When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

[Raffe]

I'm getting pig in a bag fears re SPACs and THCA. Think I might bail. I keep reading there are more SPACs than companies who want to go public and it makes me paranoid.

The downside risk is very limited from here. Either the company announces a merger and will have to offer a public redemption of shares at $10 (or slightly lower, depending on expenses), or it doesn't find a merger target and will return investor money. In both cases, you get $10 or almost $10 back. This is the level where you buy, not sell SPACs.

It really does make sense to read up and understand what you are investing in, trust me on this.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/spac...now-2020-12-01

If you want to sell, just let me know and I will put a bid in for you above the best current bid.


Edited to add: Obviously, not investment advice and even if there is redemption option, that doesn't mean the shares cannot dip to $9.80 or even $9.50 in a market sell-off.

[mr noble]

I don't understand how CLA can manage to trade right down to under $10.30, just 3% over the IPO price, when they are days away from completing their merger with Ouster who are at the forefront on new LiDar technology and have sold their kit to countless companies already.

https://uk.investing.com/equities/co...uisition-chart


Raffe, what are the possible pitfalls for these SPACs when they're in the final stages?


Is it possible that once the merger completes and the ticker changes from CLA to OUST (in this case) that the shares can then drop just like they can with any IPO?

Or does all the new cash that the SPAC has just injected almost guarantee that can't happen?

I'm struggling to see how CLA can only be worth $10.40 just now.

[Raffe]

Cathie Woods out on all channels trying to talk her holdings up. It all rotates around Tesla, if that domino falls all the rest will go as well.

Not very successful, there have been rumours she would tout a new Tesla price target of $ 4,000 but that never happened. Lot's of hopium, nothing of substance.

This thing is heading for $300.

[ryanb741]

Bullish on Argo with BTC going full pump. That share issue yesterday is a red herring - most people applying are getting like $50 allocation so this won't swamp the market although there is an argument to be made for share diluted balanced out by the partial acquisition of a new company so let's see.

Argo at 400p minimum on June 30th. £50 to the Fundraiser if I'm wrong

[Daveya.]

Dow futures took a big dip last night

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[Raffe]

Dow futures took a big dip last night

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Not in my universe.

[Daveya.]

Was about half one , weird dip then came back

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[nick h]

if you can afford to take a loss then start up biotech companies are the best

look at Pfizer BioNtech in the covid vaccines?

the BioNtech arm may earn 7 BILLION!!!

big pharma only looks to develop 'life' drugs - those you have to take for the rest of your life

antibiotics are not good business for big pharma - you take a seven day course

so big pharma buys up small biotech companies who have made breakthroughs in the likes of antibiotics but cannot manufacture and take to market

its a high risk, potential huge reward investment

[Raffe]

Was about half one , weird dip then came back

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Where?

The move from 32,000 to 31,800 ?

That is 0.6%.

[Daveya.]

Where?

The move from 32,000 to 31,800 ?

That is 0.6%.

Ah ok

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[Raffe]

This is relevant: Chinese state funds intervened tonight buying equities.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china...024740712.html

Still, the S&P500 futures fell back to yesterday's closing level this morning after Asian markets closed. I will hold on to my long position from yesterday regardless, feel tempted to increase position size. I think we will see a sizable rally today.

[Raffe]

Bullish on Argo with BTC going full pump. That share issue yesterday is a red herring - most people applying are getting like $50 allocation so this won't swamp the market although there is an argument to be made for share diluted balanced out by the partial acquisition of a new company so let's see.

Argo at 400p minimum on June 30th. £50 to the Fundraiser if I'm wrong

260p early indications.

[Raffe]

SMT and BTC will go back up again. I'm holding and just not looking at the portfolio for a while. I'm tempted to buy more Argo. Tesla is hardly getting routed, unless folks here consider a 20% drop in a couple of weeks a 'rout'? And SMT is just at the point it was in Jan. It'll rose again sure as eggs is eggs. One day this week it'll rise 10% in a day I reckon.

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Did Tesla 'get routed'?
Did SMT rise 10% in a day?

[ryanb741]

Did Tesla 'get routed'?
Did SMT rise 10% in a day?

Not yet. Not yet.

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[Raffe]

Not yet. Not yet.

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A drop of 38% in six weeks is not a rout?

Please define rout.

[ryanb741]

A drop of 38% in six weeks is not a rout?

Please define rout.

This time last year TSLA was at 121p. Assuming investment is a longer term view practice I'd say this represents the absolute opposite of a rout

[uktotty]

UiPath are going to IPO in a couple of months, as the fastest growing software company since the dawn of time, this could be a good investment.

[Raffe]

UiPath are going to IPO in a couple of months, as the fastest growing software company since the dawn of time, this could be a good investment.

$400 mio revenue and 3,000 employees after >15 years makes them the fastest growing software company of all times?

You go first.

[murkeywaters]

This time last year TSLA was at 121p. Assuming investment is a longer term view practice I'd say this represents the absolute opposite of a rout

Wasn’t Tesla this time last year operating on a 5th of the current allocated shares?
They went to 900+ and then got cut into 5ths and have since done very well, in old money are they not worth nigh on 2950 if you had invested pre stock split?

[Raffe]

... investment is a longer term view ...

[Raffe]

Wasn’t Tesla this time last year operating on a 5th of the current allocated shares?
They went to 900+ and then got cut into 5ths and have since done very well, in old money are they not worth nigh on 2950 if you had invested pre stock split?

$121 close on 9 March 2020 is split-adjusted, so a proper like-for-like comparison.

[murkeywaters]

$121 close on 9 March 2020 is split-adjusted, so a proper like-for-like comparison.

Ahh right, I know the split was around August but didn't presume Ryan used the post split figures, even so, if you had invested pre split you would still be doing very well..

[Raffe]

Ahh right, I know the split was around August but didn't presume Ryan used the post split figures, even so, if you had invested pre split you would still be doing very well..

Well that was Ryan's point, which doesn't change the fact that the shares are down 38% from peak and as such in a bear market. Most of the WSB investors will be under water with their Tesla investments, I assume that'll be a proper test of diamond hands.

[uktotty]

$400 mio revenue and 3,000 employees after >15 years makes them the fastest growing software company of all times?

You go first.

Market Cap $40bn

Named a 2020 CNBC Disruptor 50 company, UiPath was recognized as the fastest growing technology company in the Americas according to FT Americas’ Fastest Growing Companies 2020 and named the top company on Deloitte’s 2019 Technology Fast 500, a ranking of the fastest growing public and private technology companies in North America.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...companies%20in

[Bondurant]

They are in a pretty hot area to be fair and it's a market that has only recently started to take off with automation underpinning the shift to digital business.

[Raffe]

Market Cap $40bn

Named a 2020 CNBC Disruptor 50 company, UiPath was recognized as the fastest growing technology company in the Americas according to FT Americas’ Fastest Growing Companies 2020 and named the top company on Deloitte’s 2019 Technology Fast 500, a ranking of the fastest growing public and private technology companies in North America.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...companies%20in

100 times revenue??? Only in 2021. Wouldn't touch with a borrowed one.

They are in a pretty hot area to be fair and it's a market that has only recently started to take off with automation underpinning the shift to digital business.

I know a bit about that particular market area, most of my net worth is invested in it. Nothing wrong with it, but the proposed valuation is beyond insane.

[Bondurant]

Yes, fair enough

[ryanb741]

Some investment advice received elsewhere today;

Things seem to be drifting back to normal. Tesla is now only 10x over valued, FTSE is returning, Europe is steady.

Think I’ll top up HINT or do nothing.

[Raffe]

[Daveya.]

Lol

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[peterdo]

Ha ha, that generated a proper chuckle!


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[Crammage]

Raffe 😂

[Montello]

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/...hares/14892052

Am I reading that correctly that they are using their own capital to buy back their own shares?

[Raffe]

Am I reading that correctly that they are using their own capital to buy back their own shares?

Yep, as Ally posted: the trust is trading on the stock exchange and the price is lower than its NAV, so buying shares helps to reduce the discount and could be a good investment. But it's also a dangerous game and I don't find it very tidy if fund managers are trying to manipulate the price (even if it is versus the NAV).

[Montello]

Yep, as Ally posted: the trust is trading on the stock exchange and the price is lower than its NAV, so buying shares helps to reduce the discount and could be a good investment. But it's also a dangerous game and I don't find it very tidy if fund managers are trying to manipulate the price (even if it is versus the NAV).

An investment trust should invest capital.

Using it to buy back shares in itself makes me think they have run out of ideas and are trying to support their own price.

[mr noble]

An investment trust should invest capital.

Using it to buy back shares in itself makes me think they have run out of ideas and are trying to support their own price.

Indeed. I think todays and yesterdays uptick is a bounce before a further drop.

[Montello]

Indeed. I think todays and yesterdays uptick is a bounce before a further drop.

Time will tell, Nasdaq has opened 3% up ... seems like the correct level for the Nasdaq is a long way off the current level but I can’t see any signs of a slow down.

[Raffe]

As I wrote yesterday, prepare for a period with large swings in both directions (luckily there is only up and down, imagine it was three dimensions...?). I am long SP500 in futures and options and long Tesla today, looking for a decent move up.

Will decide on profit levels later during session.

[tommyzzj]

This is relevant: Chinese state funds intervened tonight buying equities.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china...024740712.html

Still, the S&P500 futures fell back to yesterday's closing level this morning after Asian markets closed. I will hold on to my long position from yesterday regardless, feel tempted to increase position size. I think we will see a sizable rally today.

Tigr back up to $18 at one point, where do you see this go Raffe?

[Raffe]

Tigr back up to $18 at one point, where do you see this go Raffe?

Volatile.

I don't think the correction is over, that's why I am sitting and watching. Looking to buy lower at a later point in time.

If you have some, might want to look to lighten up at or above $20 in order to buy back cheaper?



** sold half of my TSLA at $615 already. Rest will go at $625.

T/P levels in ES: 3,890 and 3,912.

A good day (so far).

[tommyzzj]

Volatile.

I don't think the correction is over, that's why I am sitting and watching. Looking to buy lower at a later point in time.

If you have some, might want to look to lighten up at or above $20 in order to buy back cheaper?



** sold half of my TSLA at $615 already. Rest will go at $625.

T/P levels in ES: 3,890 and 3,912.

A good day (so far).

Thanks - sold half my position @ around 19.4, will see where this goes in the next few hours.

[thegreatdogwood]

An investment trust should invest capital.

Using it to buy back shares in itself makes me think they have run out of ideas and are trying to support their own price.

Or think it is a better use of capital if their unit price is structurally undervalued as a discount to NAV would suggest. Common practice as a parallel for Propcos, McKay securities for instance have just started a buy back program.

[Montello]

Or think it is a better use of capital if their unit price is structurally undervalued as a discount to NAV would suggest. Common practice as a parallel for Propcos, McKay securities for instance have just started a buy back program.

The discount is only 5% and they often trade at a small premium.

I’d just rather see and IT investing capital not using it to buy back shares.

[~dadam02~]

So are we going to see a monumental smackdown in markets tomorrow or is this upward surge going to stick around for a bit? Trying to work out when to short TSLA again.

[Raffe]

So are we going to see a monumental smackdown in markets tomorrow or is this upward surge going to stick around for a bit? Trying to work out when to short TSLA again.

Haha, same here. Had the right feeling about Tesla today, bought at $585 and $586, but sold far too early at $615 and $625.

Buying some puts as I type this.

[~dadam02~]

Haha, same here. Had the right feeling about Tesla today, bought at $585 and $586, but sold far too early at $615 and $625.

Buying some puts as I type this.

I've been out since Friday afternoon, but a 20% odd intraday rise has certainly piqued interest again. Given what we know of TSLA, surely, surely, we are heading south again..?! Don't know why I feel so reluctant.

Well done on those longs though, sounds like you've played it well recently.

[Raffe]

I've been out since Friday afternoon, but a 20% odd intraday rise has certainly piqued interest again. Given what we know of TSLA, surely, surely, we are heading south again..?! Don't know why I feel so reluctant.

Well done on those longs though, sounds like you've played it well recently.

Might trade up/sideways for a few days, very dependent on the Nasdaq. I just bought some cheap OTM puts, can't go wrong with these.

Bought 300 shares at $585/86, was never lower than $584 after I bought. Those are the days.

[~dadam02~]

Well played that man, great timing.

[jonny]

Might trade up/sideways for a few days, very dependent on the Nasdaq. I just bought some cheap OTM puts, can't go wrong with these.

Bought 300 shares at $585/86, was never lower than $584 after I bought. Those are the days.

Nice trade!

What caused Tesla to jump 18% today?

To put it into perspective the sixth largest company in the USA jumped by 18% or over 100 billion dollars in 1 day, these are not normal times!

[Raffe]

Nice trade!

What caused Tesla to jump 18% today?

To put it into perspective the sixth largest company in the USA jumped by 18% or over 100 billion dollars in 1 day, these are not normal times!

Just crazy. Will fall again, even though maybe not tomorrow.

Closed my Tesla puts again with minimal gain, just didn't feel right.

S&P rammed hard into closing, same as yesterday - which didn't keep it from rallying overnight. I am still very long futures and options.