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Thread: Bitcoin

  1. #2601
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    And here's a topical example to illustrate the point.





    No hints, tip offs or warnings, just a sudden flash crash on your chart.

    #ChiefRocketFueller
    Wooosh.

    Not a clue what that means.

  2. #2602
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Not a clue what that means.
    In summary, always do the utmost to ensure the integrity and veracity of your data - GIGO.

  3. #2603
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Wooosh.

    Not a clue what that means.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  4. #2604
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    I see. Thanks. 🤓

  5. #2605
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    The future of investments/payments. Can't stop....

    https://archive.ph/gJssm
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  6. #2606
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    The future of investments/payments. Can't stop....

    https://archive.ph/gJssm
    Possibly not entirely coincidentally - https://www.arabnews.com/node/1845076/business-economy

    Did you remember to cancel the milk?

  7. #2607
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    Bitcoin down to ~50k in recent days. I had said to myself I wasn’t putting more money in, but I’ve a buy order placed at 47k

  8. #2608
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    I suspect there will be many many others with similar buy orders, including some enormous ones from large institutions. The bull run is not over.....

  9. #2609
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    Top is in.

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  10. #2610
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    Anyone looking into chia?

    Farming and plotting not buying yet.
    Last edited by ac82; 23rd April 2021 at 02:07.

  11. #2611
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    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  12. #2612
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    Check this: dude creates new crypto money: Simple Cool Automatic Money, or shortened as SCAM.

    Within an hour it has a market cap of $70 mio.

    2021, bro.


    https://twitter.com/TikTokInvestors/...65742506364929
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  13. #2613
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    Bought some more btc at a hair under 48k.

  14. #2614
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    Bought some more btc at a hair under 48k.
    Nice buy. I was waiting for 47k. Still might see some volatility ST so will wait another day. I did pick up some XRP though to increase my alt-coin exposure.

  15. #2615
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Check this: dude creates new crypto money: Simple Cool Automatic Money, or shortened as SCAM.

    Within an hour it has a market cap of $70 mio.

    2021, bro.


    https://twitter.com/TikTokInvestors/...65742506364929

    Unfortunately $SCAM is now down 97% from its high a little earlier today.

    Guys on the Telegram group:






    F**k me, how is this not a 100%-sure sign the top is in?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  16. #2616
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    Lord Elon:

    'Hold my beer'


    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Unfortunately $SCAM is now down 97% from its high a little earlier today.

    Guys on the Telegram group:





    F**k me, how is this not a 100%-sure sign the top is in?

  17. #2617
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Unfortunately $SCAM is now down 97% from its high a little earlier today.

    Guys on the Telegram group:






    F**k me, how is this not a 100%-sure sign the top is in?
    In historic terms how does Bitcoin and other crypto’s benchmark against the tulip bubble?

    We hear a lot about Bitcoin as the whole thing needs all the hype to keep rolling but in the scheme of things it’s pretty insignificant I suspect, my forecast too is zero. I just don’t get why people are piling capital into a digital asset/currency with no utility

  18. #2618
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Unfortunately $SCAM is now down 97% from its high a little earlier today.

    Guys on the Telegram group:






    F**k me, how is this not a 100%-sure sign the top is in?
    Ouch!


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  19. #2619
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    If all of the currently owned BTC were cashed in how much would be in the pot to share out?

  20. #2620
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    If all of the currently owned BTC were cashed in how much would be in the pot to share out?
    Just under 1T

  21. #2621
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    Just under 1T
    I don’t think so. Who’s holding the $1T ready to hand out ?

  22. #2622
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    I don’t think so. Who’s holding the $1T ready to hand out ?
    That was exactly the point here:

    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse...-ga...tin-steinmann/


    The price will collapse when everybody wants out. Lots of people who need to squeeze through a tiny little door on their way out. Won't be pretty.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  23. #2623
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    And there you have the big difference between bitcoin and gold: gold has utility. Bitcoin doesn't. It is the definition of a fiat asset, it is only worth something as long as people believe that it's worth something.

    The Blockchain is a clever construct, but that doesn't change the fact the the shell is empty. Look at it like a token with nothing tokenised. A NFT has at least something that it represents, bitcoin doesn't. It simply doesn't have an underlying.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  24. #2624
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    I don’t think so. Who’s holding the $1T ready to hand out ?
    If you already know all the answers, I’m not sure why you insist on asking the questions to be honest...

    But as you’ve asked...

    The price of anything will tumble as people cash out en mass - PMs / diamonds / stocks / commodities all included - you could argue they might not go to zero, and Bitcoin might - pays your money and takes your chances.

    If you fancy some light reading on what happens when everyone wants to squeeze through the door at once:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_of_Lehman_Brothers
    Last edited by demonloop; 23rd April 2021 at 19:22.

  25. #2625
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    If you already know all the answers, I’m not sure why you insist on asking the questions to be honest...

    But as you’ve asked...

    The price of anything will tumble as people cash out en mass - PMs / diamonds / stocks / commodities all included - you could argue they might not go to zero, and Bitcoin might - pays your money and takes your chances.
    It’s a genuine question, I’m guessing many coins are owned by miners and many have been purchased at much lower values so if you viewed Bitcoin as a closed system how much capital has actually been pumped in?

  26. #2626
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    If you already know all the answers, I’m not sure why you insist on asking the questions to be honest...

    But as you’ve asked...

    The price of anything will tumble as people cash out en mass - PMs / diamonds / stocks / commodities all included - you could argue they might not go to zero, and Bitcoin might - pays your money and takes your chances.

    If you fancy some light reading on what happens when everyone wants to squeeze through the door at once:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank...ehman_Brothers
    I got news: neither precious metals nor diamonds will go to zero.

    In such a case it's incredibly helpful if your asset has intrinsic value or a government sponsor. Bitcoin has neither.

    It also matters if many people are holding the asset as a leveraged short term speculation of higher prices.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  27. #2627
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    Agreed Raffe, but I didn’t say the others would go to zero. Prices would tumble though and the nimble would win, and the tardy lose.

    I still maintain Bitcoin has a way to go.

    I’ll be happy to eat humble pie if this thread is still running and the day comes.

  28. #2628
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    Agreed Raffe, but I didn’t say the others would go to zero. Prices would tumble though and the nimble would win, and the tardy lose.

    I still maintain Bitcoin has a way to go.

    I’ll be happy to eat humble pie if this thread is still running and the day comes.
    So do we have a view how much capital has been pumped into Bitcoin compared to the $1T market capitalisation?

  29. #2629
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    So do we have a view how much capital has been pumped into Bitcoin compared to the $1T market capitalisation?
    I have no idea. Not sure how you could even calculate it.

    Have you any idea how much money has been pumped into gold to have a market cap of 10T?

  30. #2630
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    Agreed Raffe, but I didn’t say the others would go to zero. Prices would tumble though and the nimble would win, and the tardy lose.

    I still maintain Bitcoin has a way to go.

    I’ll be happy to eat humble pie if this thread is still running and the day comes.
    I am not saying this is going to happen anytime soon. We have seen how long it takes for assets to deflate, especially when held by cults - just remember Hertz successfully raising capital while in chapter 11 and all shares were predictably worthless a year later.

    My point is that there will be a trigger which will start the process of cryptos going to zero and I don't think it will be long until the top is in (of we haven't seen it already).
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  31. #2631
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    So do we have a view how much capital has been pumped into Bitcoin compared to the $1T market capitalisation?
    My suspicion is that there is very little real money in the pool. Just consider Nakamoto and the whales (Winklevoss et al.), who paid next to nothing for their huge positions.

    And then consider that a large part of the actual cash in the system is actually borrowed through margin trading and will be called by the brokers/banks during periods of weakness.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  32. #2632
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    I have no idea. Not sure how you could even calculate it.

    Have you any idea how much money has been pumped into gold to have a market cap of 10T?
    It's about the short term increase of value. Hasn't happened with gold, so the likelihood of cash available to bid for gold if and when there is a mass exodus is a lot higher than in the case of bitcoin. And then there is the intrinsic value of gold on top.

    Completely different situation.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  33. #2633
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    But how much money pumped in? To get to 10t

  34. #2634
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    But how much money pumped in? To get to 10t
    See above. Completely different.

    Also can't remember that anyone here was making a point that gold was the asset to own?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  35. #2635
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    I have no idea. Not sure how you could even calculate it.

    Have you any idea how much money has been pumped into gold to have a market cap of 10T?
    Gold won’t be far short of that due to the long term nature and the fact it hasn’t increased 2000% in a few years.

    There are a few major players with huge positions that skew the Bitcoin market.

  36. #2636
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    My suspicion is that there is very little real money in the pool. Just consider Nakamoto and the whales (Winklevoss et al.), who paid next to nothing for their huge positions.

    And then consider that a large part of the actual cash in the system is actually borrowed through margin trading and will be called by the brokers/banks during periods of weakness.
    I’d be surprised if there was as much as 5% of the market capitalisation there, probably more like 1% ... just a guess though.

  37. #2637
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    Quote Originally Posted by tertius View Post
    I’d be surprised if there was as much as 5% of the market capitalisation there, probably more like 1% ... just a guess though.
    Yep.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  38. #2638
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Interesting read, I’ve never quite understood the role of tether in the system ...
    That is why lots of traders prefer to fix crypto in USDC, to be on the safe side. On the other hand Coinbase is launching USDT on its platform in several days but I prefer Redot because this is a UE licensed exchange with great security features (U2F protection, cold storage etc.).
    Last edited by Owren; 1st May 2021 at 23:06.

  39. #2639
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    Simplistic calculation of cash inside the system:

    I have taken the data series of BTC issuance and prices over time from this website:

    https://www.blockchain.com/charts/total-bitcoins
    https://www.blockchain.com/charts/market-price (export data button lower right)

    Then I have calculated the weekly issuance per week since 2009, then allocated the prices from the price series (simple vlookup function) and can thus calculate the weekly cash value of newly issued coins. I am assuming that the miners have sold their weekly mining at spot price into the market, which may be incorrect as they may have stockpiled the mined coins and only sold them later.

    But anyway, it at least gives us an indication - cash in the system 2.32% of current market cap:

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  40. #2640
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Simplistic calculation of cash inside the system:


    But anyway, it at least gives us an indication - cash in the system 2.32% of current market cap:
    😳

  41. #2641
    So my guess was actually pretty good. Amazing.

  42. #2642
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Unfortunately $SCAM is now down 97% from its high a little earlier today.
    Despair not. Just buy $SHEESH instead.

    https://twitter.com/TikTokInvestors/...24993292615682


    https://poocoin.app/tokens/0x7e5d52c...bb9e43f2aba62c

    You may argue that the last stated value of his coin doesn't mean he can actually get the money out and capitalise on the theoretical market cap - which is exactly the argument that we have been discussing earlier this evening re bitcoin.

    There is simply no way every hodler of bitcoin will get their money. Ain't going to happen. Which proves the point that it's nothing but a belief system, aka fiat.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  43. #2643
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    I don’t think Bitcoin falls into any existing definition of money. That’s partly the reason why many don’t “get it” imo

    It’s Fiat in so far as it’s worth 50k because everyone agrees it is, but not fiat in the respect that govt doesn’t control it (and this can’t print more of it)

    Some will argue that’s a bad thing, others (like me) a good thing.

  44. #2644
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    Probably another one of my dim posts......but here goes....


    I don’t see why you think the issue with everyone not being likely to get their money out is any different to any other stock?

    If everyone who currently holds Bitcoin wanted out at the same exact moment, and they all expected to receive $50,000 per coin, as the price stands right now....then yes, you’re right, there would not be enough money in the pot to pay them.

    But you’re basing that assumption on the system working like a bank system with fiat money, where someone has £100,000 deposited in their troubled Northern Rock account and they join the queue expecting to get £100,000 out of their account before the bank goes bust.

    This is different as the price per Bitcoin would tumble as the sell off begins, meaning that there probably is enough “cash in the pot” to pay out on every single Bitcoin, assuming that the first person in the queue gets paid $50,000 for their coin and the last person get $0.01 for the last coin. As long as the system is running, there would be buyers for Bitcoin at $0.01 a coin for all eternity, which is why I think the price can never go to zero.



    Surely it’s exactly the same for every stock? An example... if the holders of all 7.7bn Tesco shares suddenly decided they wanted to sell all of those shares, is the full market cap of £17bn sitting in Tesco’s bank account ready to pay them out at today’s share price? No.

    Is that not the same situation?



    [Ready to be torn apart by Raffe for missing a vital fact...]
    Last edited by mr noble; 24th April 2021 at 07:57.

  45. #2645
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Probably another one of my dim posts......but here goes....


    I don’t see why you think the issue with everyone not being likely to get their money out is any different to any other stock?

    If everyone who currently holds Bitcoin wanted out at the same exact moment, and they all expected to receive $50,000 per coin, as the price stands right now....then yes, you’re right, there would not be enough money in the pot to pay them.

    But you’re basing that assumption on the system working like a bank system with fiat money, where someone has £100,000 deposited in their troubled Northern Rock account and they join the queue expecting to get £100,000 out of their account before the bank goes bust.

    This is different as the price per Bitcoin would tumble as the sell off begins, meaning that there probably is enough “cash in the pot” to pay out on every single Bitcoin, assuming that the first person in the queue gets paid $50,000 for their coin and the last person get $0.01 for the last coin. As long as the system is running, there would be buyers for Bitcoin at $0.01 a coin for all eternity, which is why I think the price can never go to zero.



    Surely it’s exactly the same for every stock? An example... if the holders of all 7.7bn Tesco shares suddenly decided they wanted to sell all of those shares, is the full market cap of £17bn sitting in Tesco’s bank account ready to pay them out at today’s share price? No.

    Is that not the same situation?



    [Ready to be torn apart by Raffe for missing a vital fact...]
    The point is your Tesco shares have intrinsic value on the balance sheet in terms of assets and current and future profits. Your Bitcoin has no intrinsic value so can fall to zero.

  46. #2646
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    I guess you have to consider at what point the majority of coins were bought, if say ( arbitrary ) 60% of the coins held were bought at 15k each or less, then the owners have a lot of slack in the ‘profit’ not to get scared at falling values, it’s the guys who have a lot of money in at 50k per coin that have to pay attention to any drops.
    Cheers..
    Jase

  47. #2647
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Probably another one of my dim posts......but here goes....


    I don’t see why you think the issue with everyone not being likely to get their money out is any different to any other stock?

    If everyone who currently holds Bitcoin wanted out at the same exact moment, and they all expected to receive $50,000 per coin, as the price stands right now....then yes, you’re right, there would not be enough money in the pot to pay them.

    But you’re basing that assumption on the system working like a bank system with fiat money, where someone has £100,000 deposited in their troubled Northern Rock account and they join the queue expecting to get £100,000 out of their account before the bank goes bust.

    This is different as the price per Bitcoin would tumble as the sell off begins, meaning that there probably is enough “cash in the pot” to pay out on every single Bitcoin, assuming that the first person in the queue gets paid $50,000 for their coin and the last person get $0.01 for the last coin. As long as the system is running, there would be buyers for Bitcoin at $0.01 a coin for all eternity, which is why I think the price can never go to zero.



    Surely it’s exactly the same for every stock? An example... if the holders of all 7.7bn Tesco shares suddenly decided they wanted to sell all of those shares, is the full market cap of £17bn sitting in Tesco’s bank account ready to pay them out at today’s share price? No.

    Is that not the same situation?



    [Ready to be torn apart by Raffe for missing a vital fact...]

    Missing the vital fact: When you own Tesco shares, you actually own part of their business, which has an intrinsic value. Remind me what you own when you have bitcoin, other than a seat in a believe-system (aka a cult)?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  48. #2648
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    The point is your Tesco shares have intrinsic value on the balance sheet in terms of assets and current and future profits. Your Bitcoin has no intrinsic value so can fall to zero.
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Missing the vital fact: When you own Tesco shares, you actually own part of their business, which has an intrinsic value. Remind me what you own when you have bitcoin, other than a seat in a believe-system (aka a cult)?


    That was not the question though. The question was whether there would be enough cash in the Bitcoin pot if everyone wanted to cash out at once. The answer is no, but it's also no for almost all other stocks.

  49. #2649
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    That was not the question though. The question was whether there would be enough cash in the Bitcoin pot if everyone wanted to cash out at once. The answer is no, but it's also no for almost all other stocks.
    Surely just like any other stock...all wanting to sell = more supply than demand = price tumbles until there is a market match? Not sure how 'cash in the system' comes into it? The cash comes from the potential buyer of what you are selling does it not?

    (Also waiting for Raffe to correct me!)

  50. #2650
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    Is it not a moot point anyway? If you had a stock where every holder wanted to sell, then that means someone has to buy them. Ergo it couldn't happen that all money is returned to stock holders. Only, perhaps, the stock holders at a certain point in time. Also, if everyone wanted to sell, then supply would exceed demand, so liquidity would be low, so you may not find buyers.

    That's my understanding anyway. I get you are looking at this in theory as opposed to practice.

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