Not if. They are.
Today I've been offered the following from a London based grey dealer that is a bonafide business.
BNIB blue dial PP 5711. £41k. Pretty sure people were asking £65k+ 4 or 5 months ago. Isn't RRP £34k or so, meaning mark up is around 20% now?
BNIB Rolex GMT BLNR on Jubilee. £10.9k. Again I thought these were £12k+ until today
BNIB Rolex GMT Pepsi. £13.7k. Once again I thought these were £15k+
These were offered to me as I've bought from them a lot before and cannot be availed of by a walk in customer (so please don't ask me to say who the grey is as I can't) but of course they will offer this to their good customers also I'm sure.
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RRP on a stainless 5711 is 23k, but 41k is the lowest grey price I’ve heard of in a long time. Not a terrible deal if it has the new hacking movement.
BLNRs I’ve watched coming down for the last month or so.
The prices of Patek and Rolex stainless models on the secondary market are ludicrous. I think they’ll stagnate or fall slowly until RRP catches up - which it is doing now on some models.
Yip, prices seem to be a bit less above msrp now - I bagged a bnib BLNR on jubilee for 11.5k today - not quite as good as you, but still 1k less than I could get it a month ago.... perhaps I could have waited longer and got it for less, but I am buying to wear it as I love the watch - not for potential future value... if it loses another 1k in value, so be it...
I think until Rolex & Pateks biggest market Hong Kong gets resolved the market is going to be more skewed toward buyer than seller and hence some softening of prices....Hong Kong is the largest Swiss watch consumer / retailer in world theres 30:AD’s in HK to Londons 15 which is 1/3 bigger....quite remarkable....last year visitor numbers down 43% and sales down 25%.....must be a hellish retail environment with riots outside your door and now coronavirus no doubt many dealers are dealing for cash to keep things going...check out CH24 prices in HK cheapest globally and dragging everything else down....
Good news for those that wear their watches and occasionally like to sell one or two to buy something more expensive.
With houses the only people that benefit from unrealistic price increases are those looking to cash out and move to a smaller property. With watches it seems it’s those who only bought to “invest” or quickly flip.
It will make a pleasant change not having to ponder every few months whether your insurance value needs upgrading.
It’s only when the tide goes out that you see you has been swimming naked....
Likely a combination of reasons driving this, but I can’t help but think the return of all these previously withheld warranty cards will have seen an increase in examples up for sale, and therefore lowering prices.
Yep
One particular patek model I'm following has dropped from 63k asking at the priciest greys to a mere 52k in six months
Against a list price of 38k
The madness was beyond mad
That’s a hell of a stat!Originally Posted by TKH
For a moment I thought this was TRF.
Some Sanity returning to the market at last..there are No bubbles bursting just some deflation which is good for all except the Stupid who paid the crazy prices..
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Nope it is tz-uk. If in doubt check the URL. Hope that helps;)
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Combination of HK impact, coronavirus, January tax returns, post Xmas binge hangover, NY resolution (“I’m done with buying watches” “I’m now a one/two/three watch man and need to consolidate”).
Come March: the above will clear plus Basel World, bonus season, credit cards paid off...
It will be interesting to see the progress in the next 12 months. They wont match retail for a long time yet so still a premium which will still have watches going to flippers rather than customers.
Everything is cyclical I guess and if it gets to a point where it's only a 1k jump to buy from a grey who has it rather than an AD who does not buyers and sellers can be happy; sellers can make a little profit and buyers eont lose out if the want to move a watch on.
There is certainly some degree of correction going on. How long that will last and how close to RRP they will go, that is anyone's guess. Could really go either way.
We need to remember this is always a rubbish time of year to sell watches, even ignoring the macro economic factors.
Give it a few months and bonuses start landing then expect them to start going the other way again imo.
BLNR Batman price tracking:
126710 BLNR:
This is nothing new; bar Daytona’s all 6 digit references have been in a decline since Aug last year, most notably the Batgirl. Inversely the 5 digit references have largely been increasing in value over that time, presumably due to availability in the absence of being able to purchase 6 digit references. This is a very interesting point in time for Rolex and pricing so I'm keeping a close eye on it as it develops. Incidentally I have my name down for quite a few ss sports at various AD's and haven't had a call to purchase a new watch in 3 years. Not something I think about anymore, but in my mind the moment I get a call is the moment the bubble has burst.
@Boss13: would be good to see the graph for Daytona if you have as these are the most in demand of all as sports so should be a fair indicator of the market in general?
I don’t think rolex/patek will ever grow production enough to satisfy demand of the growing middle class of the world. And they won’t because they are trust/ family owned unlike Swatch/Richemont brands who have short term profit targets.
Thierry Stern owner of Patek, from Dec 2018 Hodinkee Interview:
We made this choice many years ago to say, there's a certain percentage of steel watches that Patek Philippe will do. You have to understand that ... the factory that we have is not done to build only steel watches ... Patek Philippe has always been always dealing with every kind of material: platinum, white gold, rose gold, yellow gold. Steel watches also, but it has to stay as a limited amount. So, how can I deal with it? I can't. Sadly, I can't, so I really feel sorry when I hear that, yes, there is a four years, eight years waiting list.
Last edited by ac11111; 2nd February 2020 at 12:18.
116500 White Dial:
Old Model
Last edited by petay993; 2nd February 2020 at 12:19.
The Daytona has always been the exception to to the rule., although i did get my 16518 at a discount many years ago it was sitting in an AD for nearly 2 years..116500 White Dial:
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Probably why we have seen so many Rolex for sale on SC lately. True collectors my arse.
Amazing that Watchfinder is still asking 15k for a 2019 BLNR and 23k for a white ceramic Daytona - but they will prob be the last to drop prices and may be sitting on a lot of inventory...
For BNIB on the 5711 that seems like a great price to offload from a grey, as I was offered only slightly less from a grey for my worn 2016 watch!
The Pepsi is still too high a price for my liking, but I doubt an AD is going to be calling me about picking one up any time soon :(
It's just a matter of time...
They'll be sat on at least 15-20x what they have online for the BLNR/Pepsi/Hulk/Daytona etc
And I heard they were buying in white Daytona’s at around 20k last year....
Maybe some of the people who were sold by WF, etc., on the "you can't lose", "prices are going up up every day" promise have realised they have maybe bought at the top of the market and are trying to get their money back (while they can perhaps?).
Lots of unworn watches on eBay with grey dealer receipts on show. They aren't people trousering a big profit having bought from an AD at list.
But then there's the optimists like the bloke who has listed his 116710LN on eBay this morning starting price £12,900!!
I miss the old days before people were obsessed with purchasing for profit and/or investment, there’s a lot of other nice brands out there folks....
There are some guys on youtube who paid the mad prices and now they are selling all their Rolex and oh Rolex are the devil now and Omega are the real deal lol.
How fickle now that things did not go their way or how they planned.
The interesting thing for me is that price corrections for bubbles is usually very fast Is a crash vs a much longer period of time for the increase (with a steep increase before the crash).
This is usually driven by a lot people trying to sell out of their stock very quickly as they fundamentally know it is over valued.
If prices just drift down then actually the fundamental market is actually pretty strong and it is just economic macros/Hong Kong Demo’s/virus etc that are impacting price in the short term and they will go back up once the economy performs better in Asia.
Time will tell, bubble and a crash, or just macro’s and a short term blip.
That’s the Problem most of the Dickheads that are in watch groups on Facebook and Instagram are using Watchfinder as their guide..I’ve been a collector of some 30 plus years and i wouldn’t touch these Chancers with a barge poll unless you are 110% confident what you are buying and judging by comments left by users most haven’t got a clue and will get stung.
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Think that’s exactly why the bubble analogy (or balloon) is appropriate. Increase starts slowly, attracts speculators selling and people with Fear Of Missing Out buying. Regular increases over a period feed the “can’t lose” and “I need to buy while I can afford” mentality. Then one day, someone says “Hang on, £20,000 for a mass produced steel watch? World’s gone mad! I’m getting out while I can.”
Oh, and there’s the fashion angle. Rolex have become more of a fashion brand and fashions do change.
No idea what will happen but if people stop buying for profit that must have an effect.
Prices will and are coming down. Go offer a batgirl to wf and see. Greys are finding they can’t push the prices anymore and that’s new, for years each month they could test a new ceiling. Patek steel is definitely falling and gold a lot harder, that’s fact. There will be a tipping point when flippers give up and move on, trade prices for these hot pieces aren’t much higher than rrp in a lot of cases, the bid offer spread is just large, which is telling. Once they pull out we change the demand profile.
People thinking prices and sales will pick up soon are kidding themselves in my opinion, I’ve been hearing this since the summer.....
I think your got it just about right .
We need to remember it’s flippers that have caused this market with an ability to obtain new pieces from ADs and then take them to the Grey market instantly make a good profit where the dealers margins remain the same as they have ever been.
The flipper has no staff no shop and no taxes to pay and offers No Warranty where the dealer has all of these to account for...
Watchfinder prices are what they are their advertising budgets are huge with Television adverts every 5 minutes all paid for by the consumer...
Once flippers margins are squeezed they will move onto something New... Handbags etc anything that makes a profit.
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Lots of interesting comments that all underline falling price levels from their high points. Supply was an issue whilst flippers and traders sat on some pieces and waited for to maximise their profit. The market did then seem to be flooded with lots of hard to get pieces at prices that were, frankly too high to sustain and now there’s a drop whilst the market forces balance again.
Buy a watch that you like and wear it, it’s value should be of secondary importance to its story to you.
But what do I know, I buy JLC’s and GO’s!
I think many of us still find it incredible that people will pay 25k for a watch that retails at 10k, but then again someone has been doing it for those prices to exist. I guess if you’re in the city and picking up a 6 figure bonus it’s nothing, or are just very wealthy.
What I find strange is that it seems that a lot of people seem to have forgotten about the credit crunch following 2008 and the general global recession that followed. I got offered discount on a blnr and a hulk as recent as 2014. All it takes is for another restriction on the very cheap and easy borrowing at present and then we’d be right back to those days. No matter how good Rolexes marketing machine is, even they would suffer if people couldn’t afford to buy!
I type this with my 2012 Hulk on my wrist that I paid less than £4000 for with a 20% discount from a UK AD. No vat fraud, no paying with vouchers.
Same watch today...
Just bonkers
When there's a waiting list for a datejust, you just know the world has gone mad.
Another interesting observation. I paid £37200 for my steel AP skeleton. That was Jan 2018 and they were selling by greys at approx 60k then. 60% premium
I was enquiring about a rubber strap for my skeleton the other day and note the list price has risen to £50,000. Just over. Can't remember exact figure. The watch is now sold by greys at a max of 70k which is a 40% premium.
Who knows what the greys were actually selling them for but the asking prices as a percentage of list price is coming down.
Yes when the 126334 was being talked about as an "investment piece" by the Johnny come latelys must've been the peak...
The problem with other brands than Rolex is that noone has the quality of after sales service, save perhaps a few smaller brands, like Lange etc. But sending stuff to Richemont service centers is hit and miss... Swatch group too.
Exactly - and when you see (not a word of a lie) people listing OPs at a premium on eBay!
They're the next to shoot off into the sky. Get em while they're cheap
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