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Thread: Which Rolex as an investment?

  1. #1

    Which Rolex as an investment?

    A semi-hypothetical question:

    Assuming someone has access to a well stocked Rolex AD, and waiting lists aren't an issue, what would you suggest is the best investment purchase at the moment? (assuming any current model is an option).

    This wouldn't be for flipping short term, but more to justify another watch purchase.

    Obviously an impossible question to answer long term with trends etc, but of the current rolex line up where would your money go?
    Last edited by owain1; 1st August 2019 at 00:15.

  2. #2
    Master
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    Cellini. Double your money and then some.

  3. #3
    Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Buy what you like. Who knows what the market will do. The only bullet proof one is the Daytona - if there was a nuclear holocaust that would probably still trade above list!

    Of the ones that you could realistically buy without having to wait years you'd be talking ND Sub, Explorer, SD43, Air King, Deepsea, Milgauss and 2 Tone GMT root beer that you'd be able to actually buy. As a pure hunch I reckon the Root Beer out of those. ND Sub would have a slight premium above list, SD43 will be at list or below soon on the secondary market, Explorer you'd get less than list, ditto Air King, Deepsea and Milgauss.

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    Last edited by ryanb741; 1st August 2019 at 00:01.

  4. #4
    Master Tony's Avatar
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    If you discount all the short-term fluff, you can easily justify the purchase of a SS Sub/GMT/Sea-Dweller because, historically, if you wait five years you've generally been able to at least recoup your money.

    Tell your wife I said so.

  5. #5
    Isnít there talk the Milgauss is due to either be updated or discontinued next year, so would the price not jump?

    Adam.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by seabiscuit View Post
    Cellini. Double your money and then some.
    Agree, long term thatís the money maker

  7. #7
    Grand Master number2's Avatar
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    Rolex wall clock.
    "Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."

  8. #8
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    Buy which ever one speaks to you but steel sports models are all fairly safe money. Buy stocks! This one's been going up fast recently...

  9. #9
    Craftsman RS404's Avatar
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    Of the current line up the Hulk, white Daytona and Pepsi GMT I think would be the top three.

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  10. #10
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    A Daytona - 15% annual increase in price between 2011 and 2018.

    See my analysis here:

    https://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.p...olume-analysis

    (enjoy!)

  11. #11
    Grand Master
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    Back in the day , people bought a Rolex they wanted to wear, strange, but true.

  12. #12
    Grand Master magirus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seadog1408 View Post
    Back in the day , people bought a Rolex they wanted to wear, strange, but true.

    Indeed. The simple pleasures of watch collecting. Price analysis, futures, profits.

  13. #13
    Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by seadog1408 View Post
    Back in the day , people bought a Rolex they wanted to wear, strange, but true.
    Nah, urban legend, old wives tale.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by owain1 View Post
    A semi-hypothetical question:

    Assuming someone has access to a well stocked Rolex AD, and waiting lists aren't an issue, what would you suggest is the best investment purchase at the moment? (assuming any current model is an option).

    This wouldn't be for flipping short term, but more to justify another watch purchase.

    Obviously an impossible question to answer long term with trends etc, but of the current rolex line up where would your money go?
    Hookers and Blackjack, terrible investment, but boy is it fun!

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by seadog1408 View Post
    Back in the day , people bought a Rolex they wanted to wear, strange, but true.
    I agree. Unfortunately it's not me buying this watch, but someone else!

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by RS404 View Post
    Of the current line up the Hulk, white Daytona and Pepsi GMT I think would be the top three.

    Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
    Interestingly that was the shortlist that the person asking the question came to me with. As he already has a GMT BLNR the Hulk or daytona are probably better options.

    Personally I suggested a dateless sub or a white exp ii as the watches I'd actually want, rather than thinking about value/RoI.

  17. #17
    Journeyman
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    Long term I'd go with something low numbered, the Cellini should actually perform well in that regard but you're banking on dress watches becoming high fashion again (which they inevitably will-everything goes in circles).

    Personally, I'd imagine a Deep Sea Sea Dweller in plain old black to be a good shout. Traditionally unloved, available within a month and would seem to be made in relatively small numbers.

    Absolutely nothing wrong with having a hobby that pays dividends in my opinion.

  18. #18
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Buy 5 not 6 is my advice..

  19. #19
    Master
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    Buy anything you like but just make sure it is SS.

  20. #20
    Master luddite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seadog1408 View Post
    Back in the day , people bought a Rolex they wanted to wear, strange, but true.
    Wear? Most Rolex are bought and put straight into a safe.
    I'm just a very naughty boy.

    Good deals with- VINSTINK, kevkojak, Optimum, Omegary, seikoking, acg, SPEEDY, kfman, Card Shark, wajhart, Jot, danboy, zenomega, gaz64, minke, Mal52, Alas, norfolkngood, Sparky, rdwiow, mrteatime, gravedodger, joeytheghost, lordoftheflies, Silver Hawk, Filterlab, brooksy, marmisto, Fray Bentos, Bootsy, Harvey69, Mantisgb, bristolboozer, Jedadiah, newtohorology, Zephod, jimm1, Draygo, Raptor.

    I may have forgot one or two, apppologies.

  21. #21
    Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaurasOtherHalf View Post
    Long term I'd go with something low numbered, the Cellini should actually perform well in that regard but you're banking on dress watches becoming high fashion again (which they inevitably will-everything goes in circles).

    Personally, I'd imagine a Deep Sea Sea Dweller in plain old black to be a good shout. Traditionally unloved, available within a month and would seem to be made in relatively small numbers.

    Absolutely nothing wrong with having a hobby that pays dividends in my opinion.



    Oh, you're serious?

    Never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever buy a new Cellini as an investment, you might as well put all your money on Bolton Wanderers winning the FA Cup.
    (second hand they're a nice watch for sensible money - only because someone else has taken the beating on it though).



    Apart from that, I'm not really into this thread. Why does a Rolex have to be an investment ("for a friend")? Why can't it just be a watch? If your friend wants to make a few quid then he needs to put his name on a couple of waiting lists for...whatever. Any steel sports watch - but you know that. Everybody knows that.

    And there are no "well stocked" Rolex AD's, hypothetical or otherwise. If your "friend" has access to his pick of the desirable watches then he's in the trade, in which case he already knows what's performing.

  22. #22
    Master
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    The real danger is that people drift away from mechanical watches; in which case all those Ďinvestmentsí will be worth surprisingly little.
    Fashion changes, tastes change. The only reason to buy a watch is because you want to wear it.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by paskinner View Post
    The real danger is that people drift away from mechanical watches; in which case all those Ďinvestmentsí will be worth surprisingly little.
    Fashion changes, tastes change. The only reason to buy a watch is because you want to wear it.
    I think mechanical watches are and always will be a big boys toy. I suspect the main problem is size and loudness. Even SS Rolex at 40mm is big and chunky but it goes well with the current fashion. If slim watches and leather straps ever become the in thing, our Rolex are going to look yukkie and that's the investment angle done with.

  24. #24
    Master Tony's Avatar
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    The question of monetary value is always an integral part of any collecting hobby: antiques, art, watches, books, records, clothes, dogs - you name it.

    Raging against it is a bit weak.

  25. #25
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    Daytona is the obvious choice, with Hulk, Batman and Pepsi closely behind would be my guess.

    But if you want to invest why not invest in a house/shares?

  26. #26
    "Investment grade" Rolexes are rare vintage stuff like COMEX and the MilSubs. I don't think any current mass-produced models would qualify as a good investment.

  27. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by kevkojak View Post

    Apart from that, I'm not really into this thread. Why does a Rolex have to be an investment ("for a friend")? Why can't it just be a watch? If your friend wants to make a few quid then he needs to put his name on a couple of waiting lists for...whatever. Any steel sports watch - but you know that. Everybody knows that.

    And there are no "well stocked" Rolex AD's, hypothetical or otherwise. If your "friend" has access to his pick of the desirable watches then he's in the trade, in which case he already knows what's performing.
    Why does a Rolex have to be an investment? Good question, and I agree with you. Unfortunately I'm not in a position to be able to buy a new rolex, but my relative is (or "friend" if you prefer). I don't think he's interested in flipping it, but seems to want to justify the purchase to himself if he can buy a watch at RRP which trades for significantly more on the grey market.

    He's not in the trade, and doesn't actually know a huge amount abut watches, but has a good contact and seems fairly confident of being able to get hold of a Hulk/Daytona/GMT or whatever he ends up deciding on (subject to a short wait I'm sure). I was sceptical, but he managed to get his Batman GMT relatively easily, and he now wants to add to his collection.

  28. #28
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by owain1 View Post
    Why does a Rolex have to be an investment? Good question, and I agree with you. Unfortunately I'm not in a position to be able to buy a new rolex, but my relative is (or "friend" if you prefer). I don't think he's interested in flipping it, but seems to want to justify the purchase to himself if he can buy a watch at RRP which trades for significantly more on the grey market.

    He's not in the trade, and doesn't actually know a huge amount abut watches, but has a good contact and seems fairly confident of being able to get hold of a Hulk/Daytona/GMT or whatever he ends up deciding on (subject to a short wait I'm sure). I was sceptical, but he managed to get his Batman GMT relatively easily, and he now wants to add to his collection.
    If he bought a Batman then he knows a bit about Rolex. So he'd buy a Daytona. If he could really get one. And get you a Gmt Pepsi for a quick profit too!
    Fast is fine, but accuracy is everything.

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by owain1 View Post
    A semi-hypothetical question:

    Assuming someone has access to a well stocked Rolex AD, and waiting lists aren't an issue, what would you suggest is the best investment purchase at the moment? (assuming any current model is an option).

    This wouldn't be for flipping short term, but more to justify another watch purchase.

    Obviously an impossible question to answer long term with trends etc, but of the current rolex line up where would your money go?
    White SS Daytona, hulk, green dial yellow gold Daytona, meteorite dial wg pepsi, assuming all at list from an AD.

  30. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by cheesycake7 View Post
    Daytona is the obvious choice, with Hulk, Batman and Pepsi closely behind would be my guess.

    But if you want to invest why not invest in a house/shares?
    Certainly not as long term investment though Daytona possibly could.

  31. #31
    No watch can ever be classed as an investment

  32. #32
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    Red face Daytona

    Daytona variant will be the best choice

  33. #33
    Master Mouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hooshabak View Post
    No watch can ever be classed as an investment
    Tell that to Mike Wood :-)
    Last edited by Mouse; 1st August 2019 at 13:06. Reason: spelling!!!

  34. #34
    Master shalako's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seadog1408 View Post
    Back in the day , people bought a Rolex they wanted to wear, strange, but true.
    So true but the new breed of watch collector isnít really into watches, investment, investment, investment is all they are obsessed with hence this same question again and again.....

  35. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by shalako View Post
    So true but the new breed of watch collector isnít really into watches, investment, investment, investment is all they are obsessed with hence this same question again and again.....
    Watches and the like have always attracted investors, this is nothing new, other than now everyone can wheel and deal over the internet.

  36. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by kevkojak View Post


    Oh, you're serious?

    Never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever buy a new Cellini as an investment, you might as well put all your money on Bolton Wanderers winning the FA Cup.
    (second hand they're a nice watch for sensible money - only because someone else has taken the beating on it though).

    Indeed I am! Today's unloved trinket is tomorrow's rare heirloom, fashions change and you never know ;)

  37. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaurasOtherHalf View Post
    Indeed I am! Today's unloved trinket is tomorrow's rare heirloom, fashions change and you never know ;)


    I am going to stock up on ICE watches sharpish then.

    I didn't mean it to sound derogatory but I don't ever see a day where a commercially available "normal" gold Rolex trades above list. I may be proven wrong, but on that day I'll sell my shop and switch careers.

  38. #38
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    I think this is quite interesting as depending on when you sell and how the economy is at the time will have a huge bearing. Only possibly the luxury pen market will be hit harder I recon.

    I am not the biggest Rolex fan the finish and almost mass production of each item kind of takes them below ap pp watches as an investment as I think they are better and will perform better in the long term.

    But buy what you like and who cares itís unlikly youíll lose a fortune and you will have one of the most recognised brands in the world on your wrist.

    I have a zenith Daytona love it and wear it daily. Itís less heavy and cunky than the new model but a nightmare to get serviced another failing of Rolex. I do not have this problem with other watches even my vintage omega is serviced easier and with far better service

  39. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by kevkojak View Post

    I didn't mean it to sound derogatory but I don't ever see a day where a commercially available "normal" gold Rolex trades above list. I may be proven wrong, but on that day I'll sell my shop and switch careers.
    Better sell the shop then; the rose gold 116519, with green dial, is a current model, and it sells way above retail. £29k selling for 40k-45k. Of course you can start quibbling about what’s commercially available , but it’s current and has been available for two years. You could have bought one. It was easily available. Harder now because all the lemmings rushed in, frantic to get their names down after John Meyer recommended it.
    I bought the white gold/blue dial version . I suspect that will be above retail later this year. They won’t be the last in this crazy world.
    Last edited by paskinner; 1st August 2019 at 16:46.

  40. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by paskinner View Post
    Better sell the shop then; the rose gold 116519, with green dial, is a current model, and it sells way above retail. £29k selling for 40k-45k. Of course you can start quibbling about whatís commercially available , but itís current and has been available for two years. You could have bought one. It was easily available. Harder now because all the lemmings rushed in, frantic to get their names down after John Meyer recommended it.
    I bought the white gold/blue dial version . I suspect that will be above retail later this year. They wonít be the last in this crazy world.
    Same goes for the two current model WG GMTs.

  41. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by owain1 View Post
    He's not in the trade, and doesn't actually know a huge amount abut watches, but has a good contact and seems fairly confident of being able to get hold of a Hulk/Daytona/GMT or whatever he ends up deciding on (subject to a short wait I'm sure). I was sceptical, but he managed to get his Batman GMT relatively easily, and he now wants to add to his collection.
    Well if he really can get one through his contact it has to be a white dial Daytona if itís an investment heís after.

    This is totally ridiculous but WF now have one for £25,650 as of today for a 2019 model. Even a 2017 is £24,950.

    As I said itís ridiculous, beyond ridiculous in fact, but as the last one they had was near 24k and seemingly sold quickly, no doubt they think theyíll get close to it. I was lucky enough to get one the month they came out in 2016 and whilst itís a great watch, itís no way worth 3x what I paid RRP. Silly times.

  42. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    Well if he really can get one through his contact it has to be a white dial Daytona if itís an investment heís after.

    This is totally ridiculous but WF now have one for £25,650 as of today for a 2019 model. Even a 2017 is £24,950.

    As I said itís ridiculous, beyond ridiculous in fact, but as the last one they had was near 24k and seemingly sold quickly, no doubt they think theyíll get close to it. I was lucky enough to get one the month they came out in 2016 and whilst itís a great watch, itís no way worth 3x what I paid RRP. Silly times.
    Itís amazing that people will actually pay this for a steel one instead of getting a gold one!

  43. #43
    Journeyman Halitosis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaurasOtherHalf View Post
    ... the Cellini should actually perform well in that regard but you're banking on dress watches becoming high fashion again (which they inevitably will-everything goes in circles).
    Funny, but I believe dress watches are a slowly dying breed as society in general is becoming ever less formal. Suit sales must have halved over the last 20 years

  44. #44
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shalako View Post
    So true but the new breed of watch collector isnít really into watches, investment, investment, investment is all they are obsessed with hence this same question again and again.....
    Would agree entirely with this, no one wanted a GMTIIC when it was £4k now they all want them at £8k, utterly bonkers and undeniably people buying for the wrong reasons. But if it makes them feel good and like they have a sense of purpose and belonging in life then let them run away with the caravan of greed.
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  45. #45
    Journeyman Halitosis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shalako View Post
    So true but the new breed of watch collector isnít really into watches, investment, investment, investment is all they are obsessed with hence this same question again and again.....
    And this is why the 'hot' Rolex prices are at some point likely* to fall, as I imagine at least half are currently being bought by 'investors' or fashionistas rather than watch lovers, so will be offloaded when the market/fashion moves on to the next hot thing.

    * note I don't say for certain - China will have a big influence

  46. #46
    Craftsman JPE's Avatar
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    Any 5-digit 40mm steel sports model is probably pretty good investment.

  47. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Would agree entirely with this, no one wanted a GMTIIC when it was £4k now they all want them at £8k, utterly bonkers and undeniably people buying for the wrong reasons. But if it makes them feel good and like they have a sense of purpose and belonging in life then let them run away with the caravan of greed.
    Yep. I don't understand the black gmt furore at all and I dont think it's going to continue to boom in the way that speculators hope.

  48. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaurasOtherHalf View Post
    Indeed I am! Today's unloved trinket is tomorrow's rare heirloom, fashions change and you never know ;)
    I think it really depends on if you're going to wear it... there's many things to bet on if you just have a few thousand pounds to spare. It's probably much easier to diversify that investment as well. However if you'd wear the watch then why not;P

  49. #49
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    also one of these bad boys?


  50. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by seadog1408 View Post
    Back in the day , people bought a Rolex they wanted to wear, strange, but true.
    I, myself, am one of these people.

    I actually passed up a year-old hulk to go for a submariner, pre-owned. After trying it on!

    This was before the recent upsurge in demand/prices, mind. Not so sure Iíd pass the same opportunity up today.


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