I posted a while back for advise on a vintage purchase I've been considering. I've been watching the market for a while now, and am as confused as ever, particularly with regard to pricing. The watch I'm after is a Tudor blue snowflake sub, most probably a 9401(0) or 9411(0), I've no real preference regarding date window.

My confusion stems from the huge range of pricing for these. On chrono 24 it seems decent examples can be had for around the $9-10k mark, while military versions head north of $20k. However, on forums recently, I've seen a fewf private sales for non military ones in the region of $16k, with nothing to set them apart from the ones around the $9K mark, as best I can see. They all appear to be legit (and I've picked up just enough knowledge on these now to spot some poor to middling fakes), of a similar quality - cases, hands/dials, lume ageing, movement condition etc.

My question is this - am I missing something? Is there something that might be setting them apart? What's the best approach to develop a concept of what the sensible range of prices for a model of vintage watch is?

Thanks!