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Thread: Boeing 737 Max ?

  1. #51
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 33JS View Post
    You know if you posted that statement in the BP youd have an avalanche of facts and figures tossed at you!!
    Iím sure the usual Ďexpertsí will be along although some are probably busy with electrical problems. ;-)
    Fast is fine, but accuracy is everything.

  2. #52
    Grand Master PickleB's Avatar
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    Why the Max 8 has the MCAS:




    Probable problem (Ethiopian flight):


  3. #53
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    U.S. authorities have extracted $25 billion in fines, penalties and restitution from VW for the 580,000 tainted diesels it sold in the U.S.

    I hate to think what sort of fine will be slapped on Boeing for killing 198 people aboard of Lion Air and 157 people in Ethiopian Airlines crash..
    BREXIT: If not a single county, apart of Mauritania, trade under WTO rules, why this organisation even exists and 164 nations out of 193 decided to be voluntary bound by its rules?

  4. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by VDG View Post
    U.S. authorities have extracted $25 billion in fines, penalties and restitution from VW for the 580,000 tainted diesels it sold in the U.S.

    I hate to think what sort of fine will be slapped on Boeing for killing 198 people aboard of Lion Air and 157 people in Ethiopian Airlines crash..
    Ah but the difference is Boeing is a US company. I doubt any fine and compensation will exceed a billion

  5. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by VDG View Post
    U.S. authorities have extracted $25 billion in fines, penalties and restitution from VW for the 580,000 tainted diesels it sold in the U.S.

    I hate to think what sort of fine will be slapped on Boeing for killing 198 people aboard of Lion Air and 157 people in Ethiopian Airlines crash..
    Boeing is a key US business......so I doubt that the US will fine it at all. Furthermore, VW actively sought to defeat tests (by accounts), and no-one is suggesting that Boeing tried to hide potential failures, so the company's actions were not exactly comparable. I do, however, think the cosy relationship between the FAA and Boeing will be looked at rather closely, and rightly so; independent certification should be exactly that..... The failure of a sensor causing the pilots to lose control of their aircraft (if that is proven to be the cause) shows a complete failure to carry out appropriate risk analsis.

    Failures in stall warning systems are not that uncommon - a very good friend of mine, who often flew with me, was killed by a relatively-inexperienced pilot who reacted wrongly to such a warning many years ago. The loss of an almost completely serviceable aircraft (bar the AOA sensor) was the result....

    Unfortunately, the Boeing (as yet to be proven) fault put any recovery beyond the capabilities of even experienced pilots (by the sound of things).

    We really should wait for the official reports to emerge before any judgement.....

  6. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by VDG View Post
    U.S. authorities have extracted $25 billion in fines, penalties and restitution from VW for the 580,000 tainted diesels it sold in the U.S.

    I hate to think what sort of fine will be slapped on Boeing for killing 198 people aboard of Lion Air and 157 people in Ethiopian Airlines crash..
    It's a US company, therefore they'll blame some young intern, then say it's job done.
    If it was Airbus, they'd be baying for blood

  7. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sean89 View Post
    Ah but the difference is Boeing is a US company. I doubt any fine and compensation will exceed a billion
    I have a sneaking feeling that a life is 'valued' at around £1M..........in airline eyes (from dim and distant memory).

  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Man of Kent View Post
    It's a US company, therefore they'll blame some young intern, then say it's job done.
    If it was Airbus, they'd be baying for blood
    Interns are not responsible for signing off risk analyses. The finger will be pointed far higher (if the problem is as we suspect).

  9. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sean89 View Post
    Ah but the difference is Boeing is a US company. I doubt any fine and compensation will exceed a billion
    Exactly! How much did Union Carbide pay out for the Bhopal disaster? Wikipedia says $470m. It says "A government affidavit in 2006 stated that the leak caused 558,125 injuries, including 38,478 temporary partial injuries and approximately 3,900 severely and permanently disabling injuries." Other sources suggest up to 15,000 deaths attributable in the years since.

    Following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill "BP agreed to pay $18.7 billion in fines, the largest corporate settlement in U.S. history". It's not clear if that's included in "criminal and civil settlements and payments to a trust fund [that] cost the company $42.2 billion". The human casualties were ‎11 people killed and 17 people injured.

  10. #60
    Grand Master Chris_in_the_UK's Avatar
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    A variant of an aircraft that was rushed to market with a compromise for flight dynamics that failed. Inadequate maintenance staff and pilot flight training.

    Will never fly the series of aircraft for the foreseeable.
    When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........

  11. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris_in_the_UK View Post
    A variant of an aircraft that was rushed to market with a compromise for flight dynamics that failed. Inadequate maintenance staff and pilot flight training.

    Will never fly the series of aircraft for the foreseeable.
    What exactly are you blaming maintenance staff for?

    The problem seems to me to be stretching the limits of an existing design beyond those limits therefore having to create a cludge to meet stability requirements, intentionally designing the cludge in such a basic way that it doesn't require further training (i.e. having only single AoA feed to the MCAS software cludge) then hiding the MCAS cludge from pilots to also meet the "no additional training" requirements.

    Not seeing a lot of maintenance culpability here. Maybe manufacturing/QA of the AoA vanes/sensor but maintenance?

    Stuff can and will go wrong on a plane. If it's critical, it's duplicated. What was designed here was a system that with out-of-limits input (bad data from the AoA sensor) from a single source decided to act on the bad data anyway, persistently act in a more agressive manner than had been declared and essentially drive the aircraft into the ground.

    Admittedly, in the second incident the pilots let the plane overspeed which did not help their situation at all but with the cacophony in the cockpit of stick-shaker, stall warning horn and unreliable airspeed indicators it's not exactly surprising.

    It would seem the aircraft was fundamentally unsafe. It's touch-and-go whether Boeing will survive this incident, in my opinion. I'm glad I don't hold any of their stock.

  12. #62
    Grand Master Chris_in_the_UK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by catch21 View Post
    What exactly are you blaming maintenance staff for?
    I take it you did not watch the videos?.

    The issue reported by Lionair was not resolved as maintenance staff were not fully conversant with the AoA systems - likely they were not aware/trained.
    When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........

  13. #63
    Grand Master PickleB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris_in_the_UK View Post
    I take it you did not watch the videos?.

    The issue reported by Lionair was not resolved as maintenance staff were not fully conversant with the AoA systems - likely they were not aware/trained.
    With whom are you disagreeing?

  14. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris_in_the_UK View Post
    I take it you did not watch the videos?.

    The issue reported by Lionair was not resolved as maintenance staff were not fully conversant with the AoA systems - likely they were not aware/trained.
    Ok. The issue with fault reporting, operations and maintenance and the responsibility for the serviceability of the specific aircraft are interesting yes, but I ask you a question. If an AoA vane (presumably the LH one) was faulty on a 737-NG and not replaced while on the ground, would that have caused the NG to crash on the next flight? No, it wouldn't. Further to that, two working AoA units is not MEL:

    http://fsims.faa.gov/wdocs/mmel/b-737_rev%2057.pdf

    page 52 shows to my reading only one AoA vane unit needed before despatch.

    At which point you wouldn't expect a single failed unit to have the capability to drive the plane into the ground. You expect a more robust design than that.
    Last edited by catch21; 10th April 2019 at 13:42.

  15. #65
    Grand Master Chris_in_the_UK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by catch21 View Post
    You expect a more robust design than that.
    Of course.
    When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........

  16. #66
    Grand Master Chris_in_the_UK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PickleB View Post
    With whom are you disagreeing?
    Not you sir, it was in response to the Q about my comment in relation to maintenance staff.
    When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........

  17. #67
    Grand Master PickleB's Avatar
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    Some background...Vox link.

  18. #68
    Grand Master Chris_in_the_UK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PickleB View Post
    Some background...Vox link.
    Wow.

    Also been a few bits in the press relating to QA standards during builds.
    When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........

  19. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by PickleB View Post
    Some background...Vox link.
    A really good article, at least in my fairly uninformed eyes.

  20. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by PickleB View Post
    Some background...Vox link.
    That's a good article, I also read a very insightful article in the Observer a couple of weeks ago with a similar view. The US is pro-business/anti-regulation which has created an environment where companies effectivley self regulate. Ok when it only effects US citizens but when the largest plane manufacturer in the world gets to decide what does or does not need to go through an extensive test & approval process, as Boeing has done with the Max, we now find the entire global aviation industry caight up in the US Govs lax approach. Boeing knew that getting the plane approved through proper regluatory processes would be long and arduous with the potential to fail. The loss of large orders to Airbus drove them to take shortcuts to release the Max quickly.

    Boeing deserves the reputational damage and loss of sales that result from this decision as it was a clear example of corporate arrogance & greed. It will take a long time to recover its market position.

  21. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by mondie View Post
    Boeing deserves the reputational damage and loss of sales that result from this decision as it was a clear example of corporate arrogance & greed. It will take a long time to recover its market position.
    Will it? Great article but it does seem that they are still in patching it up mode rather than stepping back and looking at the larger picture?

  22. #72
    Also a good read, with more on the airworthiness of the 'plane itself...

    https://spectrum.ieee.org/aerospace/...ware-developer

  23. #73
    Master mondie's Avatar
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    This is the article I was referring to:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...porate-america

    The article questions whether this may be a turning point for free-market economics. The scrutiny that airlines will place Boeing under will increase after this scandal and so it should.

  24. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Broussard View Post
    Also a good read, with more on the airworthiness of the 'plane itself...

    https://spectrum.ieee.org/aerospace/...ware-developer
    Thanks for that. I was particularly struck by:

    ...As a lifetime member of the software development fraternity, I donít know what toxic combination of inexperience, hubris, or lack of cultural understanding led to this mistake.

    But I do know that itís indicative of a much deeper problem. The people who wrote the code for the original MCAS system were obviously terribly far out of their league and did not know it. How can they can implement a software fix, much less give us any comfort that the rest of the flight management software is reliable?...

  25. #75
    Grand Master PickleB's Avatar
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    Wiki...Return to Service:

    International agreements allow for aviation regulatory agencies worldwide to certify an aircraft type based on the certification of the regulatory agency where the aircraft is built, and do not review those certifications in much detail. In this case the Boeing 737 MAX series is certified by the United States FAA, and a return to service locally and internationally requires updated certification by the FAA first. The European Aviation Safety Agency and Transport Canada announced they will do their own safety verifications before letting the 737 MAX fly again in their territories, and will no longer accept the United States FAA certification as is for this aircraft. Around March 20, 2019, Boeing announced it would make an additional safety feature on the plane model standard.

    The FAA seeks consensus with other regulators to approve the return to service, to avoid suspicion of collusion with Boeing. On April 1, 2019, FAA said Boeingís software fix for 737 MAX is still weeks away from delivery to FAA. This is an updated statement as Boeing previously told the public it is awaiting certification on the new software by the end of March.

    On April 11, Boeing CEO Dennis Mullenburg said that the 737 MAX had completed 96 test flights with the new updated software. The software fix is expected to be delivered to the FAA "within the next two weeks."

    For fleet scheduling and flight booking purposes, Southwest and American Airlines expect the 737 MAX to remain grounded (and flights canceled) through August 2019.


    I wonder how the CAA will cope post-Brexit...should it happen.

  26. #76
    Grand Master PickleB's Avatar
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    The denial continues...link:

    Boeing's boss has refused to admit that a system introduced in its 737 Max 8 aircraft was flawed following two fatal plane crashes.

    Appearing in front of investors and the media, Dennis Muilenburg maintained the system was only one factor in a chain of events that led to the disasters.

    But new reports have raised fresh questions about the plane's safety.

    It has emerged that whistleblowers connected to Boeing contacted the US airline regulator about the system...

  27. #77
    Thanks for that!

    It's tempting to say "they don't have any choice" but thinking a bit more about this they do. It's "legal" driving that statement. I should think "financial" have already crunched the figures and they know they're toast. The reputational damage is immense. This isn't VW fiddling a few tests. Buy a different make for a while and in a few years it will have gone away. This is way bigger than that.

    Boeing have two strategies, come clean on this whole thing and hope people are sympathetic, or remain in denial. The odds aren't looking good for coming clean. This length of time after the accident to make a formal "denial" statement, in the face of everything else we now know, has made the company strategy very clear.

    Sure there is a counter-argument that basic flying skils, attitude/power, could have saved the day but it still didn't in two separate cases. Automation-dependence is clearly a double-edged sword. Airbus seem to have transitioned into the world of automation successfully. Boeing's attempt at flight-envelope protection on a sub-optimal design has been less so. This shouldn't need a regulator to spot a fudged system. It was about money, about flying under the radar of additional training. It was a crackers implementation, what were Boeing thinking of?

    The whistleblowing allegations will be very interesting to follow, what was said to who and what did they do about it.

    Personally I think this will hit Boeing so hard financially that they won't survive in the present form.

  28. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris_in_the_UK View Post
    A variant of an aircraft that was rushed to market with a compromise for flight dynamics that failed. Inadequate maintenance staff and pilot flight training.

    Will never fly the series of aircraft for the foreseeable.
    How will you avoid flying on it Chris?
    We all know it's grounded at the moment, presumably you meant after the flying ban was lifted.
    Do you work for an airline? If not, how will you know what aircraft will be allocated to a given route when you buy your (let's say for the sake of argument, package holiday) tickets?

    Are you saying that you wouldn't buy any airline ticket / package holiday? That you are able to tell before you buy your ticket which aircraft will be allocated to the flight? Or that you'd buy the ticket and then not walk down the ramp when you see a MAX parked up at the gate?

    I understand your emotion, but unless you work for an airline, or have a way of predicting aircraft type that will fly your route, I don't understand how what your saying is practicable.

  29. #79
    Grand Master Neil.C's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikeveal View Post
    How will you avoid flying on it Chris?
    We all know it's grounded at the moment, presumably you meant after the flying ban was lifted.
    Do you work for an airline? If not, how will you know what aircraft will be allocated to a given route when you buy your (let's say for the sake of argument, package holiday) tickets?

    Are you saying that you wouldn't buy any airline ticket / package holiday? That you are able to tell before you buy your ticket which aircraft will be allocated to the flight? Or that you'd buy the ticket and then not walk down the ramp when you see a MAX parked up at the gate?

    I understand your emotion, but unless you work for an airline, or have a way of predicting aircraft type that will fly your route, I don't understand how what your saying is practicable.

    Well I only ever fly transatlantic so it is certainly practicable for me not to fly a 737 Max.
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  30. #80
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    I only fly British Airways. Fairly sure their only 737 Max is in South Africa (ComAir) and if I was on the flight between JNB at CPT Iíd decline to travel.

  31. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by Neil.C View Post
    Well I only ever fly transatlantic so it is certainly practicable for me not to fly a 737 Max.
    Apparently the Max 8 does fly transatlantic, all be it only with Norwegian.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chalet View Post
    I only fly British Airways. Fairly sure their only 737 Max is in South Africa (ComAir) and if I was on the flight between JNB at CPT Iíd decline to travel.
    You may only book BA, but that does not mean you'll always fly BA. BA code share flights with AA and AA have plenty of 737 Max aircraft.

    Short of declining to travel at the gate, or accepting that you won't fly short haul, I still can't see how as a passenger you avoid any aircraft type.

  32. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chalet View Post
    I only fly British Airways. Fairly sure their only 737 Max is in South Africa (ComAir) and if I was on the flight between JNB at CPT Iíd decline to travel.
    That has been taken out of service. (They only have 1)

  33. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikeveal View Post
    Apparently the Max 8 does fly transatlantic, all be it only with Norwegian.


    .
    Blimey, does it really?

    I only use Virgin from my local airport (lgw) and it's all 747's.
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  34. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikeveal View Post
    How will you avoid flying on it Chris?

    I understand your emotion, but unless you work for an airline, or have a way of predicting aircraft type that will fly your route, I don't understand how what your saying is practicable.
    Not that difficult ATM (obviously) as they are all grounded!.

    Moving forward, if you use SeatGuru for a given flight on a given date it will identify the likely aircraft for the flight - sometimes it is only one, sometimes there are a number of likely candidates. Our current travel pattern will likely keep us away from them for the short term.
    When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........

  35. #85
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    I fly a considerable amount and have flown this aircraft a number of times (including transatlantic). Itís actually pretty easy to avoid travelling them if thatís what you wish. You can never be 100% certain because late aircraft swaps (and further out schedule changes) sometimes happen, but all the info is out there to avoid specific aircraft if you feel strongly about it.

    I have a number of bookings scheduled for 737-max aircraft in 2019. Iím watching Boeingís progress with interest!

  36. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikeveal View Post
    Apparently the Max 8 does fly transatlantic, all be it only with Norwegian.
    Air Canada also fly the aircraft into Heathrow from the east coast; unfortunately a regular route for me!

  37. #87
    TBH I think you have absolutely nothing to worry about now. Even with unmodified ones, even if they might have struggled a bit before the cat is so far out of the bag that no one sitting up front will have a moment's doubt what's going on and how to deal with it now.

    I understand the mods include AoA Disagree annunciator and single action rather than repetitive actions from MCAS.

  38. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by Chris_in_the_UK View Post
    Not that difficult ATM (obviously) as they are all grounded!.

    Moving forward, if you use SeatGuru for a given flight on a given date it will identify the likely aircraft for the flight - sometimes it is only one, sometimes there are a number of likely candidates. Our current travel pattern will likely keep us away from them for the short term.
    I stand corrected, wasn't aware of SeatGuru. Thanks for setting me straight.

  39. #89
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    https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/2/18...error-mcas-faa

    Worth reading if you want to understand what really happened and the reasons behind the crashes, it provides a lot of the internal background to the article I posted up thread.

    The Lion Air aircraft problem the day before the crash is very important and was news to me. Boeing has to be in very dire trouble after this, they have learnt from Trump on how to lie but I am not sure they will get away with it quite as effectivley as he. The breach of trust with pilots and airlines is quite staggering.

  40. #90

    Boeing 737 Max ?

    Quote Originally Posted by mondie View Post
    https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/2/18...error-mcas-faa

    Worth reading if you want to understand what really happened and the reasons behind the crashes, it provides a lot of the internal background to the article I posted up thread.

    The Lion Air aircraft problem the day before the crash is very important and was news to me. Boeing has to be in very dire trouble after this, they have learnt from Trump on how to lie but I am not sure they will get away with it quite as effectivley as he. The breach of trust with pilots and airlines is quite staggering.
    That Lion Air didnít act after the first incident is very damning for them let alone Boeing.

  41. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    That Lion Air didnít act after the first incident is very damning for them let alone Boeing.
    What more could Lion Air have done? The aircraft was inspected in accordance with the manufacturer's manual but the fault could not be duplicated. I don't think that they can be expected to have been aware of the intricacies of Boeing's software fudge...see the second video at #52.

  42. #92
    In the two recent MAX accidents it seems one aircraft was lost because the crew didn't operate the Stab Trim Cutout switches and the other was lost because they did operate the Stab Trim Cutout switches (and therefore couldn't manual trim anymore).

    You might argue that this is basic stuff and they should have known the 'right moment' to operate the switches. With warnings and cautions and stick shakers and unreliable indications as well as the determination of the aircraft to head downwards, I think we could safely say we're headed towards a task overload situation.

  43. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by PickleB View Post
    What more could Lion Air have done? The aircraft was inspected in accordance with the manufacturer's manual but the fault could not be duplicated. I don't think that they can be expected to have been aware of the intricacies of Boeing's software fudge...see the second video at #52.
    Did the crew of the crashed one know about the previous incident and how dealt with?

  44. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    Did the crew of the crashed one know about the previous incident and how dealt with?
    Those are good questions. I'd presume that the defects log showing the report of a fault and an attempt at remediation were available to the next crew. But I don't know quite what detail of the previous crew's actions it would show. I'd be interested to hear from any commercial pilot about much notice the second crew would take of the reported anomaly after it had been investigated in accordance with the maintenance procedures.

  45. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by catch21 View Post
    In the two recent MAX accidents it seems one aircraft was lost because the crew didn't operate the Stab Trim Cutout switches and the other was lost because they did operate the Stab Trim Cutout switches (and therefore couldn't manual trim anymore).

    You might argue that this is basic stuff and they should have known the 'right moment' to operate the switches. With warnings and cautions and stick shakers and unreliable indications as well as the determination of the aircraft to head downwards, I think we could safely say we're headed towards a task overload situation.
    Iíve flown plenty of aircraft but never a commercial airline, is there not a way to deactivate the auto elements and take pure manual control of these aircraft?

    In an emergency surely the primary concern of the crew is to fly the aircraft? That is obviously difficult if youíre fighting against the aircraft itself which is also trying to Ďflyí the aircraft!

  46. #96
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    Fly by wire, so probably not.
    Don't take my silence for agreement. I've just realised you're too stupid to argue with.

  47. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saint-Just View Post
    Fly by wire, so probably not.
    Aren't all commercial planes like this now?
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  48. #98
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    I think all Airbus planes are fly by wire, but these not. Boeing have always kept a mechanical connection twixt pilot and surfaces. The problem her was that the manual effort on the pilot-operated control surfaces on the wings is simply not enough to defeat the much larger tail surface which remains in the hands of the MCAS system, even when at fault.
    The Ethiopian plane had the pilots trying with all their might, but even with the tail powered down and not actively opposing them, they still had no means at their disposal to defeat the enormous tail forcing them to dive.
    As usual with these things there are a lot of contributory factors, the problem is that most of them (in this case) lie at Boeing's door.
    It seems that the only exception is the FAA's lamentable lack of true oversight into the design compromises and software fudges that they should have used.
    I think the FAA is also in danger of losing its status over this affair, with some non-US Aviation authorities possibly intent on testing every Boeing new design, rather than taking the FAA's word for their air worthiness.

  49. #99
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    Who knew we have so many latent air crash investigators and aviation/aerospace experts on the forum.

    BREXIT: If not a single county, apart of Mauritania, trade under WTO rules, why this organisation even exists and 164 nations out of 193 decided to be voluntary bound by its rules?

  50. #100
    Apparently Boeing knew about the problem earlier than they have previously admitted, according to the Beeb. Referring to the article's mention of the "Angle of Attack (AOA) Disagree alert" I must say this passage puzzles me:

    The planemaker said it had intended to provide the feature as standard, but did not realise until deliveries had begun that it was only available if airlines purchased an optional indicator.
    Are they suggesting that the left hand doesn't know what the right hand was doing? Whatever, it's looking pretty bad for Boeing.

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