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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #3501
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    RR is now up 140% in a week, what happened?

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  2. #3502
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    Quote Originally Posted by xdonolix View Post
    RR is now up 140% in a week, what happened?

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    More buyers than sellers in the low 100s. Suppose also covering of shorts (as evidenced three posts up).

    When all the shorts have closed positions and have gone long, it will tank again. Just wait.

  3. #3503
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    More buyers than sellers in the low 100s. Suppose also covering of shorts (as evidenced three posts up).

    When all the shorts have closed positions and have gone long, it will tank again. Just wait.
    Interesting, I just sold a decent chunk of RR and I'm currently happy with my current holding although if they continue this madness into next week I'll let a few more go, amateurishly I got over exposed several months back and have been watching my loses build up, at £1 a share (last Friday) it didnt look good, never did I think a week later it would be £2.50!

  4. #3504
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Interesting, I just sold a decent chunk of RR and I'm currently happy with my current holding although if they continue this madness into next week I'll let a few more go, amateurishly I got over exposed several months back and have been watching my loses build up, at £1 a share (last Friday) it didnt look good, never did I think a week later it would be £2.50!
    Truly amazing.

    Those kind of things are happening when the outcome of a bet becomes binary: zero (bankruptcy) or not: small sentiment swings in the investment community lead to outsized movements in the underlying stock.

    Well done for selling into the strength if you are considering to downsize positions. It may well trade 50% lower next week (or not). Best approach ist to take your approach and start with half or a third.

  5. #3505
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    Stocks over last week have really been fluctuating with some companies doubling or even tripling in value, I dont currently see any positivity in the news so is it again just down to Joe Bloggs sticking his yearly holiday money into something he's know little about?

  6. #3506
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Stocks over last week have really been fluctuating with some companies doubling or even tripling in value, I dont currently see any positivity in the news so is it again just down to Joe Bloggs sticking his yearly holiday money into something he's know little about?

    Here is one view on it

    https://www.blackrock.com/us/individ...rterly-outlook

    The TLDR is that whilst stocks from a historical perspective may look expensive from a P/E position, what the author refers to as an Equity Risk Position (ERP) (which calculates stocks to bonds in terms of current risk to current reward) then stocks are very inexpensive on a historical basis.

  7. #3507
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    Looks like FOMO ran out for Rolls Royce, be interesting to see where it goes now for the rest of this week.

  8. #3508
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Looks like FOMO ran out for Rolls Royce, be interesting to see where it goes now for the rest of this week.
    Yes, there is talk of BAE Systems buying into RR, its also heading the SMR (Small Modular Reactor) project to install small reactors all over the country, Westminster are apparently getting ready to invest £2 billion in the project so the government can push to meet their green agenda, maybe an announcement this month?

    Combine all this with the rights issue coming up, CV kicking off again and I have absolutely no idea where RR shares are going! Long term, if the SMR is backed RR should rise again but I dont think we'll see £10 a share, after the rights issue an equivalent £10 share price will be £3.33..

  9. #3509
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    I dont think we'll see £10 a share, after the rights issue an equivalent £10 share price will be £3.33..
    Well not exactly. You are forgetting the cash injection.

  10. #3510
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Well not exactly. You are forgetting the cash injection.
    Okay, so I have read all sorts of post rights quoted prices and I guess there is a lot of misinformation out there, what I said above came from somewhere!

    Now you have said about the cash injection I suppose that makes sense, RR will be better off by £2.5 billion but how that figure equates to the stock price is above my threshold of financial knowledge, the way it looks at the moment with stock dropping is that I will be buying my full allocated quota of 10,000 shares at 32p, if I dont then my current average of £3.06 will be a tall figure after rights..

  11. #3511
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Okay, so I have read all sorts of post rights quoted prices and I guess there is a lot of misinformation out there, what I said above came from somewhere!

    Now you have said about the cash injection I suppose that makes sense, RR will be better off by £2.5 billion but how that figure equates to the stock price is above my threshold of financial knowledge, the way it looks at the moment with stock dropping is that I will be buying my full allocated quota of 10,000 shares at 32p, if I dont then my current average of £3.06 will be a tall figure after rights..
    I would look at it in terms of market cap.

    Market cap today: £3.5 bln, shares outstanding 1,930,000,000

    After increase: market cap £3.5 + £2 = £6 bln, shares outstanding 8,363,333,333

    Any development therafter is obviously dependend on how they use the fresh cash (they also take in additional cash via bond sales, but that needs to be repaid with interest). But if you want to compare, before the rights issue £10 gave you a market cap of just under £20 bln, which using the new share count would mean every share is worth 239p.

  12. #3512
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Good for you.

    I have never claimed to be the expert on medtech or pharmaceutical stocks. What I have said is that there is considerable hype around the sector and that there is a one in ten chance of success for any of the vaccines touted (it is actually less than that) and a moderate chance of success for the tests. I have offered to bet against any single of them coming to the market within the suggested time frame, I was taken up on the bet by one member and won it. Nobody has asked me for a bet against Novacyt, I would have taken it like any other (not even sure I would have lost it as we never discussed what the actual deliverable is and the timeline). I am not sure their tests are already fully approved, maybe you can educate us about it (not a lot of press releases by the company)?

    For every winner like Novacyt, there are at least ten losers which will linger in the portfolio for years until they jump on the next hype wagon to pump their shares. Somehow, people never tell us how many of those they own....
    We can come back to NCYT when they are £20 or £30 a share. Shouldnt be long.
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  13. #3513
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    We can come back to NCYT when they are £20 or £30 a share. Shouldnt be long.
    That would put their market cap at around £16bn.

  14. #3514
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    Better hurry and buy some, 100% to 150% performance left on the table.

    Any timeplan for the remaining move? I have a new car coming in six weeks, enough time for a quick doubling of my money?

  15. #3515
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    BTW, I have a 100% fool-proof strategy how you make sure you do not only own the best performing AIM stock, but also number 2, 3, 4 and 5. At the same time, your loss risk is limited to that of a broad AIM-based investment fund.

    I will disclose the strategy to anyone who pays £1 into the forum fundraiser. Money back if it doesn't work. In fact, I give you twice your money back if it doesn't work.

  16. #3516
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    We can come back to NCYT when they are £20 or £30 a share. Shouldnt be long.
    They are doing well, I have them in a watch list after you mentioned them a long time ago, like many I didnt buy into it - unfortunately.

    I just noticed Bitcoin has doubled since March, are we going to see £10k+ per coin soon? I really need to dig out that old 128gb drive!

  17. #3517
    25 year low for BP today, currently 201p.

    Wonder what their takeover price is

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  18. #3518
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    Do we think this is even the bottom for BP/Shell? Doesn't look like it to me.

  19. #3519
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    NOVACYT hit £12 today, could this go all the way to £20, I imagine some people are doing very well with these probably as a punt..

  20. #3520
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Do we think this is even the bottom for BP/Shell? Doesn't look like it to me.
    I do believe that there is value in majors right now... the markets are beating them based on perceived electrification which is supposedly imminent.. it isn’t. Maybe for cars in 15 years but there is a lot more to oil than that. Full disclosure, I work for XOM but if I wanted to put money into oil it would be XOM or maybe Chevon... But it’s a risky and longer term hold.

    Waiting to be shot down on this!

  21. #3521
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    NOVACYT hit £12 today, could this go all the way to £20, I imagine some people are doing very well with these probably as a punt..
    I wish! I bought them in April think I held till July Doh!!!

  22. #3522
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    Just stumbled across the three-times leveraged Tezzler ETCs in my watchlist, I had included them a couple of weeks ago after somebody mentioned them in this thread.

    Here are the closing prices of Tesla stock and the long and short leveraged ETCs from 21 August 2020 and today. During this time, Tesla stock has gone up by 2.59% while the leveraged long ETC has lost 42% and the short ETC lost more than 60%.



  23. #3523
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Just stumbled across the three-times leveraged Tezzler ETCs in my watchlist, I had included them a couple of weeks ago after somebody mentioned them in this thread.

    Here are the closing prices of Tesla stock and the long and short leveraged ETCs from 21 August 2020 and today. During this time, Tesla stock has gone up by 2.59% while the leveraged long ETC has lost 42% and the short ETC lost more than 60%.


    I don’t understand that, how can both the long and short lose?

  24. #3524
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    I don’t understand that, how can both the long and short lose?
    It's simple. Volatility is your enemy when you own these useless products.

    To simplify, assume the stock goes up 10% today and loses 10% tomorrow. Performance:
    1 x 1.1 x 0.9 = 0.99 (lost 1%)

    Your 3 x leveraged ETC:
    1 x 1.3 x 0.7 = 0.91 (lost 9%)

    Add an outrageously high fee to that and you have the product. It's toxic.
    Last edited by Raffe; 24th October 2020 at 06:44.

  25. #3525
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    It's simple. Volatility is your enemy when you own these useless products.

    To simplify, assume the stock goes up 10% today and loses 10% tomorrow. Performance:
    1 x 1.1 x 0.9 = 0.99 (lost 1%)

    Your 3 x leveraged ETC:
    1 x 1.3 x 0.7 = 0.91 (lost 9%)

    Add an outrageously high fee to that and you have the product. It's toxic.
    Ah, ok. Good these products only value is to flush out the fools.

  26. #3526
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Do we think this is even the bottom for BP/Shell? Doesn't look like it to me.
    Oil will have to come back. We quite simply cannot live without the products.
    The super-majors are not where the gains are likely to be. But, there could be some big shake-ups coming in the market.

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  27. #3527
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    Quote Originally Posted by 33JS View Post
    Oil will have to come back. We quite simply cannot live without the products.
    The super-majors are not where the gains are likely to be. But, there could be some big shake-ups coming in the market.

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    The question is not whether oil will disappear, it is how much cash the companies can extract from the process. Doesn't take much imagination to understand that they will be challenged to repeat their past success.

  28. #3528
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    Is bitcoin still a good investment?


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  29. #3529
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    Quote Originally Posted by wainy001 View Post
    Is bitcoin still a good investment?


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    Sure, plough it in.

    To the moon!

  30. #3530
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Sure, plough it in.

    To the moon!
    Seriously ?


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  31. #3531
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    Quote Originally Posted by 33JS View Post
    Oil will have to come back. We quite simply cannot live without the products.
    The super-majors are not where the gains are likely to be. But, there could be some big shake-ups coming in the market.

    Sent from my SM-G988B using Tapatalk
    genuine question here, what is the difference between oil and natural gas? it seems countries such as greece and turkey, including countries such as egypt, israel and cyprus are prepared to go to war for it.


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  32. #3532
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Woodguy View Post
    genuine question here, what is the difference between oil and natural gas? it seems countries such as greece and turkey, including countries such as egypt, israel and cyprus are prepared to go to war for it.


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    You know, oil is oil and gas is gas. But in the end both are just hydrocarbons, similar as by whatever forum ID you are going at the moment, you are still the fraudster Nick Shengaris who has been banned five times from this forum already.

  33. #3533
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wainy001 View Post
    Seriously ?
    Does he look frivolous to you?


  34. #3534
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    Quote Originally Posted by wainy001 View Post
    Is bitcoin still a good investment?


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    It is not an investment, it is a speculation. If you believe you’ll find a buyer at a higher price, then indeed, go for it. If you don’t, then don’t.

  35. #3535
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    Quote Originally Posted by thenikjones View Post
    It is not an investment, it is a speculation. If you believe you’ll find a buyer at a higher price, then indeed, go for it. If you don’t, then don’t.
    This.

  36. #3536
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    Quote Originally Posted by Woodguy View Post
    genuine question here, what is the difference between oil and natural gas? it seems countries such as greece and turkey, including countries such as egypt, israel and cyprus are prepared to go to war for it.


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    Gas is a long term fuel. Oil provides chemical feedstock for everything in your life apart from wood, glass, metal & stone.

    Simply, anyone saying we can currently live without oil is a deluded idealist.

    Gas is clean, cheap, reliable and plentiful.

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  37. #3537
    Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    What is going on today? I thought stonks only went up? I want to see a manager now!

  38. #3538
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    What is going on today? I thought stonks only went up? I want to see a manager now!
    No, that only applies to absolutely safe, zero risk bets like AstraZeneca. Oh, they hit a six month low today you say? But I assume you sold yours the day after their peak, right?

  39. #3539
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    What is going on today? I thought stonks only went up? I want to see a manager now!
    US Elections looking bad for Trump, Pelosi pissing about, tiered lockdowns in UK, Brexit dithering , US covid surge, vaccine trial set backs , increased UK borrowing ( +174b yoy), poor US economic data , whats not to like

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  40. #3540
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    US Elections looking bad for Trump, Pelosi pissing about, tiered lockdowns in UK, Brexit dithering , US covid surge, vaccine trial set backs , increased UK borrowing ( +174b yoy), poor US economic data , whats not to like
    Surely that's all the reasons to buy in for the long term, Biden will be slow 'n' steady, lock downs will end soon, Brexit will all be agreed, Biden will curb the US covid problem, Vaccine by Xmas and all our kids will pay off this debt, fund managers should be filling their boots while its all bargain basement.....

  41. #3541
    Easy!

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  42. #3542
    Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    No, that only applies to absolutely safe, zero risk bets like AstraZeneca. Oh, they hit a six month low today you say? But I assume you sold yours the day after their peak, right?
    AZN was up 1.7% today due to vaccine positivity.

    I did sell all my SMT though today. Let's see if I got that right.

  43. #3543
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    AZN was up 1.7% today due to vaccine positivity.

    I did sell all my SMT though today. Let's see if I got that right.
    Correct. The six month low was Thursday and Friday.


  44. #3544
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    A bare market is the best time to buy according to all
    Of the really successful financial gurus. Problem is even the greats get it wrong sometimes. Even Warren Buffet has had a few howlers in the past. This pandemic has thrown a few curve balls

  45. #3545
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post

    I did sell all my SMT though today. Let's see if I got that right.
    Strange. Last time we heard of them was when you said you sold all SMT on 26 June. You haven't mentioned them once ever since, even though you kept telling us what you owned (mostly AZN, IAG, MCRO and BOO plus some funds).

    Must have found them under your sifa cushions?

  46. #3546
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    [ar so good this year. QUOTE=TheFonz;5568426]A bare market is the best time to buy according to all
    Of the really successful financial gurus. Problem is even the greats get it wrong sometimes. Even Warren Buffet has had a few howlers in the past. This pandemic has thrown a few curve balls[/QUOTE]

    If you buy passive index trackers, yes, that is the conventional wisdom - which is what I’m doing. So far, so good this year. You need to keep your nerve and not sell. I haven’t the knowledge or inclination to pick individual shares.

    This crisis is different, but then every crisis is different.

  47. #3547
    Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Strange. Last time we heard of them was when you said you sold all SMT on 26 June. You haven't mentioned them once ever since, even though you kept telling us what you owned (mostly AZN, IAG, MCRO and BOO plus some funds).

    Must have found them under your sifa cushions?
    Its brilliant that on this thread, as well as the Covid one that you keep thinking I'm a bull sh###er. Makes it fun to prove otherwise. How I am on SC flipping like crazy is how I invest. Like a madman. Works for me as I'm up. May not work in future. But for the first and last time I'll upload some screen grabs from my HL account so you can see the trades first hand. Anything confidential I've blacked out. Yes this is a lot of trading but I find it fun. It is also probably only half the trades I have done in this time frame.
    Last edited by ryanb741; 27th October 2020 at 00:51.

  48. #3548
    Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Oh and the June SMT sales. Bought and sold a ton of it in between then and now also.

  49. #3549
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    Ryan I see you had the benefit of the Scottish Mortgage Investments, a mate of mine has had a crazy over 10 fold return on that over last few years, he was not aware really that he was in it :-) Result!

    Probably best to put the legend, the genius Poirot a.k.a Raffe on Ignore mate - it's just not worth the bother.

  50. #3550
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Oh and the June SMT sales. Bought and sold a ton of it in between then and now also.
    The ones you claimed at the time to be 100k? I see.

    I am happy for you that you managed to make a profit, given your exposure to long beta via the funds I hope you made a nice profit for the year - which is more than I can say about my dealings.

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