Reply With QuoteBeing perhaps a little jaded these days, this thread brings back the sheer joy and youthful exuberance that this hobby can engender.
Dear all,
What else to do on a Sunday evening than immersing oneself in numbers and watches?
I previously published a Price/Volume analysis for the Rolex 14060M (you can find it HERE) and thought it would be an absolutely cracking idea to follow up with another. This time, for the Rolex 5513.
The data comes from the Sales Corner of a European forum and is only for pre-owned Rolex 5513 Submariners. As you know there are many different 5513s and they are not all equal in value. A gilt dial will be worth more than a maxi dial for instance. But here, i've bucketed them all in one category which leads to some choppiness.
So here's what it looks like:
We can see that on average, Rolex 5513 prices have increased at 8.9% per year during that period, which is more than twice the rate for the 14060M which increased at 3%p.a. (cf. graph bottom).
Looks like the average number of 5513s being sold is decreasing. Went from an average of 14 sold per quarter in 2012 to 8 per quarter in 2018.
As volume goes down, prices go up as suggested by the negative correlation ratio of -0.5. Not the strongest but still a correlation. This contrasts with the correlation of 0 found in the price/volume analysis of the 14060M.
Unit on y-axis is Euros starting at 0 (purposefully removed)
For reference, the 14060M data.
Enjoy!
Being perhaps a little jaded these days, this thread brings back the sheer joy and youthful exuberance that this hobby can engender.
F.T.F.A.
Innit! Truly fabulous to see the word correlation used three times in close succession, and that those y-axis units being removed so purposefully. Observing the visual interpretation of the value interrelationship during the famous 2014 availability spike is the highlight for me.Originally Posted by magirus
Indeed, the joy of the hobby is obvious. Is apparent. Is clear to see. Is fulfilling. Is not related to money or its nth degree
David
Infinite Diversity in Infinite Combinations
Galaxia... Nah, it’s Mr Logic from Viz.
I love the passion for horology. However, if one of my students turned this in I would probably give them a "C-". You can't generalize any sort of trends based on the sales from one EU forum. The vast majority of these sales are never even advertised. At least scrape a few different forums and attempt to control for condition by using a text mining program!
Last edited by JP Chestnut; 27th May 2019 at 00:55.
Ouch!
Yes that is correct but to be fair most of the contents of this forum would only merit a "C" as sweeping generalisations are always the order of the day. I would have sacked myself back in my working days if I had written some of the rubbish I have written here. Like it or not, submissions to most fora are just one step up from drivel and in the main, repetitive. I would suggest that 99% of us are guilty of that.
However to be fair, these submissions do generate some thought and I do find them interesting, so I hope to see more of them.
A plus for effort and passion but not of much use to draw any conclusions regarding overall trends as data derived from an anonymous single European forum may not lend itself to any meaningful extrapolation. Data is derived from a small
Microcosm of internet watch fora world which in itself is a smaller microcosm of real world. People looking to read anything into this would be seriously misguided. I would have atleast some interest if the data was derived from TZ-UK sales corner as it would have some relevance.
I wouldn't be harsh on the OP as obviously considerable effort has gone into it.
Thanks Mick, is there a watch you’d be interested in looking at? I can run it for you :)
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Are you telling me that I won’t get the Nobel Prize for my groundbreaking work!? ;)
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Last edited by Galaxia; 27th May 2019 at 17:15.
Yes indeed.
Rolex Explorer11 - 1655
Rolex Daytona - 16520
Rolex Subdate - 16610
Rolex GMT - 16710
Good useful threads, so please keep them coming.
Hahah awesome. Love the enthusiasm. Let’s start with the 16520! Love that watch.
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Thanks again for your efforts and post Galaxia - I find them interesting. I'd be interested to see your analysis of a model that starts current and is then discontinued such as the 116710LN: I imagine loads hit the market when values shot up this year, or the Explorer 2
OP should be scraping Watch Recon, and Ebay sold listings worldwide while controlling for seasonality at the least. Even so, tons of watches sell through Instagram (which I don't really use/understand) and (in my circle at least) informally via word of mouth. Word of mouth is even more important for vintage. The best vintage examples that I've personally seen haven't been offered publicly since 2000 at the latest.
As someone else said in the previous thread, you would need someone like Milton or Eric Ku to reality check something like this.
PRS-28 please
Relax dude.
I’m doing this for fun, not a PhD thesis
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Oh yes that’s an interesting one. Perhaps for the explorer 2 as well have more data both sides of the event. I’ll probably do both!
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Re:
I’ve showed you that Rolex prices increase over time and even that some increase faster than others! ;)
Exactly. Hardly a news flash or anything to stop the presses over. You have just corroborated a known 'fact'.
You could use the considerable time and effort you spend on unproven or contentious claims.
Like looking at Friday threads from last five years ( I know a lot of work ) and see what are the trends for Omega or Panerai. Who knows you might unearth some new information. Again limited sample size but that is something we have to live with.
Again your efforts are appreciated but maybe direct it in a more meaningful direction.
I don't think Rolex prices vary that much depending on location so I think that the conclusions of the charts are more or less what I have in mind regarding pricing as well.
Which forum was used for the data?
I’d be interested in how many 5513 Milsubs were sold and how much they increased if you have another dull Sunday any time soon.
Not many floating around on Sales Corner. You’ll be better off googling that one!
By the way, I think your autocorrect changed “fun” to “dull” in your message below 😂😉
You’re right. I should have said fun.
I expect your students spend more than just a sunday evening with nothing better to do when trying to curry favour with their uptight tutor .. :D
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