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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #6901
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chinnock View Post
    I disagree this will be the last.

    Social media, contempt of financial institutions (bail outs, pensions etc). Poor are getting poorer!

    They’ve had a taste of blood, more will come. It will only grow in numbers. It’s a rebellion after all.

    Smart people are using the mob!

    Volatility is an investors opportunity, regardless of the truth.
    Well, we shall see.

    I expect plenty of megaphones to declare that they are the ambassadors for 'the people' and looking to make a pretty penny on that. Just look at politics, the same happened there: populists coming into power and doing nothing but grifting and screwing over the people who put them in power. Just wait, most of the reddit investors will lose their shirts and that's the end of it.

    Just look at it as a game of poker. Yes you can come in and simply ignore the accepted rules and just go all-in every round. Trouble is, it will take the pros only a very short time to adjust and then they will rip your face off. Never underestimate the suits, they are very good at what they are doing. They will take every penny from the WSB crowd. Every single penny.
    #plantpot

  2. #6902
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Well, we shall see.

    I expect plenty of megaphones to declare that they are the ambassadors for 'the people' and looking to make a pretty penny on that. Just look at politics, the same happened there: populists coming into power and doing nothing but grifting and screwing over the people who put them in power. Just wait, most of the reddit investors will lose their shirts and that's the end of it.

    Just look at it as a game of poker. Yes you can come in and simply ignore the accepted rules and just go all-in every round. Trouble is, it will take the pros only a very short time to adjust and then they will rip your face off. Never underestimate the suits, they are very good at what they are doing. They will take every penny from the WSB crowd. Every single penny.
    Based on what happened with GME, yes the “suits” clearly have powerful allies.

    Nevertheless,

    Volatility = Opportunity..........regardless of what’s true.

  3. #6903
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    I think the rebels will run out of money soon.

  4. #6904
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    I think the rebels will run out of money soon.
    Yes.

    And guess where their money will end up? With the hedge funds and the market makers. Trickling up, same as it's ever been.

    Here's Ken Griffin counting his profit:

    #plantpot

  5. #6905
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    I keep reading that the long term real return after inflation (assuming dividends are reinvested) of the S&P500 is around 7%. Obviously some years much higher and some years much lower but that's what the real return seems to be.

    What are the thoughts on whether that trend will continue over the next 20 or so years? Crystal ball time I know

  6. #6906
    Master Caruso's Avatar
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    Another good day for Oust. Apparently they are expecting stock to be added to the Russell 2000 Index on June 25 as part of the annual reconstitution for the US small-cap equities index.
    Last edited by Caruso; 7th June 2021 at 20:51.

  7. #6907
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I keep reading that the long term real return after inflation (assuming dividends are reinvested) of the S&P500 is around 7%. Obviously some years much higher and some years much lower but that's what the real return seems to be.

    What are the thoughts on whether that trend will continue over the next 20 or so years? Crystal ball time I know
    Well if that's the average and (according to my understanding) the last decade has seen a much higher rate, I'd say we're in for a lean patch. I thinks we've had it a bit too good for a bit too long. Still hope I'm wrong though!

  8. #6908
    Master studly's Avatar
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    After taking a month long break from trading stocks and crypto it's time to get back in the game.


  9. #6909
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Lucky for MicroStrategy that the sell-off in bitcoin comes before they have doubled down on their bet with the additional $400 Mio they are planning to borrow. I have seen calculations that the company is bankrupt when bitcoin hits $22,000. The new position to be bought upon successful closure of the new bond will not improve its financial position, unless they decide to keep some of their fresh cash for other purposes (let's wait for the prospectus). Also very curious if they will find enough investors that accept a binary bitcoin-linked downside with a meagre 6.5% p.a. upside.

    Meanwhile, The FT have written about MicroStrategy, and as you'd expect, they are fans: LINKY
    #plantpot

  10. #6910
    Debt to buy more...what could possibly go wrong...

  11. #6911
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    Quote Originally Posted by Geoff W View Post
    Debt to buy more...what could possibly go wrong...
    Borrowing money to buy things... Hmmmm.. genius if prices go up. But..

    Sent from my EVR-L29 using Tapatalk

  12. #6912
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKitega View Post
    Borrowing money to buy things... Hmmmm.. genius if prices go up. But..

    Sent from my EVR-L29 using Tapatalk
    People borrow money to buy stuff all the time … especially property.

  13. #6913
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    People borrow money to buy stuff all the time … especially property.
    True.

    But go find a lender who will lend you money to buy a super-volatile asset* which will bankrupt you if it drops by 30% (*having no intrinsic value and after just having dropped by 50%).

    Bit of an asymmetric trade if there ever was one. 100% downside, 6% upside, about even odds between the two.
    #plantpot

  14. #6914
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    True.

    But go find a lender who will lend you money to buy a super-volatile asset* which will bankrupt you if it drops by 30% (*having no intrinsic value and after just having dropped by 50%).

    Bit of an asymmetric trade if there ever was one. 100% downside, 6% upside, about even odds between the two.
    Absolutely, which is why so many people are BTL investors as property is pretty much the only asset class average people can borrow to invest in. Of course some people draw down on mortgages to buy all sorts including shares but that’s limited.

  15. #6915
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    #plantpot

  16. #6916
    El Salvador passed a bill accepting BTC as legal tender, to the moon!!

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

  17. #6917
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    El Salvador passed a bill accepting BTC as legal tender, to the moon!!

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
    Yes, fantastic.

    The dictator who bought himself an army with which he then threatened Congress to replace all judges. What could go wrong with our new bitcoin super-hero?
    #plantpot

  18. #6918
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Yes, fantastic.

    The dictator who bought himself an army with which he then threatened Congress to replace all judges. What could go wrong with our new bitcoin super-hero?
    He's a visionary and mates with Musk I'm sure of it

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

  19. #6919
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    To be fair, you could say worse things about Sheik Mohammed, and he built Dubai despite a million naysayers.

    Sometimes it’s these hardcore types that actually get sh1t done.

  20. #6920
    Newsflash!

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

  21. #6921
    To the moon!

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  22. #6922
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    It is rather brilliant, when you think of it like that.


    He is literally going to pull the country's new wealth out of cyberspace using the power of volcanoes.

    Up yours to the USD/USA.

    Amazing.

  23. #6923
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    To be fair, you could say worse things about Sheik Mohammed, and he built Dubai despite a million naysayers.

    Sometimes it’s these hardcore types that actually get sh1t done.
    I mean, you cansay what you like about Mussolini but at least the trains ran on time, eh Mr noble? Am I (far) right people?

  24. #6924
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    I guess most Roman Emperors fall into the same category.

    This should probably be on the Bitcoin thread.....

  25. #6925
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Returning to the topic of stocks, Tesla organised an event yesterday evening introducing the new Model S Plaid.

    Show started one and a half hours late and Elon was visibly drunk/drugged, stuttered himself through 20 minutes talk and that was it. No new innovation, the infamous (imaginary) 4680 type batteries again didn't materialise and besides that, the car has now a keyless entry!).

    Short TSLA.

    #plantpot

  26. #6926
    Blimey

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  27. #6927
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    To be fair, you could say worse things about Sheik Mohammed, and he built Dubai despite a million naysayers.

    Sometimes it’s these hardcore types that actually get sh1t done.
    On the back of quasi slaves, tough to imagine anywhere I'd want to visit less never mind live than Dubai...yeah top bloke that SHEIKH fella.


    Is Elon running on empty/ running out of tricks perhaps.

    Or coke, lolz.
    Last edited by Passenger; 11th June 2021 at 13:53.

  28. #6928
    I think he's being found out for the charlatan he undoubtedly is, his reign as king narcissist is coming to an end.

    Shareholders going to do a job on him, hire a private detective and get something on him

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

  29. #6929
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Just watched Elon do the Model S launch and can’t see what the fuss is about?

    He appeared exactly the same as always. He stutters, shows a lot of nerves and is a terrible orator. Nothing made me think that he was drunk or on drugs.

    The new car looks sensational. Would love one. Too bad I good spec one will be well over £100k.

    They won’t be able to build them fast enough to keep up with sales.

  30. #6930
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Just watched Elon do the Model S launch and can’t see what the fuss is about?

    He appeared exactly the same as always. He stutters, shows a lot of nerves and is a terrible orator. Nothing made me think that he was drunk or on drugs.

    The new car looks sensational. Would love one. Too bad I good spec one will be well over £100k.

    They won’t be able to build them fast enough to keep up with sales.
    Lolz
    #plantpot

  31. #6931
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    What are the collective's thoughts on the market going forward?


    Are we still expecting another mini/mid size crash if/when the FED announce they're going to start to taper QE? Inflation worries seem to have been forgotted. 10 year bond yields are back under 1.5%......


    I'm trying to decide when to sell some stocks, and still have a chunk of cash sat in my son's new Vanguard Junior ISA of which I've only put 1/4 into the market so far.

    Notoriously hard to try to time the market, whether buying or selling.



    I have held TIGR stocks for a few months and always said I'd sell at $30 which might get hit today, however, now I'm thinking it might continue to go up, and it'd be almost as painful to sell and miss more gains as it is to not sell and see it drop again.



    Anyone's crystal ball working?

  32. #6932
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    On TIGR: perhaps take some profits but keep some shares then?

  33. #6933
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    MicroStrategy: hitting the $600 one of my friends predicted last week. Wow, an awful lot of people were caught short in that POS - I dare to predict you'll never see a better bid in your lifetime.
    #plantpot

  34. #6934
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    MicroStrategy: hitting the $600 one of my friends predicted last week. Wow, an awful lot of people were caught short in that POS - I dare to predict you'll never see a better bid in your lifetime.
    Presumably on the back of this press release.

  35. #6935
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    Selling my last AMC here, bought at $45 and $49.
    #plantpot

  36. #6936
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    MicroStrategy: hitting the $600 one of my friends predicted last week. Wow, an awful lot of people were caught short in that POS - I dare to predict you'll never see a better bid in your lifetime.
    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    Presumably on the back of this press release.
    You. Could. Not. Make. This. Up.

    MICROSTRATEGY INC FILES FOR POTENTIAL STOCK SHELF OFFERING

    How do they find the bagholders? Honest question.
    #plantpot

  37. #6937
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    How do they find the bagholders? Honest question.
    According to their press release the $500 Mio worth of Senior Secured Notes were sold to "qualified institutional buyers", ie not bored bedroom wanabe hotshot traders from reddit. Presumably purchased on behalf of their clients, ordinary people in regular jobs seeking safe and secure custody for their financial assets?

    Looking in from outside and purely out of personal curiosity and interest, I would like to continue tracking and observing how it all plays out. With this in mind, how much visibility will I now have, over and above the current financial accounting and reporting by MicroStategy Inc, of the newly (to be) created MacroStrategy LLC?

  38. #6938
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    According to their press release the $500 Mio worth of Senior Secured Notes were sold to "qualified institutional buyers", ie not bored bedroom wanabe hotshot traders from reddit. Presumably purchased on behalf of their clients, ordinary people in regular jobs seeking safe and secure custody for their financial assets?

    Looking in from outside and purely out of personal curiosity and interest, I would like to continue tracking and observing how it all plays out. With this in mind, how much visibility will I now have, over and above the current financial accounting and reporting by MicroStategy Inc, of the newly (to be) created MacroStrategy LLC?
    Given they are a material subsidiary of a listed company, I would expect them to be subject of filing requirements, but I am not 100% sure about US rules.
    #plantpot

  39. #6939
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Selling my last AMC here, bought at $45 and $49.
    Oh well. Sold at $56.85 yday, $62 now.

    Never underestimate r/WSB.


    But then, my favourite POS looks very soft today. Break below $600 for some downside acceleration?
    #plantpot

  40. #6940
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bondurant View Post
    On TIGR: perhaps take some profits but keep some shares then?
    Should have done what you suggested or sold it all at $29.50.

    It’s 25% down since then and as far as I can tell, due to absolutely no news.

  41. #6941
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Should have done what you suggested or sold it all at $29.50.

    It’s 25% down since then and as far as I can tell, due to absolutely no news.
    Maybe not so surprising after they went up 100% in a month, due to absolutely no news.
    #plantpot

  42. #6942
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    I sold MSTR short at $620.49

    #plantpot

  43. #6943
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Question for the teacher.


    I though that gold & silver etc where good for a portfolio to act as a hedge against inflation.

    We are facing a big boost to inflation, the Fed said as much last night, so why on Earth have silver and gold had drops?


    They ought to be mooning, shouldn’t they?

  44. #6944
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Question for the teacher.


    I though that gold & silver etc where good for a portfolio to act as a hedge against inflation.

    We are facing a big boost to inflation, the Fed said as much last night, so why on Earth have silver and gold had drops?


    They ought to be mooning, shouldn’t they?
    Honest answer: I have no idea. Saw quite some people scratching their heads about it yesterday, haven't had time to read up on today's interpretations about it yet.

    If I find something later, I will post it.
    #plantpot

  45. #6945
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    In the spirit of sharing:

    In the latest edition of Charles Schwab's glossy newsletter, their CEO offered these tips on investing (which I made note of):


    • Cut losses short and let winners run
    • Create a logical exit strategy for each investment when buying
    • Consider initiating a limit order so your exit strategy triggers automatically (revisit periodically)
    • If your recent buys have been tanking, reduce the value of future purchases until you regain confidence
    • Before investing in a falling market, wait for 2-3 consecutive days of positive results
    • Gains are not "gains" until realized/sold

  46. #6946
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Truth.
    #plantpot

  47. #6947
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Honest answer: I have no idea. Saw quite some people scratching their heads about it yesterday, haven't had time to read up on today's interpretations about it yet.

    If I find something later, I will post it.
    Hold down almost 5% on the day, that isn’t normal.

  48. #6948
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    It does seem very odd.

    Only ‘reason’ I’ve seen is that the indication of interest rate rises in 2023 have caused the drop in gold/sliver.

    I could see why that’d happen if the rate rise was imminent, but surely the market isnt already pricing in rate rises 2 years down the road?

  49. #6949
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Question for the teacher.


    I though that gold & silver etc where good for a portfolio to act as a hedge against inflation.

    We are facing a big boost to inflation, the Fed said as much last night, so why on Earth have silver and gold had drops?


    They ought to be mooning, shouldn’t they?
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Hold down almost 5% on the day, that isn’t normal.
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    It does seem very odd.

    Only ‘reason’ I’ve seen is that the indication of interest rate rises in 2023 have caused the drop in gold/sliver.

    I could see why that’d happen if the rate rise was imminent, but surely the market isnt already pricing in rate rises 2 years down the road?

    https://www.zer0es.tv/news-and-updat...n-to-the-fomc/
    #plantpot

  50. #6950
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Just watched Elon do the Model S launch and can’t see what the fuss is about?

    He appeared exactly the same as always. He stutters, shows a lot of nerves and is a terrible orator. Nothing made me think that he was drunk or on drugs.

    The new car looks sensational. Would love one. Too bad I good spec one will be well over £100k.

    They won’t be able to build them fast enough to keep up with sales.
    Just had a virtual beer with a friend and we watched the Plaid launch video again.

    He appeared exactly the same as always?? Have you ever seen somebody high as a kite? His nose is like a blinking red light, and he keeps giggling about his own jokes. Completely off the rails.

    He gets on stage at 3m45s, best is the complete silence when he completely loses it at 7m45s - absolute typical junkie behaviour. He starts regaining some composure about 12 minutes into the video. Bear in mind he was an hour and 20 minutes late, no word about reasons.




    Compare with this video from 2012, Elon starts at around 12m30s. Yes, he does stutter a bit, but he is not completely drifting away.

    #plantpot

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