Originally Posted by
M4tt
The idea that the Germans could have invaded in 1940 is silly. It always was.
Just beating the RAF was beyond them. They didn't even come close. The standard myth, repeated endlessly after the Official History, set in stone after 'The Narrow Margin' and popularised in a certain 1969 blockbuster is bunk that doesn't stand up to historical analysis. The fundamental variable dictating loss rates was the weather, not tactics (apart from the tactical insanity of the Big Wing).
Fighter command was in rude health and the changes in production and training driven forward by Freeman and Portal, that others took credit for, meant that production and pilot training were way ahead of losses and far outstripped German production. The Germans didn't have a Cranwell and they were operating without any serious tactical reserve - they started off with a small body of well blooded experienced pilots who cut their teeth in Spain and put them in the front line with rapidly predictable results. They didn't rotate and they were not geared up for a slog.
Germany, on the other hand, were using exactly the wrong aircraft for the job - they were using twin engined tactical bombers in a strategic bombing role and the only decent fighter they had was a cramped short ranged point defence interceptor in an escort fighter role. The ME110 was a fine bomber destroyer but was a liability against day fighters.
Even if that wasn't the case, the fundamental fact, repeatedly learned throughout the war, was that unescorted bombers always get cut to pieces when fighting in daylight and can't hit strategic, let alone tactical, targets much smaller than a city at night. London was easily defined and within range of radio direction aids. Very few other places were. Post war analysis demonstrated that the Luftwaffe was no more accurate than the Butt report showed the RAF were some years later.
Even if fighter command had been beaten, which wouldn't have happened, and an invasion had started, the collection of Dutch barges arrayed for an attack were unsuitable, unstable and would have had to run the gauntlet of the navy and a coastline reinforced since The Armada and bristling with forts and cannon. The German army were comically overstretched, their armour in need of overhaul and their supply lines impossibly long. Sure, Hitler bluffed, but he was counting on a negotiated peace.
And, of course, radar and the worlds first fully integrated real time air defence system, which, at the time no one had even thought about ways to spoof. The tool that allowed the RAF to intercept could also be used to attack any invasion when the sky was clear of enemy aircraft - you only have superiority or supremacy when you can contest the sky and 24 hour patrols would have been impossible.
In short, I don't care how smart the algorithm was, the same rule applies: GIGO.
Hell, just go to Woodley to see the front line fighter designed by Miles (M20) to replace the Hurricane and Spitfire should it have all gone badly wrong and the Germans even begin to get the upper hand. It was, like the Mossie, wooden and designed to be mostly made by furniture shops. However, it never got off the ground because the RAF was never put under any significant strain.
In 1938 or 39, before there were enough Spitfires, sure, but a few weeks or months of mixed weather. No.
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