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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

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  1. #1
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    At some point, this coronavirus-driven financial crisis will bottom out and rebound - - perhaps very quickly. I say this because this crash is an "artificial" one, caused by an outside factor, not an inherent problem(s) in the world economy (although some will argue that point). I believe the underlying Western economies are relatively sound fundamentally, and that they will be poised to recover from the impact of the CV in a reasonably short amount of time.

    It will be very important for serious investors to:

    • Watch for signs that the bloodbath is over (at least mostly)
    • Be prepared to trigger a thoughtful investment plan at a moments notice

    For those of you who consider yourselves to be "serious investors," I welcome you to enter a discussion on these topics of the timing of the market bottom, and the best places to invest our funds.

    As an example, the Transportation sector has taken a heavy beating in stock prices, particularly the large airlines and hotel/resort chains. I see that as a real opportunity when I think the bottom is near. Everyone I know has canceled their travel plans, both pleasure and business, for the next six months. Most sports and entertainment events have either been canceled or postponed. I believe there will be a huge pent-up demand for travel after the CV scare passes, and we'll see those stocks rise rapidly. Do you disagree? Let's discuss. What other CV-caused changes will drive demands for products or services post-CV?

    What are your investment thoughts as we approach the bottom?


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    The Co-op.
    Last edited by Skyman; 13th March 2020 at 20:34.

  3. #3
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Great thread, I was thinking of posting a similar thing.

    Banks are going to be tempting, but I’m of the thought now it’s the banks that will be bailing out the country, so will bank shares take a long time to recover?

    As you say travel based shares should shoot up when the good feeling is back, but when that is who knows?

  4. #4
    Grand Master MartynJC (UK)'s Avatar
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    I suggest Tracker Funds - which are low cost, you can hedge by tracking different sectors.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MartynJC (UK) View Post
    I suggest Tracker Funds - which are low cost, you can hedge by tracking different sectors.
    Hardly cutting edge investment strategy.

  6. #6
    Grand Master MartynJC (UK)'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyman View Post
    Hardly cutting edge investment strategy.
    . He was asking for a thoughtful strategy - that is my thought.

    i would suggest Tech Companies tracker.
    Last edited by MartynJC (UK); 13th March 2020 at 21:18.

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    I can’t see anyone could answer that without full understanding of existing assets, lifestyle and objectives.

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    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    I can’t see anyone could answer that without full understanding of existing assets, lifestyle and objectives.
    I think a lot of investors will be looking at this situation as a way to "buy low" and ride the wave back up to make some relatively easy profits, regardless of your assets, lifestyle, etc.

    For example, American Airlines stock has traded at a 12-month high of $35. One month ago it was trading at $29. Today it closed at $14. In the near future, I'm going to be all over that stock, unless others drive it up before I make my decision.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Great thread, I was thinking of posting a similar thing.

    Banks are going to be tempting, but I’m of the thought now it’s the banks that will be bailing out the country, so will bank shares take a long time to recover?

    As you say travel based shares should shoot up when the good feeling is back, but when that is who knows?
    I agree people not paying loans or mortgages.

  10. #10
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    Just because it was once high doesn't mean it's going to go back up. Have a look at INTU shares over the last five years.

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    I'm not sure about travel. Cruises will be tarnished for a long time to come as floating bio-farms . Some airlines will be gone. Companies who are forced to video conference may never change back.

    If you're looking for recovery then long term oil may be decent. Oil is down not only due to Corvid but Saudi fecking around and over supplying to force Russia and the US to cut back. There's a double recovery position with big oil...

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by 33JS View Post
    I'm not sure about travel. Cruises will be tarnished for a long time to come as floating bio-farms . Some airlines will be gone. Companies who are forced to video conference may never change back.

    If you're looking for recovery then long term oil may be decent. Oil is down not only due to Corvid but Saudi fecking around and over supplying to force Russia and the US to cut back. There's a double recovery position with big oil...
    I would rather go for new energy, I think this crisis will be a life changer..

  13. #13
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    British Airways - get on it with everything you got!













    Actually don’t...

  14. #14
    I’m thinking Far East as they will hopefully get over this first.

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    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    I’m thinking Far East as they will hopefully get over this first.
    I think there is a fair chance of this.
    Until the next one.

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    I'm taking a medium term view on Citrix; as working from home becomes more prevalent and companies invest in the architecture to support this should see solid growth in this area.

    Otherwise there are plenty of rebound stocks to keep track of, airlines, restaurants etc. Those that survive will likely see meteoric rises if this blows over.

  17. #17
    Having worked in the sector for nearly 20 years, I would fall back on an old saying...listen to everyone, trust no-one. A 'serious investor' (to quote the OP) is not necessarily a wise one ;).

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  18. #18
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kozza6 View Post
    Having worked in the sector for nearly 20 years, I would fall back on an old saying...listen to everyone, trust no-one. A 'serious investor' (to quote the OP) is not necessarily a wise one ;).
    I'll second that motion!

  19. #19
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
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    Yes you did PC and frankly at your age received wisdom is that only a smallish fraction of your wealth should still even be in the markets

  20. #20
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Yes you did PC and frankly at your age received wisdom is that only a smallish fraction of your wealth should still even be in the markets
    I was completely out of the equity markets on Feb 25. Now it's wait and see...

  21. #21
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    I was completely out of the equity markets on Feb 25. Now it's wait and see...
    Indeed PC wise move I recall congratulating you.

  22. #22
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    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    I cashed in the lion share of my sipp funds about twelve days ago to transfer from HL to Vanguard with the intention of buying back into the LS80 (with lower fees).

    The cash transfer has ages taken but it means most of my money has been out of the market and therefore not affected by the majority of the market drop.

    Vanguard allows me to buy into their funds or ETF, not sure what to do.

    Sticking with my original approach of LS80 or even LS100 seems less risky but with slower growth.


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    Last edited by T1ckT0ck; 14th March 2020 at 09:49.

  23. #23
    Master ~dadam02~'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by T1ckT0ck View Post
    I cashed in the lion share of my sipp funds about twelve days ago to transfer from HL to Vanguard with the intention of buying back into the LS80 (with lower fees).

    The cash transfer has ages taken but it means most of my money has been out of the market and therefore not affected by the majority of the market drop.

    Vanguard allows me to buy into their funds or ETF, not sure what to do.

    Sticking with my original approach of LS80 or even LS100 seems less risky but with slower growth.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I cashed out of mine also some weeks back and just sitting on cash. Have saved myself a not insignificant amount of money with the timing also and going to mostly sit tight on the bulk of the cash for the time being. We are not at the bottom of the market by a long shot, imo.

  24. #24
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    I do think markets are presenting great opportunities to invest in the medium/long term, but being no expert - just going to buy ETF trackers in small chunks over the next few weeks/months.

  25. #25
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Little risky this approach, I'm tempted to buy blue chip shares in the right sector with the intention of buying/selling over small percentage moves, plenty of solid shares that are going up/down by 3-5%, if your investment for some reason drops too much you should have the safety of a large stable company that will come back in the medium to long term.

    Its also much easier now with trading apps, plus I work from home so can watch it very closely..

  26. #26
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    I'm leaving my investments in mostly index trackers and drip feeding into that and funds like Fundsmith, Lindsell Train etc each month. Yeah it may go down a lot more but I'm taking a 20 year view and I'll be putting a lot more in over the next 20 years than what I currently have so I'll just try not to look at the carnage at the moment and thing about the future

  27. #27
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    One part of successful investing is knowing when to take a holiday. The chances are most stuff will continue going down in price for 6 months or so, so stick it in a bank and earn your quarter of one per cent. The time to make decent money is when certainty starts to come back. Time to relax.

  28. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    One part of successful investing is knowing when to take a holiday. The chances are most stuff will continue going down in price for 6 months or so, so stick it in a bank and earn your quarter of one per cent. The time to make decent money is when certainty starts to come back. Time to relax.
    I doubt that most stuff will go down for the next 6 months. Some clearly bottomed out and have bounced back up somewhat already.

    Vulnerable companies and industries have and will continue to suffer in the short term, or some possibly no long exist.

    No one has a crystal ball - but informed decisions, and or personal risk parameters can be taken into account and acted on accordingly.
    It's just a matter of time...

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omegamanic View Post
    I doubt that most stuff will go down for the next 6 months. Some clearly bottomed out and have bounced back up somewhat already.

    Vulnerable companies and industries have and will continue to suffer in the short term, or some possibly no long exist.

    No one has a crystal ball - but informed decisions, and or personal risk parameters can be taken into account and acted on accordingly.
    The truth is that absolutely no one really knows the answer to that. This is not not a financial market crash in the true sense, it is a crash due to the uncertainty of globalisation. Can a retailer sell a product in a few months time when a bit of it is made in China, another bit in Mexico and another bit from Korea. No one knows how long it will take for normal business to resume and even if companies can survive in the meantime. The pandemic may last but a few months but the effects in the long term are still guessable.

    To say that the market has clearly bottomed out is a bit blaise. It will undoubtably bounce up and will probably bounce back up with a vengeance once supply chains are re established but the timing is far from certain.

  30. #30
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    The truth is that absolutely no one really knows the answer to that.............
    Where are you at the moment Mick, in the UK or locked up in Spain?

  31. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    The truth is that absolutely no one really knows the answer to that. This is not not a financial market crash in the true sense, it is a crash due to the uncertainty of globalisation. Can a retailer sell a product in a few months time when a bit of it is made in China, another bit in Mexico and another bit from Korea. No one knows how long it will take for normal business to resume and even if companies can survive in the meantime. The pandemic may last but a few months but the effects in the long term are still guessable.

    To say that the market has clearly bottomed out is a bit blaise. It will undoubtably bounce up and will probably bounce back up with a vengeance once supply chains are re established but the timing is far from certain.
    I don’t think anyone has said “the market has clearly bottomed out”, certainly not me in my post, but I guarantee that some stock prices saw their bottom price or damn close to it already - some not.

    Likewise - Some companies, and markets have intrinsic value that were overly affected by panic selling - but they, the ones that have value in any market, will be fine in the mid to long term.

    While I’m sure others on here have seen more market drops than me over the years, but I’ve seen my fair share and ran share dealing departments in the past - this is nothing new, only the cause.
    It's just a matter of time...

  32. #32
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    One part of successful investing is knowing when to take a holiday. The chances are most stuff will continue going down in price for 6 months or so, so stick it in a bank and earn your quarter of one per cent. The time to make decent money is when certainty starts to come back. Time to relax.
    With all due respect, I think "taking a holiday" and just "relaxing" is what NOT to do in this type of crisis. The pros are watching carefully for signs that CV is starting to be controlled, and that the impact on business will be ending. When those signs appear, the market will start moving back up quickly and the prime buying opportunities will vanish in short order.

  33. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    With all due respect, I think "taking a holiday" and just "relaxing" is what NOT to do in this type of crisis. The pros are watching carefully for signs that CV is starting to be controlled, and that the impact on business will be ending. When those signs appear, the market will start moving back up quickly and the prime buying opportunities will vanish in short order.
    With all due respect there is a difference between taking a holiday and switching off.

  34. #34
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    Tesla up over 6%

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    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    This is the reason why BTC jumped a short while ago:



    Difficult enough with all the misinformation posted all over the internet, but this is the second time in a few days that elonm741 has posted stuff with the only intention to pour gasoline into the fire.

    I am speechless.

  36. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I'm leaving my investments in mostly index trackers and drip feeding into that and funds like Fundsmith, Lindsell Train etc each month. Yeah it may go down a lot more but I'm taking a 20 year view and I'll be putting a lot more in over the next 20 years than what I currently have so I'll just try not to look at the carnage at the moment and thing about the future
    +1

    While the short term may present opportunities I invest for the long term / value.


    Do need to find a good S&p tracker - any ideas.

  37. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by j17ykp View Post
    Do need to find a good S&p tracker - any ideas.
    Vanguard would be worth looking at

  38. #38
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    You don't have the single worst day of trading since Oct 1987 and then that's, the bottom was found, back to normal (for some companies).

    The charts are like a bouncing ball going down a set of stairs right now.

  39. #39
    I suggest everyone to read this Bloomberg article about the trading volumes - "Another Day, Another $2 Trillion Has Stock Traders Shuddering"

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...er-what-s-next

  40. #40

  41. #41
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    I suggest everyone to read this Bloomberg article about the trading volumes - "Another Day, Another $2 Trillion Has Stock Traders Shuddering"

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...er-what-s-next
    Interesting, the last paragraph certainly adds some uncertainty -

    "That’s a good thing because it’s telling you that we’re reaching a panic level. And we always like to say: Try to look for peak panic. Have we gotten there yet? Maybe not yet.”

  42. #42
    Unbelievable how in the most challenging of times, when many are thinking about others. Some only look on how to make a fast buck.

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  43. #43
    I will reiterate..do your own research please. Many well-educated people on here but a lack of financial acumen. Do not act on the basis of uninformed opinion.....

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  44. #44
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
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    ooof that's a punch to the gut Max, my sympathies. I suspect, as with '08 the financial infrastructure, the banks, will be supported and bailed out.

  45. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    ooof that's a punch to the gut Max, my sympathies. I suspect, as with '08 the financial infrastructure, the banks, will be supported and bailed out.
    I don't know - who bails out the bailer outers?

  46. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Max... View Post
    I don't know - who bails out the bailer outers?
    Tax payers last time so unless all economic activity ceases and the economy just stops completely never to restart I think more creative use of the same.


    Unless maybe this is the big one requiring a global debt jubilee and reboot of the system, but that seems fantastical, the billionaires would never go for it. Lolz.
    Last edited by Passenger; 16th March 2020 at 12:54.

  47. #47
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    I just hope nobody acts on some of the gibberish posted in this thread. The fact that a stock has tanked by 50% cannot be a reason to buy it.

    If you have no experience, talk to someone who does. Don't take advice from uninformed strangers in the internet. This is dangerous.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  48. #48
    I just feel for those whose pensions, or plans for taking tax free sums, or similar withdrawals from any pots, are suffering from the current slump. I have a close friend who has asked to cash in two weeks ago, for an agreed house build, but looks like there have been delays in dealing with the request, which has then seen her pension fall significantly.

    I do feel that mid to long term there is no need to be fearful, or panic.

    I’m not so sure it’s about people trying to make a quick buck while others are suffering. I think it’s more about acting accordingly, if possible, to market conditions.

    Of course the correct thing is to get professional advice - but that does not guarantee that you will go unscathed.

    For the record, I’m not diving head first back into any market any time soon, but I watched others buy in already and make substantial amounts after the first massive drop.
    Last edited by Omegamanic; 15th March 2020 at 09:32.

  49. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I just hope nobody acts on some of the gibberish posted in this thread. The fact that a stock has tanked by 50% cannot be a reason to buy it.

    If you have no experience, talk to someone who does. Don't take advice from uninformed strangers in the internet. This is dangerous.
    Buying equities is, and always as been, a gamble. Even 12 year old kids know that.


    You buy equities at your own risk and you, and you alone, are responsible for any profits or losses made. Even professional advice is in all reality next to worthless. If you cannot trust your own judgement, stick your cash somewhere safe like a bank. Oh and before you come back with some snide retort, even my advice is as worthless as yours.

  50. #50
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Buying equities is not and was never a gamble. It's a form of investment by participating in the economic risk of the underlying company. It has an inherent higher risk and reward than other forms of investment and may not be for everybody. But it is definitely not gambling.

    As long as people are posting such statements of very limited intellectual value, this thread will serve no other utility than to identify the idiots.

    :banghead:
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

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