Reply With QuoteBrexit will devastate the U.K. watch market. A Rolex Sub will be worth about 5p
Evening all,
After being hammered over the last couple of years over uk exchange rates (most lately in Croatia - feck sake!) I sometimes wonder what the impact will be of us actually leaving the EU. From a watch buying perspective of course. It seems when looking online that better prices are generally available from the eu grey market than uk grey market but this is I think because they more readily discount their prices. Rolex are generally cheaper in the UK which i think reflects the poor currency rate whilst RRPs remain static.
I’m imagining that buying goods abroad will be like doing so outside the EU, i.e. that it will be cheaper because duty will be deducted at source but it then has to be paid on entry to Uk. At which point it may be roughly the same or may be more expensive (again due to poor currency rates). Unless you decide to buy a watch and then either stick packaging in luggage, send it home or discard. Also given that we buy watches from the eu online I wonder are they inclined to rise, fall or stay the same.
Anyway, bit of a ramble, I know but as I sit waiting on my youngest to fall asleep I thought I’d ask the community what’s the general opinion.
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Brexit will devastate the U.K. watch market. A Rolex Sub will be worth about 5p
It already has and will get much worseOriginally Posted by -Ally-
Pray tell
3p...?
Not sure I follow. Are you suggesting the price of Rolex will fall drastically??
Personally, I think a large part of the huge price increases in Swiss watches generally over the last decade or so has been the huge appreciation in the strength of the Swiss franc. In other words, it takes far more £ to buy a product produced and priced in CHF.
There will be differences in worldwide pricing based mainly on other exchange rate fluctuations. Ie U.K. seems cheaper to many overseas visitors due to depreciation in £ more recently.
I would think any international co will work to even out these things over time to give a broadly similar price world wide.
The rise of the home currency though has been so strong for so long that this had pushed prices up worldwide.
I don’t think brexit has had very much at all to do with that as it has been a very long term trend.
A fall in the value of chf would be quite welcome although sadly I doubt that would lead to a reduction in the rrp of Rolex in the U.K., rather a longer period of price stability.
Apologies, I wasn’t being seriously.
I don’t subscribe to the ‘Brexit is Armageddon’ nonsense.
Would make a trip to Switzerland more appealing tho
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I don’t either but like everything else it’s likely to have an effect and has done already. There hasn’t been much talk in the media or anywhere else around the logistics post change so it’s a genuine interest. Also, I’ll be hitting a big birthday around then so think it’s a valid consideration to buy before or after. It will cost more or it will cost less. And there will be more in it than a few pennies I reckon. At least until the dust settles I’d say.
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Me neither....
And apology not needed. It’s just light hearted debate between strangers over the internet after all.
FWIW I think
Fairly safe to assume U.K. prices won’t go down but may go up.
Buying from eu may get more complex, unlikely to get simpler. Prices could go down but dependant on gbp/ eur currency fluctuation which could go either way, brexit or no brexit.
If brexit goes well, £ likely to make gradual recovery, but bad brexit could have further £ devaluation, which would make Swiss watches even more expensive.
In summary, it could go either way, but there is probably a greater risk of significant price increases if a bad brexit, but less benefit if it is favourable. I’d buy sooner rather than later!
Hedging with Rolex.
I’ve said it before, but I’m surprised Rolex futures and options don’t already exist...
I’m sure plenty of people on Pepsi gmt waiting lists would be happy to buy an option to purchase at today’s rrp in the next 5 yrs.
Could easily wait that long and who knows how much the price might go up in that time!
Well, for starters it will make our “internal” market much smaller. Which should drive prices up. It will make servicing more expensive, as well. Apart from the overall impact in the economy, which looks either bad, terrible or right down scary. Hopefully, retail prices at ADs will remain stable.
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I admire your financial creativity.
Rolexes aren’t quite as commoditised as soybeans or lean hogs... in fact quite the opposite, and that’s of course part of the fun (read: skill) of watch trading!
Of course you could be talking BNIB / NOS, but it takes a special kind of person to volunteer to be the sad sack sourcing and keeping all these BNIBs for 5 years waiting to deliver.
My 2 cents worth:
Brexit will cause an immediate downturn in the UK economy as some people/politicians/elites laugh at the peoples stupid decision to want to leave. There will be engineered shortages of everything and customs delays etc....
However, ride that for a few weeks and you will see the Eurozone collapse entirely. This is not about how much we pay the EU but the velocity of money in the EU.
The UK will clamour-up with thier cash; Cars, holidays, wine, cheese, veg, washing machines etc....all will shrink while EU politicos scrabble to unwind some really unreasonable positions which have nothing to do with trade and everything to do with control and power.
This lack of cash for one reason or another will take the whole edifice down with it. My guess is that 6 months after Brexit, the UK will be dependant on the City, Europe will be financially destroyed in a chain reaction of every Euro-nation re-denominating back to historical currency. Debt in Euro! The pound and the deutshe-mark will soar. Swiss will be ok. Plenty of SS Rolex to go around.
The people of Europe will trade together freely without political bias and a massive useless overhead sucking productivity out of every European will be gone. Another 50 years of peace then until the next European dictator tries to conquer Europe
Rant-mode off
If you hadn't ended that with Rant-mode off I'd have assumed that this was another attempt at humour, as we've seen earlier in the thread. This really isn't an appropriate response to the question asked here and if this really is your "opinion" then it's more Bear-Pit than Watch Talk. It's rare that a Watch-Talk response make me shake my head and think "What did I just read?".
thats you opinion. And my post does relate to watches and economics of watches/collections. The OP asked for general opinion.
Now please politely can you stop being so “triggered”
In the recent past it, at times when the pound has been high and certain other Eurozone economies were struggling, it has sometimes been possible to buy cheap pre-owned watches which had no VAT on import. Politics aside, I can’t imagine this getting easier in future.
Whatever your take on the likely effect of Brexit on the wider economy, I’d say it’s a pretty safe bet to say that it will certainly not make the purchase of high end watches either easier or cheaper! It’s also the perfect pretext to stick prices up any way...
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I assume you mean customs duty. Yes, we’re almost certainly going to expect higher all-in prices from the EU.
Newsflash: Countries exist and prosper outside of the EU, they are awash with luxury goods, services etc and happy to trade globally including emerging markets where most opportunities lie.
Fas est ab hoste doceri
Actually I also mean VAT, depending on how the deal pans out. On Chrono24 you often see some very tempting prices from the US, until you realise you’ll be paying 20% VAT plus customs duty and processing on import. In the event of a no-deal hard Brexit, I presume buying a pre-owned watch from a private seller in Italy would be much the same? It seems rare that buying watches from non-EU countries works out well, with the possible exception of buying GS direct from Japan or other Far East countries, and you do have to factor in the taxes. It’s always appeared to me that we benefit from being able to buy watches directly from various EU countries without ‘friction’.
Perhaps future crises hitting the value of the Euro could change the relative value of GBP to CHF. Though while I’m no economist I don’t see GBP becoming a ‘safe haven’ currency like CHF any time soon! It might become easier to sell our watches I suppose if that’s any consolation.
I don’t think there’s any wrong answer here. All anyone can do is speculate. From the informed to the uninformed it’s all a guessing game as there is no historical data and even the ‘experts’ disagree. Depending on the success of Brexit it could well trigger further referendums but it will be a long time before we can bank any tangible benefits given the immediate debt we will need to claw ourselves out of. And given that the political swing anticipated in Europe over the last year never really materialised I imagine the their immediate focus will be on strengthening Europe rather than trying to break it apart.
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But yeah, I’d be amazed if anything got cheaper..
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Ah, I understand what you mean. Yeah there’s definitely a chance that VAT gets a poor deal, although I’m hoping for at least some sort of agreement, as that would have far wider implications than our interest in watches!
You raise a good point. Given the addition of tax at the border to pre owned watches purchased from the US - nothing more than government extortion - then 2nd hand buying from eu will be out completely. They are hardly going to reduce selling prices by 20% to offset the tax we will whack on at the border.
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Seems a bit hard for anyone here to predict the result of Breakfast when the government don't even seem to have any idea what it will look like.
It will, I guess, all depends if there are additional taxes or duties on imports from Customs Union countries.
No one knows yet.
M
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Breitling Cosmonaute 809 - What's not to like?
You could argue that the fact that they don’t have any idea how it will look is making the outcome disturbingly predictable.
PS - Did you mean ‘Breakfast’ or is that autocorrect at work? Either way I agree, the government are probably incapable of predicting even how well Breakfast will go, never mind Elevenses.
This.
Swiss watch RRP (especially Rolex) are approx 10%-12% cheaper in the UK than anywhere else even after a price adjustment due to a devalued Pound. Up until now I was quite surprised with Rolex not increasing prices further to bring us in line with the rest of Europe. Could be simply due to the uncertainty of the Brexit deal (or no deal for that matter)
I believe for Swiss watches come March next year the UK will most probably see a substantial increase in pricing.
By the end March/beginning of April next year, I think most people will be more concerned about the big increases in prices in a lot of the items we import rather than worrying about the cost of a Swiss Luxury watch.For example, 71% of the UK total imports of fruit,vegetables and other agricultural products comes from the EU and the now accepted view is that the price of these will increase and there may well be shortages due to problems with customs etc.
Of course Brexit is going to have a significant impact, most things will get more expensive because we don't make anything anymore, most of the companies that make products in this country are foreign owned and will more than likely move abroad in the next 10 years. Our biggest earning industry, finance, will definitely move overseas, London is currently a very favourable place for banks to operate within the EU, once we leave, it will be more cost effective to move to one of the other countries offering good terms. Although a lot of people don't like them, we're reliant on the income that the financial services bring into this country.
My wife works for a major retailer in their buying department, Turkey put their prices up by 30% within a week of the Brexit vote, many other countries have followed, this will only get worse, especially for food etc, which the majority of which, comes from Europe.
Strangely, I think Swiss watches will be affected least, because Switzerland isn't part of the EU, so as long as the pound stabilises, I don't see the big increases that will be seen on other goods.
What’s the situation with Switzerland now?
Can visitors claim VAT back (presuming there is VAT) on exit?
They should be able to, however, you'd have to pay it when you entered the UK. If you want to be really clever, and are spending enough money, research who has the lowest import dates in the EU, register it there, pay their tax and then come to the UK, I used to do it with cars, the Netherlands was always very good value. When we leave the EU, you won't have a choice.
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