Can relate to this, sold off my omega’s for business related photography equipment. I now have trouble buying / owning a modern sports diver (eg planet ocean) with a ‘clockwork engine’ - seems at odds with the ‘modern tool watch’ ethos. Fine for the moon watch, and other classics, etc but the prices don’t sit well with our current situation. Hence i’ve shifted towards quartz, kinetic, and solar (apart from the mechanical inox). Knowingly paying a lot for a luxury item is ok until it hits an individuals limit for being taken for a ride..?
Last edited by 2kilo; 23rd June 2019 at 15:23.
I did this with my other hobby....high end audio. After twenty-five years, I suddenly decided to sell the lot..including thousands of LPs. Raised a surprising amount of money.....and I never missed the hobby at all.
One day I may well do the same with watches....if so,I’d just keep a GS quartz and forget about the whole thing. The recent ‘Rolex’ situation has put me off, a lot.
Last edited by paskinner; 23rd June 2019 at 09:34.
There is a lot of joy to be had at the cheaper end of the market and it doesn't have to be Seiko or Citizen. I just scored a lovely little Air King Date for £950 and it brings a lot of pleasure with zero concern. I think if I still had my Sea Dweller I would still just wear it and enjoy it but there is a very different view and feel to watches out here in Western Australia. You rarely see high end watches and most people couldn't care less and so perhaps that also helps.
I also have a Pepsi Steinhart which is great value and great fun!
If it feels right to YOU to sell up then that is all that matters for now. Give it a go and see how you feel.
Last edited by stix; 23rd June 2019 at 10:46.
I'm thinking of selling off the collection, keeping £10 -£13k of it to get one lovely watch and a beater and then stick the rest in an isa/pay down debts as A having so many watches prevents me enjoying each one on its merits and B the compounded increase on how that money would perform in an ISA and SIPP is of more interest to me now I'm 42 and planning to retire before 60. You can love watches and have just one and have as much fun as having a collection
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Perhaps the real question is, what else do you plan to do with the money? If it’s something that would bring you more joy, then go for it. A few years of amazing holidays sounds tempting, but then it’s gone. The same goes for something like a car, that’s rusting away before probably being made illegal. So you might feel the need to invest it, and not just blow it. And yet, paying off some mortage won’t make a great deal of difference to monthly outgoings with current interest rates, so you’d have no watches and not a lot to show for it - and this could always be done later, after enjoying the watches for a while longer.
Investing in ISAs sounds sensible, or would have been over the last ten years, but currently they seem to be flatlining (if you disagree, please start a thread in the G&D immediately and share your wisdom!) Home improvements could make sene as you’d get to enjoy them on a daily basis, but speaking for myself, we don’t need any currently.
Yes you could certainly argue that prices of new Rolex are crazy and unsustainable and it would be best to quit while ahead, but for vintage pieces that are no longer being produced, the situation is slightly different. I have the feeling that if I still like them, other people probably do too.
So all in all, while having some cash sitting in overpriced shiny watches occasionally concerns me, I can’t find the clear motivation to spend it on anything else, or see a surefire way to double it with a clever get rich quick scheme. It probably helps that unlike the OP, none of them are so valuable and instantly recognisable that I wouldn’t enjoy wearing them.
Even if my enthusiasm waned I would never sell a Rolex. I would only do if I ended up hating the things which is unlikely to happen.
I have a box full of cufflinks and 80 vintage fountain pens and although the passion for more has long gone, I still like them enough to hold onto them.
As regards to a future bubble, there could well be a correction but everyones mindset is that a Rolex price sort of starts at £5k and once that is fixed in peoples mind as a normality, it will soon become the norm.
Striking that so many assume the basis of the decision has to be about money. You might sell-off your watches because you no longer enjoy them. That’s the best reason of all.
And I’d happily sell a Rolex; it’s just another mass-produced consumer product in the end. You know, like Range Rover or Adidas.
Last edited by paskinner; 23rd June 2019 at 10:57.
I sort of get your point Yeti and whatever you decide its your choice enjoy the spoils !
I am a Rolex man and love wearing in rotation and don't worry about the values too much
but a factor we should all consider IMHO is insurance cover as they appreciate
I asked insurance co about cover on 116500 and what they would do in event of loss? they said they would either replace it asap (good luck) with a new replacement or offer current list, after some discussion and chatting with a colleague they said they would cover at 'market value' .....its worth checking out your policy.
in relation to other watches i have just tried a Black Bay Bronze...great character at fraction of price.
I think Rolex are gradually and calculatingly positioning the brand on a par with PP and Tudor to fill the void bellow and take share from Omega ?
Last edited by TKH; 23rd June 2019 at 11:28.
It's what i have done just this and a few Casio and Citizen watches that cost a few hundred each.Originally Posted by Yeti
Best thing i have ever done and i have no regrets whatever silly prices Rolex may go on reaching.
Held onto one Rolex simply for sentimental reasons now only bother with sub £500. watches, that's not to say some more expensive stuff isn't interesting but so far not interesting enough.
Last edited by number2; 23rd June 2019 at 13:26.
"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."
'Populism, the last refuge of a Tory scoundrel'.
some positives..watches look cool and are extremely well made, well designed, some sports watch have great design rooted as an instrument tool watch, men can’t really respectively wear any other “trinket” apart from a wedding ring, they hold value if bought well and even go up, unlike most other goods which depreciate to nothing, demand will only go up - growing middle class in the world etc and digital smart watches are for kids, supply is limited
I can see where you are coming from but if you don't need the money and are comfortable then keep enjoying the watches?
What I find strange is people taking loans for watches. They're a luxury and not essential like a car or a house etc. If you take a loan to afford it then, in my opinion, you can't afford it.
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I wear all my watches because I love wearing them. The minute I don’t I sell them as to me it’s all about enjoying this hobby. The recent dramatic increases in value haven’t changed my love (or lack of it) for any watch. The fact that at the moment they are worth more is just a bonus - albeit that could be short term. Anyone whose been into watches for a few years arrived here because of the enjoyment. The monetary thing whilst always been in the background, just happens to have exploded in the last 3 years.
I’d never blame anyone for cashing in and reducing their mortgage down, helping with their children or simply enhancing their life. If that thing on your wrist can do more good elsewhere then do be it.
Save up the money for a watch in 6 months, buy it at the end, you've afforded it.
Buy the watch, pay for it over 6 months, you've afforded it.
The latter is better, because you have the watch for the six months, and other people get to feel shocked on your behalf.
I'm referring to loans taken for years.
Also I don't think I could enjoy something if I owed money on it but that isnt everyone.
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Like a house, or a car etc.?
It's just a matter of time...
A house/car is not comparable to a watch.
I see watches as luxuries like holidays, new conservatory, cinema room etcSent from my SM-G965F using TZ-UK mobile app
Must admit, I've been toying with selling my collection and clearing the mortgage.
Wow, if everyone on this thread follows through Rolex bubble might burst sooner than we think:-)
If Rolex can't keep up with demand, surely government should appropriate the business to maintain essential supplies?
For me it’s clear. It’s what you feel comfortable with. And what you need the money for.
For me, I’ve lost both parents in a two year period. Their estate and their hard work has left me in a good financial position of being 36 and mortgage free owning my home. For me now owning the watches is a luxury I can afford. The issue of the watches increasing in value all the time and the idea of my watch being worth more each month and this becoming an issue I find it good. I enjoy having some that are increasing in value, I still wear and enjoy them just as much as the ones you take a dive on the second you buy them. I do this because for me the overwhelming reason I buy any watch is to wear them let them become part of my memories and when I am done I hope they are enjoyed by my family, whether that be wear them themselves or sell them that’s their choice.
The only time I’ll sell up is if I lose the watch bug or their is a big need to free up money for the family!
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I’m willing to be a reverse martyr to help in bursting that bubble and relieve some of the guilt so if you have a speedmaster or a sub and fancy passing it onto the brown market then let me know
I am still hanging on to the trinkets:-)I’m willing to be a reverse martyr to help in bursting that bubble and relieve some of the guilt so if you have a speedmaster or a sub and fancy passing it onto the brown market then let me know
The issue is I was buying Rolex at considerably below list or in some cases list price recently and the huge increase in value has me contemplating that if the prices dropped overnight back to list or thereabouts, the £5k plus “profits” that I could have had would be a bitter pill to swallow seeing as £5k “free” money is a lot of money for me AND my family. Coupled with the fact that I look down at my wrist and no longer see the batman/hulk/Daytona that I longed for, unfortunately I just see a lot of cash. You say your watches are going up in value each month and increasing in value but how long do you think this will carry on for? They can’t keep going up in value over and above the “list price” forever. As others have said, people who are paying £12/13k for batman GMT’s surely have to take a bath in the future? It’s a £7100 watch from an AD...
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Last edited by Yeti; 23rd June 2019 at 15:24.
Yeti.
I agree if all the watches you own are increasing in value if there is an overnight crash the overall loss as it could be seen of the value would be big. Is it enough to make me move them on in case it happens? For me no, but I’m not in a position where all my watches are increasing.
I think you hit the nail on the head by saying it’s a lot of money for YOU and YOUR family, and you would feel that loss would impact your ability to enjoy these watches, so yes maybe for you selling some, most or all would be the right move.
It does boil down your views on watches and your family position.
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Yes a little. Just over a decade ago I really wanted a Submariner, back then a used 14060m was a two grand watch. Probably about a months salary, and although I couldn’t afford one at the time, I was happy to wear something of that value.
I ended up with a Speedmaster Pro and I was always comfortable with wearing it. Now for the past couple of years I’ve managed to own and wear a Submariner, and it’s great but I do feel more conscious about its current value. The other day I met with the MD of a large construction Plc. and he was wearing a Tudor Pelegos, it didn’t seem quite right that I was the one wearing a Submariner.
Yesterday I wore it swimming in Ullswater Lake, but if it’s value continues to rise I don’t think I will anymore - a Blackbay 58 would be more fitting I guess.
Same thing happened to vintage wristwatches were the price shot up BIG TIME. My main part of the collection military issued think I buy one a year if I find sort of a deal. Use to buy 2-4 a year. About 8 or so years ago I bought a vintage Tudor Snowflake Sub Cir. 1972 for 2000 US and a vintage Omega Speedy for 1400 US and I thought that was high at the time. I wont pay what they want for them today. Glad I kept those was never a flipper could not afford to replace most of the stuff in the collection. What a waiting list for Rolex sports models and at the price they want for them at that price you think there would be over stocked were they were not flying off the shelf a sucker born every minute. One thing I noticed on Fleabay over priced vintage military issued watches are not selling these days maybe the price will start going down so I can get back into the game.
Last edited by River Rat; 23rd June 2019 at 15:43.
Sounds reasonable, if you’re right you can take your profit and buy a one back later when the situation returns to normal. The question is if and when that will happen, though the moment when you’re thinking ‘this is crazy’ is often the time to act decisively. Luxury manufactures try to keep demand ahead of supply to prop up prices, but the current extreme situation seems like an anomaly. In theory the ever increasing supply should gradually catch up with demand. Then again, I doubt they’ll be rushing to drastically increase production and pop their own bubble, it wouldn’t be a good look, they’ll be moving the levers very gently and trying to avoid any sudden corrections. (Sort of reminds me of the control room scene in Chernobyl on Sky for some reason...)
Vintage watches is a slightly different dynamic, as the supply will never increase.
Last edited by Itsguy; 23rd June 2019 at 16:09.
So many threads like this, for me the more they go up the less likely I am to sell, I don’t get the “it’s worth £10k so now I’m worried to wear it” it was fine at £6k so the extra £4K has pushed you over the worry limit?
I think if we’re all being honest it comes down to being worried your watches are going to drop in value back to purchase price - god forbid that day eh!
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True but the mugs who take out credit are s******g themselves if they lose their job or get landed with a big bill.
Yes anyone can take out credit but it is rarely the sensible thing to do as living to the hilt is a total mugs game. I once had a friend (now deceased who managed a loan business) and his favourite quip was that most of his clients had an IQ down in double digits and they were easy to fleece. Doing it to cover an emergency is one thing but doing it to buy a luxury item is unwise to say the least.
Anyway at our age we should be the bank of Mum and Dad, not a debtor.
I don't know when but burst it will.
It is impossible that these watches can continue to keep increasing in price more than the overall level of increase in peoples wages. This is obvious logic.
Take say a Rolex Sub. they are currently selling for about a third of a person's (who is on the UK average wage) annual net income. Expecting these prices to keep on climbing to become a bigger and bigger fraction of that person's annual income is foolish. These are trinkets and not to be compared to essentials like transport and housing.
The more the meme becomes established, that Rolex watches will make you money even considering service charges, the more likely it is that people will borrow money to get this 'safe' asset convinced that what has happened in the past will happen in the future. More and more people are buying them, not wearing or hardly wearing them and just putting their prized asset away, to be cashed in later. This just greatly increases the number of BNIB watches out there that will eventually be available to be bought.
This is not like the how people treated their Rolex watches years ago and can partially explain the high prices paid for pristine older watches, there are just a heck of a lot less of them.
These current watches are mass produced in pretty high volumes and the market is almost certainly being artificially controlled by the manufacturer. Not a positive sign for value in the future.
Once a bubble market turns, it turns savagely, people who might now be looking at owing more than the falling 'asset' is worth, tend to try and cash out, this exacerbates the situation and the crash can be horrendous.
Mitch
I blame my kids and I blame them every day
At the time dropping 5-10k into a couple of watches just didn’t seem right. So I used the money to fund all 3 of them through their education and with 3 of them and only 3 years age difference between them a lot of years went by. They’ve now all graduated but I now can’t face spending the amount of monies being asked.
On the plus side, I still have my kids, have invested in them for the future, just hope it was wise decision with good returns
Have noticed a bit of uncertainty in threads like this, even on TRF. A year ago OP would have been shot down for suggesting, now the majority of replies are people agreeing and thinking of the same thing.
This is why I’ve always thought people who buy over list for new, current Rolex are mad really. It’s one thing to buy a 60’s Submariner for what you think it’s worth but paying a premium for a model that’s still in production that is hard to get (because the AD has passed it to a grey dealer or flipper) seems madness. They’re out there it’s just you’re being held to ransom for them. When the tide turns more this way it’ll be a steeper decrease than the increase that came before!
It just shows how impatient and in need of instant gratification we’ve become.
It’s the people who can’t really afford to buy over list that are the ones to worry, people that may have bought from a grey dealer on a credit card for example. The worry of the market change for these people will see them offloading pretty fast.
I might be wrong here but I kind of see the credit type of Rolex buyer the ones who are most likely to buy at a premium. The real rich people will no doubt have great ‘relationships’ with their AD and get anything at list. Also, the only very wealthy people I know who could buy anything they wanted (even millions if they really wanted to) wouldn’t buy over rrp.
I asked a wealthy customer of mine the other week about that very subject, he loves watches and has a genuine interesting collection from Timex to Rolex but all stuff he likes for a reason that he’ll happily tell me about ie not just the latest must have AP or Rolex. I asked him if he’d ever buy a new in production Rolex over list and he just said straight, no chance.
Bring it on! Then maybe a few of us common guys can buy one. £1k for an old Rolex would be nice.
Obvious but not quite right - luxury watches are bought by a small and rich segment of society, not society as a whole. And the wages of the rich have been rushing ahead very nicely, while those of the rest have been moving very little. There’s no reason the prices would relate to the wages of people in general, just the lucky ones. To this you also have to add a lot of emerging economies, plus a fair amount of corruption and kleptocrats. Consequently watches are now targeted to a breakaway group of the global wealthy, instead of the traditional comfortable middle. I have a theory that this repositioning happened more or less by accident when the Swiss Franc doubled after the financial crisis, doubling the price of watches, and sales strangely continued to go up instead of down.
That aside, I agree that paying over list for watches that are currently in production is a bold move, though there a plenty of people that are rich enough that they wouldn’t care if they lost a few grand, so long as they don’t have to wait for the latest fashion item.
Nice theory, the decoupling of the hyper from the merely wealthy at an almost unprecedented pace is certainly well documented.
I've just purchased a Steinhart Ocean vintage GMT & I'm gobsmacked at the quality at this price point. I sold a Muhle Glasutte Marinus GMT that I never bonded with that was over 5 times the RRP of the Marinus, but the Steiny hits the spot and under 500 quid!
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I don't think the small really wealthy segment of society are going to be that enthused by buying a mass produced, readily available watch.
I think they would be more likely to buy say Patek or some of the very expensive hardly seen boutique models.
The Rolex market I think is largely in the bit better off than average person market but if prices continued to grow at a faster rate than those persons wages, then this market will continue to shrink.
Mitch
My personal philosophy, other than in respect of real estate (where the numbers can be too challenging), is that if you cannot or could not stomach an uninsured loss of the item concerned (watch, car, whatever) then perhaps you should not own said item.
"Why, Sir, you find no man, at all intellectual, who is willing to leave Rolex. No, Sir, when a man is tired of Rolex, he is tired of life; for there is in Rolex all that horology can afford."
Insurance can and is used by most to offset the total loss risk so don’t see your point of view.
With gambling, stocks/shares etc. then yes. Back in 1999 I lost around 10k on stocks/shares but I was prepared and accepted the risks.
My POV, is that independent of insurance (which may or may not operate as required at the time of loss), what is your loss threshold? Focuses the mind in my opinion. Real estate and investment portfolio aside, there is no material item the loss of which I could not stomach, watches included. Hope that is clear enough.
Seems even a phone is too much for many relatively wealthy people.
Yes, I've stopped rolling up my cuffs if I have anything identifiable.
I think crime is significantly less than it was but it's a problem that watches have become so much more expensive and there is decreasingly little else of value that anyone carries that can be sold. An iPhone can be disabled within minutes of a theft, I don't carry any cash at all or sometimes not even cards.
Watches are definitely escalating in value in real terms. It used to be a month's salary for a normal person to buy a Rolex; now this has turned in to several months.
I feel a lot of empathy with the OP. It's too much.
A lot of these seriously expensive vintage watches have intrinsic value of barely £1k. Some of the fakes that you get these days are better made.
Originally for me it was all about the quest to find, buy and wear some iconic watches. The thrill of the chase. Consequently lots of watches later i have a very nice little collection including Rolex, Panerai, Blancpain, Panerai, JLC, Omega, and even an old Seiko, to name a few.
But, whilst the quests for my personal white whales continue, (a 1950's Blancpain Air Command would be very nice) iam finding that I simply not prepared to pay the ridiculous prices correct watches are commanding.
That said, i cannot see myself selling my collection anytime soon, simply because some are irreplaceable and once they are gone, they are gone!
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
The intrinsic value of many items can be measured in pennies. The intrinsic value of a Van Gogh painting would be pennies. In fact the frame is likely to have higher intrinsic value than the canvass, yet here we are 10's of millions for a bit a canvass covered in old paint.
As for fakes being better quality, perhaps, but again completely misses the point. A bit like comparing a brand new Porsche 991, with its CNC machining and robotic assembly with an original handmade Gmund Porsche. The 991 is by far a better car, but its not one of the first 16 sports cars Porsche made.
People are not buying just a "thing". They are buying the history and the story the "thing" has.
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
Well yes but Van Gogh is dead. Rolex aren’t and are creating odd market conditions by producing excess Datejusts and insufficient steel sports. Shortages of new watches that people want are backing demand in to vintage and used. This has created the grey market that we currently endure.
Just out of interest Ryan I’d love to see your collection on here. I always see you popping up with new incomings & great at helping out over members. Apologies if I’ve missed this somewhere.
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Interesting as I'm part way through a huge cull of my collection. I no longer have any desire to keep watches that I rarely/never wear. So far I've sold:
Rolex GMT Master II Pepsi (16710) - The most stunning watch but too small for me.
IWC Portuguese Chronograph (3714) - Beautiful watch that I bought as the closest thing I would get to a dress watch; I never wore it.
Heuer Carrera 1964 Re-Edition (CS3111) - Stunning looking watch but way too small for me and I knew this when I bought it!!
Omega Seamaster Professional (2531.80.00) - My first 'quality' watch, a beautiful thing and worn daily from 2000 to 2005 but rarely worn since.
Watches I will be selling in the coming months:
IWC Pilot Chronograph (3717) - currently being serviced.
Breitling Avenger GMT II (FBI Limited Edition)
Ed White Speedmaster with excellent DON bezel, original bracelet, No.6 endlinks, box but no papers.
The only watch I've added recently is a Rolex Sea Dweller (126600) that has been the only watch I've worn since it arrived. That said there are some keepers that I won't be parting with:
Breitling Aerospace Avantage
Bremont ALT1-C Polished Black
Bremont Military Special Project x 2
Omega DSOM
Omega Planet Ocean
Seiko Gen 1 Pilot's Watch
Seiko Gen 2 Pilot's Watch
Last edited by Skier; 24th June 2019 at 00:04.
Very nicely put. I initially viewed (and still do) the whole business of having a quality watch as a small antidote to modern disposable culture. The value and status thing is clearly there but not the main motivation for me anyway.
OP rarely do you regret realising a 'profit' if that fits your personal circumstances at the time - even if the asset then continues to go up
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