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Thread: I Wouldn’t Overpay for Patek/Tudor/Omega/Rolex at the Moment

  1. #1

    I Wouldn’t Overpay for Patek/Tudor/Omega/Rolex at the Moment

    Pricing is strong. But, some (more than) anecdotal evidence from Federico that the most popular brands are now 15% of their peak in the US.

    Skip to 2 mins 50 secs

    https://youtu.be/TZtJqgxb7cc



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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Pricing is strong. But, some (more than) anecdotal evidence from Federico that the most popular brands are now 15% of their peak in the US.

    Skip to 2 mins 50 secs

    https://youtu.be/TZtJqgxb7cc
    Who is Federico ??

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    Overpay.

    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Pricing is strong. But, some (more than) anecdotal evidence from Federico that the most popular brands are now 15% of their peak in the US.

    Skip to 2 mins 50 secs

    https://youtu.be/TZtJqgxb7cc



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    Who overpays for a Tudor! In all seriousness, I could not believe the difference on the RRP of a Nautilus and the current secondary market prices currently. For a watch that is supposedly the hottest must have on the planet, there is no shortage of them with the usual secondary dealers and it should probably read the hottest watch on the planet for flippers and the same could probably be said for most of the in demand watches, the demand is there for passing on at profit.

    We always hear that the market dictates the secondary prices but if all these in demand watches are just sitting in secondary dealers or Chrono24 windows waiting for some MUG to come along, is the demand really there or is a lot of this in demand talk all smoke and mirrors from people who want to keep the market artificially inflated.

  4. #4
    Why overpay for any of them? Why not just put your name down and wait? If you dont like waiting just buy something else thats available.

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    Yeah if you look at the prices at the greys they are dipping as well. Its because there is less demand now. Rolex know how to sort that of course.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Flasher View Post
    Who overpays for a Tudor! In all seriousness, I could not believe the difference on the RRP of a Nautilus and the current secondary market prices currently. For a watch that is supposedly the hottest must have on the planet, there is no shortage of them with the usual secondary dealers and it should probably read the hottest watch on the planet for flippers and the same could probably be said for most of the in demand watches, the demand is there for passing on at profit.

    We always hear that the market dictates the secondary prices but if all these in demand watches are just sitting in secondary dealers or Chrono24 windows waiting for some MUG to come along, is the demand really there or is a lot of this in demand talk all smoke and mirrors from people who want to keep the market artificially inflated.
    There are many very wealthy individuals for whom there is little difference paying 7 or 15k for a Pepsi, or paying 25 or 50k for a 5711. This group is larger than we know, and are likely driving majority of demand

    No normal person in their right mind should be paying 2x RRP for a watch, plenty more important things to blow the cash on


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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Yeah if you look at the prices at the greys they are dipping as well. Its because there is less demand now. Rolex know how to sort that of course.....

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    Rolex need to flood the SS market now and clear the greys out

    Hope there’s carnage & panic selling. I’ve got my hoover / war-chest ready


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    Quote Originally Posted by robert75 View Post
    Why overpay for any of them? Why not just put your name down and wait? If you dont like waiting just buy something else thats available.
    Never that simple. You can’t even get on waiting lists for most hot models unless you commit to buying less desirable stuff

    You see a few individuals on sales corner selling almost new watches, days old really, for hundreds or thousands off list. They bought those models to raise their profile with an AD

    Normal people don’t bother with that, they move on or buy at grey prices


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    Quote Originally Posted by ozzyb123 View Post
    Never that simple. You can’t even get on waiting lists for most hot models unless you commit to buying less desirable stuff




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    Really ?

    Is yours the voice of experience or repeating hearsay ?

    Been on the waiting list and bought some of the alleged more desirable Rolex models ( which I still own all of them ) , not once have I been asked to buy something I’m not interested in , be it watches or jewellery.

    I’d politely suggest you’re repeating something you didn’t experience yourself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster73 View Post
    Really ?

    Is yours the voice of experience or repeating hearsay ?

    Been on the waiting list and bought some of the alleged more desirable Rolex models ( which I still own all of them ) , not once have I been asked to buy something I’m not interested in , be it watches or jewellery.

    I’d politely suggest you’re repeating something you didn’t experience yourself.
    Sorry but I am speaking from experience

    Where do you live?


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    Quote Originally Posted by ozzyb123 View Post
    Sorry but I am speaking from experience

    Where do you live?


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    Washington.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ozzyb123 View Post
    Never that simple. You can’t even get on waiting lists for most hot models unless you commit to buying less desirable stuff

    You see a few individuals on sales corner selling almost new watches, days old really, for hundreds or thousands off list. They bought those models to raise their profile with an AD

    Normal people don’t bother with that, they move on or buy at grey prices


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    this absolutely the case by me as well, just outside of London.

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    Demand

    Quote Originally Posted by ozzyb123 View Post
    There are many very wealthy individuals for whom there is little difference paying 7 or 15k for a Pepsi, or paying 25 or 50k for a 5711. This group is larger than we know, and are likely driving majority of demand

    No normal person in their right mind should be paying 2x RRP for a watch, plenty more important things to blow the cash on


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    You are correct in your observations with a number of wealthy groups who do not care in paying over the odds but I do not believe that is driving the market, if that was the case currently you would not be able to pick up any in demand watch from the Secondary market never mind an AD. If as I said, these supposedly Hot watches as the Secondary market likes to peddle out that phrase, then why are they all readily available in every Secondary dealer in any major city in the World.

    Prices are coming down within certain Secondary dealers who are seeing their stock not moving at the inflated prices but just as many are holding firm and I would suggest that Watchfinder are currently trying to keep the prices artificially inflated.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by reggie747 View Post
    Who is Federico ??
    Who cares and who spends time listening to such stiff!
    Last edited by RAJEN; 18th October 2019 at 22:20.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster73 View Post
    Washington.
    Near Sunderland? State? City?

    You’re being deliberately ambiguous so I’ll assume northeast UK

    I don’t think I need to make further comment about why you’d have an easier time getting on a waitlist in the northeast than London


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    Quote Originally Posted by ozzyb123 View Post
    Never that simple. You can’t even get on waiting lists for most hot models unless you commit to buying less desirable stuff

    You see a few individuals on sales corner selling almost new watches, days old really, for hundreds or thousands off list. They bought those models to raise their profile with an AD

    Normal people don’t bother with that, they move on or buy at grey prices


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    I agree not straight forward go on the waiting as easy as suggested

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    Quote Originally Posted by ozzyb123 View Post

    You’re being deliberately ambiguous so I’ll assume northeast UK

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    It literally says on his profile. If only there was a search engine for maps...perhaps by a company like google you could find exactly where Washington is 🙄

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sean89 View Post
    It literally says on his profile. If only there was a search engine for maps...perhaps by a company like google you could find exactly where Washington is
    Here come the trolls


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    Quote Originally Posted by ozzyb123 View Post
    Here come the trolls


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    Erm yeah okay mate...

  20. #20
    I wouldn't overpay for any luxury item ever, and I'm keeping my 5712 1/A because I like it.

  21. #21
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    If anything sells for in excess of RRP on a regular basis, then it is not overpriced.

    If you don't want to pay the going rate, then don't, but you can be sure that someone else will.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sean89 View Post
    It literally says on his profile. If only there was a search engine for maps...perhaps by a company like google you could find exactly where Washington is 



    You’ve forgotten the obvious mistake , Washington in the back water that is the North East England is clearly well known for an abundance of Rolex dealers struggling for the poor local people to buy their products , in fact so desperate that they’ll sell all their Steel Sport watch models to anyone who walks through the door.

  23. #23
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    Prices are definitely softening for most hot models, numbers being offered for sale at places like chrono24 have been increasing consistently for a while (1,083 BLNR's for sale currently on chrono24). There are also now reports coming out of greys dropping their purchase prices significantly or refusing to purchase hot models due to already sitting on vast inventories. Just sitting tight admiring the view here.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    If anything sells for in excess of RRP on a regular basis, then it is not overpriced.
    Not overpriced today - but maybe tomorrow or next week! Either the watches are underpriced or there’s a bubble that will pop. Those that are happy with the possibility of the latter can fill their boots. It’s not a risk I personally would take.

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by reggie747 View Post
    Who is Federico ??
    "......can you hear the drums Federico, I remember long ago another starry night like this ......."

    Courage is being scared to death but saddling up anyway.

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    Quote Originally Posted by David_D View Post
    Not overpriced today - but maybe tomorrow or next week! Either the watches are underpriced or there’s a bubble that will pop. Those that are happy with the possibility of the latter can fill their boots. It’s not a risk I personally would take.
    Thing is, none of us knows which way it will go. However, what we do know is that Rolex have very successfully enhanced their brand image and now they are going to sit on it.

    If you do the right thing and buy a Rolex without the intention of ever selling it, the temporary blips in value are irrelevant.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    If you do the right thing and buy a Rolex without the intention of ever selling it, the temporary blips in value are irrelevant.
    I agree mostly - if you buy a Rolex at or around retail that the short / medium term blips are (or should be) irrelevant

    I can’t wait for the day when people stop seeing watches as an investment, so people who actually like (and wear!) them can get access


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  28. #28
    I wouldn’t overpay now or ever but not because Fredrico told me.

    For people who are holding their pee, waiting for bubble to burst- this thread from TRF FROM 2016 should be illustrative:
    Plenty there saying it will be available at list price in a year

    https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=485169

  29. #29
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    Not sure reading that Rolex post they stating will a available at list cannot wait will buy one of each

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    If you do the right thing and buy a Rolex without the intention of ever selling it, the temporary blips in value are irrelevant.
    True but, for me £14k+ is, in any event, more than I am prepared to pay for a mass produced steel watch and, cards on the table, I begrudge giving someone a £7k profit on a watch they bought yesterday!

  31. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    "......can you hear the drums Federico, I remember long ago another starry night like this ......."


    Pearls before swine

    Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
    Friedrich Nietzsche


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    Blowers

    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Prices are definitely softening for most hot models, numbers being offered for sale at places like chrono24 have been increasing consistently for a while (1,083 BLNR's for sale currently on chrono24). There are also now reports coming out of greys dropping their purchase prices significantly or refusing to purchase hot models due to already sitting on vast inventories. Just sitting tight admiring the view here.


    Blowers today were doing a number of Special offers across the board, dropping their asking prices in some cases by £2.5k on a Sky dweller and I think about a £1k on BLNR.

    Still inflated prices but maybe a further sign that all is not going as well in the Secondary market with their inflated price stock not flying off the shelves the way it was maybe 6-12 months ago.
    Last edited by Flasher; 19th October 2019 at 21:17. Reason: Mistakes

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    Quote Originally Posted by Flasher View Post
    Blowers today were doing a number of Special offers across the board, dropping their asking prices in some cases by £2.5k on a Sky dweller and I think about a £1k on BLNR.

    Still inflated prices but maybe a further sign that all is not going as well in the Secondary market with their inflated price stock is not flying of the shelves the way it was maybe 6-12 months ago.
    It's happening

  34. #34
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    Whilst it's much derided and has some serious flaws, at least eBay (in its auction form) gives a true indication of what watches are actually fetching, rather than what sellers price them at (although it is very rare to see top flight pieces offered up for auction).

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    I would like to see a situation where anyone can get any model within a reasonable time frame (6-12 months) or pay a small premium on the grey market (say 15%) for popular models.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ozzyb123 View Post
    I can’t wait for the day when people stop seeing watches as an investment, so people who actually like (and wear!) them can get access
    You could easily replace the word watches with art, wine, whiskey or a host of other luxury items, or even non luxury items such as property.

    Take the apartment blocks that are built, bought outright by an investment firm or very wealthy person and left to sit vacant for 5 years to appreciate in value. In a city where property is in short supply, the people who need it can't get it.

    It's the way of the world, anything with a good percentage return over time will be invested in and those who really want/need/appreciate it will have to go without.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sish101 View Post
    Whilst it's much derided and has some serious flaws, at least eBay (in its auction form) gives a true indication of what watches are actually fetching, rather than what sellers price them at (although it is very rare to see top flight pieces offered up for auction).
    Not sure it's obvious what is actually paid. More often than not, it just says "Best offer accepted" - which gives no clue - or a listing shows as 'completed' (despite searching for 'sold' items) but is then relisted. I don't think eBay want to burst the bubble any more than sellers do!

    I just searched on "sold" "126710 Rolex" and there were 15 listings of which 1 (an unworn 126710BLNR from someone with feedback of +2 and no feedback of any kind in the last 12 months) was shown as sold to a bid of £13,350 in July. No feedback from buyer or seller for that supposed sale.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thestore View Post
    I would like to see a situation where anyone can get any model within a reasonable time frame (6-12 months) or pay a small premium on the grey market (say 15%) for popular models.
    I don’t think 6-12 months is a reasonable amount of time to wait for a watch , more like up to 3 months maximum.

    I’ve said it before , raise the rrp to something more like the grey market price , give the supply chain extra margin rather than the margin leaving the official dealers.

    Customer gets a watch quicker and pays a realistic price , Rolex dealers gain extra margin , and increase customer satisfaction by being able to supply quicker without the subterfuge over waiting lists , that leaves the loser in all this would be the grey market dealers , not many of us would lose much sleep over that scenario.

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    Quote Originally Posted by David_D View Post
    Not sure it's obvious what is actually paid. More often than not, it just says "Best offer accepted" - which gives no clue - or a listing shows as 'completed' (despite searching for 'sold' items) but is then relisted. I don't think eBay want to burst the bubble any more than sellers do!

    I just searched on "sold" "126710 Rolex" and there were 15 listings of which 1 (an unworn 126710BLNR from someone with feedback of +2 and no feedback of any kind in the last 12 months) was shown as sold to a bid of £13,350 in July. No feedback from buyer or seller for that supposed sale.
    If you use a website like watchcount.com then you can see the actual sold prices at least for some listings. To use a similar example, a 2017 BLNR was supposedly sold for £13k on the completed Ebay listings page but however via watchcount.com the selling price appears to be £12.2k. I usually use that to get an idea of what price items were actually sold for on a BIN or Best Offer listing. Also useful to estimate what sort of offer any given seller might accept on an item!

  40. #40
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    I've seen a softening on prices in the last month or so. Particularly with patek / ap and a few of the Rolex models, notably the blue sky dweller and gold Daytonas, but prior to the dip they were almost artificially high.
    I think rolex at the minute are pretty stable but in all honesty the fluctuating stuff was bonkers at its peak.

  41. #41
    I’ve just sold a stickered up 2018 batman with Uk paperwork for £12250 and a white dial skydweller stickers and paperwork for £12400....I was very happy with those prices..

  42. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by David_D View Post
    Not sure it's obvious what is actually paid. More often than not, it just says "Best offer accepted" - which gives no clue - or a listing shows as 'completed' (despite searching for 'sold' items) but is then relisted. I don't think eBay want to burst the bubble any more than sellers do!

    I just searched on "sold" "126710 Rolex" and there were 15 listings of which 1 (an unworn 126710BLNR from someone with feedback of +2 and no feedback of any kind in the last 12 months) was shown as sold to a bid of £13,350 in July. No feedback from buyer or seller for that supposed sale.

    eBays stupidly high fees mean selling expensive watches on there is just stupid, hence the lack of examples.


    If prices start to soften it just proves that Rolex haven't really altered the number of watches made, its just been a hugely inflated price bubble... It cant burst soon enough imho. I was in Japan recently and the number of BNIB steel watches sitting pretty in cabinets was astounding, and Im sure its the same all over the world.

  43. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by 744ER View Post
    eBays stupidly high fees mean selling expensive watches on there is just stupid, hence the lack of examples.


    If prices start to soften it just proves that Rolex haven't really altered the number of watches made, its just been a hugely inflated price bubble... It cant burst soon enough imho. I was in Japan recently and the number of BNIB steel watches sitting pretty in cabinets was astounding, and Im sure its the same all over the world.
    eBay a lot of private listings not business get offers pay a £1 fee for selling on 5 items.

    I know of a listing recently he said will put £15k buy it now and you collect in person but watch was being purchasing at £9500 collection was a 1675 as he said won't matter it's £1 selling fee






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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster73 View Post
    I don’t think 6-12 months is a reasonable amount of time to wait for a watch , more like up to 3 months maximum.

    I’ve said it before , raise the rrp to something more like the grey market price , give the supply chain extra margin rather than the margin leaving the official dealers.

    Customer gets a watch quicker and pays a realistic price , Rolex dealers gain extra margin , and increase customer satisfaction by being able to supply quicker without the subterfuge over waiting lists , that leaves the loser in all this would be the grey market dealers , not many of us would lose much sleep over that scenario.
    I agree your approach would be best in terms of combatting the grey market and the huge margins being made at present. Each buyer is different and for me:

    -waiting for a watch to come in can be quite an exciting experience. The situation isn’t as simple now, with waiting lists closed, 5 year waits and people expected to buy watches they don’t like.

    -a 6-12 month wait would probably help with value retention. Once I bought my first Rolex I became a little bit addicted. I like the fact that I can add more (with the intention of keeping forever) with the security that they will retain value should life take a bad turn financially.

  45. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by bokbok View Post
    eBay a lot of private listings not business get offers pay a £1 fee for selling on 5 items.

    I know of a listing recently he said will put £15k buy it now and you collect in person but watch was being purchasing at £9500 collection was a 1675 as he said won't matter it's £1 selling fee






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    Then there's the mandatory Paypal fees...

  46. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by 744ER View Post
    Then there's the mandatory Paypal fees...
    Not if collection in person it does after be with PayPal it's optional by the seller and how many people would spent 10k on eBay and wait for it to be posted not me

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  47. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by bokbok View Post
    Not if collection in person it does after be with PayPal it's optional by the seller and how many people would spent 10k on eBay and wait for it to be posted not me

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    Paypal has to be offered as an option, no? Most buyers want the protection etc....

    "how many people would spent 10k on eBay " is really the correct question though...

    I stopped selling on ebay years ago due to the fees so I may be out of touch but it was ridiculously in favour of buyers rather than sellers. All I use it for these days is buy cheap mobile phone covers from Hong Kong....

  48. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by 744ER View Post
    Paypal has to be offered as an option, no? Most buyers want the protection etc....

    "how many people would spent 10k on eBay " is really the correct question though...

    I stopped selling on ebay years ago due to the fees so I may be out of touch but it was ridiculously in favour of buyers rather than sellers. All I use it for these days is buy cheap mobile phone covers from Hong Kong....
    It does after be offered but the seller can do collection in person. I sold plenty items myself and I tick the box collection in person. They can click buy it now and come pay cash

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    Prices

    Quote Originally Posted by verv View Post
    I've seen a softening on prices in the last month or so. Particularly with patek / ap and a few of the Rolex models, notably the blue sky dweller and gold Daytonas, but prior to the dip they were almost artificially high.
    I think rolex at the minute are pretty stable but in all honesty the fluctuating stuff was bonkers at its peak.

    The Patek and AP prices in the secondary market are just not sustainable and have just come across one dealer who has dropped £20k off their original asking price on the Patek gold Chrono Nautilus.

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    I have been looking at what the current price of a Hulk would cost me and was surprised to find some near the £11k price bracket on Watchmaster considering I thought these had reached 14k -15k (albeit Watchfinder prices).

    A quick look on Chrono and values are around 11k but the site was awash with Hulks. I get the feeling prices could easily drop back soon.

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