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Thread: I Wouldn’t Overpay for Patek/Tudor/Omega/Rolex at the Moment

  1. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper85 View Post
    I have been looking at what the current price of a Hulk would cost me and was surprised to find some near the £11k price bracket on Watchmaster considering I thought these had reached 14k -15k (albeit Watchfinder prices).

    A quick look on Chrono and values are around 11k but the site was awash with Hulks. I get the feeling prices could easily drop back soon.
    Well not quite, they start at £12k in the Uk and there is 60 odd listed but we know they won’t all be readily available. Most buyers won’t fancy an international deal or the additional vat. I’d like to pick one up and don’t seem them dropping anytime soon unfortunately.

  2. #52
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    I remember trying on the hulk about 3 years ago at an AD and not fancying it at RRP so certainly wouldn't consider it at those crazy prices.

  3. #53
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    I Wouldn’t Overpay for Patek/Tudor/Omega/Rolex at the Moment

    Saw this today...2019 BLNR....box papers so assume overseas AD supplied ( UK dealers keep warranty cards for a year?).
    Only a damn fool would pay this price. Some buyers simply lack patience and their money burns a big hole in their Ralph Lauren chinos....



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  4. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrDunc View Post
    Saw this today...2019 BLNR....box papers so assume overseas AD supplied ( UK dealers keep warranty cards for a year?).
    Only a damn fool would pay this price. Some buyers simply lack patience and their money burns a big hole in their Ralph Lauren chinos....



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    Prices are coming down lately on few of premium models the new batman is dropping which is driving prices down a tad on the old version

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  5. #55
    Grand Master abraxas's Avatar
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    >> Originally Posted by reggie747
    >> Who is Federico?

    Quote Originally Posted by RAJEN View Post
    Who cares and who spends time listening to such stiff!
    I've been following Federico and John P from the beginning. They got themselves a top accredited watch repairer and started selling second hand watches at fair prices. At one point I was going to post on TZ-UK about an IWC Mk XII with a JLC mov they had for $3K but I couldn't be bothered...too much trouble. Anyway, from five thousand dollars to 4 million in two years... they must know something worth listening to.

    Delray Watch yearly sales rocket towards $4 million within two years
    https://usa.watchpro.com/delray-watc...ide-two-years/
    Last edited by abraxas; 6th November 2019 at 12:28.

  6. #56
    Journeyman Chiefs's Avatar
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    We might need to wait a little longer, but I see one final ridiculous price spike then panic selling.
    Watchfinder have 1100+ Rolex ranging from £2k to £200k. So ball-park average valuation of £10k per watch? = £11 million
    When it blows, it'll be messy.

  7. #57
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    I recently visited a few dealers and they were mentioning prices have come down in general and as much as 15% on some models. As the saying goes....... "what goes up must come down"

    This was in particular with rolex and PP. They never really mentioned AP.

    A price correction is a far better proposition than a price crash.

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  8. #58
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefs View Post
    We might need to wait a little longer, but I see one final ridiculous price spike then panic selling.
    Watchfinder have 1100+ Rolex ranging from £2k to £200k. So ball-park average valuation of £10k per watch? = £11 million
    When it blows, it'll be messy.
    Might wait to get my TT Daytona then. Any idea how long before it all happens? I just want to be ready to snap up a few bargains when the panic selling starts.
    Courage is being scared to death but saddling up anyway.

  9. #59
    Journeyman Chiefs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    Might wait to get my TT Daytona then. Any idea how long before it all happens? I just want to be ready to snap up a few bargains when the panic selling starts.
    If only we knew

  10. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by bokbok View Post
    Prices are coming down lately on few of premium models the new batman is dropping which is driving prices down a tad on the old version

    Sent from my SM-A530F using Tapatalk


    But those of us who bought them at rrp and have kept them will be least affected regardless of a 15% drop in grey prices.

  11. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster73 View Post
    But those of us who bought them at rrp and have kept them will be least affected regardless of a 15% drop in grey prices.
    Long long way to go for the RRP payer's.

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  12. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefs View Post
    We might need to wait a little longer, but I see one final ridiculous price spike then panic selling.
    Watchfinder have 1100+ Rolex ranging from £2k to £200k. So ball-park average valuation of £10k per watch? = £11 million
    When it blows, it'll be messy.
    1,100 is only about 20% more than the number of Rolex they have typically listed over the past 5 years.

    About 650 of the 1,100 are Datejusts.

  13. #63
    Journeyman Chiefs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gbn13 View Post
    1,100 is only about 20% more than the number of Rolex they have typically listed over the past 5 years.

    About 650 of the 1,100 are Datejusts.
    20% more stock, but l'm guessing the total value is considerably higher.

    Either way, it's a pricey volume of assets.

  14. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    Might wait to get my TT Daytona then. Any idea how long before it all happens? I just want to be ready to snap up a few bargains when the panic selling starts.
    Any time. We see a lot of ‘experts’ predicting this:-)

  15. #65
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefs View Post
    We might need to wait a little longer, but I see one final ridiculous price spike then panic selling.
    Watchfinder have 1100+ Rolex ranging from £2k to £200k. So ball-park average valuation of £10k per watch? = £11 million
    When it blows, it'll be messy.
    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    Might wait to get my TT Daytona then. Any idea how long before it all happens? I just want to be ready to snap up a few bargains when the panic selling starts.
    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefs View Post
    If only we knew
    I thought you did........


    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefs View Post
    We might need to wait a little longer, but I see one final ridiculous price spike then panic selling........
    Courage is being scared to death but saddling up anyway.

  16. #66
    A local independent dealer has just listed a uk supplied lnib batman at 11700 or so
    A bit cheaper than 6 months ago?
    I think so

  17. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by GOAT View Post
    A local independent dealer has just listed a uk supplied lnib batman at 11700 or so
    A bit cheaper than 6 months ago?
    I think so
    An even localler dealer listed one on SC for £100 less

  18. #68
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    Prices been falling last few months not just on them the new one is dropping seen some new unworn for Under £13k on Ebay which must have an effect of the older version

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  19. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by JPCain86 View Post
    An even localler dealer listed one on SC for £100 less
    Not uk supplied

  20. #70
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    Hopefully they keep dropping so I can get a nice new watch to wear wishful thinking


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  21. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by reggie747 View Post
    Who is Federico ??
    It’s an ABBA song, I think.

  22. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by GOAT View Post
    Not uk supplied
    Aren’t they all produced at the same place in Switzerland. Why the place where the watch was sold matters?

  23. #73
    Yes I agree ,but some may suggest that without being sold here with duty paid and proven it may cause difficulties down the line, when travelling perhaps?
    I hasten to add that I’m certainly no expert (and may well be wrong )but for me ,a less than 1% premium for a uk supplied watch with a years warranty is a no brainer.
    Ps not looking to scupper anyone’s sale- the fundraiser is on for a very hefty contribution if the Sc one sells so it’s all good.

  24. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by Buster73 View Post
    You’ve forgotten the obvious mistake , Washington in the back water that is the North East England is clearly well known for an abundance of Rolex dealers struggling for the poor local people to buy their products , in fact so desperate that they’ll sell all their Steel Sport watch models to anyone who walks through the door.
    There are three Rolex dealers in the Tyne and Wear area.

    But you can only join an expression of interest in one of them, because they are all called Goldsmiths!

  25. #75
    I think the natural slowing will take place.You can't keep upping the price you eventually hit a price ceiling.Christmas around the corner will still see favourable prices due to the season/bonuses etc

  26. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by peter2704 View Post
    I think the natural slowing will take place.You can't keep upping the price you eventually hit a price ceiling.Christmas around the corner will still see favourable prices due to the season/bonuses etc
    Perhaps the high prices are waking up other market segments who so far didn’t dabble in Rolex?


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  27. #77
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    I just located this "mint condition" Batman at Luxury of Watches in Los Angeles for $11,995.00 (£9,333.00). They maintain an A+ rating with the Better Business Bureau ("BBB"), which is the Gold Standard here in the States.

    https://www.luxuryofwatches.com/role...iABEgIHwvD_BwE



  28. #78
    No papers though and 18k for the one that's a full set.
    It's just a matter of time...

  29. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDSWATCH View Post
    There are three Rolex dealers in the Tyne and Wear area.

    But you can only join an expression of interest in one of them, because they are all called Goldsmiths!


    Then get the phone call a few months later if you have history with them ?.

  30. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by Merkaholic View Post
    Long long way to go for the RRP payer's.

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    Too far , they’ll never fall back that much imho.

    Grey market would trade at a loss for an unsustainable period if that was the case.

  31. #81
    Grand Master Der Amf's Avatar
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    I don't see how prices could crash when there is a sleeping section of the market waiting to start buying again as soon as prices come down a little.

  32. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by Der Amf View Post
    I don't see how prices could crash when there is a sleeping section of the market waiting to start buying again as soon as prices come down a little.
    An excellent point. I would also add that, in the UK at least due to currency and economic turbulance, a Rolex might well be seen as a stable commodity in the not too distant future.

  33. #83
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omegamanic View Post
    No papers though and 18k for the one that's a full set.
    Dunno, the listing reads:


    Condition: Mint Like New

    Includes: Box, Manual and Rolex Chronometer Tag


    The one for $18k is Brand New.


  34. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster73 View Post
    Too far , they’ll never fall back that much imho.

    Grey market would trade at a loss for an unsustainable period if that was the case.
    Which is pretty unlikely.
    When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........

  35. #85
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Der Amf View Post
    I don't see how prices could crash when there is a sleeping section of the market waiting to start buying again as soon as prices come down a little.
    This. They wouldn’t need to fall much before even more demand was the result.
    Courage is being scared to death but saddling up anyway.

  36. #86
    It’s coming up for Christmas people always spend on other things this time of year. I think prices will drop off, but not that much. Neither the likes of Rolex or Patek need to up production to sell their watches, they are both very financially stable and in the case of Rolex could sell nothing for 50 years and still cover all their current costs. So thinking this is going to change it’s not. Watches are now seen globally as the must have fashion item and unless that changes, things with prices may fluctuate a little, bit not significantly.

  37. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    I just located this "mint condition" Batman at Luxury of Watches in Los Angeles for $11,995.00 (£9,333.00). They maintain an A+ rating with the Better Business Bureau ("BBB"), which is the Gold Standard here in the States.

    https://www.luxuryofwatches.com/role...iABEgIHwvD_BwE



    I think that one's super cheap because it's not an official Rolex bezel, says custom on the listing. They have a proper 116710 BLNR and that's 17 or 18k.

  38. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by haberdashery View Post
    I think that one's super cheap because it's not an official Rolex bezel, says custom on the listing. They have a proper 116710 BLNR and that's 17 or 18k.
    Very important point of course if that’s correct.

    Plus it’s nearly another £2k to get it to the Uk with vat and post etc.

  39. #89
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    Rolex have been undervalued for years and now they have been brought to the level where they should be. Prices may now be sticky and a slight readjustment may or may not occur but if you waiting for prices to drop a few grand, it ain't going to happen. Most people will just sit on them for a few years if necessary and wait for the next upward climb. Those that already got them will hang onto them and those without are either going to have to stump up or go without.

    What is the point of selling a Rolex and putting the money in the bank just to earn 1% pa. The best way to make money over the long term is to buy property, equities, fine art such as Rolex / PP.

  40. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    Rolex have been undervalued for years and now they have been brought to the level where they should be. Prices may now be sticky and a slight readjustment may or may not occur but if you waiting for prices to drop a few grand, it ain't going to happen. Most people will just sit on them for a few years if necessary and wait for the next upward climb. Those that already got them will hang onto them and those without are either going to have to stump up or go without.

    What is the point of selling a Rolex and putting the money in the bank just to earn 1% pa. The best way to make money over the long term is to buy property, equities, fine art such as Rolex / PP.
    That's true for most of us - but the market is also fuelled by speculators, who will put their names on a list and self for a few hundred, never mind thousands in profit.
    It's just a matter of time...

  41. #91
    Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Der Amf View Post
    I don't see how prices could crash when there is a sleeping section of the market waiting to start buying again as soon as prices come down a little.
    Very good point but will the money still be there if prices fall due to recession? Will they choose to buy toys for those prices? Some maybe, definitely not all. Depends why prices fall (and if).

  42. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omegamanic View Post
    That's true for most of us - but the market is also fuelled by speculators, who will put their names on a list and self for a few hundred, never mind thousands in profit.
    Exactly
    Carpet baggers will bail out at the first tangible downturn.

  43. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    the most popular brands are now 15% of their peak in the US.
    You mean 15% off their peak not 15% of their peak. (That would be 85% off.)

    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefs View Post
    When it blows, it'll be messy.
    Bubbles don't usually burst slowly.
    Quote Originally Posted by Der Amf View Post
    I don't see how prices could crash when there is a sleeping section of the market waiting to start buying again as soon as prices come down a little.
    When prices start to fall people don't buy, they wait to buy cheaper.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    Rolex have been undervalued for years and now they have been brought to the level where they should be. Prices may now be sticky and a slight readjustment may or may not occur but if you waiting for prices to drop a few grand, it ain't going to happen. Most people will just sit on them for a few years if necessary and wait for the next upward climb. Those that already got them will hang onto them and those without are either going to have to stump up or go without.

    What is the point of selling a Rolex and putting the money in the bank just to earn 1% pa. The best way to make money over the long term is to buy property, equities, fine art such as Rolex / PP.
    "Rolex have been undervalued for years". Depends what you mean by "value". They make nearly a million watches a year. At a cost of, what? Not more than a thousand pounds each.

    "The best way to make money over the long term is to buy property, equities, fine art such as Rolex / PP."

    Property, maybe. People need to live somewhere? But Veblen products? The Emperors's new clothes.

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