some extra money in their pocket once settled, most are social media aware and they want the cars that friends have, for £500 a month you can put a serious car on your drive and look the part, all lovely to look at but generally it’s the gloss on a fake lifestyle.

    Times like this will sort who can and who can’t afford the nice cars.

    I expect to see lots of low mileage under 3 year old cars coming to the market soon..

  11. #611
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    I’m not talking about you here but people I know of..
    I have mentioned on TZ before about car PCP being the new 110% mortgage, people borrow 95% mortgage and live with it for 6 months and get used to living with those bills, they realise they have some extra money in their pocket once settled, most are social media aware and they want the cars that friends have, for £500 a month you can put a serious car on your drive and look the part, all lovely to look at but generally it’s the gloss on a fake lifestyle.

    Times like this will sort who can and who can’t afford the nice cars.

    I expect to see lots of low mileage under 3 year old cars coming to the market soon..
    Already read some comments on TZ about people thinking about returning their lease cars.

    I think too many people have no idea about how this is going to change society at large. If global consumption drops by only a few percentage points, the whole house of cards will collapse and plenty of people will be caught swimming naked.

  12. #612
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    FTSE

    the yo-yo continues

    up yesterday - down this morning

    no reason or rhyme to all this

  13. #613
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    HSBC drops 8pc
    Banks are plunging as expected.

    HSBC is leading the fall with an 8pc drop
    StanChart is down 6.3pc
    Lloyds is down 6.4pc
    Barclays is down 5.7pc
    RBS is down 2pc


    are currency accounts, (non-sterling) held with UK Banks in the UK still covered by the £85k guarantee - i.e. a Euro Account held with HSBC?
    Last edited by BillN; 1st April 2020 at 08:25.

  14. #614
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    FTSE

    the yo-yo continues

    up yesterday - down this morning

    no reason or rhyme to all this
    How could there be rhyme or reason though, unprecedented events are happening at pace around the world at a time when we've never been more interdependently connected...No wonder really, all we have right now is uncertainty.
    I'd sit it out for months, maybe even until next year until something like a 'level' emerges, but I'm not really that much into stocks, having pretty limited exposure overall and no urgent need to get at traditional 'pension'. Though if you're trying to make a quick buck it's different I can appreciate that, and no criticism implied.

    Think you'd have the 85k coverage or just possibly the up to 75 K euro cover, more or less equivalent. For clarity check with HSBC.
    Last edited by Passenger; 1st April 2020 at 08:37.

  15. #615
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    How could there be rhyme or reason though, unprecedented events are happening at pace around the world at a time when we've never been more interdependently connected...No wonder really, all we have right now is uncertainty..
    what I mean't was up yesterday down today - look at the major stocks - why were Shell and BP up yesterday but down today - same info known today as yesterday

    HSBC - are not replying to my emails, (I emailed them 5 days ago and asked my "personal adviser" to call) and their phone queue is well............long
    Last edited by BillN; 1st April 2020 at 08:40.

  16. #616
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    as I understand it half of RR's turnover is dependant on its civil aerospace business
    I didn’t lecture you, I was recently offered a position at RR so got an understanding of what products they make/repair and have friends who have worked there years..

    At the moment almost any business that is linked with air travel will take a hammering, RR do supply and repair commercial aircraft engines but what I was saying is that a big part of what they do is military so that shouldn’t be affected too much in this slump.

    I have been buying and selling their shares in this crash and have done quite well, long term I think they’ll be okay but I’m happy to make 5/10% and take my money and profits out.

  17. #617
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    what I mean't was up yesterday down today - look at the major stocks - why were Shell and BP up yesterday but down today - same info known today as yesterday

    HSBC - are not replying to my emails, (I emailed them 5 days ago and asked my "personal adviser" to call) and their phone queue is well............long
    Then I guess it sheds some light on the old question about whether the markets are effiicent or irrational though I stand by my point about markets hating uncertainty and right now thats;( the only thing we all appear to have plenty of.

    Sorry to hear HSBC client comms are not delivering for you, though I believe you've likely got up to the 85 k 'protection'. Did you know though that even where you might have different accounts with the same institution, the total protection is only up to the first 85 k, might be worth bearing in mind.

  18. #618
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    Just wondering how safe are Pension Funds - clearly if in S & S the value will have fallen - but I have one in cash which I converted mid last year - reasonable size - what's the situation there - if the company goes pot is that limited to £85k or not even guaranteed.

    I lost quite a lot in the Equitable Life fiasco, so I'm pretty sensitive in that respect

  19. #619
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post

    Sorry to hear HSBC client comms are not delivering for you, though I believe you've likely got up to the 85 k 'protection'. Did you know though that even where you might have different accounts with the same institution, the total protection is only up to the first 85 k, might be worth bearing in mind.
    I think husband and wife are treated separately?? -

    I realised that and yep I need to move some stuff around today

  20. #620
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    I didn’t lecture you, I was recently offered a position at RR so got an understanding of what products they make/repair and have friends who have worked there years..

    At the moment almost any business that is linked with air travel will take a hammering, RR do supply and repair commercial aircraft engines but what I was saying is that a big part of what they do is military so that shouldn’t be affected too much in this slump.

    I have been buying and selling their shares in this crash and have done quite well, long term I think they’ll be okay but I’m happy to make 5/10% and take my money and profits out.
    I don't think you "lectured" me????

  21. #621
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    Just wondering how safe are Pension Funds - clearly if in S & S the value will have fallen - but I have one in cash which I converted mid last year - reasonable size - what's the situation there - if the company goes pot is that limited to £85k or not even guaranteed.

    I lost quite a lot in the Equitable Life fiasco, so I'm pretty sensitive in that respect
    Seems a valid question but pensions not products I've had much faith/ experience with as yet, I'd guess you've at least the first 85 k covered as fscs kinda comes as standard but that might be about it, what does your documentation have to say...

  22. #622
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    I think husband and wife are treated separately?? -

    I realised that and yep I need to move some stuff around today
    Yes re husband and wife, at least the last time I checked. Though can't quite recall how a joint account might be handled, if for example one partner had also a single account with 85 k, seem to think there was a bit of an 'issue' with getting the full 85k coverage on the joint...
    Last edited by Passenger; 1st April 2020 at 09:13.

  23. #623
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    I don't think you "lectured" me????
    Sorry Bill, quote system confused me, it was Raffe who I lectured

    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Only a few weeks ago I was lectured in this thread that RR didn't have much exposure to commercial airlines. Well, they are a whole pound cheaper today than on that day.

  24. #624
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    I thought pension funds were held in separate segregated accounts and therefore protected from the fund manager going bust.

  25. #625
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Sorry Bill, quote system confused me, it was Raffe who I lectured
    no worries - but I am worried about RR, friends are connected with the company and I've been involved with the sector in the past

  26. #626
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    no worries - but I am worried about RR, friends are connected with the company and I've been involved with the sector in the past
    Monday I bought in at 3.19 and sold yesterday at 3.40, I’m tempted to go in again but they are taking a hammering at the moment, they often react when the DJ opens too??

  27. #627
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    I thought pension funds were held in separate segregated accounts and therefore protected from the fund manager going bust.
    Hopefully this can be clarified ........where's Raffe?

  28. #628
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    I thought pension funds were held in separate segregated accounts and therefore protected from the fund manager going bust.
    This might shed some light,


    https://www.fscs.org.uk/what-we-cover/pensions/

    Absolute coverage seems to hinge on 'contracts of long term insurance' but that appears to be for an annuity, obviously I don't know if Bill bought an annuity or the cash is held in some kind of a fund or account on his behalf, won't just the 85 k limit apply...
    Last edited by Passenger; 1st April 2020 at 09:25.

  29. #629
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    85k per person per banking license.

    Some banks are owned by the same license holder so do your checks. Note it is per license not per account.

    Assets are held in client accounts so are not part of the 85k.

  30. #630
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    FTSE

    the yo-yo continues

    up yesterday - down this morning

    no reason or rhyme to all this
    Big spike in USA cases

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    So the virus continues to rampage through the worlds biggest economy

    Plus dire Q1 figures starting to flow, and announcements on slashing dividends.

    I don’t see any good news ... or the prospect of any.
    Last edited by Montello; 1st April 2020 at 09:32.

  31. #631
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    85k per person per banking license.

    Some banks are owned by the same license holder so do your checks. Note it is per license not per account.

    Assets are held in client accounts so are not part of the 85k.
    But for those assets held in client accounts, are they guaranteed without limit I think is the question...what if the entity where that account is lodged goes bust...

  32. #632
    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    what I mean't was up yesterday down today - look at the major stocks - why were Shell and BP up yesterday but down today - same info known today as yesterday
    Trump announced yesterday a further 30 day social distancing.

    An extra month of factories shut down all requiring oil/ fuels, reduction in transportation fuels demand as nobody is driving/flying, no advance of Saudi/Russia oil price spat etc. etc.

    All for the largest oil consuming nation in the world. So, I’m not surprised by oil company shares falling after Trump’s statement.

  33. #633
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    Hopefully this can be clarified ........where's Raffe?
    Here, working hard to keep my daughter entertained.

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  34. #634
    Those stick people are standing too close together

  35. #635
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    But for those assets held in client accounts, are they guaranteed without limit I think is the question...what if the entity where that account is lodged goes bust...
    Most major platforms follow the same set up, here are HL details.


    >>How is cash held https://www.hl.co.uk/about-us/cash



    >>How safe is your investment https://www.hl.co.uk/security-centre...our-investment

    You will have to check your own provider.

  36. #636
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    Quote Originally Posted by vortgern View Post
    Those stick people are standing too close together
    You right. Trying again.

    My blue/blue choice of clothes this morning doesn't help making me look attractive, does it?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  37. #637
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    Thea seems to suggest I am somewhat overweight. I think that's extremely unfair considering my last year's weight loss, 85kg for 1.90 meter?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  38. #638
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Most major platforms follow the same set up, here are HL details.


    >>How is cash held https://www.hl.co.uk/about-us/cash



    >>How safe is your investment https://www.hl.co.uk/security-centre...our-investment

    You will have to check your own provider.
    Thanks, so even with cash, in the event you've too much of it concentrated in one place, there is still potential for risk.
    Agreed, get onto your provider is the best advice.


    and legless Raffe.

  39. #639
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    You right. Trying again.

    My blue/blue choice of clothes this morning doesn't help making me look attractive, does it?
    Always wondered what you look like Raffe, now I know..

    Last edited by murkeywaters; 1st April 2020 at 10:18.

  40. #640
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Curious what your expectations are in terms of dividends for the next years?
    They know they need to provide the dividend which so many investors rely upon as if they do not then a free fall is imminent. I see the balance books being strong enough to weather the current storm for ~18months, then after that who knows what will happen. Oil is a declining market but the dividends are to enticing still for many.

  41. #641
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    Quote Originally Posted by JuanKing View Post
    They know they need to provide the dividend which so many investors rely upon as if they do not then a free fall is imminent. I see the balance books being strong enough to weather the current storm for ~18months, then after that who knows what will happen. Oil is a declining market but the dividends are to enticing still for many.
    Dream on.

    Already last year, BP paid out twice as much in dividends than what they earned. This year they won't earn anything but make a loss.

  42. #642
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ivan Drago View Post
    Ive gone in fairly heavy with Barclays shares. Safe bet they will bounce back to around 1.50/180, currently around the 90p mark.
    Ow, sorry. At least you didn't buy them cum dividend... Not too heavy I hope - if it is any consolation, I had just topped up LLOY at 32p.

  43. #643
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    Quote Originally Posted by nickk View Post
    Ow, sorry. At least you didn't buy them cum dividend... Not too heavy I hope - if it is any consolation, I had just topped up LLOY at 32p.
    LLoyds are tempting, but they are trying so hard to stay in the 30's, I think we'll see them in the 20's soon but should rebound back in the next few months - should!

  44. #644
    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Always wondered what you look like Raffe, now I know..

    Bangin', but I prefer to watch this version, for some reason.


  45. #645
    I'm sitting very happy with my decision last week to sell out most of my oil (bp) and banking stock (mostly hsbc) - what has happen thus far, has not surprised me.

    Note - Shell is borrowing $12 billion and is also trying to shave $9 odd billion from 2020 spending. Both are needed to facilitate dividend. Madness.

  46. #646
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    I'm sitting very happy with my decision last week to sell out most of my oil (bp) and banking stock (mostly hsbc) - what has happen thus far, has not surprised me.

    Note - Shell is borrowing $12 billion and is also trying to shave $9 odd billion from 2020 spending. Both are needed to facilitate dividend. Madness.
    Reality will catch up quickly, nothing more stupid than paying a dividend when your cash flow is challenged. They already had to cancel the dividend when oil crashed after the GFC, they will do it again this time.

  47. #647
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Reality will catch up quickly, nothing more stupid than paying a dividend when your cash flow is challenged. They already had to cancel the dividend when oil crashed after the GFC, they will do it again this time.
    The problem is their gearing is still manageable and so in theory doable. Playing with fire.

    It's a global issue really - the reliance on cheap money to fuel growth. Take some of that away and we have some serious, serious issues.

  48. #648
    Yes I know it’s the Sun, but this article I found articulates the potential massive issues ahead of the majority of the worlds economies. Anyone playing in the markets is very brave, I think a FTSE at 4,000 is very realistic. The world is not going to be back to normal for a very long time and if you think we had austerity before, think again.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/113006...re-four-weeks/

  49. #649
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    I didn’t lecture you, I was recently offered a position at RR so got an understanding of what products they make/repair and have friends who have worked there years..

    At the moment almost any business that is linked with air travel will take a hammering, RR do supply and repair commercial aircraft engines but what I was saying is that a big part of what they do is military so that shouldn’t be affected too much in this slump.

    I have been buying and selling their shares in this crash and have done quite well, long term I think they’ll be okay but I’m happy to make 5/10% and take my money and profits out.
    which is the age old problem with the system we have. In a crisis those that have, make money. When there isnt a crisis, those that have, make money...

    And ultimately, it is the average or lower paid worker who cops the bill via taxes which they can't reduce by utilising schemes or methods that Are available for those that "have"

    Call me a socialist if you like but remember that as we live in societies we should all be socialists...

  50. #650
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    The problem is their gearing is still manageable and so in theory doable. Playing with fire.

    It's a global issue really - the reliance on cheap money to fuel growth. Take some of that away and we have some serious, serious issues.
    Another problem with the western world is the interest in Growth. Its not possible to continue growing for ever without some very wild scenarios

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