Reply With QuoteHow could you possibly predict from scarcity alone?
You need demand and price action - no way it can return anything without.
It’s not predicting the future from the past. It’s predicting the future from a known variable - the scarcity of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is produced at a fairly predictable rate, and it’s based on that.Originally Posted by Raffe
And here’s a screenshot from Dec 19, no change to model or prices. Not sure what model you’re looking at but it ain’t this one.
Planbtc.com
Last edited by demonloop; 21st January 2021 at 22:50.
How could you possibly predict from scarcity alone?
You need demand and price action - no way it can return anything without.
I’m no expert but my eyes don’t lie to me
There a pretty good thesis on the website I linked if you fancy a little light reading.
Last edited by demonloop; 22nd January 2021 at 07:31.
April 2020.
"The original stock-to-flow model predicted that BTC would reach $55,000 in 2021. That's about a 6-fold increase in 18 months."
"On April 27, 2020, Plan B presented his BTC S2F Cross Asset (S2FX) Model. The S2FX predicts that by 2024, BTC with be worth an eye-popping $288,000."
Quotes taken from this interesting take down - https://francistapon.com/Work/Wander...l-Will-Doom-It
Google is our friend.
No, it’s my friend on this occasion.Google is our friend.
In April 2020 Plan B put forward a different model S2FX (that’s where you plucked your 288k figure from) but there was no change to the original S2F model
The S2F model I’ve been referring to from the start does indeed quote a bitcoin value of 55k **in 2021** but the chart goes beyond that date, with a terminal value of +100k
Should be noted the author has more faith in the 288k cross-asset model but I think it’s optimistic.
Would be happy to be wrong though!
Last edited by demonloop; 22nd January 2021 at 07:29.
Whatever.
The idea of predicting future price on scarcity alone with no reliable input for demand is outright crazy. If you look at Gold and Silver, you have long time series with demand, it is mainly driven by industrial and jewelry application of the material (plus speculation). There is a steady stream of demand, which is elastic based on the output price. The last condition is similar with Bitcoin, except that supply is finite (which by definition would mean that any supply-based model would have to predict infinity as the price for the last block, but let's leave that aside).
The big problem is that there is no data nor proxy for demand when it comes to Bitcoin, all action is solely driven by speculation. The logical consequence of that is that whatever you put in as future demand will directly influence the price forecast. There are simply no sensible variables that you can use for this model other than creating a circular reference.
Interesting reading, the Francis Tapon link.
That same model if carried through predicts that by 2050 a Bitcoin is worth $1 Trillion which makes the market cap of BTC higher than the value of every other asset on planet earth.
ETA - this must equate to Raffe’s comment above that these models have to end at infinity.
BTC dropped to $28,800 overnight. I think we’ve seen the peak of this boom and will have to wait until after the next halving before it goes higher.
Last edited by mr noble; 22nd January 2021 at 08:45.
I sensibly cashed out 3 days ago as I suggested. I un-sensibly piled back in 2 days ago when it dropped to a 'bargain' $35.5k. Ouch.
I'll just let it ride. May take 2 years may take 2 days but it will pump again. All this garbage from Yellen (as if the Fed really has the power to curtail Crypto lol) is the same regurgitated stuff that we heard 3 years ago during that last pump. So I'm not worried about that as it is human nature to conveniently 'forget' the past and pile back in where greed is the driver (alongside a side dish of FOMO).
Thinking out loud......I could certainly see governments trying to ban the mining and running of BTC servers or equipment in their countries on the grounds of its increasingly power hungry appetite and pollution of our planet.
It could be made similar to a class A or B drug.
That would push all of the servers out of developed countries and into lesser developed ones which would struggle to provide the required power.
It is worth reading what Yellen actually said, which seems quite sensible to me:
Question: Dr. Yellen, what do you view as the potential threats and benefits these innovations and technologies will have on U.S. national security? Do you think more needs to be done to ensure we have appropriate safeguards and regulations for digital and cryptocurrencies in place?
Answer: I think it important we consider the benefits of cryptocurrencies and other digital assets, and the potential they have to improve the efficiency of the financial system. At the same time, we know they can be used to finance terrorism, facilitate money laundering, and support malign activities that threaten U.S. national security interests and the integrity of the U.S. and international financial systems. I think we need to look closely at how to encourage their use for legitimate activities while curtailing their use for malign and illegal activities. If confirmed, I intend to work closely with the Federal Reserve Board and the other federal banking and securities regulators on how to implement an effective regulatory framework for these and other fintech innovations.
(From the Senate Finance Committee QFRs, 21 Jan 2021)
I’m pretty certain the largest financier of terrorism on the planet won’t be somebody with some Bitcoin.
An observation which could be garbage but might be worth a punt on. Seems every night BTC drops when the Asian market is active and then pumps again when European but particularly US market comes on line. Fairly reliable trend that I can see. Might be worth buying the dip and selling the peak on a daily basis as it seems fairly transparent as to when these peaks and troughs will occur. This is not a tip at all but just something that seems to be going on at present.
Just be careful of Chinese New Year: I don’t think the trend follows the same pattern around that time IIRC
I think that is just a reflection that all the bitcoins are mined in China and as such Asia is a net seller, while Europe and the US are buyers.
If you are trying to trade this, it will usually lead to a series of small profits, followed by a catastrophic loss.
I don’t think there are enough bitcoins mined per day for that to be the cause. Current reward only gives 900/day and a quick check (on a single exchange, single currency pair) shows typical volumes in the thousands in any 6 hour trading period. Add that up across all exchanges and pairs then 900 would only be a small fraction of the total volume plus of course not all the 900 are mined in Asia and not all the 900 would be sold on exchanges anyway.
I’m on another forum where some members are very clued up on bitcoin and a few have tried this in the past. Very easy to get hammered if there’s a sudden pump or dump. I know you can set limits and the like but it’s risky territory imo
Does anyone use nexo.io to earn interest on their digital assets? Since I'm hodling mine for the long term, looks a good idea to earn extra on these platforms.
If they lend at 6% and pay out at 12% how do they make money? Am I missing something obvious?
I use Blockfi. Only hold a small amount in there so far. It pays in currency of choice. Nexo looks like a good option. Better rates, but interest is fiat only.
I just transferred some crypto in to try. 5% interest in the token or 7% in native NEXO token (which I chose). Going to see how it all works before moving further assets in. Would be nice to earn 8% on my GBP though!
Looking at the loan terms, if you want to take out a loan against your assets, you can get 50% loan at 11.9% APR. So thats how they make the money - its like 1% spread. I cant find any info if nexo or blockfi find other ways to generate interest while holding your crypto in custody.
Maybe by making off lending your holdings to people shorting the market?
That's what I'm expecting, just like banks do with your stock portfolio if you let them. I have no problems with that if I'm getting rewarded for providing market liquidity.
Sent from my EVR-L29 using Tapatalk
Some concerning reviews around including this one on trustpilot.
Nexo is a scam and has been a scam for 2 years. A year ago they liquidated most of their customers entire accounts! Now they removed the ability to repay XRP loans right before it crashed and sold their entire accounts at rock bottom to themselves! They advertise as a risk free non margin platform that will take small payments but instead are ran big a an ex felon! Also saying they are keeping 85% of the FXRP with no notice!!!!! Stay away!!!!!
Yep, just need to be careful if you plan to take out a loan, that you are comfortable with their LTV. If you crypto falls below the LTV (50-60% depending on the crypto), they can liquidate some of your assets to bring the LTV back to acceptable levels. I can see this as a problem when the crypto market take a big dump - as it did for XRP.
I have no plans to take out a loan, just to get the 8% interest. Anyways, I've put some in so lets see how it goes.
Those who are already investing in bitcoin at arms length, or seeking to do so, have probably already seen this but just in case. MicroStrategy yesterday "purchased approximately 314 bitcoins for $10.0 million in cash in accordance with its Treasury Reserve Policy, at an average price of approximately $31,808 per bitcoin. [They] now hold approximately 70,784 bitcoins."
https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/s...14708797464582
For more information on MicroStrategy Inc., the domain name hope.com is currently registered to them (no, really) and redirects to the bitcoin page on the company website.
They are increasing their holding by less than half a percent and that's worthy of a release?
The pumping continues relentlessly.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Can you hear a faint sound of digging when you switch your NAS on? If so there may be some illicit mining which you need to sort out.
Switched off my NAS for good after putting in place this little gem - hope no family goes hungry because of it.
Managed to divest myself of some more Argo today at what I paid for it after the mini rally. I've still got some but a far more modest percentage of my portfolio. I saw the $$$ signs and had gone in far too heavily than I could deal with and a huge loss would have been a disaster for my portfolio.
Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
Bitcoin getting hammered at the moment.
10% off already today. Well below 30,000.
https://www.dailyfx.com/bitcoin
The whole financial markets seem on edge today. Maybe the Fed is about to slap them a little at their meeting today.
DeFi space could really start moving. A lot of people unhappy with the behaviour of the exchanges.
Unintended consequences?
What an interesting January!
Big jump this morning - up nearly $4k in half an hour.
It wouldn't be a show without Punch, as my mother was inclined to dismissively observe.
Not just BTC. ETH up 6%, Stellar 22% and XRP 10%
Following.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Argo Blockchain PLC have been doing well off the back of crypto rises, might be worth a punt for those with punt money..
ETH ATH today. Looks like a run up is on the cards.
Sadly only a dollar high not a BTC high ... still maybe time to get rid of the last of it.
True, plan to switch some gains into BTC this month. Treating this as opportunity to stack Sats.
Another $10 mio yesterday. The tempo does appear to have abated though.
Date BTC Price Paid 11/08/2020 21,454 $250m 14/09/2020 16,796 $175m 05/12/2020 2,574 $50m 21/12/2020 29,646 $650m 22/01/2021 314 $10m 02/02/2021 295 $10m
Perhaps MJS has opted for a spell of pound dollar cost averaging.
Whilst there seems to be a bit of a lull over on 'When Stonks...', here's a quick update on how the /TzUkBets are progressing.
Now with new added value "Bollinger Bands". Nope me neither, but they certainly sound cool. Perhaps someone would care to comment on their utility (if any) in this particular context.
MSTR doing very nicely for me and the kids. 10 year highs - nowhere near the $3130 ATH it hit during the dot com bubble though!Another $10 mio yesterday. The tempo does appear to have abated though.
Date BTC Price Paid 11/08/2020 21,454 $250m 14/09/2020 16,796 $175m 05/12/2020 2,574 $50m 21/12/2020 29,646 $650m 22/01/2021 314 $10m 02/02/2021 295 $10m
Perhaps MJS has opted for a spell of pound dollar cost averaging.
Whilst there seems to be a bit of a lull over on 'When Stonks...', here's a quick update on how the /TzUkBets are progressing.
Now with new added value "Bollinger Bands". Nope me neither, but they certainly sound cool. Perhaps someone would care to comment on their utility (if any) in this particular context.
Current price is higher than when Bitcoin went over 40k - lots of money flowing into MSTR. Is it institutions? Is it British investors using it as a proxy since the FCA ban?
Michael Saylor ran his Bitcoin for Corporations event today too.
No comment about the publicity stunt of buying BTC, but the Bollinger bands are supposed to give you a feeling if and when the movement starts being stretched. For something as notoriously volatile as BTC, I would rather set it to 2 or even 3 STDs around the mid (seeing you have 2 STDs already)
Not a very strong directional indicator (actually none at all), just one to help finding buying and selling points.
After vowing to stay off Twitter for a while, Elon Musk returned today high as a kite to pump Dogecoin - which has promptly jumped by 75%.
I wonder how long until the SEC has this guy arrested for his blatant pumps and insider trading. This is a mockery of the financial system.
Still confident here :-)
I agree with you, it is blatant, but it’s how to separate him from the thousands of investor forums and platforms that advise on stocks, is there a fundamental difference or is it just the Musk factor? Can he be singled out just because he is a influencer is what I’m asking.
Cheers..
Jase
Yes clearly - he knows that he will move markets because the gullible are following every word he says. Especially when he or his friends are loading up first. If that connection can be made, it could be prison time.
Which isn't a description of the coin itself that I believe its creators and other advocates would necessarily find too abhorrent.
http://foundation.dogecoin.com/
Like Papa Musk himself though it has certainly attracted its share of controversy.
https://www.coindesk.com/top-5-dogecoin-pumps
Posting Permissions
