Interesting article on the (grim) future for Ferrari...

[Dark Side of The Loon]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/432...ult-of-ferrari


There are small bits here and there in that with which I disagree, or which I think are unknowable.

Still, seems like sad, accurate analysis to me. Maybe that old fox Montezemolo knew what he was up to after all... The new 4x4 might be just the thing to persuade many that Ferrari is merely another car maker.

Has interesting implications for the watch world too, I think. It’s not facing a regulatory problem, but the Apple Watch is already outselling everyone, and may become ever more useful. It’s made me appreciate how right Rolex likely are to have kept a tight grip on production.

[Franky Four Fingers]

I disagree that Tesla are changing the world, for the vast majority of the population their models are out of the reach financially which automatically puts them at a disadvantage. They’re not a company who have a long history of mass producing vehicles unlike VW for instance and it’s not a huge step in my mind for them to become railroaded by a company who can cheaply produce a car for a wider market. Tesla are exclusive in my mind just as Ferrari so really don’t see why the same predicted fate can’t happen to them also.

[Foxy100]

I couldn't read all of it, I lost the will. I strongly suspect Ferrari will survive and will survive happily. I don't get the whole SUV thing though, Ferrari have always done their own thing and not been bothered by trends and I struggle to see anyone with a poster of an SUV on their wall. The future for any kind of vehicle is massive weight loss, and Ferrari know how to make things light. Maserati are already making their first electric supercar, I bet all the manufacturers currently pumping out petrol cars are going out in a blaze of glory while quietly preparing themselves for whatever comes next. That electric doesn't seem to be the answer isn't of interest to a lot of people, I'll be amazed though if all our new cars are powered by it in 15 - let alone 20 - years. Ferrari are going to be fine.

[chrisparker]

I think many car brands will become just that. A brand rather than a manufacturer. Like in the TV industry there will be a couple of genuine manufacturers with many brands repackaging the technology.

I can fully see a world where Tesla are making cars for brands such as ferrari.

[TheFlyingBanana]

I have read it all, and it is very thought provoking. It tallies with many of my half-formed thoughts around this simply immense looming paradigm shift in our relationship with automobiles.

A few of my views... as a confirmed long-standing petrolhead who has owned many semi-exotics over the years.

My kids have very different views on the acquisition of material objects to my own, and are more focused on experiences and the use of technology. Many of their most valued possessions are not actuallly "physical" they are virtual. This is an absolute and fundamental change in mind-set, and there is much evidence to suggest it is rapidly becoming the norm.

They see cars much more as devices with a purpose - ie transport. They will embrace a new model where they don't own cars, but simply call for a self-driving one via an app when they need it. This change will transform our lives, national economy, and every village town and city. I think we will see this within the next twenty to thirty years or possibly considerably less. I know one or two very senior people in the car industry and they see this as a matter of when now, not if.

ICE vehicles are now decidely old-tech. I feel this in myself. I am in a position now to purchase something like an Aston Martin as a weekend car, and probably will as the appeal is aesthetic rather than practical, and will be another one ticked off my bucket list (I have no desire for a Lambo, Ferrari or Maclaran - my days of really hardcore sports cars are probably over). But, and this is the thing, I am just as excited by the prospect of getting a Tesla or iPace for my next daily car (indeed I ordered an iPace some months ago and was let down on delivery by Jaguar).

Tesla is making all other manufacturers look outdated right now. The Model 3 drives as well or better than an M3, and is considerably faster and cheaper to run. Added to that, the tech onboard is years ahead. So other than noise, what is the advantage of an M3?

The Tesla Roadster will annihilate every other hypercar for a fraction of the price. This will be a game-changer in itself.

ICE based companies have a difficult future, and they cannot take anything for granted right now.

[j0hnbarker]

Tesla is making all other manufacturers look outdated right now. The Model 3 drives as well or better than an M3, and is considerably faster and cheaper to run. Added to that, the tech onboard is years ahead. So other than noise, what is the advantage of an M3?

Looks, for one.

The Tesla looks like it was designed by a child. There is also the rather toxic Elon Musk association (‘pedo guy’) that I find off putting.

[TheFlyingBanana]

Looks, for one.

The Tesla looks like it was designed by a child. There is also the rather toxic Elon Musk association (‘pedo guy’) that I find off putting.

I take your point about the looks from a middle-aged male persepctive (we have been brought up with a certain taste in automotive style), but I'm not sure younger generations see it the same way at all. The Roadster looks stunning from any perspective.

I don't think the Musk association is a problem either, and sales figures don't seem to reflect any fall-out from his silliness. I guess geniuses can be forgiven quite a bit...

[Dark Side of The Loon]

The most likely stuff in the article is not so much about Tesla and so on, because I think Ferrari have a very distinct appeal... more about how, by pushing both prices and production up, they’re in danger of killing the virtuous circle of low/no depreciation.

[jaytip]

I take your point about the looks from a middle-aged male persepctive (we have been brought up with a certain taste in automotive style), but I'm not sure younger generations see it the same way at all. The Roadster looks stunning from any perspective.

I don't think the Musk association is a problem either, and sales figures don't seem to reflect any fall-out from his silliness. I guess geniuses can be forgiven quite a bit...

The roadster may look nice but it’s rumoured to cost 200+K. That’s out of the price bracket of most.

[TheFlyingBanana]

The roadster may look nice but it’s rumoured to cost 200+K. That’s out of the price bracket of most.

Absolutely it is, but that is part of the point.

It isn't out of the price bracket of many Ferrari or Lambo owners, and it's positively cheap compared to the price tags of many hypercars.

It will be exclusive, rare, looks great, and moves the game on in terms of performance...

Suddenly LaFerrari will look hopelessly overpriced and old fashioned.

[j0hnbarker]

Absolutely it is, but that is part of the point.

It isn't out of the price bracket of many Ferrari or Lambo owners, and it's positively cheap compared to the price tags of many hypercars.

It will be exclusive, rare, looks great, and moves the game on in terms of performance...

Suddenly LaFerrari will look hopelessly overpriced and old fashioned.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, clearly, on this one.

I don’t think the Roadster is unattractive but it isn’t drop dead gorgeous either.

Regarding the exclusivity comment, Tesla will never have the cachet that Ferrari has in terms of racing and road car heritage. There is something inherently soulless about the movement of electrons within a magnetic field that is just isn’t going to generate the same level of desire that high-performance ICE can deliver. Yes, the world is heading electric but I think that will also render some of our preconceptions about performance cars irrelevant!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[thieuster]

On a sidenote:

I just found out that Ferrari is a Dutch Limited company: Ferrari N.V. That 'N.V.' or 'NV' stands for 'Naamloze Vennootschap'. That happened in 2015 according to an old article in a Dutch newspaper. They switched to the Dutch tax laws because we're a tax haven for multinational companies and celebs. The Rolling Stones, U2, Bono as a 'brand' (do good to the world but don't pay too much tax in Ireland...), Johnny Walker, IKEA and Nike are on that list as well. In total 15,000 international companies. So-called 'letterbox companies'. All have one address, in the financial district in Amsterdam.

[RustyBin5]

Did I not read somewhere that once your Tesla is 3 yrs old you need to replace the battery and it costs thousands to do so? Anyone know for sure?

[Foxy100]

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, clearly, on this one.

Lots of people think SUVs look good (I've heard grown men describe new Range Rovers as 'gorgeous' and 'beautiful'). It's no longer about cars actually looking good, it's about desirability and what the car says about you. And how the branding of a big old lump of an SUV fits in with what you want. I drove a brand new Range Rover for the first time last week and all it confirmed to me is people don't want these things for the pleasure of driving. Amazing damping, mind.

I was having a chat earlier with a friend who's desperate for a Singer. I told him I'd rather have an original 2.4S. He can drive but still wants what Morgan make, cars that evoke a bygone age and have a classic look (and associated image and lifestyle) but don't have the implied negatives (not so safe or reliable, for example). Fast cars these days come with all manner of technology that allow anyone to go fast while the cars try their best to stop them killing themselves. The age of F40 and so on, proper mens cars, are over. The supercar has changed, and is still changing.

I still think lightness is the future, and Ferrari have that knowledge and currently make incredibly interesting cars from carbonfibre and so on. Whether or not they stick electric, hybrid or petrol engines in them, they still have quite a lot over Tesla and anyone else. And who knows, Rimac currently work with 15 car manufacturers, maybe Ferrari's one.

[TheFlyingBanana]

Did I not read somewhere that once your Tesla is 3 yrs old you need to replace the battery and it costs thousands to do so? Anyone know for sure?

I really don't think that is right. There are Teslas eight years or more old now on the road and running without any significant issues as far as I am aware.

There seems to be strong evidence that these battery packs are good for at least ten to fifteen years depending on milage, and possibly more. There are Lexus and Toyota hybrids still running fine after twenty years now.

[Andyg]

The Tesla Roadster will annihilate every other hypercar for a fraction of the price. This will be a game-changer in itself.

LOLs.

A bit early to say this given that its not been released yet. It claims a top speed of 250 mph and a range of 620 miles, but lets see what the testers make of it.

All very interesting, however will be interesting to see whether it can go sub 7 minutes around the ring and how long it takes to charge using a standard home charger.

Alas i doubt we will every see actually complete in a GT race simply unless its the Le Mans 24 (minutes).

[thieuster]

Check this: the loooooooong row of Dutch Teslas waiting to charge on their way to Austria's slopes.

https://autobahn.eu/artikel/107244/l...de-tesla-video

Last year, the Tesla 3 was Holland's best-selling car: 12,000 cars in December. That was until Dec 31 when the government changed the tax rules for buying an electric car. In January, Tesla sold 36 (!!!) cars here in Holland...

Menno

[Andyg]

Lots of people think SUVs look good (I've heard grown men describe new Range Rovers as 'gorgeous' and 'beautiful'). It's no longer about cars actually looking good, it's about desirability and what the car says about you. And how the branding of a big old lump of an SUV fits in with what you want. I drove a brand new Range Rover for the first time last week and all it confirmed to me is people don't want these things for the pleasure of driving. Amazing damping, mind.

I was having a chat earlier with a friend who's desperate for a Singer. I told him I'd rather have an original 2.4S. He can drive but still wants what Morgan make, cars that evoke a bygone age and have a classic look (and associated image and lifestyle) but don't have the implied negatives (not so safe or reliable, for example). Fast cars these days come with all manner of technology that allow anyone to go fast while the cars try their best to stop them killing themselves. The age of F40 and so on, proper mens cars, are over. The supercar has changed, and is still changing.

I still think lightness is the future, and Ferrari have that knowledge and currently make incredibly interesting cars from carbonfibre and so on. Whether or not they stick electric, hybrid or petrol engines in them, they still have quite a lot over Tesla and anyone else. And who knows, Rimac currently work with 15 car manufacturers, maybe Ferrari's one.

Ref Singer, I have to disagree. The 2.4 is at best agricultural. Steering is wooly, suspension nasty, the brakes horrible and at the end of the day you are driving a car that is 50 years old. Full of character, etc, but not a great experience.

The Singer on the other hand is basically a new car, but dials all that Porsche "goodness" up to 11, whilst providing massive improvements in every aspect of the car. Don't forget that only part of a Singer that is original to the 964 donor car are its doors.
.
The only thing that betters a Singer (IMHO) would be a Porsche 918 closely followed by a RUF (any)

[Andyg]

Check this: the loooooooong row of Dutch Teslas waiting to charge on their way to Austria's slopes.

https://autobahn.eu/artikel/107244/l...de-tesla-video

Last year, the Tesla 3 was Holland's best-selling car: 12,000 cars in December. That was until Dec 31 when the government changed the tax rules for buying an electric car. In January, Tesla sold 36 (!!!) cars here in Holland...

Menno

I hope the charging points were Supercharges, otherwise some of those poor buggers will still be there, with NO other options available to them.

[MrSmith]

Does anyone really care? Ferrari sell 9000 cars a year. They are just billionaires playthings.
Cars will probably be just transport in the coming decades as legislation and sentiment have an impact on penis extension sales.
Instead of envy they will attract derision as the youth realise they belong to a bygone age in a world where driving is policed electronically and anything that does over 80mph is pointless.

[j0hnbarker]

Does anyone really care? Ferrari sell 9000 cars a year. They are just billionaires playthings.
Cars will probably be just transport in the coming decades as legislation and sentiment have an impact on penis extension sales.
Instead of envy they will attract derision as the youth realise they belong to a bygone age in a world where driving is policed electronically and anything that does over 80mph is pointless.

Save us the cod psychology.

The irony of your post on a forum dedicated to luxury products is clearly lost on you.

[MrSmith]

Save us the cod psychology.

The irony of your post on a forum dedicated to luxury products is clearly lost on you.

Not really. Cars are in a totally different league compared to watches (though I would imagine the ratio of workhorse sales to bling luxury is quite similar) they do not consume tonnes of raw materials, take up significant space and infrastructure, kill people or generate nearly 100 tons of pollution over their lifetime.
whatever you think about the climate or pollution, if you think it’s all a ruse and misinformation legislation will still mean cars and their usage will change significantly in the near future, look at the changes in the last 10 years.
They already have been demonised in many cities and are restrictively taxed and licensed and the young are often no longer interested in ownership of such a large depreciating asset when a Rolex is far more portable and can be stored without having a garage.
That’s not cod psychology, it’s just repeating what’s obvious to anyone who reads the news and can see what’s going on around them with taxation/speed cameras/car ownership in cities etc.

I love cars/motorsport but the golden age of motoring and motorsport is in the past.(imho)

Edit: did you read the link in the OP? I have but only after I wrote the above.
Do you think that’s cod psychology too?

[Omegamanic]

That reads like one of those bloody infomercials!

[j0hnbarker]

Not really. Cars are in a totally different league compared to watches (though I would imagine the ratio of workhorse sales to bling luxury is quite similar) they do not consume tonnes of raw materials, take up significant space and infrastructure, kill people or generate nearly 100 tons of pollution over their lifetime.
whatever you think about the climate or pollution, if you think it’s all a ruse and misinformation legislation will still mean cars and their usage will change significantly in the near future, look at the changes in the last 10 years.
They already have been demonised in many cities and are restrictively taxed and licensed and the young are often no longer interested in ownership of such a large depreciating asset when a Rolex is far more portable and can be stored without having a garage.
That’s not cod psychology, it’s just repeating what’s obvious to anyone who reads the news and can see what’s going on around them with taxation/speed cameras/car ownership in cities etc.

I love cars/motorsport but the golden age of motoring and motorsport is in the past.(imho)

Edit: did you read the link in the OP? I have but only after I wrote the above.
Do you think that’s cod psychology too?

Apologies, I should have been more specific.

In reference to your comments about performance cars being penis extensions, you clearly don’t know what you’re talking about, hence my remark about cod psychology.

[TheFlyingBanana]

Interesting article about the theoretical performance of a Jaguar iPace SVR:

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style...ic-car-0-60mph

[adrianw]

The Tesla Roadster will annihilate every other hypercar for a fraction of the price. This will be a game-changer in itself.

That's just not true, because of the instant torque it will have an advantage for maybe 50 metres, sub 2 second cars are theoretically around now, but most manufacturers hold back because of the reliability issues it causes, it will be the same for Tesla, its physics, things will break, the other obvious issues are battery life and weight, if it is carrying half a ton of batteries the slip angles are going to be very low in comparison to a 1200kg hypercar.

Tesla's days of battery powered cars are limited, they may be the darlings of the stock market right now, with ill informed politicians pushing EV hard but the technology is short lived, the infrastructure isn't in place, any roll out will take years, a 90kw Ipace is the energy equivalent of three houses, people wont queue at chargers waiting to fill up, most will charge at home, until electricity is rationed.

The future is hydrogen fuel cell.

[Chris_in_the_UK]

I agree - the furore of these things is clouding the reality.

That's just not true, because of the instant torque it will have an advantage for maybe 50 metres, sub 2 second cars are theoretically around now, but most manufacturers hold back because of the reliability issues it causes, it will be the same for Tesla, its physics, things will break, the other obvious issues are battery life and weight, if it is carrying half a ton of batteries the slip angles are going to be very low in comparison to a 1200kg hypercar.

Tesla's days of battery powered cars are limited, they may be the darlings of the stock market right now, with ill informed politicians pushing EV hard but the technology is short lived, the infrastructure isn't in place, any roll out will take years, a 90kw Ipace is the energy equivalent of three houses, people wont queue at chargers waiting to fill up, most will charge at home, until electricity is rationed.

The future is hydrogen fuel cell.

[TheFlyingBanana]

That's just not true, because of the instant torque it will have an advantage for maybe 50 metres, sub 2 second cars are theoretically around now, but most manufacturers hold back because of the reliability issues it causes, it will be the same for Tesla, its physics, things will break, the other obvious issues are battery life and weight, if it is carrying half a ton of batteries the slip angles are going to be very low in comparison to a 1200kg hypercar.

Tesla's days of battery powered cars are limited, they may be the darlings of the stock market right now, with ill informed politicians pushing EV hard but the technology is short lived, the infrastructure isn't in place, any roll out will take years, a 90kw Ipace is the energy equivalent of three houses, people wont queue at chargers waiting to fill up, most will charge at home, until electricity is rationed.

The future is hydrogen fuel cell.

I might have been a bit strong in my use of the "annihilate" , but as a lifelong petrolhead I am struggling to see much of a long-term future for any ICE based manufacturer.

I think the tipping point for electric is fast approaching, and the imminent launch of VW's new EV cars (with the aim of matching ICE prices) is going to be a key moment as all other manufacturers will have to follow suit.

Much as I love big V8's the vast majority of the next generation (I'm in my 40's) seem to have a very different attitude to them ranging from complete indifference to broad hostility. I can only see this becoming more marked as the younger generation are far, far more eco-aware than we ever were. I think within ten to fifteen years ICE owners will be viewed as anti-social in the same way that smokers have.

The hydrogen cell has, of course, been around for decades, and it keeps being promised as the "real" future, but it just doesn't seem anywhere close to materialising yet. My understanding is that it isn't just cost, but the issues around storage in volume (ie petrol stations would have to have their existing enormous underground fuel tanks dug up and replaced (very, very costly), and the tank storage challenges within cars.

Very happy to read any more on this that TZ'er recommend.

[adrianw]

I might have been a bit strong in my use of the "annihilate" , but as a lifelong petrolhead I am struggling to see much of a long-term future for any ICE based manufacturer.

I think the tipping point for electric is fast approaching, and the imminent launch of VW's new EV cars (with the aim of matching ICE prices) is going to be a key moment as all other manufacturers will have to follow suit.

Much as I love big V8's the vast majority of the next generation (I'm in my 40's) seem to have a very different attitude to them ranging from complete indifference to broad hostility. I can only see this becoming more marked as the younger generation are far, far more eco-aware than we ever were. I think within ten to fifteen years ICE owners will be viewed as anti-social in the same way that smokers have.

The hydrogen cell has, of course, been around for decades, and it keeps being promised as the "real" future, but it just doesn't seem anywhere close to materialising yet. My understanding is that it isn't just cost, but the issues around storage in volume (ie petrol stations would have to have their existing enormous underground fuel tanks dug up and replaced (very, very costly), and the tank storage challenges within cars.

Very happy to read any more on this that TZ'er recommend.

This lot just purchased Revolve technologies for their fuel cell developments https://www.cmb.be/en/news, Toyota have put everything into HFC

[MrSmith]

Apologies, I should have been more specific.

In reference to your comments about performance cars being penis extensions, you clearly don’t know what you’re talking about, hence my remark about cod psychology.

Apologies, i should have said ’status symbol’ not penis extension.

[Foxy100]

That's just not true, because of the instant torque it will have an advantage for maybe 50 metres, sub 2 second cars are theoretically around now, but most manufacturers hold back because of the reliability issues it causes, it will be the same for Tesla, its physics, things will break, the other obvious issues are battery life and weight, if it is carrying half a ton of batteries the slip angles are going to be very low in comparison to a 1200kg hypercar.

Tesla's days of battery powered cars are limited, they may be the darlings of the stock market right now, with ill informed politicians pushing EV hard but the technology is short lived, the infrastructure isn't in place, any roll out will take years, a 90kw Ipace is the energy equivalent of three houses, people wont queue at chargers waiting to fill up, most will charge at home, until electricity is rationed.

The future is hydrogen fuel cell.

I agree too.

A Dutch friend of mine reckons their government's green agenda means they'll have to start building nuclear power stations to produce the electricity to power all the electric cars they're going to need. And I don't believe nuclear is particularly popular in Holland. That's going to be an interesting one to work round.

I still maintain the only way we can continue to have cars is if they weigh significantly less, so the electric or other power plant can be significantly smaller/less fuel will be needed and brakes and tyres (which also throw out nasty particulates) can be smaller. That means SUVs will have to become as popular as diesel (someone else I was talking to, who deals in pollution from cars, reckons small capacity hybrid diesels are the best way to make a car right now) and we'll have to learn to accept bodywork not made from metal.

[Andyg]

I agree regrading HFC as well, with the proviso that there isn’t a huge break through in battery Technology (lighter, cheaper, smaller, etc), but you still have the issue with delivering electricity to charging stations (using the Grid).

Given that easiest way of making Hydrogen is via electricity, it make more sense to cover deserts in solar panels, use the electricity to create liquid hydrogen locally, which can then be bulk shipped (like gas/oil) to where it’s needed. The problem seems to be storage - cryogenic storage is impractical, but the answer may lie with carbon compounds (ironic).

[Chris_in_the_UK]

Apologies, i should have said ’status symbol’ not penis extension.

You posted this on a watch forum?

PMSL

[thieuster]

I agree too.

A Dutch friend of mine reckons their government's green agenda means they'll have to start building nuclear power stations to produce the electricity to power all the electric cars they're going to need. And I don't believe nuclear is particularly popular in Holland. That's going to be an interesting one to work round.

I still maintain the only way we can continue to have cars is if they weigh significantly less, so the electric or other power plant can be significantly smaller/less fuel will be needed and brakes and tyres (which also throw out nasty particulates) can be smaller. That means SUVs will have to become as popular as diesel (someone else I was talking to, who deals in pollution from cars, reckons small capacity hybrid diesels are the best way to make a car right now) and we'll have to learn to accept bodywork not made from metal.

There's a 'green agenda' here but that's a political plan drawn up by people who have no technical knowledge whatsoever. "Charging a Tesla uses the same amount of electrical power as powering 10 homes." Is the latest comment on that plan.
If and when we go 'electric', then all (all!!!) electrical infrastructure has to be dug up and has to be replaced... Another plan: no gas heating anymore (we have the stuff under our feet!) and change to heat exchange pumps... on the same time, German households receive a 700 euro grant from the government when they stop using oil or coal and change to clean natural gas!

Latest is the plan aired by Royal Shell to build the world's largest hydrogen power plant in the in far NE of the country. It would be capable of producing power for all and everything within 10 yrs.