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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #6751
    Craftsman T1ckT0ck's Avatar
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    We exchanged contracts on black Wednesday (1992), we were petrified with the change in interest rates that day 15% but settled back to 10% by end of day (so missus says). First house (32k) hard up as hell and very scared!


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  2. #6752
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    At this moment, I am contemplating SELL EVERYTHING. At 73 and retired, we don't have the time horizon to take a beating now.

  3. #6753
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    But in the 80s the equivalent of multi-trillion money printing was not going on. Plus stock markets and house prices reflected the interest rates at the time. Try being a home owner in the U.K. in the early 90s if you were not repossessed.

    The FED has a mandate to sustain an average of 2% inflation. 5% average inflation would result in QT and interest rates rises and increase in bond yields.

    Stock market and housing market would implode as everything is currently propped up on almost free unlimited money.

    A 1% increase in interest rates correlates with a 10% fall in house prices based on affordability.

    Another interesting statistic is that if bond yields where to rise to 5%, the US government would spend 30% of GDP on interest payments. Or monetise the debt and then it truly would be game over.
    What a nonsense.
    #plantpot

  4. #6754
    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    At this moment, I am contemplating SELL EVERYTHING. At 73 and retired, we don't have the time horizon to take a beating now.
    I know the feeling, I have taken everything I need for the next three years out of shares, but I have a classic risk averse nature.

  5. #6755
    Quote Originally Posted by T1ckT0ck View Post
    We exchanged contracts on black Wednesday (1992), we were petrified with the change in interest rates that day 15% but settled back to 10% by end of day (so missus says). First house (32k) hard up as hell and very scared!


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    I had 10 quid left after mortgage came out so we bought 3 bottles of wine, happy days

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  6. #6756
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    For all you youngsters who only ever think that interest rates the stock market and house prices only go one way.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday
    To be fair us youngsters weren't able to buy a house for £80k that was worth a million quid 20 years later so swings and roundabouts and all that.

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  7. #6757
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    Quote Originally Posted by I AM LATE! View Post
    I know the feeling, I have taken everything I need for the next three years out of shares, but I have a classic risk averse nature.
    That's not risk averse, just common sense!

    Three years of expected expenditure in cash, years 4-5 in bonds or similar and longer term stuff in equities.

  8. #6758
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    What a nonsense.
    What bit? The house market?

    Source.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/business...prices/241504/

  9. #6759
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    To be fair us youngsters weren't able to buy a house for £80k that was worth a million quid 20 years later so swings and roundabouts and all that.

    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
    I would be effing furious if I was a youngster now, but nothing will change until they all start voting in general elections en masse.

    Youngsters are easy meat for successive governments who only care about the people who vote for them.

  10. #6760
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    What bit? The house market?

    Source.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/business...prices/241504/
    Interest rates will rise to levels not seen in a few years. The end is nigh!

    BS fearmongering.

    Those stupid low rates have fuelled an epic housing bubble. Let the prices correct. I hope they do. How else shall any of the younger generation ever own a house?
    #plantpot

  11. #6761
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Let the prices correct. I hope they do. How else shall any of the younger generation ever own a house?
    I fully agree. I am not selfish. With older teenagers living in SW London area, they are destined to rent there whole life if they want to stay in the area. Maybe a 1 or 2 bed flat purchase outside the M25 if they are lucky with BOMAD.

    Unfortunately if they do correct it’s usually still the youngsters with eye watering amount of mortgage gearing that take most of the pain.

  12. #6762
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    While I am rolling on the floor laughing about the Technoking's BTC tweet, it has also hit my Coinbase position. Tomorrow is earnings, but unfortunately only after hours. I hope we get there without further losses.
    #plantpot

  13. #6763
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Pre-market just now versus close yesterday:

    Bitcoin: unchanged.

    MSTR: -6%
    Argo: -12%
    MARA: -20%
    RIOT: -17%
    After yesterday's early sell-off and subsequent recovery, BTC stocks had a bad day today - until Elon pushed them over the edge and bad became worse.

    MSTR: -12.5%
    Argo: $1.90 = 135p, which is 10% below UK close
    MARA: -27%
    RIOT: -24.5%
    #plantpot

  14. #6764
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    While I am rolling on the floor laughing about the Technoking's BTC tweet, it has also hit my Coinbase position. Tomorrow is earnings, but unfortunately only after hours. I hope we get there without further losses.
    Just looked at BTC trading on Coinbase. Volumes exploded after Elon's tweet. Wouldn't it be nice if they did a record volume day?

    Doesn't matter if it goes up or down, it is the volume that counts. Bullish.


    #plantpot

  15. #6765
    Glad I waited on Doooge, thought Musk might light up the sky on SNL, instead he waits 3 days and comes over all Greta ish

    Buying the dip to the moon!

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  16. #6766
    View on Doge

    https://youtu.be/grGauqJyiSA

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  17. #6767
    Craftsman Halitosis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin Case View Post
    That’s crazy. Mine is 1.57%.
    I just remortgaged to a 5 year fixed rate 1.28%. It almost feels like free money

  18. #6768
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    I remember how we felt lucky to get 'only' 6.79 per cent Fix on our first mortgage, I'd watched people getting clobbered with 12 per cent plus about a decade before hand, learnt/ appreciated that living or dying by interest rate would be no fun. Historical average is 6 to 7 percent.

    Sure the low rates of today feel like free money, but the prudent and responsible/ risk or gambling adverse savers have been robbed of real/safe returns on savings, no chance of using steady gains from the miracle of compounding...overall it stinks what they've...Govt's/ Central Banks, have done to 'money' but we are where we are...Hence crypto hustles and Rolex futures.
    Last edited by Passenger; 13th May 2021 at 09:43. Reason: misrecalled mortgage rate

  19. #6769
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    I remember how we felt lucky to get 'only' 6.79 per cent Fix on our first mortgage, I'd watched people getting clobbered with 12 per cent plus about a decade before hand, learnt/ appreciated that living or dying by interest rate would be no fun. Historical average is 6 to 7 percent.

    Sure the low rates of today feel like free money, but the prudent and responsible/ risk or gambling adverse savers have been robbed of real/safe returns on savings, no chance of using steady gains from the miracle of compounding...overall it stinks what they've...Govt's/ Central Banks, have done to 'money' but we are where we are...Hence crypto hustles and Rolex futures.
    I would rather have todays environment of low interest rates and low inflation as apposed to high interest rates and high inflation. Life is a lot easier now a days.

  20. #6770
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    #plantpot

  21. #6771
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    I would rather have todays environment of low interest rates and low inflation as apposed to high interest rates and high inflation. Life is a lot easier now a days.
    Yet we have high, thanks to Rishi... runaway house price inflation nowadays, coupled with zero return on cash. I would rather have money still being worth something...it is after all fundamentally an expression, store and measure of our 'excess' life/work... and the housing market semi controlled via a return to summat like normal interest rate policy rather than keep debauching the currency with all it's marvellous bubbly knock ons'... but diff'rent strokes.

    I dunno IF lifes easier nowadays, it seems more folks have considerably less security nowadays in all the ways that matter.
    Last edited by Passenger; 13th May 2021 at 10:18.

  22. #6772
    Another 2% gone off the ftse

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  23. #6773
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Yet we have high, thanks to Rishi... runaway house price inflation nowadays, coupled with zero return on cash. I would rather have money still being worth something...it is after all fundamentally an expression, store and measure of our 'excess' life/work... and the housing market semi controlled via a return to summat like normal interest rate policy but diff'rent strokes.

    I dunno IF lifes easier nowadays, it seems more folks have considerably less security nowadays in all the ways that matter.
    Life was very complicated back in the 1970s when inflation hit 26.8% and a lot of pensioners had fixed rate incomes. I think most of us have it bloody easy now-a-days in comparison to as it what back then.

    House prices were cheaper relative to income but the high mortgage rates made house ownership damn difficult.

  24. #6774
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    #plantpot

  25. #6775
    Master Chinnock's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Yet we have high, thanks to Rishi... runaway house price inflation nowadays, coupled with zero return on cash. I would rather have money still being worth something...it is after all fundamentally an expression, store and measure of our 'excess' life/work... and the housing market semi controlled via a return to summat like normal interest rate policy rather than keep debauching the currency with all it's marvellous bubbly knock ons'... but diff'rent strokes.

    I dunno IF lifes easier nowadays, it seems more folks have considerably less security nowadays in all the ways that matter.
    Just wait for the Inflation Tsunami. It's coming!

  26. #6776
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chinnock View Post
    Just wait for the Inflation Tsunami. It's coming!
    It won't.
    #plantpot

  27. #6777
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    Life was very complicated back in the 1970s when inflation hit 26.8% and a lot of pensioners had fixed rate incomes. I think most of us have it bloody easy now-a-days in comparison to as it what back then.

    House prices were cheaper relative to income but the high mortgage rates made house ownership damn difficult.
    I was a little kid in the 70's so my memory is a bit blurred, had things other than inflation on my mind... didn't the IMF step in and bail out Blighty mid 70's, a year or two after the UK joined the EU, thus with a little help from our friends things then improved.

    Tbh Mick respectfully how would you know what/ how someone today in their late teens or early 20's starting out, is going to find life...insecurity of job/ income like never before, automation, offshoring and AI coming for the middle classes wholesale just as with the working classes, house prices and education costs/ debts only going one way. They can't even use interest/ compounding to build a nest egg IF they've got any spare money too save...nowadays it's easy to see why there's so many get rich quick hustles, much feels speculative and impermanent....Great if you own the assets, employ cheap labour not so great if you're selling the labour.

  28. #6778
    Please can someone tell me when I can check my pension again cheers

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  29. #6779
    On another note, does anyone remotely believe Musk *suddenly* discovered bitcoin mining uses energy?

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  30. #6780
    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    They can't even use interest/ compounding to build a nest egg IF they've got any spare money too save...
    Can’t be many of them with that as top of priority list. More about having enough coin to go out of a weekend and get sloshed in best designer clobber.

    Despite the bleak picture you paint I still think there is plenty opportunity out there for people willing to work hard and grasp opportunities.

    Too many waste years doing daft degrees that lead to nothing.

  31. #6781
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    #plantpot

  32. #6782
    Master Caruso's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Please can someone tell me when I can check my pension again cheers

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    https://www.gov.uk/check-state-pension

  33. #6783
    Quote Originally Posted by Caruso View Post
    Lol

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  34. #6784
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Excellent piece



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  35. #6785
    Craftsman PJdB's Avatar
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    I have most of my savings sitting in a 0.7% cash ISA, - I have no experience or time to continually research investments, - would like to lock it away for a good 5 - 10 years, so I was thinking of moving it all into a Vanguard Lifestrategy
    https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/w...ategy-products

    I'd prefer something moderate to aggressive, - but given that means more money in equities, - do you think this is a risky idea at this present time?

  36. #6786
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    Quote Originally Posted by PJdB View Post
    I have most of my savings sitting in a 0.7% cash ISA, - I have no experience or time to continually research investments, - would like to lock it away for a good 5 - 10 years, so I was thinking of moving it all into a Vanguard Lifestrategy
    https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/w...ategy-products

    I'd prefer something moderate to aggressive, - but given that means more money in equities, - do you think this is a risky idea at this present time?
    If you are going to be a passive investor (using LS would be) and can stomach a crash then it is a good choice. UK-biased but not stupidly so. Were you tempted to sell in the crash of 2020? The less risk averse you are, the more that LS20, say, would suit you then LS80 or LS100

    Is now a good time to buy? That's an active investor question - timing the market. If you think the market will trend up over time, invest and forget.

    At a guess, you will be less risk averse during a crash than you think you will be, if you haven't invested before.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    On another note, does anyone remotely believe Musk *suddenly* discovered bitcoin mining uses energy?

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    Exactly what I was wondering and I look forward to reading the Ghost article this evening.

  37. #6787
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thenikjones View Post
    If you are going to be a passive investor (using LS would be) and can stomach a crash then it is a good choice. UK-biased but not stupidly so. Were you tempted to sell in the crash of 2020? The less risk averse you are, the more that LS20, say, would suit you then LS80 or LS100

    Is now a good time to buy? That's an active investor question - timing the market. If you think the market will trend up over time, invest and forget.

    At a guess, you will be less risk averse during a crash than you think you will be, if you haven't invested before.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Exactly what I was wondering and I look forward to reading the Ghost article this evening.
    If you have your money in cash, I would rather buy a smaller position of a risky fund (like LS100) rather than a large position in a less-risky fund (LS20). Reason? The fees.
    #plantpot

  38. #6788
    If going 100% equities I would avoid VLS entirely.

  39. #6789
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    My approach has changed from buying dips to selling rallies.

    As such, I just sold S&P @ 4,116, full position.
    #plantpot

  40. #6790
    Craftsman PJdB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thenikjones View Post
    If you are going to be a passive investor (using LS would be) and can stomach a crash then it is a good choice. UK-biased but not stupidly so. Were you tempted to sell in the crash of 2020? The less risk averse you are, the more that LS20, say, would suit you then LS80 or LS100

    Is now a good time to buy? That's an active investor question - timing the market. If you think the market will trend up over time, invest and forget.

    At a guess, you will be less risk averse during a crash than you think you will be, if you haven't invested before.
    No - never invested before, however I have watched my pension go up and down over the years and always recover. I do feel ready to wait it out and fancy something which is going to work harder for me, - which is why i'm tempted by the 80% VLS one, however if there is a good chance of a crash soon, what with so much money being pumped into the economy... - i'm open to suggestions. I was looking at "evestor" also, which is also beginner friendly and low fees.

    With so much uncertainty in the world at the moment - I don't know what to do, - is there much of a chance that the stock market could crash and not recover for a VERY long time (10 years)? Or is a crash more likely to be 1 - 2 years?

  41. #6791
    Quote Originally Posted by Justin Case View Post
    If going 100% equities I would avoid VLS entirely.
    Why?

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  42. #6792
    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Why?
    Because there are cheaper options that don’t involve a 25% U.K. equity allocation.

    Example - HSBC FTSE All-World - 0.13% vs 0.22 %

  43. #6793
    Quote Originally Posted by Justin Case View Post
    Because there are cheaper options that don’t involve a 25% U.K. equity allocation.

    Example - HSBC FTSE All-World - 0.13% vs 0.22 %
    LS80 is 19% UK 55% global

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  44. #6794
    Quote Originally Posted by Justin Case View Post
    If going 100% equities I would avoid VLS entirely.
    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    LS80 is 19% UK 55% global
    And?

    U.K. is something like 5% of world equity market. VLS is ok if you believe U.K. is set to outperform but to me that is not what passive investing is about. Your’re choosing a bias.
    Last edited by Justin Case; 13th May 2021 at 17:12.

  45. #6795
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    Quote Originally Posted by PJdB View Post
    .... Or is a crash more likely to be 1 - 2 years?
    No one knows ... that’s the trouble.

    My take is diversified assets and invest regularly to smooth out the peaks and troughs.

    My attempts at trying to call the market timing wise have been one good call two bad ... so I’m not trying again ... mix of property, trackers, investment trusts and funds well spread ... and some gold and silver.

  46. #6796
    Quote Originally Posted by Justin Case View Post
    And?

    U.K. is something like 5% of world equity market. VLS is ok if you believe U.K. is set to outperform but to me that is not what passive investing is about. Yourā€™re choosing a bias.
    Well, your paying for someone to make a decision for you , and they have a 22% 12month growth

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  47. #6797
    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Well, your paying for someone to make a decision for you , and they have a 22% 12month growth
    Crack on paying more for less then.


  48. #6798
    Quote Originally Posted by Justin Case View Post
    Crack on paying more for less then.

    Well that's not the full story and i suspect you know that

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  49. #6799
    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Well that's not the full story and i suspect you know that
    What are you on about? That’s a comparison as far back as the data allows.

  50. #6800
    Quote Originally Posted by Justin Case View Post
    What are you on about? That’s a comparison as far back as the data allows.
    I know, and the Vanguard stats are superb

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