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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #8051
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Not sure what charts youā€™re looking at but nearly all the ones on my watchlist are between 6&10% up.

    Including your most hated MSTR, 10% up in premarket.
    I was looking at the sp500. Thought that was obvious from my post...?

    If your watchlist is up by 6% to 10% today, then that is because they are shitcos that are down >50% from their highs. Stop, make that 75% from the highs.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  2. #8052
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quite correct.

  3. #8053
    Decent day for Saylor

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  4. #8054
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    If your watchlist is up by 6% to 10% today, then that is because they are shitcos that are down >50% from their highs. Stop, make that 75% from the highs.

    I should also highlight that most of them were originally your recommendations. Should have bailed out when they were up!

    Oh well. Learned a lot.

  5. #8055
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I should also highlight that most of them were originally your recommendations. Should have bailed out when they were up!

    Oh well. Learned a lot.
    I have never recommended a stock.

    I have shared some of the stocks that I was trading, I also shared when I sold them.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  6. #8056
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Time to review the charity bets, exactly 1 month left for bets #3, #4, #5 and #7.


    1. Sean89: ETH marketcap > BTC marketcap anytime between today and 31/12/22. Raffe over, Sean under. £50
    Long time left, but my optimism has been going down the drain recently with BTC/ETH marketcap trading up into the 2.60s

    2. Sean89: Floki Inu fully diluted market cap > $10bln on 31/12/2022. Sean over, Raffe under. £50
    Long time left, but the price will have to go up by over 11,000% to get there so I am not losing a lot of sleep.

    3. Ryanb741: S&P500 > 5,000 on 30/06/2022, Ryan over, Raffe under. £50
    One month, 20% upwards to go. Not impossible, but steep.

    4. demonloop: BTC price > $150,000 anytime between today and 30/06/22. demonloop over, Raffe under. £50
    Needs to trade 370% higher during next month, right on track for $250k end of year.

    5. mr noble: Argo Blockchain price > 300p anytime between today and 30/06/22. mr noble over, Raffe under. £50
    Needs to go up 476% in one month. Maybe.

    6. Daveya: Raffe wins all of bets 1 to 5. Daveya over, Raffe under. £50
    To be seen 31/12, but given #1, I think I will win.

    7. Chinnock: AMC price > $50 on 30/06/2022, Chinnock over, Raffe under. £50
    Needs 250% in the last month. Let's see.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  7. #8057
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Argo Blockchain price > 300p anytime between today and 30/06/22. mr noble over, Raffe under. £50. Needs to go up 476% in one month. Maybe.
    And whilst on the topic of bitcoin mining, there's no real surprises in this snapshot on the economics of running a large scale operation at the moment. Some fairly sobering numbers nonetheless.

  8. #8058
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    And whilst on the topic of bitcoin mining, there's no real surprises in this snapshot on the economics of running a large scale operation at the moment. Some fairly sobering numbers nonetheless.
    Add to that the effects of their genius decisions not to sell their bitcoins but to hodl out for higher prices and they will all go bankrupt during the next BTC leg down (as their stock prices are already predicting).

    But in any case, even a stock that is down 85% (as Argo, Riot and Marathon all are), can still go down a lot more.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  9. #8059
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    I've got my short on $MSTR for tomorrow. Expecting a retrace.

  10. #8060
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPCain86 View Post
    I've got my short on $MSTR for tomorrow. Expecting a retrace.
    Was looking at put options today but at 144 iVol it's outright crazy. And stock borrow is 14% - suppose everybody and their dogs are short this dog.

    Best of luck, I still think it's going to zero but think my capital is more efficiently deployed with short BTC.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  11. #8061
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Was looking at put options today but at 144 iVol it's outright crazy. And stock borrow is 14% - suppose everybody and their dogs are short this dog.

    Best of luck, I still think it's going to zero but think my capital is more efficiently deployed with short BTC.
    Now just need to decide when to close

  12. #8062
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPCain86 View Post
    I've got my short on $MSTR for tomorrow. Expecting a retrace.
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Best of luck, I still think it's going to zero but think my capital is more efficiently deployed with short BTC.
    Everyone a winner then.

  13. #8063
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    Everyone a winner then.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  14. #8064
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Add to that the effects of their genius decisions not to sell their bitcoins but to hodl out for higher prices...
    It's possible that particular oil tanker might have begun to turn.

    https://nairametrics.com/2022/06/02/...rket-persists/

    Indeed the issue is (quietly) mentioned in the recent Argo Blockchain Investor Presentation. (Secondary bullet point on slide thirteen in this PDF of the deck for anyone desperately interested.)

  15. #8065
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    It's possible that particular oil tanker might have begun to turn.

    https://nairametrics.com/2022/06/02/...rket-persists/

    Indeed the issue is (quietly) mentioned in the recent Argo Blockchain Investor Presentation. (Secondary bullet point on slide thirteen in this PDF of the deck for anyone desperately interested.)
    Ha, good spot.

    I can assure you that the desperate investors get all their info from the LSE Argo forum. I can only recommend, it's a clown show.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  16. #8066
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    It's possible that particular oil tanker might have begun to turn.

    https://nairametrics.com/2022/06/02/...rket-persists/

    Indeed the issue is (quietly) mentioned in the recent Argo Blockchain Investor Presentation. (Secondary bullet point on slide thirteen in this PDF of the deck for anyone desperately interested.)

    In respect of your point above, this ~$50m funding is already secured. They’ve agreed a loan with NYDig for all the remaining cash needed to complete phase 1 at Helios.

    Borrowed at a 12% rate over the period of the loan.

  17. #8067
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    In respect of your point above, this ~$50m funding is already secured. They’ve agreed a loan with NYDig for all the remaining cash needed to complete phase 1 at Helios.

    Borrowed at a 12% rate over the period of the loan.
    Two different things, both mentioned in this deck (and please don't miss the little footnote preparing for another dump of equity onto bagholders):





    And, 12% is rather steep interest, the average USD junk bonds are at 6,9% at the moment (and that is for unsecured lending). The fact that Argo has to pay a cool 5% more than that for a secured loan should tell you something. And that little something ain't good.
    Last edited by Raffe; 2nd June 2022 at 21:33.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  18. #8068
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post

    And, 12% is rather steep interest, the average USD junk bonds are at 6,9% at the moment (and that is for unsecured lending). The fact that Argo has to pay a cool 5% more than that for a secured loan should tell you something. And that little something ain't good.
    In BTC miner world, 12% is very good. Other miners are paying more.

    It’s lucky they secured the loan when they did as they’d have to pay a good chunk more than 12% now the market has turned against miners.

  19. #8069
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    In BTC miner world, 12% is very good. Other miners are paying more.

    It’s lucky they secured the loan when they did as they’d have to pay a good chunk more than 12% now the market has turned against miners.
    You think 12% is good?

    Iris got money from NYDIG at 11%, Greenidge paid 13%, HUT paid 9.5%, CleanSpark 9.9% - so I give you that: they are average shitty in a sector full of shit cos.

    And all of them are preparing a major dump of equity after their share prices lost 80%+. Shows a lot of confidence, not.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  20. #8070
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    I opened another short on MSTR. Not the best timing because they continued to rise but I am expecting a nice drop today with BTC price dropping!

  21. #8071
    Musk in his words has a super bad feeling about the economy, and announces 10,000 or 10% Tesla job cuts via internal memo.

  22. #8072
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    This was a very rough week with a very happy ending on Friday. Short Tesla, short bitcoin and long Twitter - that wasn't the trade of the week - until today.

    Let the weekend roll in.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  23. #8073
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Yep I've been absolutely crushed on this - had 35% of my SIPP in it. That being said still 15 years to go until retirement. I'll not be buying more SMT, just index trackers
    Always the victim


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  24. #8074
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Trimming some of my Tesla and Bitcoin shorts here, looking to sell again at higher levels.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  25. #8075
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Long Tesla for a bounce.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  26. #8076
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Long Tesla for a bounce.
    Had a sell order at $769.42 - missed it by less than three Dollars and now it's 50 bucks lower. Not my week, got every call major wrong and it's only Thursday.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  27. #8077
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Had a sell order at $769.42 - missed it by less than three Dollars and now it's 50 bucks lower. Not my week, got every call major wrong and it's only Thursday.
    Yeah, it's generally a losing proposition trying to time the market.

  28. #8078
    Lol

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  29. #8079
    Michael Burry tweeting again. It feels like he is a pig in, I told you so, sh1t

    https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/st...afPB-hHO4ddGDw

    Transitory, no. Peak, no. To the moon? If you mean a cold dark place.

    "The CPI news this morning was so awful that it changed the bond market’s view of Fed trajectory, and the weakest sector broke. In bond jargon, MBS went “no-bid.” No buyers for MBS."

    https://www.cherrycreekmortgage.com/lous-credit-news

  30. #8080
    Proper carnage on the US stock market at the moment

    Rates in the debt market are surging.

  31. #8081
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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  32. #8082
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post

    The cost of MP’s pensions is eye-watering unless it’s changed dramatically recently.

    A lot of public sector pensions have been downgraded but do still, at least, have a guarantee.

  33. #8083
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Everybody knows that unfunded pensions are the worst ticking time bomb imaginable. It's the very reason why public finances are unsustainable and we will be seeing a big bang sometime on the time horizon.

    This can has been kicked down the road forever and no newspaper paper interview is going to change that. They won't change anything until it's too late.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  34. #8084

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Anyway, I am working my way out of the market for six months and will start on Monday by selling £20k of FTSE ETF, and then will sell a lot more over the coming weeks.

    The Fed put has ended and it is clear that tackling inflation is more important that the stock market, at least for the time being. Putin could also get more unpredictable as he is further cornered. China is fooked.

    Once the cost of living crisis truly kicks in and winter fuel bills need paying, life is going to get tough for a lot of people. Spending is on fripperies is going to dry up. Money will focus on essential spending.

    Not comfortable being in cash with inflation this high. But I’d rather lose an insidious 10% over a year than 3% per day over many days.
    I can recount many bad moves and losses over the last year, and this is very unusual for me, but it is looking like I may have a made a half decent move this time. Took £25k out of the SM in late May and have it sitting in cash. I did look at shorting the FTSE but I bottled out.

    Watch me eat my words as the SM will rally 10% if I have taken money out of it!

    I know things can change quickly, but I plan to sit on it for a few months or until/if the SHTF properly.

    I know I have broken the golden rule of investing, and it is time in the market rather than timing the market, but I fancied a bit of fun, and wanted to stay true to my conviction.
    Last edited by noTAGlove; 14th June 2022 at 12:03.

  35. #8085
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    I give you the two poster children of Covid-related stock market absurdity.

    Microstrategy has just reversed the complete run up since December 2019, Tesla still has a lot of downside left. Obviously they are not the same, not even directly comparable except for the hoards of fanbois that have been chasing the stock price in a fact-free bubble absent of any common sense. Hundreds of thousands of investors gamblers will lose everything and will remain indebted for the rests of their lives. And the companies boards of directors have stood in silence watching the cocaine-induced shenanigans of the two celebrity CEOs, while cashing out every single share they have received for their custodial service to shareholders.

    When prison?

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  36. #8086

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    US 10 year just breached 3.5% with 30 year just behind. 50 bps increase in the last 5 days alone.

    This mean mortgage rates in the US will be around 6 to 6.5%. That was my interest on my first house in London in 1999, except house price were 5 times cheaper back then.

    Stock market down on the news. House prices in the US will go backwards. Set up for a very interesting period if it continues this way.

    No significant financial acumen, but I have learned not to worry about what goes on in the stock market. It is the debt market that matters.

  37. #8087
    Luxury son, I paid 15.4% on my first house, mortgage was 80% of our income and we had 15 quid for food,

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  38. #8088
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    The £ has been absolutely smashed over the last few days compounding the weakness of the last few months. It's fighting to stay above 1.20 but appears ready to cave in below that level. The Torys have truly fucked the UK's future.

  39. #8089
    Quote Originally Posted by mondie View Post
    The £ has been absolutely smashed over the last few days compounding the weakness of the last few months. It's fighting to stay above 1.20 but appears ready to cave in below that level. The Torys have truly fucked the UK's future.
    Below 1.20. Long live inflation.

  40. #8090
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mondie View Post
    The £ has been absolutely smashed over the last few days compounding the weakness of the last few months. It's fighting to stay above 1.20 but appears ready to cave in below that level. The Torys have truly fucked the UK's future.
    Not going to help when rising energy costs are the major problem. And all that jet fuel for the Rwanda flights has just become more expensive as well.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  41. #8091
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Below 1.20. Long live inflation.
    I think it could go to 1.10 will the boe do anything?

  42. #8092
    Master mondie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Not going to help when rising energy costs are the major problem. And all that jet fuel for the Rwanda flights has just become more expensive as well.
    Certainly not, but when most of the country lives in la-la land and laps up the media manipulation devoid of any critical thinking skill, many are going to be puzzled as to why the cost of everything is nuts.

    It is now just a question of how far it can fall.

  43. #8093
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    Turns out money didn't grow on trees and that the cost of repeated lockdowns and pumping money into the economy would end up causing issues long term.

  44. #8094
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    Quote Originally Posted by miguelh34 View Post
    I think it could go to 1.10 will the boe do anything?
    Very little they can do, as they've only got the one lever.

  45. #8095
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Turns out money didn't grow on trees and that the cost of repeated lockdowns and pumping money into the economy would end up causing issues long term.
    I suspect the long term issues predated covid but certainly pumping out money to just any companies without even basic due diligence and forethought given to the 'build back better' notion, just cost the taxpayer 7 or 8 billions lost to fraud...

    Why wouldn't, shouldn't the pound fall to parity with the euro and dollar, it'd just be the continuation of the long term trend and GB's expected to do worst barring Russia of all the G20 next year...heck parity may be optimistic.
    Last edited by Passenger; 15th June 2022 at 09:33.

  46. #8096

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Very little they can do, as they've only got the one lever.
    There is a huge amount they can do as that lever represents enormous fire power.

    It is what they choose to do.

  47. #8097
    Quote Originally Posted by miguelh34 View Post
    I think it could go to 1.10 will the boe do anything?
    The collapse of the Great British Peso is the only thing that is propping up the further collapse of the SMT share price.

    Sterling is now falling faster than US stocks, meaning the more recent small losses on US stocks are still providing a positive return to U.K. holders.

    Gold has collapsed in price in USD, but marching higher in GBP. We are becoming more like Turkey every day.

  48. #8098
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Turns out money didn't grow on trees and that the cost of repeated lockdowns and pumping money into the economy would end up causing issues long term.
    Probably the most sensible post you’ve ever made !




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  49. #8099

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quote Originally Posted by dandanthewatchman View Post
    Probably the most sensible post you’ve ever made !




    Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app
    I was listening to a podcast during the SM boom of 2021 and a particular financial observer was asked when and if a SM crash could happen. He stated as soon a Covid is no longer an issue and out of the news. He was bang on.

    Time to pay the piper.

  50. #8100
    Master Chinnock's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Turns out money didn't grow on trees and that the cost of repeated lockdowns and pumping money into the economy would end up causing issues long term.
    Quoted this about inflation during lockdown right at the beginning.

    Combined with post lockdown economy free fall, production, unemployment, logistics, pensions, energy etc and you have a complete and utter cluster-fcuk.
    Last edited by Chinnock; 15th June 2022 at 22:30.

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