Rolex 14060M price/volume analysis

[Galaxia]

Hi all,

I’m a big fan of numbers and their interpretation. Though I’m a WIS, I’m by no means a WHIZZ (see what I did there), so please take the below with a pinch of salt and an open mind.

I thought it would be interesting to share some insights into a little project I undertook looking at second hand price and volumes of Rolex sport watches. In particular the Rolex Submariner 14060M.

Now if you’re thinking that this was done for profiteering purposes, let me stop you right there. I will simply say that the below data is actually stating something that we already all knew. So no money making revelations here. All values have also been removed to keep the conversation cerebral and high level.

Ok now for the fun stuff:
- Scope: Data for the Rolex 14060M only
- Geography: Data from a Western European country. Not the UK.
- Source: Data from a Forum Sales Corner

MAIN FINDINGS
- Rolex 14060M prices are not correlated to the number of them for sale on the market
- Rolex 14060M prices have increased at 3.2% CAGR per year between 2012 and 2018
- Usually, the sharpest price increases happen in Q2&Q3 periods of the year
- Q2 2013
- Q2&Q3 2017
- Q3 2018

MAIN QUESTIONS (open to all of you)
- What external events drive the spikes and dips?
- Dip: Q4 2013
- Spike: Q4 2015 (happy Christmas year!)

Only forum prices. Data not from Chrono24.





Hope you find these interesting and look forward to your interpretation!

G


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[MartynJC (UK)]

1. I am wondering where you got the data?
2. Also - never seen a MRP price drop for a Rolex. Don’t follow the second graph at all!
3. No indices (vertical values) on the graphed - are they linear / logarithmic?

[gbn13]

Preowned prices of the 14060M the 6 year period following the introduction of 114060 that replaced it - data from Chrono24?

[davida]

1. I am wondering where you got the data?
2. Also - never seen a MRP price drop for a Rolex. Don’t follow the second graph at all!
3. No indices (vertical values) on the graphed - are they linear / logarithmic?

This watch was discontinued 2012 so I'm assuming the prices are second hand prices.

[Galaxia]

Thanks for the comments. Have cleared it up now.
Data from second hand 14060M models on SC of a forum.

1. I am wondering where you got the data?
2. Also - never seen a MRP price drop for a Rolex. Don’t follow the second graph at all!
3. No indices (vertical values) on the graphed - are they linear / logarithmic?

[Galaxia]

Preowned prices of the 14060M the 6 year period following the introduction of 114060 that replaced it - data from Chrono24?

No. Data is not from chrono24 as those are more grey dealer prices.
This is for second hand market prices like on our SC

[higham5]

Dont wish to be unkind to the detail of your work, but any graph with no value on the Y axis means nothing. You could be measuring the value of 14060m’s in bananas for all the graphs show.
A long time spent analysing data taught me to be sceptical

Steve

[Halitosis]

I believe the purpose of Galaxia's second graph is to show movements in the sales (or should we clarify such as advertised?) prices. Y axis values are not necessary to show the relative movements. That said, I don't imagine the Y axis base (i.e. at the x axis) is zero - such would suggest some large price variations!

However, I imagine quantities on the first graph's y axis are mostly single digits (maybe 2 sales in the first quarter and 1 sale in each of the next 2?) so condition on a small sample population will play a big part in prices (along with the presence of box & papers etc.)

By the way, thanks for your post Galaxia and I find it very interesting

[Mouse]

Dont wish to be unkind to the detail of your work, but any graph with no value on the Y axis means nothing. You could be measuring the value of 14060m’s in bananas for all the graphs show.
A long time spent analysing data taught me to be sceptical

Steve

In what is, potentially, a pretty dry thread, that really made me smile. Wondering what the three that I currently have in the fruit bowl would buy me

[Galaxia]

I’ll add the units but have intentionally removed the values.
Units implied in the titles though ;)

Dont wish to be unkind to the detail of your work, but any graph with no value on the Y axis means nothing. You could be measuring the value of 14060m’s in bananas for all the graphs show.
A long time spent analysing data taught me to be sceptical

Steve

[Galaxia]

I’ve showed you that supply/demand rules don’t apply with Rolex sport models. That’s pretty cool! (And not dry;))

In what is, potentially, a pretty dry thread, that really made me smile. Wondering what the three that I currently have in the fruit bowl would buy me

[Halitosis]

I’ve showed you that supply/demand rules don’t apply with Rolex sport models. That’s pretty cool! (And not dry;))

Have you though? Sorry to dampen your sterling work, but the sales corner of one watch forum is a very small part of the market for used 14060Ms, and although high availability in one quarter didn't cause prices to drop in your population, what if in that same quarter there were fewer than normal examples available on Ebay, Gumtree, Watchfinder etc etc.?

My only interpretation is that your stats bear-out the general trend of a gradually increasing price.

Were you collecting your data over those years, or have you recently looked back through historic pages of your data source?

[Galaxia]

Good comments.
I just scrapped the data.
It's one of the 2 main sales corners so fairly representative of the market.

Have you though? Sorry to dampen your sterling work, but the sales corner of one watch forum is a very small part of the market for used 14060Ms, and although high availability in one quarter didn't cause prices to drop in your population, what if in that same quarter there were fewer than normal examples available on Ebay, Gumtree, Watchfinder etc etc.?

My only interpretation is that your stats bear-out the general trend of a gradually increasing price.

Were you collecting your data over those years, or have you recently looked back through historic pages of your data source?

[Halitosis]

Please don't scrap your data based on my comments - what the hell do I know?!? There are likely far better contributors/analysts here that will pour scorn on my comments. Apologies if feedback has appeared negative

[KingKitega]

I think he means 'scraped'.

Doesn't chrono24 have a price chart history function?

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[Galaxia]

Yes sorry I meant “scraped”. Apologies!

Please don't scrap your data based on my comments - what the hell do I know?!? There are likely far better contributors/analysts here that will pour scorn on my comments. Apologies if feedback has appeared negative

[Galaxia]

I believe it does but chrono24 has inflated prices. So not really the prices we see on our kind of forums.

I think he means 'scraped'.

Doesn't chrono24 have a price chart history function?

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[Onelasttime]

What fresh hell is this?

[trick cyclist]

What fresh hell is this?

Took your time!

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[Raffe]

This is for second hand market prices like on our SC

Our SC? Given your joining date, you cannot access or even view SC. Who are you?


Edit: just realised you are the guy whose first ever post on the forum was a H&V, with another H&V following the next day. Top man.

[Kingstepper]

Our SC? Given your joining date, you cannot access or even view SC. Who are you?


Edit: just realised you are the guy whose first ever post on the forum was a H&V, with another H&V following the next day. Top man.

'Like' on SC, doesn't mean he's seen it.

[RAJEN]

I believe the purpose of Galaxia's second graph is to show movements in the sales (or should we clarify such as advertised?) prices. Y axis values are not necessary to show the relative movements. That said, I don't imagine the Y axis base (i.e. at the x axis) is zero - such would suggest some large price variations!

However, I imagine quantities on the first graph's y axis are mostly single digits (maybe 2 sales in the first quarter and 1 sale in each of the next 2?) so condition on a small sample population will play a big part in prices (along with the presence of box & papers etc.)

By the way, thanks for your post Galaxia and I find it very interesting

The scale on Y axis is important. The lowest value plotted might be 5000 and those fluctuations could reflect-25 dollars here and there. A very small sample size renders data practically useless too. But interesting to look at if that is your thing. Personally, I am not too much into Rolex prices/investment/residual talk.

[Mr Curta]

I like numbers but this isn't my idea of fun.

[Der Amf]

- Source: Data from a Forum Sales Corner

MAIN FINDINGS
- Rolex 14060M prices are not correlated to the number of them for sale on the market
- The depth of the water in the bath tub is not correlated to the number of toy boats floating on the surface
- Life is like a sewer: what you get out it depends very much on what you put into it (cf. Lehrer 1957)

[learningtofly]

Very good work, OP, and I look forward to some further watch sales analysis from you.

[Halitosis]

I think he means 'scraped'.

Yes sorry I meant “scraped”. Apologies!

Lol - scrap my previous comment

[Galaxia]

Thank you!

Any watch you’re particularly interested in?

Very good work, OP, and I look forward to some further watch sales analysis from you.

[ach5]

I apologise for replying without reading every reply (cardinal sin, I know - pushed for time), but Haywood Milton is the only authority on this. He analyses this in great detail and has all the numbers - he's done some amazing posts on this in the past. Good work OP though! I'd love to see this for all the 'big' watches to see if it tallies with what I sense from general forum reading.

[murkeywaters]

Good job for putting in the effort.

Personally I would like to see a monthly/bi-monthly report on all the big sport Rolex models like the price chart on Speedmaster 101, I regularly check it out and see if my reference has moved in price.

For it to be accurate though over so many reference’s it would need someone like Haywood or Mike Wood to over see it, could be a nightmare though if you start talking about MK1/2/3/4 dials, fat font bezels etc etc...

[Galaxia]

Thank you for the comment.

Yes, that would be possible with watches that are traded frequently. Would be fun to build that for Rolex sport models though, looking at the overall pictures, we all know where prices are going...!

Gathering extra detail such as dial versions or picture based assessments gets increasingly difficult, though not impossible.

And yes, it would be good to have the "grand fromages" of the Rolex world to supervise the assumptions ;)

Good job for putting in the effort.

Personally I would like to see a monthly/bi-monthly report on all the big sport Rolex models like the price chart on Speedmaster 101, I regularly check it out and see if my reference has moved in price.

For it to be accurate though over so many reference’s it would need someone like Haywood or Mike Wood to over see it, could be a nightmare though if you start talking about MK1/2/3/4 dials, fat font bezels etc etc...