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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #6951
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    After some quite nerve wracking volatility I decided that for the last couple of weeks I'd play it safe, stick some money into index trackers, some specific funds too and just not look at the account. I've been way more chilled than usual and the account is up overall. Not caring about how bitcoin is doing has been liberating too - I've seen it go up, down, up and now it seems to be going down again, all for no real fundamental reason. And I've not cared a jot :)

    I'm sure I'll get back into crazy stocks later but the 'craziest' position I currently hold is SMT!

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  2. #6952
    Is the world inflationary long term though?

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  3. #6953
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    After some quite nerve wracking volatility I decided that for the last couple of weeks I'd play it safe, stick some money into index trackers, some specific funds too and just not look at the account. I've been way more chilled than usual and the account is up overall. Not caring about how bitcoin is doing has been liberating too - I've seen it go up, down, up and now it seems to be going down again, all for no real fundamental reason. And I've not cared a jot :)

    I'm sure I'll get back into crazy stocks later but the 'craziest' position I currently hold is SMT!

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    I thought you were trading Argo just a couple of days ago?

    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    ARB back in a price zone where I'm interested in getting back in, hoping for a quick ride up to 180p and then get out again. What do we thing on ARB at current valuations. Short term bounce up likely?
    #plantpot

  4. #6954
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I thought you were trading Argo just a couple of days ago?
    Nope. Sat on the sidelines.

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  5. #6955
    Markets jittery

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  6. #6956
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I thought you were trading Argo just a couple of days ago?
    Argo? Did someone just mention Argo?



    Less than a fortnight to go. Hmmmm.

  7. #6957
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    Argo? Did someone just mention Argo?



    Less than a fortnight to go. Hmmmm.
    What's your data source?

    Argo closed at 133.95p today.
    #plantpot

  8. #6958
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    What's your data source?

    Argo closed at 133.95p today.
    Most platforms are showing close at 141.6p

    It happens quite often with Argo where large buys after hours seem to increase the uncrossing trade to a higher number.

    I think there were about £500k of buys at around 145p showed up just after close.

    (Could have been rollovers, but don’t think they were)

  9. #6959
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Most platforms are showing close at 141.6p

    It happens quite often with Argo where large buys after hours seem to increase the uncrossing trade to a higher number.

    I think there were about £500k of buys at around 145p showed up just after close.

    (Could have been rollovers, but don’t think they were)
    Well the LSE show 125/135, 130 last, but what do they know about stock trading?




    PS: what the hell is a rollover in the context of stock trading?
    #plantpot

  10. #6960
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    What's your data source?

    Argo closed at 133.95p today.
    The chart is automatically generated from a rough and ready script I wrote. The script starts by pulling a csv file for the required date range from the historical data on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARB.L/history?p=ARB.L



    Seeking peace, calm and tranquillity in a Utopian universe where all data is uniform and clean, I have temporarily removed the entry for today and corrected yesterday's occasionally occurring GBp confusion. You may need to do a browser cache refresh to see the updated chart.

    I use the yahoo data simply because it is both easily accessible and cheap (as in free). I would be very interested in hearing any suggestions for an alternate source which meets both these criteria.
    Last edited by petethegeek; 18th June 2021 at 21:32. Reason: Added screenshot

  11. #6961
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    I have no good answer as the data quality for those minor listings is appalling.

    I would tend to prefer LSE data over Yahoo (who use Reuters data I believe), easiest implementation would probably be to use the Google feed as it is both free and realtime. It also appears largely consistent with LSE data.
    #plantpot

  12. #6962
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    ... easiest implementation would probably be to use the Google feed as it is both free and realtime.
    When I first looked into this topic a short while ago, it appeared that the Google Finance API had been closed down with access only possible via Google Sheets.

    https://algotrading101.com/learn/goo...nce-api-guide/

    (I seem to recall seeing customer conflict being mentioned as a reason.)

  13. #6963
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Ah didn't know.
    #plantpot

  14. #6964
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    Much talk about my sector here??? Construction???

    It’s not a good place to be at the front.

    Pitch

  15. #6965
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    I said it before, and I’ll say it again………….INFLATION!!

  16. #6966
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    PS: what the hell is a rollover in the context of stock trading?

    I think they’re often when someone is moving their shares from a regular account into a sipp/isa. Or moving stock from one pension to another.

    Usually see them on down days. I guess that’s cause when you sell the chunk of shares, you’re more likely to buy them back at a lower cost a few minutes/seconds later

    I’ve heard the term used a lot to explain two large buys in quick succession.
    People see the trades and think they’re two big buys, but actually one is a buy and one is a sell. (Which is why the SP doesn’t move)

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rollover.asp

  17. #6967
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Lolz, how would that go via the stock exchange?

    A rollover is when you roll a derivative position from one expiry to another (or from one strike to another). It doesn't exist on the stock exchange.
    #plantpot

  18. #6968
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Naturally one picks things up from reading boards.

    I’ve been reading the QFI board on LSE for a decade and see the term rollover used at least weekly, to explain a pair of trades that look almost identical.

    One is a sell, the next is a buy.

    Someone always pipes up and say “oooo two big buys” and someone else will say “Nope, it’s just a rollover”.

    Maybe they should have another name.

    I always understood it was someone moving their shares from one place/account to another and trying to limit the time out of the market.

    Anyway, a boring point for everyone.

  19. #6969
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Asia tanking. Seems investors worried the Fed will start to increase rates earlier. Can't see it happening, surely inflation is a good thing when you owe so much money?

  20. #6970
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Asia tanking. Seems investors worried the Fed will start to increase rates earlier. Can't see it happening, surely inflation is a good thing when you owe so much money?
    You must be the last person on the earth still talking about inflation?

    The 30 year T-Bond is trading below 2%.
    #plantpot

  21. #6971
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    You must be the last person on the earth still talking about inflation?

    The 30 year T-Bond is trading below 2%.
    I don’t think he his …. There are plenty of commentators in the various financial press speculating about the prospect of inflation.

  22. #6972
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    I don’t think he his …. There are plenty of commentators in the various financial press speculating about the prospect of inflation.
    Not the people I follow.

    We had a period of higher-than-normal price increases, mostly connected to capacity shortages in the aftermath of the Covid shock.

    Inflation going forward? Not so many who expect that. Very much yesterday's talk.
    #plantpot

  23. #6973
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Not the people I follow.

    We had a period of higher-than-normal price increases, mostly connected to capacity shortages in the aftermath of the Covid shock.

    Inflation going forward? Not so many who expect that. Very much yesterday's talk.
    Well perhaps have a look around you ... most things are becoming more expensive and there are labour shortages in many sectors which will push wages / rates up ... regardless of which financial commentators you follow I can tell you inflation is real and happening right now ...

  24. #6974
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Well perhaps have a look around you ... most things are becoming more expensive and there are labour shortages in many sectors which will push wages / rates up ... regardless of which financial commentators you follow I can tell you inflation is real and happening right now ...
    That's exactly what I wrote above?

    The question is whether we will still have price pressure next year, and given all of the investments right now, the market consensus clearly is not - or interest rates wouldn't be free-falling.
    #plantpot

  25. #6975
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    That's exactly what I wrote above?

    The question is whether we will still have price pressure next year, and given all of the investments right now, the market consensus clearly is not - or interest rates wouldn't be free-falling.
    We will see, but right now we are in the grip of inflation.

  26. #6976
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    We will see, but right now we are in the grip of inflation.
    If we are, why do interest rates fall?

    You need to stop looking at yesterday's numbers. The only question which counts is if we will have high inflation next year. The market is pretty clear about that:

    This is the market's 10 year inflation expectation, calculated from market rates of inflation-linked bonds. Note inflation expectations have been falling substantially over the past weeks:



    Source: Federal Reserve
    #plantpot

  27. #6977
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    If we are, why do interest rates fall?

    You need to stop looking at yesterday's numbers. The only question which counts is if we will have high inflation next year. The market is pretty clear about that:

    This is the market's 10 year inflation expectation, calculated from market rates of inflation-linked bonds. Note inflation expectations have been falling substantially over the past weeks:



    Source: Federal Reserve
    As you know markets are not always right … inflation is everywhere I look and I don’t see any relief coming

  28. #6978
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    As you know markets are not always right … inflation is everywhere I look and I don’t see any relief coming
    I really don't understand.

    Inflation is measured by a documented process at the Federal Reserve and published monthly (CPI and PPI). A bit difficult if you are trying to make your gut feeling the criteria ('everywhere I look'). Again, today's inflation rate is history, it measures how prices developed in the past (last month versus today). But what is relevant is how they will develop in the future, for which there is no other process than trying to estimate it by modelling supply and demand (note that I don't accept 'everywhere I look' as a process for forecasting). This forecasting is done both at the Federal reserve (where it influences their decision process about monetary policy) and on the other side of the market, with banks and bond investors where it influences the decisions to buy or sell the various government bonds. From the prices of these government bonds you can then calculate the market consensus expectations for forward inflation, which is the graph I shared above.

    You can say that you disagree with the market consensus, but if you want me to respect your reasoning for the disagreement you should at least have an argumentation which goes beyond gut feeling.
    #plantpot

  29. #6979
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post

    You can say that you disagree with the market consensus, but if you want me to respect your reasoning for the disagreement you should at least have an argumentation which goes beyond gut feeling.
    My view is based on what I am paying for things but more importantly what my clients are seeing in their purchasing supply chains and labour markets ... materials and labour are getting more and more expensive; beyond what is reported via the various CPI metrics ... it is a fact.

    Now how long that takes to be reflected in the CPI figures, which have been subject to manipulation for years, we will have to wait and see ...

    Have a read of this to understand how the calculations have been changed to keep the reported inflation figures below reality.

    http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate...flation-charts

  30. #6980
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Oh my God.

    I am out.
    #plantpot

  31. #6981

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    I bought a grand worth of Morrisons supermarket shares last month.

    Given my usual track record, the major share price jump today was a welcome surprise.

  32. #6982
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Nanostrategy is down 10% - breaks my heart.
    #plantpot

  33. #6983
    New crypto launched called Cumrocket only 4p I'm in

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  34. #6984
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    New crypto launched called Cumrocket only 4p I'm in

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
    Was 30 cents last month after Elon pumped and dumped it:




    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    It was four o'clock in the morning in Texas when Elon Musk tweeted this an hour ago:




    For those not up-to-date, the symbol refers to Cummies, as the coins of the CUMROCKET token are known.


    Result: Cumrocket coins jump by over 300%, to settle at +150% for now.




    I only have one question: WHEN PRISON?
    #plantpot

  35. #6985
    Lol

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  36. #6986
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Lol

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
    Welcome to Elon's world. Making millions with stoned tweets.
    #plantpot

  37. #6987
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    Avacta rapidly crashing back to reality. I’m just surprised it took this long

  38. #6988
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Does this chart look bullish to you? Honest question.

    #plantpot

  39. #6989
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    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Does this chart look bullish to you? Honest question.

    Looks a bit extended & due a pull back, may be worth buying on reversal from there. Would need to know more about the company before investing though, due diligence and all that...

    What is it, some Bitcoin related chart - inverted ?

  40. #6990
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    [QUOTE=Raffe;5776300]Does this chart look bullish to you? Honest question.

    haha just noticed the trajectory of the green / reds.

  41. #6991
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by benwisback View Post
    - - - Updated - - -



    Looks a bit extended & due a pull back, may be worth buying on reversal from there. Would need to know more about the company before investing though, due diligence and all that...

    What is it, some Bitcoin related chart - inverted ?
    Quote Originally Posted by benwisback View Post
    Does this chart look bullish to you? Honest question.

    haha just noticed the trajectory of the green / reds.
    Yes, inverted bitcoin. Was too lazy to play with the colour coding.
    Last edited by Raffe; 22nd June 2021 at 19:22.
    #plantpot

  42. #6992
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Yes, inverted bitcoin. Was too lazy to play with the colour coding.
    So for that my guess is that looks like a bounce to mid to late $30k's, a drop back to support at $30k then it's either Goblin Town or the Moon Bubba.

    I'm waiting for some sort of confirmation one way or the other before I do much.

    What's your thought's ?

  43. #6993
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by benwisback View Post
    So for that my guess is that looks like a bounce to mid to late $30k's, a drop back to support at $30k then it's either Goblin Town or the Moon Bubba.

    I'm waiting for some sort of confirmation one way or the other before I do much.

    What's your thought's ?
    Still short half a position, not sure it's still worth reversing it now that it's close to $33k.

    Looking for entry point to sell more, but want to wait until it settles. Squeezing some shorts first.
    #plantpot

  44. #6994
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    How to run a fraud - explained in 14 tweets.

    https://twitter.com/letsrebelagain/s...83206088675336
    #plantpot

  45. #6995
    If you own 3M shares check out the growing scandal in Belgium surrounding their factories

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

  46. #6996
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    How to run a fraud - explained in 14 tweets.

    https://twitter.com/letsrebelagain/s...83206088675336
    Indeed, shame though as their are elements of their cars that are brilliantly designed .

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

  47. #6997
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I sold MSTR short at $620.49

    Turned out a nice trade, bought back yesterday at $522 for a profit of almost $100 per share.

    Trouble is, I sold again at $545 and it continued climbing to close at $553 - hasn't traded yet in pre-market but indicated $572/$579. I bought some Tesla shares against this, have a long Tesla/short MSTR position now. I still have a lot of Tesla puts for the July expiry, so this is a tactical bet more rather than a strategic view (well, I just say that MSTR is a bigger pile of cr*p than TSLA). Might close either one of the legs at a heartbeat when trading begins.
    #plantpot

  48. #6998
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    ...well, I just say that MSTR is a bigger pile of cr*p than TSLA...
    Extracted from a Bloomberg article on Monday, which I'm presuming/guessing you've already seen.

    MicroStrategy Inc.’s most recent crypto spending spree should deliver another hit to the company’s bottom line.

    The Tysons Corner, Virginia-based enterprise software company said Monday that it purchased an additional 13,005 Bitcoins for about $489 million in cash at an average price of about $37,617 per Bitcoin. The news did little to slow a dramatic slide in the world’s largest cryptocurrency, with prices slumping nearly 10% to roughly $32,300.

    As a result of the freefall, MicroStrategy may have to mark down the value of the Bitcoins it just purchased. Accounting rules dictate that the firm will have to write down its holdings once the market value dips below the price at which it acquired the coin. Bitcoin touched an intraday low of $31,735 on Monday, meaning that MicroStrategy may incur a nearly $77 million charge, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    While $77 million may seem like a trivial amount for a $5.7 billion company, MicroStrategy’s net income from 2018 to 2020 was just $67.6 million. That’s in addition to the roughly $284.5 million charge it will take in its next earnings report, according to a filing earlier this month.That will bring the company’s total Bitcoin-related impairments to more than $500 million, according to its filings and data compiled by Bloomberg.

  49. #6999
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    The June low is now $28.8k, so much worse than described in the article.

    Add to that that the bitcoins are in a separate legal entity used to secure the bonds, it becomes clear that the shareholders own nothing if (when) this goes down.

    I have said it before: the company will file for bankruptcy before this year is over.
    #plantpot

  50. #7000
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I have said it before: the company will file for bankruptcy before this year is over.

    Unless BTC goes back to a new ATH…..then Saylor will be hailed a genius.

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