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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #1
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    At some point, this coronavirus-driven financial crisis will bottom out and rebound - - perhaps very quickly. I say this because this crash is an "artificial" one, caused by an outside factor, not an inherent problem(s) in the world economy (although some will argue that point). I believe the underlying Western economies are relatively sound fundamentally, and that they will be poised to recover from the impact of the CV in a reasonably short amount of time.

    It will be very important for serious investors to:

    • Watch for signs that the bloodbath is over (at least mostly)
    • Be prepared to trigger a thoughtful investment plan at a moments notice

    For those of you who consider yourselves to be "serious investors," I welcome you to enter a discussion on these topics of the timing of the market bottom, and the best places to invest our funds.

    As an example, the Transportation sector has taken a heavy beating in stock prices, particularly the large airlines and hotel/resort chains. I see that as a real opportunity when I think the bottom is near. Everyone I know has canceled their travel plans, both pleasure and business, for the next six months. Most sports and entertainment events have either been canceled or postponed. I believe there will be a huge pent-up demand for travel after the CV scare passes, and we'll see those stocks rise rapidly. Do you disagree? Let's discuss. What other CV-caused changes will drive demands for products or services post-CV?

    What are your investment thoughts as we approach the bottom?


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    The Co-op.
    Last edited by Skyman; 13th March 2020 at 20:34.

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    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Great thread, I was thinking of posting a similar thing.

    Banks are going to be tempting, but Iím of the thought now itís the banks that will be bailing out the country, so will bank shares take a long time to recover?

    As you say travel based shares should shoot up when the good feeling is back, but when that is who knows?

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    Master MartynJC (UK)'s Avatar
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    I suggest Tracker Funds - which are low cost, you can hedge by tracking different sectors.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MartynJC (UK) View Post
    I suggest Tracker Funds - which are low cost, you can hedge by tracking different sectors.
    Hardly cutting edge investment strategy.

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    Master MartynJC (UK)'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyman View Post
    Hardly cutting edge investment strategy.
    . He was asking for a thoughtful strategy - that is my thought.

    i would suggest Tech Companies tracker.
    Last edited by MartynJC (UK); 13th March 2020 at 21:18.

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    I canít see anyone could answer that without full understanding of existing assets, lifestyle and objectives.

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    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    I canít see anyone could answer that without full understanding of existing assets, lifestyle and objectives.
    I think a lot of investors will be looking at this situation as a way to "buy low" and ride the wave back up to make some relatively easy profits, regardless of your assets, lifestyle, etc.

    For example, American Airlines stock has traded at a 12-month high of $35. One month ago it was trading at $29. Today it closed at $14. In the near future, I'm going to be all over that stock, unless others drive it up before I make my decision.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    I think a lot of investors will be looking at this situation as a way to "buy low" and ride the wave back up to make some relatively easy profits, regardless of your assets, lifestyle, etc.

    For example, American Airlines stock has traded at a 12-month high of $35. One month ago it was trading at $29. Today it closed at $14. In the near future, I'm going to be all over that stock, unless others drive it up before I make my decision.
    Well done you. Do they do young girls too? Asking for a friend.

  10. #10
    Just because it was once high doesn't mean it's going to go back up. Have a look at INTU shares over the last five years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    I think a lot of investors will be looking at this situation as a way to "buy low" and ride the wave back up to make some relatively easy profits, regardless of your assets, lifestyle, etc.

    For example, American Airlines stock has traded at a 12-month high of $35. One month ago it was trading at $29. Today it closed at $14. In the near future, I'm going to be all over that stock, unless others drive it up before I make my decision.
    Get in there PC don't lose first comers advantage, fortune favours the brave, just do it. etc.

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    I'm not sure about travel. Cruises will be tarnished for a long time to come as floating bio-farms . Some airlines will be gone. Companies who are forced to video conference may never change back.

    If you're looking for recovery then long term oil may be decent. Oil is down not only due to Corvid but Saudi fecking around and over supplying to force Russia and the US to cut back. There's a double recovery position with big oil...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Get in there PC don't lose first comers advantage, fortune favours the brave, just do it. etc.
    With underage girls naturally.

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    Microsoft


    .

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyman View Post
    With underage girls naturally.
    U wot m8?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    U wot m8?
    OP has an alternative interest elsewhere on the forum.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyman View Post
    With underage girls naturally.
    I would invest in you should you choose to become a comedian


    (this is a joke)

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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    I think a lot of investors will be looking at this situation as a way to "buy low" and ride the wave back up to make some relatively easy profits, regardless of your assets, lifestyle, etc.

    For example, American Airlines stock has traded at a 12-month high of $35. One month ago it was trading at $29. Today it closed at $14. In the near future, I'm going to be all over that stock, unless others drive it up before I make my decision.
    Worth bearing in mind that the strategy is for 70% or 80% of us to get ill with the virus and recover over the next few winters, thus building herd imunity. Once this is widely understood, I can forsee a medium term reduction in the attaction of sharing a metal container, of any sort, with people you don't know. Auto makers specialising in comfortable cars would be my bet.
    Last edited by raysablade; 13th March 2020 at 22:29.

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    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by raysablade View Post
    Worth bearing in mind that the strategy is for 70% or 80% of us to get ill with the virus and recover over the next few winters, thus building herd imunity. Once this is widely understood, I can forsee a medium term reduction in the attaction of sharing a metal container, of any sort, with people you don't know. Auto makers specialising in comfortable cars would be my bet.
    Hmm...I wonder if this will have any effect on Uber and Lyft. How many infected people have sat in those same seats today?

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    Generally when people trying to find the bottom all they end up with is a smelly finger! Joking aside no one can ever know as this is totally unknown territory. Plus people tend to forget about the past. In the 2008 crash we were weeks away from total global meltdown - when the US decided against bailing out Lehman Brothers we were close to the brink. They then bailed out other firms, the U.K. backed the banks, Buffet went heavy into GS etc etc and the world once again recovered. Weíre still actually recovering from that time but people donít acknowledge it.

    Human nature and determination is such that we will get through this and the markets will recover. Personally Iíd drip feed in your money slowly - 1 quarter, one fifth or one tenth at a time depending on your appetite for risk. Iíd also pick a multi asset class investments for diversification and probably 3 or 4 fund managers for even more of a spread - past performance has currently gone out of the window so the more spread the more safety.

    And I wouldnít pick individual stocks as who knows whether they will survive. If you are going to do that pick 10 and spread your risk. Companies like Carnival and TUI have been destroyed on the stock market, they could be great investments. They could go bust.

    More importantly only invest if you can sleep at night. The potential gains just arenít worth the worries if it affects you.

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    Invest in your health, and your friends and family. They are likely to produce better returns.

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    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Interesting analysis on marketwatch.com Friday:


    Where does the stock market go from here after the worst drop since 1987? Hereís what the analyst who called the 2018 rout says

    Published: March 13, 2020 at 4:54 p.m. ET By Mark DeCambre



    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wh...?mod=home-page


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    British Airways - get on it with everything you got!













    Actually donít...

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    Iím thinking Far East as they will hopefully get over this first.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Allthingsblue View Post
    This is going to happen again, so I would say invest in toilet roll manufacturers.
    They're going down the pan.......

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    Netflix and Disney both been hammered.

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    This 👍 is the best investment one can make


    Quote Originally Posted by Templogin View Post
    Invest in your health, and your friends and family. They are likely to produce better returns.

  28. #28
    Having worked in the sector for nearly 20 years, I would fall back on an old saying...listen to everyone, trust no-one. A 'serious investor' (to quote the OP) is not necessarily a wise one ;).

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    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kozza6 View Post
    Having worked in the sector for nearly 20 years, I would fall back on an old saying...listen to everyone, trust no-one. A 'serious investor' (to quote the OP) is not necessarily a wise one ;).
    I'll second that motion!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Templogin View Post
    Invest in your health, and your friends and family. They are likely to produce better returns.
    This..


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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    Iím thinking Far East as they will hopefully get over this first.
    I think there is a fair chance of this.
    Until the next one.

  32. #32
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    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    I cashed in the lion share of my sipp funds about twelve days ago to transfer from HL to Vanguard with the intention of buying back into the LS80 (with lower fees).

    The cash transfer has ages taken but it means most of my money has been out of the market and therefore not affected by the majority of the market drop.

    Vanguard allows me to buy into their funds or ETF, not sure what to do.

    Sticking with my original approach of LS80 or even LS100 seems less risky but with slower growth.


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    Last edited by T1ckT0ck; 14th March 2020 at 09:49.

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    I'm taking a medium term view on Citrix; as working from home becomes more prevalent and companies invest in the architecture to support this should see solid growth in this area.

    Otherwise there are plenty of rebound stocks to keep track of, airlines, restaurants etc. Those that survive will likely see meteoric rises if this blows over.

  34. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by T1ckT0ck View Post
    I cashed in the lion share of my sipp funds about twelve days ago to transfer from HL to Vanguard with the intention of buying back into the LS80 (with lower fees).

    The cash transfer has ages taken but it means most of my money has been out of the market and therefore not affected by the majority of the market drop.

    Vanguard allows me to buy into their funds or ETF, not sure what to do.

    Sticking with my original approach of LS80 or even LS100 seems less risky but with slower growth.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I cashed out of mine also some weeks back and just sitting on cash. Have saved myself a not insignificant amount of money with the timing also and going to mostly sit tight on the bulk of the cash for the time being. We are not at the bottom of the market by a long shot, imo.

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    I do think markets are presenting great opportunities to invest in the medium/long term, but being no expert - just going to buy ETF trackers in small chunks over the next few weeks/months.

  36. #36
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Little risky this approach, I'm tempted to buy blue chip shares in the right sector with the intention of buying/selling over small percentage moves, plenty of solid shares that are going up/down by 3-5%, if your investment for some reason drops too much you should have the safety of a large stable company that will come back in the medium to long term.

    Its also much easier now with trading apps, plus I work from home so can watch it very closely..

  37. #37
    Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    I'm leaving my investments in mostly index trackers and drip feeding into that and funds like Fundsmith, Lindsell Train etc each month. Yeah it may go down a lot more but I'm taking a 20 year view and I'll be putting a lot more in over the next 20 years than what I currently have so I'll just try not to look at the carnage at the moment and thing about the future

  38. #38
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    One part of successful investing is knowing when to take a holiday. The chances are most stuff will continue going down in price for 6 months or so, so stick it in a bank and earn your quarter of one per cent. The time to make decent money is when certainty starts to come back. Time to relax.

  39. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Templogin View Post
    Invest in your health, and your friends and family. They are likely to produce better returns.
    Absolutely. The more you have, the more you want mentality around here is becoming somewhat wearisome. All I want at this point is to know that family and friends - the older folks, the ones with compromised immune systems following cancer and other medical treatments - survive the coming weeks and months unscathed. All the money in the world counts for nothing when youíre faced with the loss of loved ones.

  40. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    One part of successful investing is knowing when to take a holiday. The chances are most stuff will continue going down in price for 6 months or so, so stick it in a bank and earn your quarter of one per cent. The time to make decent money is when certainty starts to come back. Time to relax.
    I doubt that most stuff will go down for the next 6 months. Some clearly bottomed out and have bounced back up somewhat already.

    Vulnerable companies and industries have and will continue to suffer in the short term, or some possibly no long exist.

    No one has a crystal ball - but informed decisions, and or personal risk parameters can be taken into account and acted on accordingly.
    It's just a matter of time...

  41. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I'm leaving my investments in mostly index trackers and drip feeding into that and funds like Fundsmith, Lindsell Train etc each month. Yeah it may go down a lot more but I'm taking a 20 year view and I'll be putting a lot more in over the next 20 years than what I currently have so I'll just try not to look at the carnage at the moment and thing about the future
    +1

    While the short term may present opportunities I invest for the long term / value.


    Do need to find a good S&p tracker - any ideas.

  42. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omegamanic View Post
    I doubt that most stuff will go down for the next 6 months. Some clearly bottomed out and have bounced back up somewhat already.

    Vulnerable companies and industries have and will continue to suffer in the short term, or some possibly no long exist.

    No one has a crystal ball - but informed decisions, and or personal risk parameters can be taken into account and acted on accordingly.
    The truth is that absolutely no one really knows the answer to that. This is not not a financial market crash in the true sense, it is a crash due to the uncertainty of globalisation. Can a retailer sell a product in a few months time when a bit of it is made in China, another bit in Mexico and another bit from Korea. No one knows how long it will take for normal business to resume and even if companies can survive in the meantime. The pandemic may last but a few months but the effects in the long term are still guessable.

    To say that the market has clearly bottomed out is a bit blaise. It will undoubtably bounce up and will probably bounce back up with a vengeance once supply chains are re established but the timing is far from certain.

  43. #43
    You don't have the single worst day of trading since Oct 1987 and then that's, the bottom was found, back to normal (for some companies).

    The charts are like a bouncing ball going down a set of stairs right now.

  44. #44
    I suggest everyone to read this Bloomberg article about the trading volumes - "Another Day, Another $2 Trillion Has Stock Traders Shuddering"

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...er-what-s-next

  45. #45

  46. #46
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    The truth is that absolutely no one really knows the answer to that.............
    Where are you at the moment Mick, in the UK or locked up in Spain?

  47. #47
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    I suggest everyone to read this Bloomberg article about the trading volumes - "Another Day, Another $2 Trillion Has Stock Traders Shuddering"

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...er-what-s-next
    Interesting, the last paragraph certainly adds some uncertainty -

    "Thatís a good thing because itís telling you that weíre reaching a panic level. And we always like to say: Try to look for peak panic. Have we gotten there yet? Maybe not yet.Ē

  48. #48
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    One part of successful investing is knowing when to take a holiday. The chances are most stuff will continue going down in price for 6 months or so, so stick it in a bank and earn your quarter of one per cent. The time to make decent money is when certainty starts to come back. Time to relax.
    With all due respect, I think "taking a holiday" and just "relaxing" is what NOT to do in this type of crisis. The pros are watching carefully for signs that CV is starting to be controlled, and that the impact on business will be ending. When those signs appear, the market will start moving back up quickly and the prime buying opportunities will vanish in short order.

  49. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Where are you at the moment Mick, in the UK or locked up in Spain?
    Locked up in Spain, life is so tough.

  50. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    With all due respect, I think "taking a holiday" and just "relaxing" is what NOT to do in this type of crisis. The pros are watching carefully for signs that CV is starting to be controlled, and that the impact on business will be ending. When those signs appear, the market will start moving back up quickly and the prime buying opportunities will vanish in short order.
    With all due respect there is a difference between taking a holiday and switching off.

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