closing tag is in template navbar
timefactors watches



TZ-UK Fundraiser
Page 163 of 165 FirstFirst ... 63113153161162163164165 LastLast
Results 8,101 to 8,150 of 8206

Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #8101
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Lëtzebuerg
    Posts
    33,950
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Chinnock View Post
    Quoted this about inflation during lockdown right at the beginning.

    Combined with post lockdown economy free fall, production, unemployment, logistics, pensions, energy etc and you have a complete and utter cluster-fcuk.
    Wut?

    Post lockdown economy free fall? The per-head UK GDP has recovered to pre-covid levels after the lockdown was lifted.

    Unemployment? It's at an all-time low in the UK.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  2. #8102
    Master Chinnock's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Essex
    Posts
    9,786
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Wut?

    Post lockdown economy free fall? The per-head UK GDP has recovered to pre-covid levels after the lockdown was lifted.

    Unemployment? It's at an all-time low in the UK.
    Apologies. Upcoming unemployment and economic free fall 

    Until then, guess everything is looking rosey 

    Just don’t mention the looming food crisis shhh.
    Last edited by Chinnock; 16th June 2022 at 08:21.

  3. #8103
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Lëtzebuerg
    Posts
    33,950
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Chinnock View Post
    Apologies. Upcoming unemployment and economic free fall 

    Until then, guess everything is looking rosey 

    Just don’t mention the looming food crisis shhh.
    UK just enjoyed two years of best GDP growth ever and unemployment at record low - but if any of that changes it will be due to lockdown which ended almost a year ago, because you didn't like the lockdown? Gotcha.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  4. #8104
    Master
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Unknown
    Posts
    3,992
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    UK just enjoyed two years of best GDP growth ever and unemployment at record low - but if any of that changes it will be due to lockdown which ended almost a year ago, because you didn't like the lockdown? Gotcha.
    Two years growth off a base that was crushed by the pandemic. Hardly a great performance.

    ONS has the UK at the bottom of the pile for growth predictions… bar Russia.

    I don’t think things are particularly rosey here.

  5. #8105
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Location
    Cartagena, Spain
    Posts
    18,369
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Two years growth off a base that was crushed by the pandemic. Hardly a great performance.

    ONS has the UK at the bottom of the pile for growth predictions… bar Russia.

    I don’t think things are particularly rosey here.
    I think Raffe was trying to highlight the absurdity/stupidity of what's being spun as official narrative cf reality...just a guess...It's really not looking rosy, another thing we could have in common with Russia in addition to the world losing economic performance, this business of potentially quitting the ECHR..I'll say no more out of respect for place but by god we're practically in freefall across the board it seems like.
    Last edited by Passenger; 16th June 2022 at 09:30.

  6. #8106
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Lëtzebuerg
    Posts
    33,950
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    I think Raffe was trying to highlight the absurdity/stupidity of what's being spun as official narrative cf reality...just a guess...It's really not looking rosy, another thing we could have in common with Russia in addition to the world losing economic performance, this business of potentially quitting the ECHR..I'll say no more out of respect for place but by god we're practically in freefall across the board it seems like.
    This.

    Not saying the picture is positive, but to cherry pick the blame for the current slowdown on lockdown requires some outstanding mental acrobatics.

    Talking about mental acrobatics, how is the AMC MOASS coming along?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  7. #8107
    Master Chinnock's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Essex
    Posts
    9,786
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    This.

    Not saying the picture is positive, but to cherry pick the blame for the current slowdown on lockdown requires some outstanding mental acrobatics.

    Talking about mental acrobatics, how is the AMC MOASS coming along?
    I'm sure the global economic crisis, inflation, production, fuel, food, transportation, logistics, energy etc has nothing to do with past 2 years of global Lockdowns!

    Must just be coincidence, but whatever it is, it ain't looking rosey.

    AMC MOASS - who knows? but £50 to the fundraiser is always worth it.

  8. #8108
    We printed free money for 12 years. Someone has to pay it back

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  9. #8109
    Grand Master Saint-Just's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Ashford, Kent
    Posts
    26,469
    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    We printed free money for 12 years. Someone has to pay it back
    Really? Why? (genuine question, as in: who is claiming the debt?)
    'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.

  10. #8110
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Lëtzebuerg
    Posts
    33,950
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Saint-Just View Post
    Really? Why? (genuine question, as in: who is claiming the debt?)
    The next generation.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  11. #8111
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Lëtzebuerg
    Posts
    33,950
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Chinnock View Post
    I'm sure the global economic crisis, inflation, production, fuel, food, transportation, logistics, energy etc has nothing to do with past 2 years of global Lockdowns!

    Must just be coincidence, but whatever it is, it ain't looking rosey.

    AMC MOASS - who knows? but £50 to the fundraiser is always worth it.
    There are plenty reasons for the current crisis. Lots of things come to mind: Ukraine war, Covid, easy monetary policy, Brexit, irresponsible politics....

    Lockdowns are certainly not on the list.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  12. #8112
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    London
    Posts
    14,857
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    The next generation.
    They get to inherit all the Pateks though, so every cloud

  13. #8113
    Quote Originally Posted by Saint-Just View Post
    Really? Why? (genuine question, as in: who is claiming the debt?)
    Third world countries and our kids

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  14. #8114
    Master TKH's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Hot Tub
    Posts
    2,872
    This from the BOE website

    It would sound great presented by "Johnny Ball" for those old enough to remember him


    Why do we use quantitative easing?
    It’s our job to keep the prices of things you buy low and stable, as this helps to support people’s jobs and incomes.

    Rising prices is called inflation and the UK government has set us an inflation target.

    To keep inflation on target we usually change a key interest rate in the economy (called Bank Rate). Changes in Bank Rate feed through to how much interest you get on savings, and how much interest you pay on a loan. That affects the amount of spending in the economy and so helps inflation to either fall or rise.

    But things changed during the Global Financial Crisis that began in 2008. At that time, we quickly reduced Bank Rate from 5% to 0.5% to help the UK economy recover.

    ========================
    How much quantitative easing have we done in the UK?
    We began buying bonds through QE in March 2009 as a response to the Global Financial Crisis. Between 2009 and 2021, we bought £895 billion worth of bonds through QE. We used most of that sum (£875 billion) to buy UK government bonds.


    ========================

    2.8 Trillion in debt 3 trillion in sight and 82 billion PA interest #Winning !
    Last edited by TKH; 16th June 2022 at 12:37.

  15. #8115
    What spooked the FTSE today? I thought with only a 0.25% rate increase it would take off.

    I know today is the ex-dividend date for FTSE ETF, so could imagine a little selling pressure, but not that much.

  16. #8116
    Doing a bit of a Raffe.

    £20k of FTSE ETF sold at 7450 three weeks ago, just bought back at 7095.

    Will sell if it bounces again as still think things will get worse before they get better.

  17. #8117
    Master
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Unknown
    Posts
    3,992
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    We printed free money for 12 years. Someone has to pay it back

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
    I think they are following the line of MMT. Modern Monetary Theory. So no one pays it back.

    I believe they think they can control the inflation that’s it creates by taxation.

    They pump the money in to create full employment then tax it out to manage inflation.

    I think that’s the general gist of it.

  18. #8118
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Lëtzebuerg
    Posts
    33,950
    Blog Entries
    1
    Bought some smallish positions in AMZN, GOOG and MSFT. Already own some TWTR, that'll do on the long side for time being.

    Short I got plenty of TSLA, cash and options. Keep selling into rallies.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  19. #8119
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Worcestershire
    Posts
    2,581
    More on mining naked whilst the seam dries up - https://blockworks.co/crashing-price...n-to-leverage/

    They can't say you didn't try and warn them.

    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Add to that the effects of their genius decisions not to sell their bitcoins but to hodl out for higher prices and they will all go bankrupt during the next BTC leg down...

  20. #8120
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Lëtzebuerg
    Posts
    33,950
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Bought some smallish positions in AMZN, GOOG and MSFT. Already own some TWTR, that'll do on the long side for time being.

    Short I got plenty of TSLA, cash and options. Keep selling into rallies.
    Closing my long positions here (except TWTR).
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  21. #8121
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    London
    Posts
    14,857
    I'm reading more and more investors talking about disinflation (deflation) coming soon which will cause the FED to reverse its current rate hiking trajectory. Apparently US CPI data released on the 13th July will see inflation markedly below the 8.6% it was in June. Michael Burry is once such exponent of this theory - talking about imminent deflationary pulses from what is known as the 'Bullwhip' effect and that a lot of retailers will be sitting on far too much stock given the fact that economic data is going to be pretty miserable and consequently they will need to discount heavily in order to sell this stock.

    P.S. I didn't learn this from Reddit in case anyone deigns to ask ;)

  22. #8122
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    London
    Posts
    14,857
    Does anyone have a link to the bets made with Raffe. Pretty sure I've lost by miles and need to stick £50 into the FR but wanted to check what the bet was (S&P I think).

  23. #8123
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Lëtzebuerg
    Posts
    33,950
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Just got home, donation made for the lost S&P500 bet.

    Here's a quick summary of the seven bets I struck today, will counterparts please correct me if they have a different understanding (all bets in favour of forum fundraiser):

    1. Sean89: ETH marketcap > BTC marketcap anytime between today and 31/12/22. Raffe over, Sean under. £50

    2. Sean89: Floki Inu fully diluted market cap > $10bln on 31/12/2022. Sean over, Raffe under. £50

    3. Ryanb741: S&P500 > 5,000 on 30/06/2022, Ryan over, Raffe under. £50

    4. demonloop: BTC price > $150,000 anytime between today and 30/06/22. demonloop over, Raffe under. £50

    5. mr noble: Argo Blockchain price > 300p anytime between today and 30/06/22. mr noble over, Raffe under. £50


    6. Daveya: Raffe wins all of bets 1 to 5. Daveya over, Raffe under. £50

    7. Chinnock: AMC price > $50 on 30/06/2022, Chinnock over, Raffe under. £50
    Four bets coming due today: 3, 4, 5 and 7.

    You know where to find the fundraiser, Gentlemen.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  24. #8124
    Fs

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  25. #8125
    Master Chinnock's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Essex
    Posts
    9,786
    One day Raffe we will all be winners, but always a pleasure to give to a worthy cause.

  26. #8126
    Post your biggest stock pick failure.

    Cineworld is down a juicy -48.96% since I bought it 4 months ago. Is nobody going back to the cinema after the great reopening?

    Sent from my SM-X200 using Tapatalk

  27. #8127
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    London
    Posts
    14,857
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Post your biggest stock pick failure.

    Cineworld is down a juicy -48.96% since I bought it 4 months ago. Is nobody going back to the cinema after the great reopening?

    Sent from my SM-X200 using Tapatalk
    Pah! Hold my beer

  28. #8128
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Lëtzebuerg
    Posts
    33,950
    Blog Entries
    1
    Ouch.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  29. #8129
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Ouch.
    You only win? No dodgy stock pick?

    Your bets are good, but basically they are all bull vs bear bets, so you either win or lose them all. But, fair play, well done btw

    Sent from my SM-X200 using Tapatalk

  30. #8130
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Lëtzebuerg
    Posts
    33,950
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    You only win? No dodgy stock pick?

    Your bets are good, but basically they are all bull vs bear bets, so you either win or lose them all. But, fair play, well done btw

    Sent from my SM-X200 using Tapatalk
    I don't hold investments. I trade. I either cut a small loss or I let the profit run. Sometimes I have bad days, sometimes I have good days.

    But I will never have a stock with a 10%+ loss. Never.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  31. #8131
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I don't hold investments. I trade. I either cut a small loss or I let the profit run. Sometimes I have bad days, sometimes I have good days.

    But I will never have a stock with a 10%+ loss. Never.
    Would you buy a stock that has just had a 10%+ loss - doesn't matter who's had the loss?

  32. #8132
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Lëtzebuerg
    Posts
    33,950
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    Would you buy a stock that has just had a 10%+ loss - doesn't matter who's had the loss?
    Absolutely, if I have reason to believe it will be higher tomorrow. But if it moves against me, I cut the position no matter what.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  33. #8133
    Master mr noble's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Cambs
    Posts
    4,232
    I was just a smudge shy of winning my bet.

    Argo is about 30p today, so only needs a 10X to win.

    Near miss.

  34. #8134
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    London
    Posts
    14,857
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I was just a smudge shy of winning my bet.

    Argo is about 30p today, so only needs a 10X to win.

    Near miss.
    Good job you weren't spread betting!

  35. #8135
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Absolutely, if I have reason to believe it will be higher tomorrow. But if it moves against me, I cut the position no matter what.
    No logic there, just sentiment!

  36. #8136
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Lëtzebuerg
    Posts
    33,950
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    No logic there, just sentiment!
    Lolz, no logic?

    If you want to be successful at trading, the most important is your risk management. Loss management comes first, everything else second.

    You do you.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  37. #8137
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Lolz, no logic?

    If you want to be successful at trading, the most important is your risk management. Loss management comes first, everything else second.

    You do you.
    You obviously know lot more about this than me but I just can’t understand the difference between buying a stock that has just lost 10% for you or for someone else. Prospects are the same.

  38. #8138
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Lëtzebuerg
    Posts
    33,950
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    You obviously know lot more about this than me but I just can’t understand the difference between buying a stock that has just lost 10% for you or for someone else. Prospects are the same.
    I don't understand your logic. How can I buy a stock that "has just lost 10% for me"?

    If it lost me money, I must have bought it already earlier at a higher price?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  39. #8139
    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    You obviously know lot more about this than me but I just can’t understand the difference between buying a stock that has just lost 10% for you or for someone else. Prospects are the same.
    Eh?

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  40. #8140
    Master mr noble's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Cambs
    Posts
    4,232
    Just sent my £50 Argo bet to the FR.

    Congratulations Raffe.

    We could do another bet if you like? That my SIPP goes to zero before Argo or MSTR do.

    I think there’s a high likelihood that I’ll win that bet. I’m already a good way into turning my big fortune into a very small one.

    Honestly, my 2 years of stock picking really has reenforced how the average retail ‘investor’ like me is far far better off taking the slow and steady passive investing route.

    I did that for 26 years and built up a very nice retirement pot, then destroyed it in 12-18 months when covid hit.
    I thought I’d nailed it when I sold it all out to cash in mid March 2020 after a 10% drop and watched it all drop a further 10%. But then I sat in cash and watched the V shaped recovery happen and then bought into some highly volatile stocks and funds near the top.

    I’ve learned a lot about investing, I didn’t know a candle chart from a Fib retracement back then…..it’s just a shame I learned these lessons with my entire pension and savings funds rather than with a little bit of play cash.

    Oh well. There are more important things in life than money. Like Bitcoin!

  41. #8141
    Sorry for your losses. My tinkering has had variable success but since that has mostly been between passive funds and trusts with the odd active fund things are ok overall.

  42. #8142
    Master Halitosis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Location
    West Lothian
    Posts
    1,007
    I am sorry to read that mr noble. Not that it helps, you are one of a considerable number. Now please don’t chase your losses.

  43. #8143
    Craftsman
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Herts
    Posts
    601
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Pah! Hold my beer
    Easy, that would be my Eurasia Mining holding in my SIPP

    Down 79.89%


  44. #8144
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2017
    Location
    N/A
    Posts
    14,128
    Mine is genuinely miniscule as I started my pension fairly late and I'm still waiting for a transfer from an old work pension.

    I chose mine at random based on zero logic or intelligence, just what sounded good on the list at the time, but they seem to be doing ok. I think I opened it about 18 months ago.

  45. #8145
    Quote Originally Posted by Kidsteruk View Post
    Easy, that would be my Eurasia Mining holding in my SIPP

    Down 79.89%

    I have a small chunk in Evraz. I guess that is 100% loss, at least for the time being.

  46. #8146
    Master studly's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Scotland
    Posts
    2,614
    I do not see how it is possible to not make money in this market, but I suppose it depends on how you trade. I actively trade and don't long term hold anything. Just like Rafflepuffs above.

  47. #8147
    EasyJet share price now 10% below the absolute lowest price during the Covid, when not a single plane was flying.

    IAG at ATLs, and the same price as Oct 2020 when Covid was rampant. About 75% down since pre-Covid.

    Maybe worth a punt if you believe the falling knife has hit the floor.

    You know what they say; when there is blood on the streets………

    But seriously, if you are holding for 10 years, gotta be of interest

  48. #8148
    Quote Originally Posted by studly View Post
    I do not see how it is possible to not make money in this market, but I suppose it depends on how you trade. I actively trade and don't long term hold anything. Just like Rafflepuffs above.
    The market is in decline. I am sure there is money to be made in trading volatility, but a declining market just reduces the odds of being successful.

    Just like a roulette table adding another green segment.

  49. #8149
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Lëtzebuerg
    Posts
    33,950
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    The market is in decline. I am sure there is money to be made in trading volatility, but a declining market just reduces the odds of being successful.

    Just like a roulette table adding another green segment.
    Any trending market is good for traders, no difference whether up or down.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  50. #8150
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Any trending market is good for traders, no difference whether up or down.
    If you are a skilled trader; 99.9% of people are not.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Do Not Sell My Personal Information