When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

[Kingstepper]

S&P 500 edging a little closer to 3000, I wonder if it can break through the barrier, its been flirting with the 3000 for weeks now and when its been around 2950 its always fallen back so far.

All my US funds/IT (not all tech stuff) have now all recovered to precov19 prices( 2 of them have reached all time highs, priced higher now than before the meltdown)

Personally it all feels like a bubble!



SMT is now about 13% higher than precovid19!

Yes, mustn’t grumble, my portfolios are at an all-time high.

[Jlynch1984]

Been short Tesla for most of the year and would be heavily in the red if it wasn't for the March sell-off from $800 to $400. I have learned my lesson: it's a cult and common sense doesn't apply - just stay away.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/oilpr...Burst.amp.html

Interesting read. I think it lays out some important points - in Tesla (like tech in the the late 90’s), you are buy into a transformative idea. The problem is that I don’t trust that Elon Musk is capable of pulling it off - great marketer, poor CEO.


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[jonny]

Yes, mustn’t grumble, my portfolios are at an all-time high.

Im not grumbling, more surprised at how quickly the market(my funds/IT) has rebounded

[Daveya.]

Yep, my sipp is now up yoy and only 20k behind pre covid figures

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[Raffe]

Buy buy buy.

[Montello]

Buy buy buy.

When will the elastic snap?

[Bondurant]

When the results are shocking.

[Montello]

When the results are shocking.

End of Q2 then ...

[Bondurant]

You would think.

[crazyp]

End of Q2 then ...

This is my assessment it can be the only answer. I just saw today on the news sites - there are long queues for food banks in the US and markets stay flat. Remarkable.

[Daveya.]

What a larf this is

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[Passenger]

Bye, bye, byeeeeeh

[Montello]

I watched the Big Short again last night ... a timely reminder that Wall St. can get things very wrong.

[Christian]

This is my assessment it can be the only answer. I just saw today on the news sites - there are long queues for food banks in the US and markets stay flat. Remarkable.

Kind of reminds me of this explanation of the stock market...

[Bondurant]

I love that film. Never get tired of watching it.

[dandanthewatchman]

I love that film. Never get tired of watching it.

...... the scene with the security guards watching the CCTV .....


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[Christian]

Wish I’d put some money in airline shares before today’s ridiculous crypto-like leap!

[Hooshabak]

Wish I’d put some money in airline shares before today’s ridiculous crypto-like leap!

I’m currently 30% up on IAG

[Raffe]

Dow to open above 25k today. Happy days.

[Daveya.]

Cummings Billy bonus, forced Boris to announce all the shops cam open earlier

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[WestwardBound]

What do we think about shares in UK student accommodation providers? Currently sat at about 50% of pre-COVID value.

[demonloop]

Anyone on AVCT.L / Avacta ?

Seen a tip for them on another forum, and it's done 30% so far, with some discussion it could get to 500p (currently 199p)

It was a investing thread on a football forum, so proceed with extreme caution!

I check all these tips on barchart and it hasn't let me down (yet!)

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/AVCT.LN/opinion

[miguelh34]

Another day another Vaccine pop

- - - Updated - - -

What do we think about shares in UK student accommodation providers? Currently sat at about 50% of pre-COVID value.

My opinion university sector is in trouble

[Chr1stof]

Wish I’d put some money in airline shares before today’s ridiculous crypto-like leap!

I know, bloody had a couple of investments amongst them including IAG and decided to just consolidate and invest elsewhere as they seemed to be going nowhere atm haha. Nothing major mind you.

What seems to be the reasoning behind the jump in the airlines? Have I missed something or is it just off the back of some more normality measures due in the UK soon?


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[miguelh34]

I know, bloody had a couple of investments amongst them including IAG and decided to just consolidate and invest elsewhere as they seemed to be going nowhere atm haha. Nothing major mind you.

What seems to be the reasoning behind the jump in the airlines? Have I missed something or is it just off the back of some more normality measures due in the UK soon?


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Re opening and hope

[Christian]

The crypto-esque airline leap is because I took Raffe's advice a couple of pages back to not touch airlines with a bargepole. 😂

[mr noble]

It’s all crazy.

I’m seriously thinking this might be the time to bail out fully into cash/gold.


I wish I’d gone with my hunch of IAG too, although there’s still plenty of doom surrounding that sector.

[~dadam02~]

What do we think about shares in UK student accommodation providers? Currently sat at about 50% of pre-COVID value.

Didn't Manchester Uni and some others say next years lectures were all going to be done remotely?

[Daveya.]

Yeah my son starts Uni September but its looking like most unis will have a year of remote lectures

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[wileeeeeey]

Cambridge aren't allowing any in person lectures until at least half way through next year. I wouldn't be keen for student accommodation.

[miguelh34]

Yeah my son starts Uni September but its looking like most unis will have a year of remote lectures

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Yep that is the new trend. Also I think there is the questioning of a degree value . 80% of all UK degree's are either a First or a 2/1

[Peck]

Anyone on AVCT.L / Avacta ?

Seen a tip for them on another forum, and it's done 30% so far, with some discussion it could get to 500p (currently 199p)

It was a investing thread on a football forum, so proceed with extreme caution!

I check all these tips on barchart and it hasn't let me down (yet!)

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/AVCT.LN/opinion

Avacta is an interesting one - their recent growth appears to be on the back of the promise of their affimer technology as a diagnostic (rapid antigen testing in this case) in the short term, and potentially a therapeutic longer term.

I can only really comment with any certainty on the diagnostic side of things. They are very early stage and, in my opinion, being hyped up massively. There is a huge amount of misunderstanding out there (particularly on the small cap forums) about what it takes to get a decent rapid test to market. It’s all well and good these small listed companies issuing press releases saying ‘we have a prototype working in our lab’; this is not the challenge. The challenge lies in developing a functional and reliable real world product quickly enough to impact the market. Test sensitivity is the critical piece of data for rapid antigen tests and to the best of my knowledge so far no one has divulged theirs on an optimised test.

Also, be aware that there are many larger diagnostic firms working on these tests who are not pushing out news releases every five minutes to support their share price. They have been there before, seen it all and know how things are likely to pan out. Orasure, for example, are worth looking at in this respect. They are one of the worlds largest manufacturers of HIV testing and in their most recent investor update suggested they are working on a COVID antigen rapid test that would be available in Fall at the very earliest. Take from that what you will.

Ultimately I see Avacta and it’s peers as a punt. One will make it while 10 will fail, and that failure is almost always catastrophic with these small companies. If you get in early enough, great you can ride the wave of optimism - it’s the harsh reality later in the process that tends to be more painful. Good luck whatever you decide it’s certainly an interesting ride with COVID stocks at the moment!

[tiny73]

It’s all crazy.

I’m seriously thinking this might be the time to bail out fully into cash/gold.

I’m sitting on cash right now waiting for an opportunity to buy in lower (more of an investor than a trader) and everything on my watch list is up by double, and in some cases triple digit %’s.

Now I’m no Warren Buffet but clearly I should have my own multi billion dollar hedge fund cos I’m so good at money. Or it’s all held up by a tissue of lies and cheap central bank money.

[demonloop]

Ultimately I see Avacta and it’s peers as a punt. One will make it while 10 will fail, and that failure is almost always catastrophic with these small companies. If you get in early enough, great you can ride the wave of optimism - it’s the harsh reality later in the process that tends to be more painful. Good luck whatever you decide it’s certainly an interesting ride with COVID stocks at the moment!

Completely agree. My strategy on these stocks is to take anything over 30% gain, or if the price starts to slow before that, cash out.

All brilliant until one goes backwards as you say. I set stop-losses after buying at -20% just in case, in the hope it might save a catastrophe.

[KingKitega]

Avacta has definitely had a great run on hopes they can launch a 5 minute COVID test. They should find out within the next few weeks if that will happen, but if they do - really the potential is enormous, hence why the stock 10x since the news hit, but fail and it will slide all the way back down. I'm pretty new to investing in AIM and it really is a crazy wild market there where +/-10% moves are the norm!

[WestwardBound]

I understand the caution on student accommodations, but 1st years only account for around a third of customers. With retail re-opening, students' income should allow them to pay rent, and how much of the student experience today is actually attending lectures vs the overall experience? If some entertainment reopens by Sep will virtually normal rates of students heading off to uni towns?

[Peck]

Completely agree. My strategy on these stocks is to take anything over 30% gain, or if the price starts to slow before that, cash out.

All brilliant until one goes backwards as you say. I set stop-losses after buying at -20% just in case, in the hope it might save a catastrophe.

Sounds very sensible. Unlike most people on the small cap stock forums that’s for sure!

[wileeeeeey]

Yep that is the new trend. Also I think there is the questioning of a degree value . 80% of all UK degree's are either a First or a 2/1

The first or two-one means nothing. Its not what you get, it's where you get it. A first from where I went wouldn't stack up against third from a uni of substance. If your uni used to be a polytechnic in a lot of eyes it still is, and was never a uni to begin with.

[Peck]

Avacta has definitely had a great run on hopes they can launch a 5 minute COVID test. They should find out within the next few weeks if that will happen, but if they do - really the potential is enormous, hence why the stock 10x since the news hit, but fail and it will slide all the way back down. I'm pretty new to investing in AIM and it really is a crazy wild market there where +/-10% moves are the norm!

Ahh I recognise your handle - I noticed you’ve participated in the avacta forum. I haven’t bothered because I know I’d be tarred as a ‘basher’ within about 5 minutes flat! Good luck I hope you make a few quid

[Kingstepper]

Yep that is the new trend. Also I think there is the questioning of a degree value . 80% of all UK degree's are either a First or a 2/1

Yes, standards have certainly slipped.

[thenikjones]

Yeah my son starts Uni September but its looking like most unis will have a year of remote lectures

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Arts students inconvenienced by libraries being shut, science students stuffed by labs being shut - I had 3 afternoons a week when I was at Imperial, how will they get around that?

[miguelh34]

I understand the caution on student accommodations, but 1st years only account for around a third of customers. With retail re-opening, students' income should allow them to pay rent, and how much of the student experience today is actually attending lectures vs the overall experience? If some entertainment reopens by Sep will virtually normal rates of students heading off to uni towns?

Just cannot see foreign students coming this year compared to years before. A lot of uni's $$$$ comes from foreign students.

[miguelh34]

The first or two-one means nothing. Its not what you get, it's where you get it. A first from where I went wouldn't stack up against third from a uni of substance. If your uni used to be a polytechnic in a lot of eyes it still is, and was never a uni to begin with.

You are right but alot of top uni's have a very very high percentage of the top marks, not just the ex polytechnics.

[KingKitega]

Ahh I recognise your handle - I noticed you’ve participated in the avacta forum. I haven’t bothered because I know I’d be tarred as a ‘basher’ within about 5 minutes flat! Good luck I hope you make a few quid

LOL - you're the second person now to notice. I've dabbled in a few Covid stocks.. AVCT is one that's done well for me, but down a lot (>20%) on a few of them :'(

[Raffe]

Avacta is an interesting one - their recent growth appears to be on the back of the promise of their affimer technology as a diagnostic (rapid antigen testing in this case) in the short term, and potentially a therapeutic longer term.

I can only really comment with any certainty on the diagnostic side of things. They are very early stage and, in my opinion, being hyped up massively. There is a huge amount of misunderstanding out there (particularly on the small cap forums) about what it takes to get a decent rapid test to market. It’s all well and good these small listed companies issuing press releases saying ‘we have a prototype working in our lab’; this is not the challenge. The challenge lies in developing a functional and reliable real world product quickly enough to impact the market. Test sensitivity is the critical piece of data for rapid antigen tests and to the best of my knowledge so far no one has divulged theirs on an optimised test.

Also, be aware that there are many larger diagnostic firms working on these tests who are not pushing out news releases every five minutes to support their share price. They have been there before, seen it all and know how things are likely to pan out. Orasure, for example, are worth looking at in this respect. They are one of the worlds largest manufacturers of HIV testing and in their most recent investor update suggested they are working on a COVID antigen rapid test that would be available in Fall at the very earliest. Take from that what you will.

Ultimately I see Avacta and it’s peers as a punt. One will make it while 10 will fail, and that failure is almost always catastrophic with these small companies. If you get in early enough, great you can ride the wave of optimism - it’s the harsh reality later in the process that tends to be more painful. Good luck whatever you decide it’s certainly an interesting ride with COVID stocks at the moment!

In a binary world, I'd happily bet against any hyped-up vaccine or quick-test stock as less than 10% will ever make it to the market. But these markets can be very difficult to trade if all are going up at the same time and you are short.

Anyone for a good old-fashioned bet? 1,000 quid the test never makes it to the market. You can also pick your vaccine company and I stand ready to bet against it. the more the merrier.

The crypto-esque airline leap is because I took Raffe's advice a couple of pages back to not touch airlines with a bargepole. 

Still wouldn't do it today and I still say that hell will freeze over before anyone buying into the stocks sees a dividend.

Here from Hertz's chapter 11 filing: the development of US air traffic in 2020 versus 2019:

[Peck]

In a binary world, I'd happily bet against any hyped-up vaccine or quick-test stock as less than 10% will ever make it to the market. But these markets can be very difficult to trade if all are going up at the same time and you are short.

Anyone for a good old-fashioned bet? 1,000 quid the test never makes it to the market. You can also pick your vaccine company and I stand ready to bet against it. the more the merrier

Totally agree it’s such a strange time. In the tech space it seems that all those that jumped on the COVID bandwagon are doing well, no matter what the test / vaccine. There are some very big, very unsubstantiated claims out there for sure at the moment.

Thanks, but I won’t be taking that bet because I agree with you Ralf!

[KingKitega]

I'm tempted Raffe to take the other side of the bet! £1,000 too rich for me, but how about £100 and the loser donates it to the fundraiser?

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[Raffe]

I'm tempted Raffe to take the other side of the bet! £1,000 too rich for me, but how about £100 and the loser donates it to the fundraiser?

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Which company? What's the claim, we need to put a date on it.

[KingKitega]

Which company? What's the claim, we need to put a date on it.

That Avacta (LON:AVCT) will get a saliva-based lateral flow rapid test out to market - say by end August. If they don't, I'll stick £100 into Eddie's fundraiser. If they do manage it, you donate £100, and I'll send you a couple tests in the post :)

[Raffe]

That Avacta (LON:AVCT) will get a saliva-based lateral flow rapid test out to market - say by end August. If they don't, I'll stick £100 into Eddie's fundraiser. If they do manage it, you donate £100, and I'll send you a couple tests in the post :)

Bet confirmed.

31st August noon, I put a reminder into the calendar.