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Thread: Question about the stock markets

  1. #1
    Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Question about the stock markets

    Guys. Would welcome any insight. Global stocks were doing their thing until coronavirus hit China. There was a contraction of around 4.5% but since then stocks have bounced back and are above their pre-coronavirus levels. How can that be? We don't yet know how the virus will play out, moreover much of China is in lockdown and the economic fallout will be huge. So would be interested to get takes on why markets are ABOVE the period when the virus wasn't even mainstream news and China was at full steam. Reeks of froth to me

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Guys. Would welcome any insight. Global stocks were doing their thing until coronavirus hit China. There was a contraction of around 4.5% but since then stocks have bounced back and are above their pre-coronavirus levels. How can that be? We don't yet know how the virus will play out, moreover much of China is in lockdown and the economic fallout will be huge. So would be interested to get takes on why markets are ABOVE the period when the virus wasn't even mainstream news and China was at full steam. Reeks of froth to me
    Didn't the Chinese govt. announce they'll be taking special measures, ie printing money and chucking it at the markets to shore up...at least I think I caught summat along those lines yesterday, maybe day before...tbh I believe the bourses are all rather frothy/manipulated at this stage and it's hard for the layman to genuinely gauge real value/true worth so don't dwell on/overcommit to them too much personally. But like you interested in the views of others, heck this could turn out to be a major 'trigger' event yet, time will tell.

  3. #3
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    https://apple.news/AiLmDVj40RHaTeekGmy2ohQ


    “Our best guess is that the economic disruption related to the coronavirus will cost the world economy over $280 billion in the first quarter of this year,” Capital Economics, the consultancy, said. “If we’re right, then this will mean that global GDP will not grow in quarter-on-quarter terms for the first time since 2009.”

    China’s recent industrial paralysis is straining the supply chains of large multinationals. Research by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai found that 87 per cent of its members believed that the coronavirus would have a direct negative impact on their revenues.”


    I was expecting a greater reaction from markets generally. Having said that, I’ve a poor record of predicting such things!
    Last edited by David_D; 11th February 2020 at 10:25.

  4. #4
    Master sish101's Avatar
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    My wife works in finance and always reminds me of the mantra "the value of shares may fall as well as plummet".

    Sent through the ether by diddling with radio waves

  5. #5
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    It is not predictable, many tried and are counting their loses.

  6. #6
    Grand Master
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    I sold some investments to last November to fund a house deal that looks like its going belly up. If it does happen Iíll be selling my own house later in the year, if it doesnít Iíll be reinvesting the war chest Iíve currently got, so either way Iíll be buying back into investments at some point. Hopefully the market will keep dropping and I can re- invest at a good time. I invest to generate an income rather than for capital growth.

  7. #7
    Its because it isn't real money and share pricing bares little resemblance to company performance,

  8. #8
    Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by adrianw View Post
    Its because it isn't real money and share pricing bares little resemblance to company performance,
    Pretty much what I've concluded and reason it isn't real is because it isn't in the protagonists' interests for it to be real either. Else no bonuses

  9. #9
    Master TKH's Avatar
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    Truly interesting times timing of Corona outbreak at same time many listed companies release results is muddying the true picture as market is lunging constantly and has therefore shifted investors sentiments and confidence with many opting for safety in cash until normality resumes.

    When its over there will potentially possibly maybe hopefully be a surge but you have to be brave to buy the dips.....

    Amazon is doing well But the whole Tesla thing last week was bizarre no doubt as many lost as profited .....


    Theres always safety in Ďstainlessí......haha ...

  10. #10

    Question about the stock markets

    I guess there is nowhere you can get an above inflation return with relatively low risk. Hence more and more piling into the stock market.

    I have a chunk of money which is sitting as cash at the moment. Iíd rather stick it in a instant access savings account paying 0.5% less than inflation thatís risk a 30% drop.

    I may be losing 0.5% per annum on my investment, but the stock markets are far to frothy for me, and something has to give after a 10 year bull run.

  11. #11
    Grand Master
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    I would only echo Mr Glove. If/when there's blood on the floor I'll likely take a punt, but I'm 'biased' towards property as it's serving me well.

  12. #12
    Grand Master Neil.C's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by adrianw View Post
    Its because it isn't real money and share pricing bares little resemblance to company performance,
    Is the correct answer.
    Cheers,
    Neil.

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    http://www.freewebs.com/neil271052

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Guys. Would welcome any insight. Global stocks were doing their thing until coronavirus hit China. There was a contraction of around 4.5% but since then stocks have bounced back and are above their pre-coronavirus levels. How can that be? We don't yet know how the virus will play out, moreover much of China is in lockdown and the economic fallout will be huge. So would be interested to get takes on why markets are ABOVE the period when the virus wasn't even mainstream news and China was at full steam. Reeks of froth to me
    The market clearly thinks the cortintia virus will be resolved quickly and normal service will resume.If it gets worse and no end in sight with flights still being cancelled & China still closed for business then markets will start dropping sharply.

  14. #14
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    I read a couple days ago that China decided to cut back on their tariffs on U.S. products, which could have an impact on the world economy. The coronavirus in China is helping the U.S. in its trade war with China, as the latter's economy - - already weakened by Washington's massive tarrifs - - is now being cripple by the virus. Trump is smiling!

  15. #15
    Grand Master hogthrob's Avatar
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    We can expect short term supply restrictions for items manufactured in China, leading to another Rolex price increase ...

  16. #16
    The longer this goes on the more of an impact on a global level. The moment it tails off, all will be forgotten. For now the Chinese economy already under pressure from Trump was suffering and the luxury goods manufacturers are feeling it, the Coronavirus has made it worse, hence the panic selling of many prime Rolex pieces on the forum. I suspect we will see some sports models back in the windows in the next few months. I for one and keeping my powder dry, waiting to pounce on some bargains.

  17. #17
    Master Skyman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by walkerwek1958 View Post
    I sold some investments to last November to fund a house deal that looks like its going belly up. If it does happen Iíll be selling my own house later in the year, if it doesnít Iíll be reinvesting the war chest Iíve currently got, so either way Iíll be buying back into investments at some point. Hopefully the market will keep dropping and I can re- invest at a good time. I invest to generate an income rather than for capital growth.
    Mate, the point is the market is not dropping!

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Skyman View Post
    Mate, the point is the market is not dropping!
    It will if this goes on much longer.

  19. #19
    Master Skyman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by langdalematt View Post
    It will if this goes on much longer.
    Aka Rolex bubble.

  20. #20
    Journeyman
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    The market has priced in drops.

    The affect is different by sectors whether it is companies being forced to pay more for components because China canít ship them or Chinese retails markets are not open.

    Some shares are being shorted in anticipation of moves.

    The Chinese data is showing infections plateauing - but is it reliable. China is permitting some factories to reopen.

    airlines, travel tourism are affected, Techs that are reliant on China versus services companies.

    Etc. Etc.

  21. #21
    Master KavKav's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hogthrob View Post
    We can expect short term supply restrictions for items manufactured in China, leading to another Rolex price increase ...
    Yet another Rolex price increase? Surely not, must be a typo!

  22. #22
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    Great place to be since yesterday and next week and next month whoís knows where itíll go


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  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    I guess there is nowhere you can get an above inflation return with relatively low risk. Hence more and more piling into the stock market.

    I have a chunk of money which is sitting as cash at the moment. Iíd rather stick it in a instant access savings account paying 0.5% less than inflation thatís risk a 30% drop.

    I may be losing 0.5% per annum on my investment, but the stock markets are far to frothy for me, and something has to give after a 10 year bull run.
    I remember reading similar sentiments along with the US being expensive at the start of 2019. Might be famous last words but if Iíd have pulled out of equities then Iíd have missed out on a 22% gain.

  24. #24
    Grand Master Neil.C's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maris View Post
    I remember reading similar sentiments along with the US being expensive at the start of 2019. Might be famous last words but if Iíd have pulled out of equities then Iíd have missed out on a 22% gain.
    Exactly.

    Nobody can predict the markets.

    Stick with it and buy every month for the benefit of pound cost averaging.
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  25. #25
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    The only way to work out if we have made the correct investment decision is when we look back in hindsight.

    Bulls are always right eventually as are Bears. We are on a long bull run this is true, I think we have more gains ahead this year, so many people are negative that I think (I am likely wrong) that the market has priced in the uncertainty.

    As the adage goes, when everyone is telling you to buy, sell and vice versa. Only a very small percentage of fund managers outperform their benchmarks, it's tough to decipher which information is of value when investing.

  26. #26
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    NCYT

    Great place to be since yesterday and next week and next month whoís knows where itíll go


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    Well today continues and no ones noticed. Please donít thank me with whisky
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  27. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Well today continues and no ones noticed. Please donít thank me with whisky
    Very well done -but if me Iíd be selling now not buying

  28. #28
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by speedypro1111 View Post
    Very well done -but if me Iíd be selling now not buying
    You would sell just before the FDA, EU and NHS approval that will see orders go mental.

    Or sell now before the true scale and size of the problem explodes! In at .57p so until they hit that im sound but have left a stop limit to sell double that. But I think £3-4 this week is possible.
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
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  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    You would sell just before the FDA, EU and NHS approval that will see orders go mental.

    Or sell now before the true scale and size of the problem explodes! In at .57p so until they hit that im sound but have left a stop limit to sell double that. But I think £3-4 this week is possible.
    Who knows?
    You could be right or terribly wrong ...
    Iím looking at the rsi at nearly 89 and way out of the Bollys
    Well done for getting in at 57p though I saw it around 40p last week but didnít look into it
    But Iím not brave or daft enough to start buying now Iíve been spiked and lost my shirt before..lol
    Good luck though
    Also take a look at AGL.L they been trying for FDA etc etc approval for years -itís not a short process
    Going by the above
    Iíve seen shares spike like this 100ís of times and I canít think of any that havenít come back to earth with a bang
    Last edited by speedypro1111; 17th February 2020 at 20:22.

  30. #30
    Still not intrested but should /could bounce around 110 area ;-)

  31. #31
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by speedypro1111 View Post
    Still not intrested but should /could bounce around 110 area ;-)
    Having had a stop limit sell the lot at over £2 Iíll take any corrections the MMís are pushing prior to potential FDA and RNS announcements.

    All good fun.
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  32. #32
    Well done Kerry mate ...
    It was like I say well overbought
    But if you still like the story around here is time to re-enter with a tightish stop say 95p
    Me I still think itís all smoke and mirrors so wonít be playing on this one

  33. #33
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by speedypro1111 View Post
    Well done Kerry mate ...
    It was like I say well overbought
    But if you still like the story around here is time to re-enter with a tightish stop say 95p
    Me I still think itís all smoke and mirrors so wonít be playing on this one
    Would be a little unfair to base it all on 1 hours trading, it needs a longer roll and also to be allowed to get FDA funding or figures for orders being released. You know when anything is exciting its lively too. My advise to the very limited group I told last week was get in at a £1 and out at £2 and youíve doubled your money, trebling it was a bonus. Not a lot to lose buying in the dip at say £2k, if it flops youíve lost what your car probably loses every 6 months its on the drive and if it drives back to £2 or £3 then you can book a luxury Japanese cruise on the profits
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  34. #34
    Problem for me Kerry is itís the aim market
    Fortunes made and lost -mostly lost ..lol

    I also see a gap on my chart around 20p area
    Not saying it will but it could go back there soon enough

  35. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Having had a stop limit sell the lot at over £2 Iíll take any corrections the MMís are pushing prior to potential FDA and RNS announcements.

    All good fun.
    Had not seen this, my friend has been banging on about this, I had a small gamble. Congratulations mate, nice trade.

  36. #36
    Master subseastu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Well today continues and no ones noticed. Please donít thank me with whisky
    Well in typical Stu fashion I looked at this and thought its worth a punt. Chucked a couple hundred quid at it and blow seems I purchased bang on the peak the other day (1.8989). £200 now worth £137!!! Bugger

  37. #37
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by subseastu View Post
    Well in typical Stu fashion I looked at this and thought its worth a punt. Chucked a couple hundred quid at it and blow seems I purchased bang on the peak the other day (1.8989). £200 now worth £137!!! Bugger
    The patient get rich by inpatient

    You will be ok. Just sit
    Back and relax
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  38. #38
    Master subseastu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    The patient get rich by inpatient

    You will be ok. Just sit
    Back and relax
    Can't really do anything else, lol. Its not like I've put the mortgage payment down or anything. Be interesting to see if it makes anything.

  39. #39
    Looking like circa 64p then bounce to my eyes

  40. #40
    For the record-Iím still not buying
    May rocket 🚀 but I wonít buy anything Iím not prepared to hold for the long haul
    Also if it bounces should get circa 83p tomorrow..possibly more but Iíd be selling around 83p
    If it donít bounce without having a good look at charts Iíd imagine 50p could be on cards quiet easily or the very worst case with total collapse 20p to close the gap
    Last edited by speedypro1111; 20th February 2020 at 17:33.

  41. #41
    Last one on this subject from me ...

    If ? It falls again 1st thing in morning and anyone fancies theyíre chances
    Look for these numbers
    57p
    50p as itís a nice round number;-)
    44p
    And last 31p
    All mid price on my charts

    ďMy own thoughts only ď
    8am to 9am they will drop it at some point to 57p mid price to scare the weak out
    This is the time to buy if you fancy a gamble
    But please donít follow my thoughts or blame me if it goes wrong
    Alternatively they could take it upwards from the off
    Or the elusive RNs lands etc etc

    I personally canít see it going lower than 57p tommorow but It will cost me nothing if it does
    So either way and whatever the side of the fence anyone is on good luck 😉
    Again Iíd be looking at selling this position at around 83p could go higher ? Might not even get to 83p ?
    But thatís what Iíd be looking for or as near as possible

    Anyone who gets it right all the time ,Donít believe them ...
    There is no gurus in the stock market everyone gets it wrong the trick is to get it right more times than wrong

    Id say I do ok but I have a weakness of not going all in to start with,then getting greedy if my trade is doing ok ,so I buy more and more to maximise my gains .then realise Iím not comfortable with my position so sell 😆 but Usually at the wrong time 😂
    Iíve also been known to panic sell at wrong times when infact with hindsight I should have been buying more

    Itís certainly not as easy as it can look to make money consistently out of the market
    But learning about charts and indicators is a good start if you want to have a gamble or look after your own money
    I Prefer to position and swing trade on support and resistance levels overbought/oversold etc etc
    works better for me ,Taking a quick profit and run
    Probably never make me a millionaire but investing for the long haul is not my style and I find it too stressful watching the price come back down again wiping out any profit

    Iíll be honest I wouldnít have ridden Novacyt up to over £2 ,
    I wouldnít have even believed it would have gotten there either
    Iíd have sold probably at £1 originally
    So Your doing better than me Kerry ...
    76.4 on fib chart around here also
    this should support price for a bounce-Iím saying it will bounce around here but as above I still think they will try scare you early doors to make it look as though itís going for full retracement to 21p
    Price has collapsed to be honest and exactly why aim is dangerous
    Last edited by speedypro1111; 21st February 2020 at 00:16.

  42. #42
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    Well I think youíll be happy. First hour of today has seen a 86% rise so depending where your stop limit is you will be on the whisky
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  43. #43
    Certainly moves this one

  44. #44
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    Indeed another great start to the week. Appears your predictions were slightly off.
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  45. #45
    Not meaning to offend but What did I predict?
    I could have traded it twice and made money both times
    It was way overbought as I said originally when I noticed it at £1.88
    I still think itís all based on fresh air but if you donít thatís fine mate
    Iíve no vested interest in the share either way
    I wish you the best with your trading /investing though

  46. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by jonny View Post
    The market clearly thinks the cortintia virus will be resolved quickly and normal service will resume.If it gets worse and no end in sight with flights still being cancelled & China still closed for business then markets will start dropping sharply.
    Worst week (so far ) for the stock market since the Credit Crunch.

  47. #47
    Master Grandiloquence's Avatar
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    Yep, logged in today to see Lindsell Train had tanked hard. Luckily my other stuff is doing ok at the moment.

  48. #48
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    Unless you were planning on selling LT soon for some reason it won't make any difference IMO. Things will bounce back and no one knows when to sell or buy to take advantage either way.

  49. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by Bondurant View Post
    Unless you were planning on selling LT soon for some reason it won't make any difference IMO. Things will bounce back and no one knows when to sell or buy to take advantage either way.
    Probably, but you never can tell.

    The Japanese stock market peaked in 1989 at just shy of 39,000.

    Twenty years later from the peak it was at less than 9,000.

  50. #50
    Craftsman
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    True. An argument for diversified investment. LT is I think heavily invested in Japan and has done well. Probably started the fund post the period you are talking about though.

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