Buying a Rolex to enjoy...

[td1596]

A very dangerous game to consider any watch an investment, even more so to try and calculate what it may return in the future and then compare that with bank rates. £9k for a top grade 5513 seems cheap these days and I personally agree that values will continue to rise. Insurance costs are pennies and I was quoted £350 to service a 14060m movement recently, so the watch may well end up beating your average 0.01% to 1.5% savers interest rates and you get the enjoyment out of owning a superb watch.

If cash return is your main priority don't buy a watch.

wasn't looking as an investment, was just interesting to speculate about the numbers.

[Wallasey Runner]

+1......have to agree!

Just buy what you like and stop fretting about the value of the watch. Personally I think the Rolex bubble will burst eventually, but if I really wanted one it wouldn’t stop me buying what I liked. You only live once. As I’ve already said, if the prospect of losing money is a significant concern don’t risk it.

Paul

Why will the Rolex bubble burst. There are many iconic brands out there and people love the discontinued stuff relating to those brands, it feeds the collectors market. I totally agree with not over obsessing about future values, but equally how many of us are happy to walk into an AD and buy a brand that we know has a 50% to 60% residual hit the minute you walk out of the shop.

Surely that is one of the benefits of being a member of a watch forum, good debate, good advice and the ability to make an informed decision. At the end of the day, how many people can afford to spend £10k on a watch without giving a flying f**k about what that watch will be worth further down the road.

[Wallasey Runner]

wasn't looking as an investment, was just interesting to speculate about the numbers.

Apologies, regard any quality 5513 as an asset that can be easily changed into cash if needs be. There are many dealers who will readily take it off you the minute you decide to sell. Logically the longer you hold on to it the better you will do.

[td1596]

I’d like to see your maths on this.

I get 6% so 9k over 10 years becomes 16k. Insurance about £100-200 per year and 2 services.

It wasn't a serious or accurate calculation, just something to think about. As for future value, who knows, you're unlikely to lose money on one though

[slever]

I’d get an Oyster perpetual date. The new dial colours are lovey, I think, and earlier ones are reasonable money on the used market. All this Submariner, Sea Dweller, GMT, Sky Master stuff - bigger is better - is bit of a mugs game (aka bubble?). My trusty and bog standard ref 15200 has been a great watch and although not worth a huge amount would more than pay for its outlay 10 years after I bought it new.

I really the Milgaus range too, but again here the black dial model is very nice but punters pay a premium for the green sapphire models. My brother has a black dial reference and its a proper Engineers’ watch (we are both Engineers).

I also would buy a used gold Cellini, the new ones look great, and I bet they depreciate like a stone. This where savy buyers should look.

[td1596]

I’d get an Oyster perpetual date. The new dial colours I think are lovey, and the older ones are reasonable money on the used market. All this Submariner, Sea-dweller, GMT style of bigger is better is of a mugs game, I think. My trusty bog standard 15200 has been a great watch and although not worth a huge amount would more than pay for itself 10 years after I bought it new.

somewhat agree with this, the last watch I sold was a 60s 1500. I owned it for about 9 years and that paid for itself and then some! (even when selling to a dealer)

[slever]

For me, it would be a used Milgauss. One without the green Sapphire.

+1


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[slever]

I have a very simplistic MO on Rolex watches.

Buy what you like (or think you like) and hold onto them until you expire the mortal coil. Your kids then inherit them and then they can either keep them or sell them.

This way I don't give a damn whether I will get my money back or not.

Yep, that’s a good approach. I just wish someone had left me what I’m gonna leave someone.


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[walkerwek1958]

Two distinctly different scenarios with the Rolex market.

Firstly, there’s the non-sports models such as the Oyster, Air King and Datejust that traditionally make up the majority of watches sold over the years. These have risen in value as a consequence of Rolex new prices doubling over that past 10-11 years. That’s made these watches a safe buy and I suspect current values will hold up well in the future. However, I doubt we’ll see similar hikes in new prices on this scale over the next few years but if we do it’s questionable whether second-hand prices would continue to increase pro-rata; there has to come a point where there aren’t sufficient buyers with the money to pay the prices.

Secondly, there’s the sports models which have seen a big rise in the prices of the vintage models. Ironically, upgrading the range to ceramic bezels and fatter cases has increased demand for the older versions; coupled with a shortage of supply of new watches the second-hand market is very buoyant and prices have risen. However, to predict that this trend will continue is an act of folly, the factors driving the prices upwards have taken effect already so logic dictates that prices should flatten out or even fall if supply improves. There’s also the spectre of rising interest rates and the likilihood of increased mortgage payments, which will hit particularly hard in the affluent south where property prices are high and potential Rolex buyers are in abundance. The higher the prices the fewer people able (or willing) to pay them, that’s a fact that’s easy to overlook whenviewed from the goldfish-bowl perspective of a watch forum.

I could be wrong, but I can’t see how prices for the more commonplace sports models can continue to rise. The collectors market is somewhat different but there’s no certainties there either, a fall of 10-20% is entirely feasible in my view given the recent sharp rises.

I stick to my previous premise, anyone who spends £10k on a watch should be prepared for it to fall significantly in value if the market changes. Provided you like the watch and can afford to keep it there isn’t a problem, but you have to be able to accept the fall in value. If the loss in value would bother you maybe it’s wise not to buy, on a 1 to 10 scale I personally think losing a few grand on a watch scores quite low, I wouldn’t be happy but apart from annoying me it wouldn’t cause real damage because I’d only commit money I could afford to lose.......... that’s my view and others may disagree.

Paul

[Caruso]

I think the key is still to buy the watch you really want, then if the value drops or doesn't rise as hoped then you've still had enjoyment and therefore value out of it.

I was well on my way to buying a 16610LV just because I liked them and it seemed an eminently sensible purchase. But in the end I bought a Vintage Day-Date for half the price. It's much more me, and so gets worn most days. Plus when Rolex finally goes out of fashion it will still have significant scrap value!

[bobdog]

I thought the title of this thread was Buying a Rolex to Enjoy and not Buy a Rolex and stick Your Head in a Gas Oven. Morrissey is alive and well!

[waser]

I think there’s a ceiling to things but the values will hold. There’s a fanatical following to Rolex that would not allow a correction in prices as much as what has been mentioned. Sure a small dip possibly but watches get snapped up up to £10k in minutes of being posted online nowadays. It’s nuts for us as we’ve seen the trajectory moving upwards and recall when these pieces were around £2k. But even our community will pay the prices, however begrudgingly. The semi-casual observer will probably pay more as they go to the high street vintage retailers that charge a premium in London.

I’ve read time and again that watches are a bad investment. But there are plenty that I could have bought in the last few years whose value has gone up 60% or more. Some literally overnight. I’ve also had a few that I sold in the past couple of years that would be worth a lot more now. So the evidence is to the contrary.

Just search the SC for past Rolex sales and see some of the prices for models that sell for around £5k now. Some were £3000 - £3500 just 2-3 years ago.

As 5513 and 16750 models push up beyond £10k the market will look to the next popular semi-vintage model to take their place and those will push on to £10k too. Rinse and repeat...


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[wild84]

Well, I think you're safe with a steel rolex model. If you don't lose it and you didn't overpay, you'll most likely get at least what you paid for it, if you sell it.

[sarky]

Milsub etc aside, I’ll wager certain pre-ceramic Rolex models will decline sharply in the next ten years. There are so many 5513/1680’s etc in circulation and not many originals left. The older model will start to be seen as old and will be left in vintage Datejust territory, languishing in many a jewellers window with a faded reduced sticker.

[Philip]

Aside from any current economic situation, seems to me that as a safe buy you're immeasurably better off buying something that is already a "classic", as opposed to flavour of the month.

[w2w]

Just bought an original deepsea that was unworn and still had all the stickers on from 2009, and the first thing I did was take the stickers off and put it on my wrist

[JP Chestnut]

Baring some change in service parts, which could definitely happen, I don't see the prices ever dropping dramatically.