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  1. #3501
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    Doge must be worth a punt at 0.17? Only takes one tweet from his lordship to send it flying
    Buy some, document the journey. Looking forward to it.
    #plantpot

  2. #3502
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    Wow...How low can it go...exciting times...could be some good new memes.
    Last edited by Passenger; 22nd June 2021 at 13:59.

  3. #3503
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    I am selling more BTC at $30.2
    #plantpot

  4. #3504
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I am selling more BTC at $30.2
    Change of plan.

    Just looked at technicals and this is close to capitulation/wash-out. Layering buy orders at $28.9, $27.9, $26.9 and $25.9 to go long for a bounce. Don't think it's going to be as powerful as last time, but I expect a reaction.
    #plantpot

  5. #3505
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    I haven’t checked since this morning (mines showing in gbp) but was down to almost 20k for btc, someone said it already but I imagine doge is worth a punt for a quick profit at that price


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  6. #3506
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    Received my BTC buy order at $28.9 but none of the others - still short.

    Bought MSTR at $522, selling again here at $545.
    #plantpot

  7. #3507
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    Over 32k again

    Love it or hate it, it’s great fun!

  8. #3508
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    For those interested, quick recap of my Binance futures trading activity.

    It all started with this post, which opened my eyes to off-exchange futures trading. I am a prolific futures trader, been doing it for years mainly on stock indices. Have some experience with BTC futures, but don't like the minimum amount of 5 BTC for the CME futures and the new 0.1 BTC futures are both illiquid and too small. When I looked into the Binance futures, I liked their attitude towards risk, they allow maximum leverage with rather low collateral (there is some risk with that which I won't go into now, but given my small trading scale in cryptos I can easily live with that). For a test run, I wired EUR 1,000 to Binance which arrived within a day.

    My first position was a short and BTC nicely started dropping immediately. I set my stoploss to protect my initial capital and let it run. Within days I had a 700% profit, but still saw this as a game rather than real trading so just sat and watched as the price retraced and I was stopped out with 0% performance.

    I then almost forgot about it, until the selloff on 8 June, when I suddenly became interested to buy for a bounce. I did some homework and realised I did not want to trade the standard BTC/USDT future as it pays out in tethers, which I think are the weakest link of the whole crypto complex (and which according to my main scenario will bring down BTC). First I traded in their BTC/USD-cash futures, but they are very illiquid and show large bid/offer spreads. So I researched their coin-based futures and found them acceptable. Next step, I had to transfer my cash collateral into bitcoin and was all set for trading.

    So I ended 8 June with my first long position in coin-based BTC/USD contracts and the will to turn my EUR 1,000 into a million (haha). Maybe not a million, but I was going to take this dead serious and wouldn't yolo it away just because it was tiny money. Was it possible to multiply capital given a very volatile underlying and an exchange willing to provide huge leverage? We are about to find out.

    My initial long position was nice, but I ended up whip-sawing some of it with a short and then reversed into long again, but then I sold at $40k and went short. Covered part of my short today at $29k, still short some.

    Two weeks later, I have turned the EUR 1,000 into BTC 0.297 (= EUR 8,131), a performance of 713%. I will update this periodically going forward.

    #plantpot

  9. #3509
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    Congratulations and thanks for posting the backgrounder

  10. #3510
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    Wow. Great work so far!

    Wish I knew how to trade like that.

  11. #3511
    Raffe's honesty has shone through from the beginning. Thank you

  12. #3512
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    For those interested, quick recap of my Binance futures trading activity.
    Well played my pizza friend, wish I had the knowledge & skill to have achieved this; read up on short positions & clearly out of my depth to attack with any confidence.

    Taking any external investors on a Commission basis? :)


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  13. #3513
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    #plantpot

  14. #3514
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Buy some, document the journey. Looking forward to it.
    No thanks!

  15. #3515
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    Putting some numbers to the futures, makes it easier:

    The coin-based futures are expressed as USD notional (as they settle in bitcoin). One contract is $100. So if I trade 100 contracts, I have a notional $10k exposure which will settle into a bitcoin profit or loss.

    I was short 350 contracts (a bit more than one bitcoin) going into yesterday, bought back 200 contracts below $30k and remained short 150 contracts (was initially planning to flip into long during washout sell, which never happened). I sold another 100 contracts at $34.2 overnight, now short again 250 contracts (0.75 bitcoin). Looking to short more, but want to see how the price develops first (risk of dead-cat bounce to $37 IMHO).

    Account value: 0.2796 BTC (= EUR 7,900), up 690%.

    Let the games continue!

    #plantpot

  16. #3516
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    Fascinating this!

    I've spot traded tiny amounts over the years, I wish my brain understood what your doing with futures

    I'd make one trade and get rinsed

  17. #3517
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    Thank you for the explanation, made it much easier to follow, but I’m sure I get it all wrong.

    How much time are you actively watching the markets to make your decisions?


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  18. #3518
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mj2k View Post
    Thank you for the explanation, made it much easier to follow, but I’m sure I get it all wrong.

    How much time are you actively watching the markets to make your decisions?


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    It varies over the day. Have a screen with rates up all day while I go on about my business and am lucky enough to be flexible to give it attention if and when I need to.

    But sometimes, I am caught off-guard like everybody else. The bitcoin bounce yesterday happened when I was picking up my daughter from school, one of the reasons why I wasn't quick enough to buy when it took off from $30k.
    #plantpot

  19. #3519
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    I must admit Raffe you clearly are amazing at this, it’s really interesting to read about it


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  20. #3520
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    Thanks to whoever mentioned Doge yesterday, when I checked it was at 12p… It’s steadily climbing again, I’d like it to reach 17 and I’ll be a happy man


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  21. #3521
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    It varies over the day. Have a screen with rates up all day while I go on about my business and am lucky enough to be flexible to give it attention if and when I need to.

    But sometimes, I am caught off-guard like everybody else. The bitcoin bounce yesterday happened when I was picking up my daughter from school, one of the reasons why I wasn't quick enough to buy when it took off from $30k.
    Out of interest how do you tell if it is a bounce or just a temporary blip? I'm guessing there is no way to be 100% sure but are there indicators you look for that tell you a rally may last a while instead of a momentary bounce and then down again? And vice-versa when shorting of course

  22. #3522
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    Nope.
    #plantpot

  23. #3523
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Nope.
    Ok, so much is based on hunchwork and experience of understanding how markets react to certain triggers I assume? You aren't charting anything basically?

  24. #3524
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    I am using Bollinger bands to identify areas of likely reversal or exhaustion and sometimes I use trendline analysis of others, but never my own simply because I am not good at it.
    #plantpot

  25. #3525
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I am using Bollinger bands to identify areas of likely reversal or exhaustion and sometimes I use trendline analysis of others, but never my own simply because I am not good at it.
    Ok cool thanks. Good luck.

  26. #3526
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    The more I use technical analysis for BTC price prediction the more I understand that it doesn't usually work. Coffee-leaved guessing gives better results There are not so many analytical tools which can help to make up one's mind whether to buy a coin or to sell it :(
    Talking about the tools I used I would point out this one. Quite dependable one among others.
    Last edited by Owren; 2nd July 2021 at 19:13.

  27. #3527
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    Quote Originally Posted by Owren View Post
    The more I use technical analysis for BTC price prediction the more I understand that it doesn't usually work. Coffee-leaved guessing gives better results
    Same for most I think, have you consulted the tarot cards yet


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  28. #3528
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    I know people who are making a living from technical analysis. I can't, but others do.

    I am a very happy user of their analysis. It helps me a lot to improve my trading. Normal risk management always applies.
    #plantpot

  29. #3529
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I know people who are making a living from technical analysis. I can't, but others do.

    I am a very happy user of their analysis. It helps me a lot to improve my trading. Normal risk management always applies.
    My finance friends are not as useful.


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  30. #3530
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    Just closed my short at $33,073 - looking for higher re-entry.

    Balance 0.3003 BTC = EUR 8,331

    Also bought back half of my MSTR short at $556
    #plantpot

  31. #3531
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    Raffe - thanks for sharing, really interesting insights.

  32. #3532
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    Just went long bitcoin $33.1 with a stop just below $32k
    #plantpot

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  34. #3534
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    He has been arrested years ago and released nothing at the time.

    But by all means, share some flunky conspiracies if that's what gets you going. Next stop "Epstein didn't kill himself", followed by Patrick Byrne's "naked shortselling" conspiracy.

    Oh, wait.
    #plantpot

  35. #3535
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    He has been arrested years ago and released nothing at the time.

    But by all means, share some flunky conspiracies if that's what gets you going. Next stop "Epstein didn't kill himself", followed by Patrick Byrne's "naked shortselling" conspiracy.

    Oh, wait.
    Lolz..

    Calm down Raffe, it’s almost the weekend.
    Last edited by demonloop; 24th June 2021 at 09:59.

  36. #3536
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Just went long bitcoin $33.1 with a stop just below $32k
    Just pulled the stop up to $33.9
    #plantpot

  37. #3537
    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post



  38. #3538
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Just pulled the stop up to $33.9
    Looks like it will trigger the stop any minute. Very disappointing momentum after hitting 35.5k only a few hours ago.

    Not sure what to think of this, if it takes out the stop I think I will sit on the side and wait for what's coming.
    #plantpot

  39. #3539
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Looks like it will trigger the stop any minute. Very disappointing momentum after hitting 35.5k only a few hours ago.

    Not sure what to think of this, if it takes out the stop I think I will sit on the side and wait for what's coming.
    You forecast a Tether meltdown this month ... do you think it will happen?

  40. #3540
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    You forecast a Tether meltdown this month ... do you think it will happen?
    We got almost a week left. It can still happen, but with every passing day it becomes less likely.

    But I have zero doubt it will happen, only question is which month.


    BTW, stopped out of my long position at $33,863 with an account balance of 0.3133 BTC = EUR 8,812

    * Edit: Just went a small position short at $33.7, 100 contracts only to start.
    Last edited by Raffe; 25th June 2021 at 12:06.
    #plantpot

  41. #3541
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    We got almost a week left. It can still happen, but with every passing day it becomes less likely.

    But I have zero doubt it will happen, only question is which month.


    BTW, stopped out of my long position at $33,863 with an account balance of 0.3133 BTC = EUR 8,812

    * Edit: Just went a small position short at $33.7, 100 contracts only to start.
    6169 BTC being shorted on Bitfinex (and rising quickly)

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/2KdE5OEs/

  42. #3542
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    Quote Originally Posted by benwisback View Post
    6169 BTC being shorted on Bitfinex (and rising quickly)

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/2KdE5OEs/
    Yes I saw that. Still a small number versus the longs but this seems to be one account.

    Selling more here 33620
    #plantpot

  43. #3543
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    Watch $32k go and the next stop is $25k.

    Selling a lot more if/when $32 breaks.
    #plantpot

  44. #3544
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    Kabooom!

    Sold another 400 contracts at $32.2 and $31.8, now short 600 contracts (about 2 BTC). I put a stop for half of that position at $32.8 and the rest at $34

    #plantpot

  45. #3545
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    Is that good or bad news for crypto?

    Just reported minutes ago, don't think it's been widely spread yet.

    #plantpot

  46. #3546
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    Jemima knows:

    As someone who has written about crypto on and off for more than six years, I have become used to the endless armies of zealots and trolls who harangue me every time I write anything vaguely critical of bitcoin. I consider such goading annoying but part of the job, and I tend to ignore it.

    But recently I’ve been struck by one increasingly common jibe, because it inadvertently undermines the supposedly altruistic aims of the bitcoin brigade: “Have Fun Staying Poor.” This meme has become so common in cryptoland that a song has been written in its honour; you can even buy T-shirts emblazoned with the phrase. The taunt is directed at so-called “no-coiners” like me whenever we express scepticism. Whether or not our criticism is warranted is irrelevant. The thinking is that because the price is so obviously going to keep going up forever, those of us who don’t buy into it are going to be mired in poverty while those who invested get filthy rich.

    If such a system sounds reminiscent of a Ponzi scheme, that’s because it is. Although some of the traditional characteristics — such as a head or central administrator or the existence of cash transfers — are lacking in bitcoin, others are not. Those who get in at the start must continuously draw in new believers to keep the whole thing going. Many of them market themselves as “crypto experts”, pushing the currencies as a solution to a host of financial and economic issues they often have no expertise in. As prominent bitcoiner Antony “Pomp” Pompliano unashamedly tweeted to his almost 1m followers recently, “Every bull market has to indoctrinate the new class of crypto enthusiasts”.

    “Technically it doesn’t work quite like a Ponzi, but you get the same net result,” says Martin Walker, director of banking and finance at the Center For Evidence-Based Management. “The brilliance of the whole crypto scam is that you don’t actually have to generate any income to pay anyone, so you don’t run out of money because you’re making people believe in ‘number go up’.” What the bitcoiners never explain — and some don’t seem to quite understand — is that this is a zero-sum game: we can’t all get rich from it. But if you listen to “expert commentary”, there is no acknowledgment of this, nor of the way the system is skewed to enrich those at the top of the pile. Quite the opposite, in fact — analysis is always about “democratising finance”, “increasing economic freedom”, or bringing the fight to the evil central bankers intent on inflating away the value of our money.

    When El Salvador recently announced that it was making bitcoin legal tender, my inbox was flooded with analysis on how this would increase financial inclusion, foster economic growth and, of course, boost the price of bitcoin.

    The crypto experts filling up my inbox never seem to mention the fact that more than 89 per cent of the 21m bitcoins that will ever exist have already been created, or “mined”, and are sitting in other people’s wallets ready to be flipped to a newcomer for a profit. Nor do they bother with the huge wealth disparity that already exists in crypto — a recent report by Glassnode found that 2 per cent of “network entities” control almost three-quarters of all bitcoin. “Inequality in bitcoin is far worse than in any fiat currency, and as it is independent of taxation, there is no means of redistributing it,” says Frances Coppola, a finance and economics commentator. So why does the commentary miss all this? The problem is that “crypto experts” have usually garnered their “expertise” by having skin in the game. It is rare to find one who is not a crypto investor, and who therefore is not financially motivated to keep pumping up the price.

    Pompliano reckons this is a reason to listen to such voices, recently tweeting that “you should always ignore people who have no skin in the game”. But he is just the type of “expert” that should not be trusted: if bitcoin ever became widely adopted, it would require a great many more people to buy it from those who already own it, turning longtime holders like him into the new super-rich global elite. Fortunately for all of us, there are so many other problems with bitcoin — not least its thousands of rivals — that this is never going to happen.

    Financial Times
    #plantpot

  47. #3547
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    Quote Originally Posted by benwisback View Post
    6169 BTC being shorted on Bitfinex (and rising quickly)

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/2KdE5OEs/
    24k now. Big algo increasing position over time.

    No idea if that is bullish or bearish. If they are net short, it could be bullish in case they are forced to unwind. If they just build this against a whale holding, it is very bearish.


    #plantpot

  48. #3548
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Kabooom!

    Sold another 400 contracts at $32.2 and $31.8, now short 600 contracts (about 2 BTC). I put a stop for half of that position at $32.8 and the rest at $34
    Looks like I have been to bearish here, it's plain refusing to die here and now.

    Took 200 contracts off at $32.1, don't want to be forced into a decision when liquidity gets tight later during the evening.
    #plantpot

  49. #3549
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    The Fed talking about a potential future crisis - made me actually laugh out loud!

    The last time they were told about a potential future crisis did they act? Or even talk about it? Or did they dismiss it as nonsense?

    Wonder what’s different this time?

  50. #3550
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    The Fed talking about a potential future crisis - made me actually laugh out loud!

    The last time they were told about a potential future crisis did they act? Or even talk about it? Or did they dismiss it as nonsense?

    Wonder what’s different this time?
    What's difference?

    They will shut the thing down. That's what's different.
    #plantpot

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