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Thread: Brexit and it's affect on watch prices

  1. #1
    Master
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    Brexit and it's affect on watch prices

    I read this morning that the pound is about on parity to the euro due to brexit fears and some predict or may go as low as about parity with the dollar (currently at $1.2 ish). It seems Rolex have managed to hold prices in the UK a bit but, I don't know about other brands but assume some are also slightly cheaper here than elsewhere. If the pound does go down a chunk against the euro do people think the watch prices will need to significantly adjust too? Crystal ball gazing I know, but anybody got a view to offer?

  2. #2
    Master
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    Well, I think all UK watches will stop after brexit so they will have no value except for scrap and spares

  3. #3
    People who lose their income tend to sell off their valuables, so I guess prices will fall.

  4. #4
    Master
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    It’s hardly rocket science. If the value of sterling falls, then you need more pounds to achieve the same value against key currencies. So, if sterling devalues by 10% then Rolex need to increase UK prices by 10% simply to stand still.
    If they don’t, UK prices become cheaper than in rival markets, destabilising Rolex international pricing.
    So you can see where this is going......

  5. #5
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    As has been mentioned previously the UK is already one of the cheapest places to buy Rolex and other swiss watches and there will have to be a correction at some point

  6. #6
    GBP just might surprise us

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefs View Post
    GBP just might surprise us
    It's going to be worth less than a dollar?

  8. #8
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    Will they reduce the prices if the pound recovers?


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  9. #9
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    Well yeeees but...

    Exchange rate changes affect costs, yes. Cost of production has a link to same price, yes.... But how strong is that link for a luxury item like a watch?

    Prices misaligned across zones, borders could distort demand.... But when demand is far higher than supply already and it seems controlled does that matter?

    Exchange rate change and price correction on many essential goods will leave most people in UK worse off, this would likely reduce demands on luxurys so demand for watches may soften? Will demand be strong enough to support higher prices?

  10. #10
    My view, for what it’s worth, is that retail prices will have to increase to compensate for a crashing pound. I think that the increase, combined with a fall in demand, will very quickly mean an end to waiting lists for all except the traditional Daytona/Nautilus etc.
    Of more concern probably to most on here I predict that, in a no deal scenario, the second hand market will be flooded very quickly as millions lose their jobs and millions more panic, and achievable prices will fall to match. I also think that it will all happen very quickly and that within six months you’ll be able to buy a GMT at retail, walk to your local pre-owned dealer, and sell it to them for a £3k loss.
    My advice for anyone with a safe queen who is waiting to see how far prices will rise would be to sell it now. But that’s just my opinion, others will no doubt take the view that we’ll have our Empire rebuilt within six months and everything will be better than ever before.

  11. #11
    Master sean's Avatar
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    Rolex increases prices based on the value of the local currency vs. the Swiss Franc and commodity prices.* So if the pound tanks, prices are likely to rise.

    *Source: HM

  12. #12
    Plenty of cheap watches cars and houses to come I suspect
    66 million folk on a small increasingly isolated island isn’t going to help much.
    Hope I’m wrong!

  13. #13
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    I think the 'fear of Brexit' will have more effect than Brexit itself. (If it ever happens)
    Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by LondonNeil View Post
    I read this morning that the pound is about on parity to the euro due to brexit fears and some predict or may go as low as about parity with the dollar (currently at $1.2 ish). It seems Rolex have managed to hold prices in the UK a bit but, I don't know about other brands but assume some are also slightly cheaper here than elsewhere. If the pound does go down a chunk against the euro do people think the watch prices will need to significantly adjust too? Crystal ball gazing I know, but anybody got a view to offer?
    Not at parity 1.11 EUR to GBP. It might be at parity or worse at your Travelex or similar but not spot which is more relevant to corporates. You are of course assuming a hard Brexit which is not a given.....yet.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by GOAT View Post
    66 million folk on a small increasingly isolated island isn’t going to help much.


    It reminds me of an old quote (dark humor, be aware and ignore poor English) :




    "It's not all that black", said the executioner, "You only have bandage over your eyes"

  16. #16
    Master WatchIng's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    I think the 'fear of Brexit' will have more effect than Brexit itself. (If it ever happens)
    Yes - remember the old line, 'Buy on the rumour, sell on the fact'; with Brexit it will be the other way around.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by LondonNeil View Post
    I read this morning that the pound is about on parity to the euro due to brexit fears and some predict or may go as low as about parity with the dollar (currently at $1.2 ish). It seems Rolex have managed to hold prices in the UK a bit but, I don't know about other brands but assume some are also slightly cheaper here than elsewhere. If the pound does go down a chunk against the euro do people think the watch prices will need to significantly adjust too? Crystal ball gazing I know, but anybody got a view to offer?
    I don't know about those companies that have large profit margins to play with, but for smaller companies with slim margins then the Swiss Franc and Euro to GBP exchange rates are a very important factor in the final price.

    It annoys me when TV interviews about the pound becomming weaker always talk about the cost of a holiday and have some numpty from Middlesborough who says 'I don't mind paying a little extra for a jug of sangria'. They should talk to people who travel on business or buy components from overseas to get a realistic opinion of the damage that's occuring.

    I suspect a lot of price adjusting will happen once brexit, in what ever form it eventually takes, goes through. Everything from cars to watches will be more expensive and unfortunately (or possibly not) houses and flats will be a lot cheaper. Say hello to the times of negative equity and higher interest rates again. Going to come as quite a shock to a generation that's been accustomed to very low interest rates and has bought everything on finance deals. I read somewhere that 92% of all new cars are now bought on finance. 92%!

  18. #18
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Obviously dont hold too much stock in this but I have a friend who works in a senior capacity at a very successful Hedge Fund and he himself is super successful (personal earnings over £8m last year including bonus). He laughs whenever talk gets to Brexit and says it isn't going to happen whatsoever and that we are all being played. Whatever will happen has already been decided. He's been mopping up London property and says to go buy whatever you want and if he is wrong it wont matter if you go insolvent as everyone will be in the same boat anyway. But anyway obviously this isn't investment advice but the idea of buy what you want today as who knows about tomorrow stands true.

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  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Obviously dont hold too much stock in this but I have a friend who works in a senior capacity at a very successful Hedge Fund and he himself is super successful (personal earnings over £8m last year including bonus). He laughs whenever talk gets to Brexit and says it isn't going to happen whatsoever and that we are all being played. Whatever will happen has already been decided. He's been mopping up London property and says to go buy whatever you want and if he is wrong it wont matter if you go insolvent as everyone will be in the same boat anyway. But anyway obviously this isn't investment advice but the idea of buy what you want today as who knows about tomorrow stands true.

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    I think your friend might be a touch naive.

    The whole purpose of a democracy is that it does what the majority vote for, so as much as I hate the whole concept of brexit, I suspect it will be happening.

    If property values crash and interest rates go up, then not everyone will be in the same boat. A lot of people don't have mortgages (either retired, cleared them asap or they live in rented) and a lot of people don't buy on finance (well 8% of new car buyers don't and the rest of us buy a car that's 3 years old and half the price of something new). I know central London property is down by 15 to 20% since the brexit vote as I sold my old batchelor pad earlier this year at that level of discount.

    Overall I think half the population will be stuffed by higher interest rates and lower property values and the other half will just say to them, 'tough cookies, pay your debts, we're not about to bail you out'.

    Which particular hedge fund does your friend run? I'd like to make sure I have nothing invested in it. Oh, and does he fancy buying a watch?

    In general, I've noticed that a lot of people get a little carried away with how successful and brilliant they are, when in reality it's primarily good luck in picking and surfing a good wave. Waves come to an end though and unless you've planned ahead and have a proper exit strategy you tend to end up face down in the sand.

    Just my opinions of course.
    Last edited by LorneG; 20th July 2019 at 15:00.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by CatalystGuy View Post
    Will they reduce the prices if the pound recovers?


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    No, only goes one way which is why Rolex are very slow to make any moves, after Brexit the Pound/$ fell from 1.40/50 to 1.10/15 and Rolex raised prices by 10%, then the pound moved up to 1.30 but no change. If the pound falls to under 1.10 for a period of time Rolex might raise prices again.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by aksing View Post
    No, only goes one way which is why Rolex are very slow to make any moves, after Brexit the Pound/$ fell from 1.40/50 to 1.10/15 and Rolex raised prices by 10%, then the pound moved up to 1.30 but no change. If the pound falls to under 1.10 for a period of time Rolex might raise prices again.
    It’s the £ vs CHF which will dictate any Rolex price increase/decreases. They are waiting for brexit to be ‘sorted’ how ever long that will take before taking anymore action.

    The last thing they want to do is another price rise and for the pound rebound then a decrease will be required which will upset a lot of customers that paid the higher price (obviously not those with SS sports models)

  22. #22
    it will all collapse ,so to help you guys out I am willing to pay 3K for your hulks,gmts ,subs,daytonas before the crash......full sets only ;-)

  23. #23
    Master Tony-GB's Avatar
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    Let me text Nigel Farage and I'll get back to you.

  24. #24
    Master Tony-GB's Avatar
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    Nigel says he's turned his back on Rolex.

  25. #25
    Master
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    If anyone genuinely knew the answer to this question, they would not be wasting their time on a nerd watch forum, they would be sitting in a plush office in the city making a fortune.

  26. #26
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    If anyone genuinely knew the answer to this question, they would not be wasting their time on a nerd watch forum, they would be sitting in a plush office in the city making a fortune.
    The £8m quid a year my mate makes says he knows the answer lol. Let's see.

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  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    The £8m quid a year my mate makes says he knows the answer lol. Let's see.

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    If your mate is definitely making £8m quid by trading, I would be inclined to believe him.

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