1.13 today
or is it the Euro that is getting weaker - with the ECB printing loads of Euros (again)
wonder where it will be in a months time and beyond - hold onto Euros or cash in now?
Any FX experts on the Forum?
Predicting future FX moves is like predicting the weather! Even the so called ‘fx strategists’ in my industry get it quite wrong!
The GBP strengthening could be due to unwinding of short positions & the likelihood of an extension to the brexit date.
For future who knows, if it’s a truly hard brexit I expect gbp to weaken initially but over time (a long time!) BoE could hike rates due to inflation spiking and hence strengthening GBP, there are just far too many factors!!
ThanksOriginally Posted by gaurav_tzuk
I suspect the weather is probably significantly more deterministic.
Not an expert, but from the Grauniad:
"ECB has put Europe on a collision course with Donald Trump
Plan to cut interest rates and continue QE is an exchange-rate policy in all but name
Draghi, of course, insists that the ECB does not “target” the exchange rate. While that may be true, it is beside the point. By purchasing long-term securities, eurozone central banks will once again trigger a currency devaluation."
I've watched this a lot over recent years - the ECB limited buying to 50% of Government Bonds under Draghi - it will be interesting if Lagarde increases this, I think that she will because of the state of the Euro economies - my own personal view for the past few years has been that the Euro is in for a "fall"
I'm getting out of Euros at the present time.
........ the next few months may be interesting
Last edited by BillN; 18th September 2019 at 15:29.
You could be right. I know very little about this, but:
EU = QE (causing asset (Rolex/AP/PP) inflation rather than an economic boost?) negative interest rates (consumers waiting for deflation rather than spending?), high unemployment in the south
USA = Trade war, low Capex, manufacturing and industrials in recession
Saudi Arabia = disruption of oil supplies
U.K. = Brexit
Where are the sure fire investments? Timex Qs?
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
negative interest rates are another measure being used by the ECB, presumably in an effort to "encourage" commercial banks to lend money - they must think that is a good thing, after all they are the experts
seems familiar - lend money - bad debts - deplete your reserves, need to recapitalise - I suppose the ECB would say, lend money, get people spending it and get the economy moving and then everyone is happy.
I wonder if they are still buying Greek Government Bonds?
Lagarde is there to push governments to do fiscal easing as I think we’ve reached the limits of what monetary policy can achieve. She’s politically very well connected so I guess she has the ability to persuade finance ministers.
EU printing presses rolling again and fear that a no deal Brexit is a slightly lower risk.
Nowhere near the €1.40 it was back in 2015-ish
"fiscal easing" - is that "If you want a Daytona, just put it on your mortgage Sir, we can let you have another £100k at 4%"
I follow the Europe Recession thread on Pistonheads. A lot of financially astute people are watching the growing storm that they reckon overshadows the GFC of 2008...
Apparently the US Fed had to pump $50 billion of liquidity into the market yesterday as the USD repurchase rate increased 400% overnight.
Storm's a comin'...
In the end you can't beat "the market" whoever you are
This doesn’t belong in Watch Talk; further, it looks like a poorly disguised attempt to praise Brexit. Anyone who really thinks sterling will be stronger than the Euro is welcome to spend their own money....good luck.
you are correct, it does not belong in Watch Talk, my mistake
maybe it could be moved, are there any Mods on here or do I just ask Eddie?
This is hardly a hanging offence, just a sweet little opportunity for the regular moaners to moan. You have had your wrist slapped and very few of us are up in arms over it.
Whereas your reply looks like the reverse. Yah, boo, sucks belong elsewhere!
I’ve been aware for some months that my time on TZ was coming to a natural end. So ‘i’l say my goodbyes. It’s been enjoyable, but I’m off and won’t be back. That’s a promise.
Have fun.....hope the Rolex thing slowly sorts itself out.
Last edited by paskinner; 19th September 2019 at 10:51.
Bye then.
+1
(didn't think it would ever happen that I '+1' monogroover).
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Sorry to see you go Peter. All the best.
+1
+1.
He can always come back under a new user name, like you did, Ally.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
I'm disappointed, as well.
What are doing about it? Shall one of us change their mind?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Think it over?
You’ve made so many positive contributions compared to many on here it would seem a shame...
But I know the feeling
Sorry to see a long time member go. People forget that the forum is poorer when we lose experienced members. Hope you come back.
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
Back to business now toys have been thrown....
My opinion....
1. GBP to CHF - remain similar
2. Eur to everything will tank big time
3. A.Lange & Sonhe /Glashutte watches may soon be a real bargain.
More questionable?
4. Will be interesting to see how continental VAT/Duty on watches - both new and used will be treated from the EZ
5. Possible rate savings there for GBP buyers? (not Germany but equal or greater in most EU Countries)
Worth talking through?
Unless it’s to use SC
Just wait for the Euro to tank, then get some bargains.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." John Kenneth Galbraith, economist and author.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote