Pricing is strong. But, some (more than) anecdotal evidence from Federico that the most popular brands are now 15% of their peak in the US.
Skip to 2 mins 50 secs
https://youtu.be/TZtJqgxb7cc
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Pricing is strong. But, some (more than) anecdotal evidence from Federico that the most popular brands are now 15% of their peak in the US.
Skip to 2 mins 50 secs
https://youtu.be/TZtJqgxb7cc
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Who is Federico ??Originally Posted by noTAGlove
Who cares and who spends time listening to such stiff!
Last edited by RAJEN; 18th October 2019 at 22:20.
>> Originally Posted by reggie747
>> Who is Federico?
I've been following Federico and John P from the beginning. They got themselves a top accredited watch repairer and started selling second hand watches at fair prices. At one point I was going to post on TZ-UK about an IWC Mk XII with a JLC mov they had for $3K but I couldn't be bothered...too much trouble. Anyway, from five thousand dollars to 4 million in two years... they must know something worth listening to.
Delray Watch yearly sales rocket towards $4 million within two years
https://usa.watchpro.com/delray-watc...ide-two-years/
Last edited by abraxas; 6th November 2019 at 12:28.
We might need to wait a little longer, but I see one final ridiculous price spike then panic selling.
Watchfinder have 1100+ Rolex ranging from £2k to £200k. So ball-park average valuation of £10k per watch? = £11 million
When it blows, it'll be messy.
Might wait to get my TT Daytona then. Any idea how long before it all happens? I just want to be ready to snap up a few bargains when the panic selling starts.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
1,100 is only about 20% more than the number of Rolex they have typically listed over the past 5 years.
About 650 of the 1,100 are Datejusts.
"......can you hear the drums Federico, I remember long ago another starry night like this ......."
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
"......can you hear the drums Federico, I remember long ago another starry night like this ......."
Pearls before swine
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
It’s an ABBA song, I think.
Who overpays for a Tudor! In all seriousness, I could not believe the difference on the RRP of a Nautilus and the current secondary market prices currently. For a watch that is supposedly the hottest must have on the planet, there is no shortage of them with the usual secondary dealers and it should probably read the hottest watch on the planet for flippers and the same could probably be said for most of the in demand watches, the demand is there for passing on at profit.
We always hear that the market dictates the secondary prices but if all these in demand watches are just sitting in secondary dealers or Chrono24 windows waiting for some MUG to come along, is the demand really there or is a lot of this in demand talk all smoke and mirrors from people who want to keep the market artificially inflated.
There are many very wealthy individuals for whom there is little difference paying 7 or 15k for a Pepsi, or paying 25 or 50k for a 5711. This group is larger than we know, and are likely driving majority of demand
No normal person in their right mind should be paying 2x RRP for a watch, plenty more important things to blow the cash on
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
You are correct in your observations with a number of wealthy groups who do not care in paying over the odds but I do not believe that is driving the market, if that was the case currently you would not be able to pick up any in demand watch from the Secondary market never mind an AD. If as I said, these supposedly Hot watches as the Secondary market likes to peddle out that phrase, then why are they all readily available in every Secondary dealer in any major city in the World.
Prices are coming down within certain Secondary dealers who are seeing their stock not moving at the inflated prices but just as many are holding firm and I would suggest that Watchfinder are currently trying to keep the prices artificially inflated.
I remember trying on the hulk about 3 years ago at an AD and not fancying it at RRP so certainly wouldn't consider it at those crazy prices.
Why overpay for any of them? Why not just put your name down and wait? If you dont like waiting just buy something else thats available.
Never that simple. You can’t even get on waiting lists for most hot models unless you commit to buying less desirable stuff
You see a few individuals on sales corner selling almost new watches, days old really, for hundreds or thousands off list. They bought those models to raise their profile with an AD
Normal people don’t bother with that, they move on or buy at grey prices
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Really ?
Is yours the voice of experience or repeating hearsay ?
Been on the waiting list and bought some of the alleged more desirable Rolex models ( which I still own all of them ) , not once have I been asked to buy something I’m not interested in , be it watches or jewellery.
I’d politely suggest you’re repeating something you didn’t experience yourself.
Sorry but I am speaking from experience
Where do you live?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Washington.
this absolutely the case by me as well, just outside of London.
I agree not straight forward go on the waiting as easy as suggested
Sent from my SM-A530F using Tapatalk
Yeah if you look at the prices at the greys they are dipping as well. Its because there is less demand now. Rolex know how to sort that of course.....
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
Rolex need to flood the SS market now and clear the greys out
Hope there’s carnage & panic selling. I’ve got my hoover / war-chest ready
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I wouldn’t overpay now or ever but not because Fredrico told me.
For people who are holding their pee, waiting for bubble to burst- this thread from TRF FROM 2016 should be illustrative:
Plenty there saying it will be available at list price in a year
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=485169
Not sure reading that Rolex post they stating will a available at list cannot wait will buy one of each
Sent from my SM-A530F using Tapatalk
Whilst it's much derided and has some serious flaws, at least eBay (in its auction form) gives a true indication of what watches are actually fetching, rather than what sellers price them at (although it is very rare to see top flight pieces offered up for auction).
Sent through the ether by diddling with radio waves
Not sure it's obvious what is actually paid. More often than not, it just says "Best offer accepted" - which gives no clue - or a listing shows as 'completed' (despite searching for 'sold' items) but is then relisted. I don't think eBay want to burst the bubble any more than sellers do!
I just searched on "sold" "126710 Rolex" and there were 15 listings of which 1 (an unworn 126710BLNR from someone with feedback of +2 and no feedback of any kind in the last 12 months) was shown as sold to a bid of £13,350 in July. No feedback from buyer or seller for that supposed sale.
If you use a website like watchcount.com then you can see the actual sold prices at least for some listings. To use a similar example, a 2017 BLNR was supposedly sold for £13k on the completed Ebay listings page but however via watchcount.com the selling price appears to be £12.2k. I usually use that to get an idea of what price items were actually sold for on a BIN or Best Offer listing. Also useful to estimate what sort of offer any given seller might accept on an item!
I've seen a softening on prices in the last month or so. Particularly with patek / ap and a few of the Rolex models, notably the blue sky dweller and gold Daytonas, but prior to the dip they were almost artificially high.
I think rolex at the minute are pretty stable but in all honesty the fluctuating stuff was bonkers at its peak.
I’ve just sold a stickered up 2018 batman with Uk paperwork for £12250 and a white dial skydweller stickers and paperwork for £12400....I was very happy with those prices..
The Patek and AP prices in the secondary market are just not sustainable and have just come across one dealer who has dropped £20k off their original asking price on the Patek gold Chrono Nautilus.
eBays stupidly high fees mean selling expensive watches on there is just stupid, hence the lack of examples.
If prices start to soften it just proves that Rolex haven't really altered the number of watches made, its just been a hugely inflated price bubble... It cant burst soon enough imho. I was in Japan recently and the number of BNIB steel watches sitting pretty in cabinets was astounding, and Im sure its the same all over the world.
eBay a lot of private listings not business get offers pay a £1 fee for selling on 5 items.
I know of a listing recently he said will put £15k buy it now and you collect in person but watch was being purchasing at £9500 collection was a 1675 as he said won't matter it's £1 selling fee
Sent from my SM-A530F using Tapatalk
eBay a lot of private listings not business get offers pay a £1 fee for selling on 5 items.
I know of a listing recently he said will put £15k buy it now and you collect in person but watch was being purchasing at £9500 collection was a 1675 as he said won't matter it's £1 selling fee
Sent from my SM-A530F using Tapatalk
Then there's the mandatory Paypal fees...
I would like to see a situation where anyone can get any model within a reasonable time frame (6-12 months) or pay a small premium on the grey market (say 15%) for popular models.
I don’t think 6-12 months is a reasonable amount of time to wait for a watch , more like up to 3 months maximum.
I’ve said it before , raise the rrp to something more like the grey market price , give the supply chain extra margin rather than the margin leaving the official dealers.
Customer gets a watch quicker and pays a realistic price , Rolex dealers gain extra margin , and increase customer satisfaction by being able to supply quicker without the subterfuge over waiting lists , that leaves the loser in all this would be the grey market dealers , not many of us would lose much sleep over that scenario.
I agree your approach would be best in terms of combatting the grey market and the huge margins being made at present. Each buyer is different and for me:
-waiting for a watch to come in can be quite an exciting experience. The situation isn’t as simple now, with waiting lists closed, 5 year waits and people expected to buy watches they don’t like.
-a 6-12 month wait would probably help with value retention. Once I bought my first Rolex I became a little bit addicted. I like the fact that I can add more (with the intention of keeping forever) with the security that they will retain value should life take a bad turn financially.
I have been looking at what the current price of a Hulk would cost me and was surprised to find some near the £11k price bracket on Watchmaster considering I thought these had reached 14k -15k (albeit Watchfinder prices).
A quick look on Chrono and values are around 11k but the site was awash with Hulks. I get the feeling prices could easily drop back soon.
Well not quite, they start at £12k in the Uk and there is 60 odd listed but we know they won’t all be readily available. Most buyers won’t fancy an international deal or the additional vat. I’d like to pick one up and don’t seem them dropping anytime soon unfortunately.
Saw this today...2019 BLNR....box papers so assume overseas AD supplied ( UK dealers keep warranty cards for a year?).
Only a damn fool would pay this price. Some buyers simply lack patience and their money burns a big hole in their Ralph Lauren chinos....
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Prices are coming down lately on few of premium models the new batman is dropping which is driving prices down a tad on the old versionSaw this today...2019 BLNR....box papers so assume overseas AD supplied ( UK dealers keep warranty cards for a year?).
Only a damn fool would pay this price. Some buyers simply lack patience and their money burns a big hole in their Ralph Lauren chinos....
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-A530F using Tapatalk
But those of us who bought them at rrp and have kept them will be least affected regardless of a 15% drop in grey prices.
Long long way to go for the RRP payer's.
Sent from my CLT-L09 using Tapatalk
Too far , they’ll never fall back that much imho.
Grey market would trade at a loss for an unsustainable period if that was the case.
I recently visited a few dealers and they were mentioning prices have come down in general and as much as 15% on some models. As the saying goes....... "what goes up must come down"
This was in particular with rolex and PP. They never really mentioned AP.
A price correction is a far better proposition than a price crash.
Sent from my CLT-L09 using Tapatalk
Prices been falling last few months not just on them the new one is dropping seen some new unworn for Under £13k on Ebay which must have an effect of the older version
Sent from my SM-A530F using Tapatalk
Hopefully they keep dropping so I can get a nice new watch to wearwishful thinking
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I don't see how prices could crash when there is a sleeping section of the market waiting to start buying again as soon as prices come down a little.
An excellent point. I would also add that, in the UK at least due to currency and economic turbulance, a Rolex might well be seen as a stable commodity in the not too distant future.
This. They wouldn’t need to fall much before even more demand was the result.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
