closing tag is in template navbar
timefactors watches



TZ-UK Fundraiser
Results 1 to 17 of 17

Thread: Short term punt 」 v $

  1. #1

    Short term punt 」 v $

    Ok, I am quite risk adverse and know very little about trading, shares and all that stuff but. The nes today says that Sir Richard Branson is telling the world that if we have a no deal Brexit the 」 will suffer against the $.

    Now as I see it chances are it suffer a bit regardless of the deal so is it worth buying $ now? I知 not talking about huge amounts or risking my sons inheritance but if in the very short term I can get enough for a week end away simply by changing some money to $ then changing it back in a few weeks?

    Or am I really over simplifying this? I知 talking between 」2-」5k.

    Your thoughts?

  2. #2
    Master
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Driffield, UK
    Posts
    2,823
    Quote Originally Posted by justin44 View Post
    Ok, I am quite risk adverse and know very little about trading, shares and all that stuff but. The nes today says that Sir Richard Branson is telling the world that if we have a no deal Brexit the 」 will suffer against the $.

    Now as I see it chances are it suffer a bit regardless of the deal so is it worth buying $ now? I知 not talking about huge amounts or risking my sons inheritance but if in the very short term I can get enough for a week end away simply by changing some money to $ then changing it back in a few weeks?

    Or am I really over simplifying this? I知 talking between 」2-」5k.

    Your thoughts?
    I don't think this is viable for the 'guy in the street' because you don't have access to 'proper' exchange rates. Our company spends millions with Foreign companies and we have access to proper trader currency rates. Often these are a couple of percent better than the guy in street sees i.e. the 'spread' is small (difference between buy and sell). The average Joe will get a rubbish spread so unless the exchange rate shifts by a great deal then you won't make any money... you'll loose it in the spread.

  3. #3
    Master tiny73's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Back in Blighty
    Posts
    2,801
    I wouldn't assume the dollar will strengthen post Brexit, Powell yesterday was dovish and talked about cutting US interest rates despite the "strength" of the US economy. Interest rate cuts should have a detrimental effect on the $,

  4. #4
    Craftsman
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    West Lothian, Scotland
    Posts
    512
    You could buy US stocks / ETF, or short term US treasuries. Gets the exchange rate swing, with the element of market risk you are comfortable with. Gold also moves largely with USD, so is another option.

    The market should have already largely priced in the risk of no-deal Brexit. When/if it happens the downside will be there, but should be much less than the GBP upside that happens if we go for a second referendum or such like.

    10 year average is 1.47, so a spring back to there would be a 15% loss.

  5. #5
    Master IAmATeaf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    NW London
    Posts
    3,832
    Not an expert but .... Your 2-5k is what could be termed as chutney when it come to forex trading and as of today there is an 11% gap between buy and sell rates.

  6. #6
    Master
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Driffield, UK
    Posts
    2,823
    Quote Originally Posted by IAmATeaf View Post
    Not an expert but .... Your 2-5k is what could be termed as chutney when it come to forex trading and as of today there is an 11% gap between buy and sell rates.
    This is what I mean... No way for the guy in the street to make anything. When the high street places say they don't charge commission then the way they make their living is off the spread.

  7. #7
    Grand Master VDG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Whitehole
    Posts
    18,631
    Probably much wiser to buy now and hold Ruble, Yuan or Rupee ;)
    BREAKING: Iranian boats attempted to sink a British oil tanker in the Gulf of Tonkin.

  8. #8
    What if it was done through Revolut? I have a $ and account on there so could easily hold 」5k in dollars then transfer back to 」.

  9. #9
    Master
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Location
    Devon
    Posts
    2,954
    If you池e going on holiday and want to know exactly what your 」 will be worth in $ then I壇 advise buying. If you池e going on holiday and want to hedge your bets, I壇 probably buy half now and half when you池e going. If you want to speculate on buying foreign currency based on what one person says (and it痴 massively in his business interest to make sure a no deal doesn稚 happen) then you池e taking an unnecessary risk for potentially a few quid. The buying and selling rates are such a difference that you are already down before you start unless you can buy a large volume. This type of punt is no different than buying shares in a company because someone has tipped it, or crypt currency etc. If the 」1 ends up dropping to $1 then it will have been worth it.

  10. #10
    Master
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Location
    M62 corridor
    Posts
    1,755
    Quote Originally Posted by mr.chef View Post
    What if it was done through Revolut? I have a $ and account on there so could easily hold 」5k in dollars then transfer back to 」.
    Was just about to say that. Is there any restriction on how much you can convert with Revolut?

    No idea if it痴 a good idea, having said that.

  11. #11
    Master
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Driffield, UK
    Posts
    2,823
    Quote Originally Posted by David_D View Post
    Was just about to say that. Is there any restriction on how much you can convert with Revolut?

    No idea if it痴 a good idea, having said that.
    Look at the exchange rates when you move from one currency to the other and then back again. i.e. look at the spread.

  12. #12
    Craftsman
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Location
    London
    Posts
    658
    I just checked revolut and if you exchanged 」5k to USD and then straight back to 」 you'd lose just 」1.40

  13. #13
    Master
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Driffield, UK
    Posts
    2,823
    Quote Originally Posted by jimyu View Post
    I just checked revolut and if you exchanged 」5k to USD and then straight back to 」 you'd lose just 」1.40
    I suppose they must make their money on the original change then.

  14. #14
    Master sean's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Location
    Warks & Ontario
    Posts
    4,178
    I can't remember who said this, but paraphrasing, "What makes you think you know better than the other guy?"

    In any two-way transaction like this, there's a winner and a loser.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by justin44 View Post
    Ok, I am quite risk adverse and know very little about trading, shares and all that stuff but. The nes today says that Sir Richard Branson is telling the world that if we have a no deal Brexit the 」 will suffer against the $.

    Now as I see it chances are it suffer a bit regardless of the deal so is it worth buying $ now? I’m not talking about huge amounts or risking my sons inheritance but if in the very short term I can get enough for a week end away simply by changing some money to $ then changing it back in a few weeks?

    Or am I really over simplifying this? I’m talking between 」2-」5k.

    Your thoughts?
    The GBP has already fallen a lot of the past few years and is very weak against most other currencies. . If Johnson & the EU agree a deal before the 31th of October, the Pound will significantly strengthen ( so you will lose money) & if they dont reach an agreement then surely the argument is, that its already depreciated due to the Brexit uncertainty ( is already exceptionally weak against a basket of currencies) so wont fall that much further as the uncertainty is already priced in.

  16. #16
    Master
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    South east
    Posts
    4,328
    Quote Originally Posted by tiny73 View Post
    I wouldn't assume the dollar will strengthen post Brexit, Powell yesterday was dovish and talked about cutting US interest rates despite the "strength" of the US economy. Interest rate cuts should have a detrimental effect on the $,
    Indeed. Lots of variables.


    Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app

  17. #17
    Master
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    England and Spain
    Posts
    3,115
    Simple rules to remember over this.

    The only people who make decent money are the professionals. They have bigger discounts, they have algorithms and can operate 24 hours a day. They do not sit huddled over a screen waiting to press a button, the algorithm does that for them 24/365.

    Punters such as us cannot negotiate a discount, we operate on gut feel and even tend to operate during daytime. This thread high lights bad timing, asking and receiving advice takes a few days whereas the professionals algorithm will let him do the deal at say 3.23am when the rate has touched a certain level whenever that may be.

    You may make a few quid or lose it, it will not be much either way. Why even bother. you would be better off having an enjoyable day at the races.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •