Reply With QuoteExactly. You buy, or not, based on the answer YOU give to that question. And to the time you can keep the shares if the situation has longer lasting consequences.Originally Posted by 33JS
Why? What is the normal level that it should be at? 5000, 9000?
Exactly. You buy, or not, based on the answer YOU give to that question. And to the time you can keep the shares if the situation has longer lasting consequences.
'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.
Conventional wisdom is that the percentage stocks you should hold is 100 minus your age.
If you are close to retirement age and haven’t followed this rule, you may be working a few years longer.
The housing market in some areas took a massive hit in overheated areas such as Northern Ireland and has still not recovered those falls.. but it other areas it remained relatively stable in 2009 and continued with slower steady growth..as for our wrist watches they also remained stable in the last crash admittedly there wasn’t the overinflated hyped social media driven prices we see now with certain brands but as long as you are not paying wildly over rrp and following the herd mentality ..
We have no idea what the future holds but looking back the quality brands have remained strong.
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Just that over time the market has historically performed at 7% YOY growth after inflation (US Index). It will rarely do 7% exactly so will be -25%, plus 30% and so on. Therefore over a long term period (like 20 years) one would assume this still happens although of course there is absolutely no guarantee of it doing so. Buying some stock during declines may help to balance it out as well
We have a virus, reduced consumption, reduced output, Germany trying to keep Lufthansa afloat, the US not subject to the virus yet and Saudi trying to smash oil producing competitors around the world, northern Italy on lockdown, etc, etc.
This is a Universe away from normal swings in the market! If the EU have to start printing their way out we could hit multiple recessions...
Caveat: I'm just another opinion on the Internet.
I'm worried folks look for the quick buck and get wiped out in the chaos.
Just interested to ask, do you think that this is the worst it's ever been in "our" lifetimes?
(I am getting on, started work in 1965, so I've been around a bit)
I think, of all the things to worry about right now, other people making bad financial decisions is fairly low on my list!
I don't know, I'm no expert, but I see coinciding events from unknown (global virus effects) to known (output and consumer demand down) to WTAF (Saudi fekkin around at the mo) to how will regions react (Trump/Russia/EU).
I'm personally in cash and gold until there's some clarity. I may miss bottom absolute prices or I may stay solvent - there're huge stakes for individuals here.
Good point, but I don't like to see people suffer through naivety.
Totally agree. We're having shocks on both supply and demand side. Dare I say it, uncharted territory. The global recession we thought may have last year may now happen as the underlying fundamentals are being exposed by the virus.
I've reversed my decision last Friday to invest in the market. I'm going to go buy watches
Brexit - according to many will be an economic disaster for both parties
Syrian crisis - untold human and financial cost
Afghan crisis - will never end and the West has spent trillions
Global warming - what is this costing the world
and of course Mr Trump and the US printing presses,
and the ECB churning out paper faster than a Finnish forest
etc.,etc,
you may as well add all these
and whatever the "disaster" will be in April, May and June, whilst the others seem to get forgotten ......... and the end is near, so we are told by one expert or another appearing on the media each month.
anything good around??
The 2 nice Zenith's on SCI've reversed my decision last Friday to invest in the market. I'm going to go buy watches
(The market "sell off" - presumably soon there will be no shares to buy as they will all have been sold, then what happens - it really is an optical illusion)
Last edited by BillN; 9th March 2020 at 13:59.
You bet, 2008 was about contagion caused by sub prime mortgages and the subsequent loss of trust between the banks, fortunately central banks coordinated and were able to inject liquidity which saw us through-kept the patient alive. This time it´s not as simple although it is another type of contagion and Central Banks haven´t anything left in the arsenal. It´ll require some clever Governmental thinking and action, not sure that isn´t an oxymoron at this point though.
Honest to God, I think everyone has been caught out by the mixture and the blatant opportunism.
My 1 main opinion, despite the other factors, I think this virus 'has legs'...
Yeah, normally they could reduce rates and a few more tweaks. Now they might have to risk rampant inflation later. Interesting times!You bet, 2008 was about contagion caused by sub prime mortgages and the subsequent loss of trust between the banks, fortunately central banks coordinated and were able to inject liquidity which saw us through-kept the patient alive. This time it´s not as simple although it is another type of contagion and Central Banks haven´t anything left in the arsenal. It´ll require some clever Governmental thinking and action, not sure that isn´t an oxymoron at this point though.
Like you, I started working in the mid-60s. I remember when the Dow was at 600. The worst I've seen, on the Left Side of the Pond, was the Great Recession that started in the fall of 2008 and lasted for many years before slowly giving way to growth. I was also pounded when the Internet Bubble burst in 2000, and all my go-go Internet stocks went into the gutter. 1987 was probably much worse, but my investment portfolio was not that much to speak of.
In my experienced but non-professional opinion, this downturn will be dramatic but short-lived (unless the coronavirus continues snowballing into a massive global calamity). I personally believe there is adequate strength in the underlying global economy, especially that of the U.S., to weather the present challenge we are facing - - and then some.
In 2008, the fundamental strength had been squeezed out of the global economy, which was being propped up artificially by overvalued equities and a mountain of seriously bad loans. It's no wonder it took 6-8 years to re-build.
I thank my lucky stars my friend convinced my to sell everything after Day One of the wreckage. I haven't been remotely tempted to "buy the dip" yet...not until there are clear signs that the coronavirus is past its peak, at least in terms of control.
Pc do you think there is any possibility f a domino chain of fracking companies who have loaded up on cheap debt going bust now that the oil price has dropped dramatically, will they be able to service their debts next month, 3 months, 6 months time...It seems the most likely thing maybe only thing to calm the markets will be an announcement of a vaccine but conservative estimates suggest that’s 6 to 12 months in the future...can the world possibly avoid a global recession by weathering a year of this volatility... I am not convinced, admittedly nobody has a crystal ball. Personally just happy to be on the sidelines, with limited stock market exposure.
Your President is speaking to the Country in a few minutes
So what! Blah blah blah...
Don't know...but just saw this pointed article on cnn.com just now:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/econo...rus/index.html
Yup that's pretty much it.
FTSE now down 30% off its peak.
Oh well, it’s only money.
It's starting to sting a little... Impatiently waiting for gold price to really take off but still not happening...
I read it’s because traders are having to sell gold to cover serious losses on spreads
If you look at 2008/9 gold initially went down with everything else, it took a little while to rebound. Patience, it looks good to make a good run up in the coming months.
I stuck £20k in on Monday and I'm down £1k so far
Thinking about investing further this week
Thanks, certainly hope you're right, makes perfect sense.
You've done well to only be 5% down. I was expecting more. Big question now is will the FTSE go below 5k.
Think thats the big question. Will be interesting to see what are the outcomes of todays Cobra meeting.
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Buy on the rumour, but sell on the fact.
Can’t see any factual good news in the near future, so I won’t be buying on the dips just yet.
As soon a the news starts to turn positive I’ll unload a few pennies on the stock market.
I was planning to put another £10k in today into a Footsie tracker - but I'm not a fan of "trackers" and have always tended to stock pick and fancied a £5k "gamble" into ITV shares, (a company that I have always followed) - reports are "doom and gloom" because of the fall off in advertising revenue ........ but the share price is below 90p today, and given the (past) yield and possible take over rumours it may be worth a punt.
for every seller there is a buyer, so the stock must be going somewhere?
Flying back from S Africa tomorrow - I'd rather stay here but my wife want's to get back home!!!
There are some big individual falls today
FTSE 100 - Fallers
Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.) 461.00p -14.25%
Compass Group (CPG) 1,200.00p -12.02%
Centrica (CNA) 47.23p -10.79%
Anglo American (AAL) 1,363.80p -10.35%
Standard Life Aberdeen (SLA) 220.20p -9.94%
JD Sports Fashion (JD.) 546.20p -9.90%
Aveva Group (AVV) 3,036.00p -9.59%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 360.20p -9.25%
Just Eat Takeaway.Com N.V. (CDI) (JET) 5,505.00p -9.08%
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 3,450.50p -8.49%
FTSE 250 - Fallers
Brewin Dolphin Holdings (BRW) 173.70p -31.13%
AJ Bell (AJB) 229.00p -26.25%
TP ICAP (TCAP) 266.60p -24.90%
McCarthy & Stone (MCS) 91.55p -22.74%
Investec (INVP) 255.90p -22.27%
Cineworld Group (CINE) 70.16p -20.63%
IWG (IWG) 220.60p -20.48%
Go-Ahead Group (GOG) 1,341.00p -20.27%
Finablr (FIN) 18.00p -19.79%
Bodycote (BOY) 523.00p -18.41%
Last edited by BillN; 12th March 2020 at 10:44.
I'm confused by your statement. Do you understand the role of the Market Makers? There's a good article here: https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk...market-makers/
I follow my gut feelings, (plus any info I can pick up on the internet), and I feel that there will now be buyers of ITV stock..........at below 90p, (currently 85p), ...... but I don't usually state which shares I buy, (or sell)
The link is subscriber only.
The market makers only have so much capacity.
Flocks of black swans continue...
I said buy at 30% down on mid feb levels (which we're now at) - however, it does seem as if mass hysteria is very much alive and not yet at peak. Wait till bars and pubs close. Very little reason to not go further down.
Looking at previous drops, HSI dropped 50% peak to trough during SARS in 2003, and almost 60% during the 2008 financial crisis. So history suggests we still have further to go.
Plus we've had unnaturally low interest rates and QE for over a decade now which have caused unsustainable frothiness and deformations, lot's of bats coming home to roost yet.
Looking at Novacyt again it looks like it’s the moment of truth probably today “mon”or latest possibly Tuesday
Good luck fellas
Smoke and mirrors now at £6.50.
What a fool I must have been
RIAC
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