Question about the stock markets

[ryanb741]

Guys. Would welcome any insight. Global stocks were doing their thing until coronavirus hit China. There was a contraction of around 4.5% but since then stocks have bounced back and are above their pre-coronavirus levels. How can that be? We don't yet know how the virus will play out, moreover much of China is in lockdown and the economic fallout will be huge. So would be interested to get takes on why markets are ABOVE the period when the virus wasn't even mainstream news and China was at full steam. Reeks of froth to me

[Passenger]

Guys. Would welcome any insight. Global stocks were doing their thing until coronavirus hit China. There was a contraction of around 4.5% but since then stocks have bounced back and are above their pre-coronavirus levels. How can that be? We don't yet know how the virus will play out, moreover much of China is in lockdown and the economic fallout will be huge. So would be interested to get takes on why markets are ABOVE the period when the virus wasn't even mainstream news and China was at full steam. Reeks of froth to me

Didn't the Chinese govt. announce they'll be taking special measures, ie printing money and chucking it at the markets to shore up...at least I think I caught summat along those lines yesterday, maybe day before...tbh I believe the bourses are all rather frothy/manipulated at this stage and it's hard for the layman to genuinely gauge real value/true worth so don't dwell on/overcommit to them too much personally. But like you interested in the views of others, heck this could turn out to be a major 'trigger' event yet, time will tell.

[David_D]

https://apple.news/AiLmDVj40RHaTeekGmy2ohQ


“Our best guess is that the economic disruption related to the coronavirus will cost the world economy over $280 billion in the first quarter of this year,” Capital Economics, the consultancy, said. “If we’re right, then this will mean that global GDP will not grow in quarter-on-quarter terms for the first time since 2009.”

China’s recent industrial paralysis is straining the supply chains of large multinationals. Research by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai found that 87 per cent of its members believed that the coronavirus would have a direct negative impact on their revenues.”

I was expecting a greater reaction from markets generally. Having said that, I’ve a poor record of predicting such things!

[xellos99]

It is not predictable, many tried and are counting their loses.

[sish101]

My wife works in finance and always reminds me of the mantra "the value of shares may fall as well as plummet".

Sent through the ether by diddling with radio waves

[walkerwek1958]

I sold some investments to last November to fund a house deal that looks like its going belly up. If it does happen I’ll be selling my own house later in the year, if it doesn’t I’ll be reinvesting the war chest I’ve currently got, so either way I’ll be buying back into investments at some point. Hopefully the market will keep dropping and I can re- invest at a good time. I invest to generate an income rather than for capital growth.

[adrianw]

Its because it isn't real money and share pricing bares little resemblance to company performance,

[ryanb741]

Its because it isn't real money and share pricing bares little resemblance to company performance,

Pretty much what I've concluded and reason it isn't real is because it isn't in the protagonists' interests for it to be real either. Else no bonuses

[TKH]

Truly interesting times timing of Corona outbreak at same time many listed companies release results is muddying the true picture as market is lunging constantly and has therefore shifted investors sentiments and confidence with many opting for safety in cash until normality resumes.

When its over there will potentially possibly maybe hopefully be a surge but you have to be brave to buy the dips.....

Amazon is doing well But the whole Tesla thing last week was bizarre no doubt as many lost as profited .....


Theres always safety in ‘stainless’......haha ...

[Neil.C]

Its because it isn't real money and share pricing bares little resemblance to company performance,

Is the correct answer.

[Passenger]

I read today that Bloomberg estimates 6 TRILLION has gone poooft since late January, there's irrational and then out right bonkers...amazing scenes, and numbers. What a mad world.

[Skyman]

I sold some investments to last November to fund a house deal that looks like its going belly up. If it does happen I’ll be selling my own house later in the year, if it doesn’t I’ll be reinvesting the war chest I’ve currently got, so either way I’ll be buying back into investments at some point. Hopefully the market will keep dropping and I can re- invest at a good time. I invest to generate an income rather than for capital growth.

Mate, the point is the market is not dropping!

[langdalematt]

Mate, the point is the market is not dropping!

It will if this goes on much longer.

[Skyman]

It will if this goes on much longer.

Aka Rolex bubble.

[noTAGlove]

I guess there is nowhere you can get an above inflation return with relatively low risk. Hence more and more piling into the stock market.

I have a chunk of money which is sitting as cash at the moment. I’d rather stick it in a instant access savings account paying 0.5% less than inflation that’s risk a 30% drop.

I may be losing 0.5% per annum on my investment, but the stock markets are far to frothy for me, and something has to give after a 10 year bull run.

[Maris]

I guess there is nowhere you can get an above inflation return with relatively low risk. Hence more and more piling into the stock market.

I have a chunk of money which is sitting as cash at the moment. I’d rather stick it in a instant access savings account paying 0.5% less than inflation that’s risk a 30% drop.

I may be losing 0.5% per annum on my investment, but the stock markets are far to frothy for me, and something has to give after a 10 year bull run.

I remember reading similar sentiments along with the US being expensive at the start of 2019. Might be famous last words but if I’d have pulled out of equities then I’d have missed out on a 22% gain.

[Neil.C]

I remember reading similar sentiments along with the US being expensive at the start of 2019. Might be famous last words but if I’d have pulled out of equities then I’d have missed out on a 22% gain.

Exactly.

Nobody can predict the markets.

Stick with it and buy every month for the benefit of pound cost averaging.

[maccer]

The only way to work out if we have made the correct investment decision is when we look back in hindsight.

Bulls are always right eventually as are Bears. We are on a long bull run this is true, I think we have more gains ahead this year, so many people are negative that I think (I am likely wrong) that the market has priced in the uncertainty.

As the adage goes, when everyone is telling you to buy, sell and vice versa. Only a very small percentage of fund managers outperform their benchmarks, it's tough to decipher which information is of value when investing.

[Passenger]

well said.

[Mr.D]

Saying that I reckon if you buy physical gold before the NYMEX opens at 1300 today its likely to go up a fair bit today due to panic buying.

[Passenger]

Saying that I reckon if you buy physical gold before the NYMEX opens at 1300 today its likely to go up a fair bit today due to panic buying.

rather enjoying watching the gold price, bought mine donkeys years ago.

[Saint-Just]

rather enjoying watching the gold price, bought mine donkeys years ago.

You still need to decide when to sell. Gold is a brilliant asset in times of crisis, and I am sure you can cash it in at any time and make a nice profit. Maximising this is more difficult though, and if you don't need the liquidity choosing where to reinvest (and when to sell again to buy gold when prices have fallen).

[Mr.D]

rather enjoying watching the gold price, bought mine donkeys years ago.

Its dropped a lot today . My gold trading instincts at their usual best !

[Passenger]

I would only echo Mr Glove. If/when there's blood on the floor I'll likely take a punt, but I'm 'biased' towards property as it's serving me well.

[jonny]

Guys. Would welcome any insight. Global stocks were doing their thing until coronavirus hit China. There was a contraction of around 4.5% but since then stocks have bounced back and are above their pre-coronavirus levels. How can that be? We don't yet know how the virus will play out, moreover much of China is in lockdown and the economic fallout will be huge. So would be interested to get takes on why markets are ABOVE the period when the virus wasn't even mainstream news and China was at full steam. Reeks of froth to me

The market clearly thinks the cortintia virus will be resolved quickly and normal service will resume.If it gets worse and no end in sight with flights still being cancelled & China still closed for business then markets will start dropping sharply.

[pacifichrono]

I read a couple days ago that China decided to cut back on their tariffs on U.S. products, which could have an impact on the world economy. The coronavirus in China is helping the U.S. in its trade war with China, as the latter's economy - - already weakened by Washington's massive tarrifs - - is now being cripple by the virus. Trump is smiling!

[hogthrob]

We can expect short term supply restrictions for items manufactured in China, leading to another Rolex price increase ...

[langdalematt]

The longer this goes on the more of an impact on a global level. The moment it tails off, all will be forgotten. For now the Chinese economy already under pressure from Trump was suffering and the luxury goods manufacturers are feeling it, the Coronavirus has made it worse, hence the panic selling of many prime Rolex pieces on the forum. I suspect we will see some sports models back in the windows in the next few months. I for one and keeping my powder dry, waiting to pounce on some bargains.

[KavKav]

We can expect short term supply restrictions for items manufactured in China, leading to another Rolex price increase ...

Yet another Rolex price increase? Surely not, must be a typo!

[jonny]

The market clearly thinks the cortintia virus will be resolved quickly and normal service will resume.If it gets worse and no end in sight with flights still being cancelled & China still closed for business then markets will start dropping sharply.

Worst week (so far ) for the stock market since the Credit Crunch.

[Grandiloquence]

Yep, logged in today to see Lindsell Train had tanked hard. Luckily my other stuff is doing ok at the moment.

[joe narvey]

The market has priced in drops.

The affect is different by sectors whether it is companies being forced to pay more for components because China can’t ship them or Chinese retails markets are not open.

Some shares are being shorted in anticipation of moves.

The Chinese data is showing infections plateauing - but is it reliable. China is permitting some factories to reopen.

airlines, travel tourism are affected, Techs that are reliant on China versus services companies.

Etc. Etc.

[100thmonkey]

NCYT

Great place to be since yesterday and next week and next month who’s knows where it’ll go


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[100thmonkey]

NCYT

Great place to be since yesterday and next week and next month who’s knows where it’ll go


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Well today continues and no ones noticed. Please don’t thank me with whisky

[speedypro1111]

Well today continues and no ones noticed. Please don’t thank me with whisky

Very well done -but if me I’d be selling now not buying

[100thmonkey]

Very well done -but if me I’d be selling now not buying

You would sell just before the FDA, EU and NHS approval that will see orders go mental.

Or sell now before the true scale and size of the problem explodes! In at .57p so until they hit that im sound but have left a stop limit to sell double that. But I think £3-4 this week is possible.

[speedypro1111]

You would sell just before the FDA, EU and NHS approval that will see orders go mental.

Or sell now before the true scale and size of the problem explodes! In at .57p so until they hit that im sound but have left a stop limit to sell double that. But I think £3-4 this week is possible.

Who knows?
You could be right or terribly wrong ...
I’m looking at the rsi at nearly 89 and way out of the Bollys
Well done for getting in at 57p though I saw it around 40p last week but didn’t look into it
But I’m not brave or daft enough to start buying now I’ve been spiked and lost my shirt before..lol
Good luck though
Also take a look at AGL.L they been trying for FDA etc etc approval for years -it’s not a short process
Going by the above
I’ve seen shares spike like this 100’s of times and I can’t think of any that haven’t come back to earth with a bang

[subseastu]

Well today continues and no ones noticed. Please don’t thank me with whisky

Well in typical Stu fashion I looked at this and thought its worth a punt. Chucked a couple hundred quid at it and blow seems I purchased bang on the peak the other day (1.8989). £200 now worth £137!!! Bugger

[100thmonkey]

Well in typical Stu fashion I looked at this and thought its worth a punt. Chucked a couple hundred quid at it and blow seems I purchased bang on the peak the other day (1.8989). £200 now worth £137!!! Bugger

The patient get rich by inpatient

You will be ok. Just sit
Back and relax

[subseastu]

The patient get rich by inpatient

You will be ok. Just sit
Back and relax

Can't really do anything else, lol. Its not like I've put the mortgage payment down or anything. Be interesting to see if it makes anything.

[speedypro1111]

NCYT

Great place to be since yesterday and next week and next month who’s knows where it’ll go


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Finally I had a little punt on this yesterday at 93.8p
But I’m now out again at £1.08
Thanks for putting it in my mind Kerry
Odds were stacked on a bounce today If only to around £1.16
Could go higher and I hope it does for you guys

[Christian]

Finally I had a little punt on this yesterday at 93.8p
But I’m now out again at £1.08
Thanks for putting it in my mind Kerry
Odds were stacked on a bounce today If only to around £1.16
Could go higher and I hope it does for you guys

Basic question...how do you do short term share trading...I dabbled in crypto, didn’t do that well but found it entertaining. Can I do the same with shares?

[Bondurant]

You can...you just need a trading account at e.g. Interactive Investor or similar.

[speedypro1111]

I.G index is what I use
But you could use any of the online share trading sites to do day trading

I personally like ig index as it has free charting software

[100thmonkey]

Well I think you’ll be happy. First hour of today has seen a 86% rise so depending where your stop limit is you will be on the whisky

[speedypro1111]

Certainly moves this one

[100thmonkey]

Indeed another great start to the week. Appears your predictions were slightly off.

[speedypro1111]

Not meaning to offend but What did I predict?
I could have traded it twice and made money both times
It was way overbought as I said originally when I noticed it at £1.88
I still think it’s all based on fresh air but if you don’t that’s fine mate
I’ve no vested interest in the share either way
I wish you the best with your trading /investing though

[Bondurant]

Unless you were planning on selling LT soon for some reason it won't make any difference IMO. Things will bounce back and no one knows when to sell or buy to take advantage either way.

[noTAGlove]

Unless you were planning on selling LT soon for some reason it won't make any difference IMO. Things will bounce back and no one knows when to sell or buy to take advantage either way.

Probably, but you never can tell.

The Japanese stock market peaked in 1989 at just shy of 39,000.

Twenty years later from the peak it was at less than 9,000.