Reply With QuoteOne thing that has cracked me up about the recent watch boom is the amount of people falling over themselves to buy a tudor GMT that has a well documented movement issue.
I'm in complete agreement with the OP. Used to be a Rolex fanboy for many many years. At one point peaking with 12, and over the years having maybe 40 of them, including having owned the same models (at greater cost each time) a number of times over.
Now I have ZERO Rolex. They bore me and I'm so over the supply issue.
Instead I've gone over the Panerai - where I actually spend more that I did on Rolexes. Here is a post I made on another Forum:
"I get your dilemma. I was a Rolex fanboy for decades and at one point had 12 SS sports models. Only a year back I had 9 but that's now down to just 1 'keeper', a Hulk I've had for 8 years.
Many years ago I had a PAM24 Submersible, but this only lasted a few days. I thought it was too big, too shiny and I hated the rotar wobble of the Valjoux movement.
Every now and then I would still hanker for one, the 233 in particular - for some reason.
A couple of years ago I picked up a 233 and it snowballed. In that time I've owned 233, 346, 425, 389, 368, 932, 687, 932, 911, 913, 654 (I think that's it), and still own 7 of them, albeit that I'm offloading 3 to fund a house move.
Since the Panerai arrived the Rolexes literally never got/get worn and I sold 8 of them.
So why Panerai:
The history is every bit as interesting as Rolex. Heritage, marketing plus some scandal.
The strap changing is addictive and changes the look hugely.
The London Boutique team are stars - on first name terms with them all and you can always pop in for a drink and chat, not just about watches.
The quality of the watches (all inhouse movements) IMO is every bit as good as others in that price point.
It's very rare to ever see anyone else wearing a Panerai (Rolex are so so ubiquitous).
In particular I love (on various models):
The presence on the wrist - if you're wearing a watch, then wear a watch... Bold and proud.
The domed crystals.
8 day movements.
Easy change strap mechanism.
Titanium cases.
Power reserve indicators.
The easy change hour hand (jumps for timezones).
Sandwich dials.
The case architecture.
As for value, yes Rolex tend to hold/increase, but if you want an investment put your money into your pension or an ISA, if you want to ENJOY a hobby follow your heart.
Personally I don't get on with the "Bettarini' case models, they lack the curves/interest of the 1950, 1940 and other Rads."
I think this bit says it all FOR ME: As for value, yes Rolex tend to hold/increase, but if you want an investment put your money into your pension or an ISA, if you want to ENJOY a hobby follow your heart.
One thing that has cracked me up about the recent watch boom is the amount of people falling over themselves to buy a tudor GMT that has a well documented movement issue.
Last edited by Middo; 24th June 2019 at 19:34.
I think a big part of what the OP is saying is that he feels uncomfortable wearing a £10k watch in certain company ... I can certainly see this as the Rolex brand continues to snowball people are more likely now than ever to know the value of what they are looking at ...
Being comfortable with say a £4k watch can easily translate to discomfort when that watch has appreciated to £10k.
I have my Smiths W10 for those occasions when I don't want to be seen with an expensive watch.
These days my most worn watch is the BB58 which seems to me to be a bit more discreet than a Rolex and certainly a lot less valuable.
I completely sympathise with the OP and went through the same feelings myself 3 years ago. Owned some wonderful "Grails" over the years but prices are just beyond stupid and don't sit right with me anymore.
Owning some lovely watches at stupid prices developed into a "burden of ownership", becoming too precious and rarely worn. Sold everything and thanks to the likes of Timefactors et al was able to rekindle my passion in watches at a more comfortable level. I've maxed out at £3.5k for a single watch but the rest range from £500 to £2000. No longer the run of the mill, usually a limited edition or something just a little bit different.
Currently on a mission to whittle down the collection to 3 main watches (excluding the likes of Smart watches, G-Shock etc which I also love), and ironically 2 are ones I've previously owned but stupidly sold. Just one more to go then the magic trio is complete!
There's a demographic issue, too: men in the 40s and 50s whoa re now at peak earning power had watches as kids.
The saw their grandad, father, uncle, favourite actor, role model with an Omega or Rolex and aspired to one.
That bulge on the graph is pushing though and will soon be no longer buying and/or cashing-in.
The next generation won't be as interested.
I've posted about this before:
1.)
"An example: an old chap in my fishing club has a 1953 Velocette. He rides it to the club and it's in good, solid condition, regularly used and maintained. He was saying that its value rose steadily as the men who either had one for wished they'd had in the 1950s reached peak purchasing power -- and then declined as they got too old to ride and even sold the ones they'd bought.
Do you think people who've never grown up with wristwatches, much less mechanical wristwatches, will want to spend a large sum on one in 10, 20, 40 years' time? Maybe, but as jewellery / status symbols / collection pieces.
I'm 47 years old. I want a pension in 15-20 years' time. I'm not investing in watches.
£100k = decent collection of Rolex watches. New and/or old. Chronos, divers, whatever. Some classics (1016? 5513?), box and papers? Nice to wear and look at. Not much in the way of on-going costs (insurance? servicing?). And hope the value continues to rise to make it a good investment.
-- or --
£100k = buy-to-let property = £500 pcm rental income + outright ownership of a real, habitable bricks and mortar house. Even if the house ended up worth the same or even a bit less than you paid for it you're still up on the deal. And you can live in it.
Call it 4% net.
And that's not counting any increase in the value of the property.
I can't get that from a bank.
And it won't be a fake or get stolen or have to be kept in a safe or get dropped on the hard, cold marble floor of a hotel (don't ask . . . .)"
2.)
"Rolex's Veblen pricing strategy is, imVho, myopic. (Although I'm impressed -- in a cynical way -- by two moves on their part: first, non-sequential "serial" numbers, so no-one knows when watch was made, making papers all the more important and second, the way they've manoeuvred Tudor in as a sub-brand to pick up the customers they have priced out of their main brand. Very clever on both counts.)
Finally, I do think there's a demographic issue. Men over, say, 45 years old (anyone who had vinyl and remembers the arrival of cd's) may have fond childhood memories of ticking wristwatches. They may have owned one or been entranced by their father's or grandfather's watches. Such men are now at peak earning power (for sake of argument the years from 45-60 years old). They want birth year watches and complications and rugged sports models and the Big Names. And they've got the money to buy them.
Fast forward 20 years. The digital generation. Those who grew up with "wearable tech". They already have less appreciation / understanding of mechanical marvels and are less inclined to wear jewellery. Will they want heavy, inaccurate, single-function, expensive clockwork strapped to their wrists? I hope so, but I'm not sure. Also, look at the demographics of this place and how price rises have excluded younger buyers.
I've seen the demographics of vintage motorbikes: the makes and models that blokes rode in their teens and twenties have a nostalgic resurgence 30 - 40 years later. It happened with 1950's and '60s Vespas and Lambrettas and now it's all about 1970's and 80's Jap bikes (including -- incredibly -- the Yahama FS1 moped). They get a second life when their previous owners want to re-live their youth and have the money to buy them back. Then prices fall back (although not *all* the way back) when those second-time around owners get too old to ride or maintain their bikes and move them on, by which time no wants them as the upcoming generation of buyer have no emotional attachment to those models.
Anyway, will chaps in 10, 20, 30 years' time want mechanical wristwatches? I don't know. I hope so. But I'm not optimistic."
3.)
"Related to the demographic issue is the cycles or waves that collectibles and antiques go through. It's not my area but I understand Japanese wares are down and Chinese are up (two very different economies). There was a time when Art Deco was very out of fashion and you couldn't give it away. Now it seems that "Midcentury" Nordic and Scandi are popular (my mum is amazed that Ercol furniture from the 1960s is hip).
Vintage watches have done well lately, especially certain makes / models (e.g. Rolex ss sports) and types (military). Other haven't done so well (hummers, tuning-fork and other early electronic stuff). Again, not really my area -- just pointing out that the market has fads and phases. Also by common consensus some styles have aged well while others look dated. If we could predict what would be a future classic then we'd all be millionaires. Also, what is now, currently, considered classic is a shifting, fluid, dynamic thing: see the stuff about bikes and cars or the changing tastes or the difference between the Russian and Chinese oligarchs buying back their art vs the limper Japanese market.
If I had a lot of money (I mean, five and six figure sums) would I put it all in watches? No. Even vintage Rolexes? No. But would I have some as part of a mixed portfolio? Yes. Also, I love wearing vintage watches and even if I were to sell them at a loss I'd have had the joy of ownership and education and experience and I'm happy to pay for that (within reasonable limits). It's not all about investment and money, money, money.
Do I think that practical, historical, and/or rare models will hold their value or even increase? Yes. (I know they have, lately, I'm up on my deals this year ;-) ) They are also, as I said, a pleasure to own and wear and learn about. That, to me, is worth something intangible and unquantifiable.
Would I buy a new Rolex at current prices (never mind after any increase)? No. I think they are overpriced / overvalued. Even with Rolex's legendary residuals I honestly think market forces will be against you in the long term. Also, I don't like them. Any of them. (I spent all weekend wearing a 1950s Oyster Perpetual though.)"
4.)
"A couple more thoughts that came to me in the night.
First, as well as the demographics of wristwatch ownership (and look at how many absolutely beautiful pocket watches there are on eBay at crazy cheap prices) there's the inter-generation wealth issue. My parents (Baby Boomers born just after WW2) are the blessed generation. I'm doing ok (aged 45 I own my own house). But Gen X and the Millennials? Property is the big issue, but also wages / employment and wider implications of globalisation. Give a 20 or 30 year old £10k and it's towards a deposit not spent on a holiday or watch or whatever.
Second, it seems to me that Rolex are now basically producing something between a currency and an investment (like stock or a bond). It's almost as if people are buying shares in Rolex or a unit of currency when they buy one of their watches. That's OK but we all know what can (and does) happen to such investments. By raising prices for the sake of raising prices (ie without any external -- much less objective -- market forces at work) Rolex are playing a dangerous game. Pyramids and Ponzi Schemes have been mentioned and I think that is wrong, but I can see the aforementioned demographic forces at work in 10, 20, 30 years' time."
Apologies for the long post
Agree with the above on some points....my older brother in law owned a genuine steam traction engine for 35 years plus- and saw the value peak some while back for the same reasons described above ( he actually got lucky and sold it to a museum trust for a decent price)
If you want a decent pension to last you I’d be thinking in terms of the current LTA - one observation I’d make is that there are a huge number of 30-40 something “managers” who are good at their jobs but spectacularly mismanaging themselves and their futures in this respect.
Originally Posted by chrisparker
I've been considering selling up for a little while, and prompted by this thread and a review of my finances I've just bitten the bullet and I'm cashing in. I bought two SS Rolex watches brand new from ADs in 2015 which combined are now worth 2/3rds more than I paid for them. I've worn them sparingly and enjoyed them I guess, but I'm not that much of a Rolex fanboy as the bracelets don't quite fit my skinny and oval wrist properly. I also bought a spare Omega Speedmaster Ultraman just in case prices skyrocketed, but they didn't so I'll just get my money back on it.
The increased Rolex values have become a real issue for me. I live in a very ordinary area and have a fairly ordinary lifestyle, so walking around with that much money on my wrist made me feel very self conscious and uncomfortable. What's the point in having them if they don't give you pleasure? When the fun stops, stop, as the adverts say.
In a few days I'll be down to a couple of Speedmasters and an Oris for summer holidays, and my mortgage will be paid off
I feel I've gotten my last expensive watch (a rose gold Longines albeit with a massive 66% off, a birthday present from my wife and family) and will stick to the sub £1,000 bracket vintage and japanese.
Along with the insurance, risk of theft and increasing house prices, stagnant wages the economic winds are not blowing towards dropping large sums on watches for me.
Binge watching the BBC series "Years and Years" lately has not helped my pessimistic view of the future either. Anybody else think this was closer to the truth to be comfortable.
I would agree with the OP to cash out before the bubble bursts.
I have had this feeling , it comes and goes.I get up at 5am every morning and have done for the last 35yrs.So watches, amongst other things are what I like to spend my cash on and I buy for love not investment At the end of the day we leave this world with what we came in with,if my watches can help my kids get on the property ladder or a better education then I am happy.Yes values can get scary,and bubbles burst and form again....
What an interesting debate.
I've always been a used buyer but must admit I have stopped buying expensive watches as I still have it in my mind when you get a Sub anywhere for £1500.
I have a nice collection but I am getting far more fun nowadays with guitars and amps rather than overpriced watches sitting in drawers.
In fact I might put up some trades in the future.
Cheers,
Neil.
Anyone cashing in a Daytona ceramic has just got another boost... $30k for one just sold at Christie’s online auction.
I watched that, thought it was excellent. A very dark forecast of the future.
Dark is not the word, when I saw the scene of the run on the bank, I was reminded of Northern Rock and all the others. Could easily happen again. Only 10 years from the last crash in Ireland and property is already past its previous peak.
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Dark is not the word, when I saw the scene of the run on the bank, I was reminded of Northern Rock and all the others. Could easily happen again. Only 10 years from the last crash in Ireland and property is already past its previous peak.
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