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  1. #3401
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    My knowledge on what I’m about to say is very limited so I may have got this completely wrong. . .

    I’ve watched the odd YouTube video of Gentlemen Timepiece, watch dealers from Dallas who are recording their activities weekly on YouTube. They ‘appear’ to be doing well. Anyway last week they went to the Bitcoin convention in Miami and sold around 1/2 a million dollars worth of watches. Quite a few paid with Bitcoin. The guy that owns the company was talking about his Coinbase pro account and how he was charged 2,500 dollars in fees but made 2,600 on the price so was up. . . . I just thought are they playing Russian roulette with taking the payment in Bitcoin? If there was sudden negative market movement they could lose a fortune before getting it out? As I said I may have got this totally wrong but if I haven’t then it’s just gambling.

  2. #3402
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I think there’s more fuss over it than is necessary.


    It’s not like they’re dumping USD and switching to BTC, like the EU did when they all switched to the Euro (which was also rather volatile)
    You really have no idea what you are talking about.

    The EU did nothing, it was some of the member states who decided to adopt the retro. None of them abandoned their legacy currency, they all remain legal tender until today.

    And to say the Euro was volatile is really the most stupid thing I have ever heard, the rates were fixed four years before cash adoption and where the same that applied for ten years before during the ERM system.
    #plantpot

  3. #3403
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    The price of a euro compared to a Franc was a joke when they switched over. I was in France skiing the day the change happened. One day our lunch cost us Ł50 in francs, the next day it was about Ł80 in euros.

    I’d say that’s quite volatile.



    ETA - And you’re right, I don’t express to know what I’m talking about. Just like most others on this thread, we’re all hear you learn and discuss.
    Last edited by mr noble; 12th June 2021 at 19:55.

  4. #3404
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    The price of a euro compared to a Franc was a joke when they switched over. I was in France skiing the day the change happened. One day our lunch cost us Ł50 in francs, the next day it was about Ł80 in euros.

    I’d say that’s quite volatile.



    ETA - And you’re right, I don’t express to know what I’m talking about. Just like most others on this thread, we’re all hear you learn and discuss.
    LOL.

    The weight of the French Franc in the ECU was static between 1989 and 1998, when the ECU was exchanged 1:1 against the Euro. All EUR constituent rates were fixed on 31 December 1998 and haven't changed since (cannot legally change). The ERM (European Monetary System) made sure that volatility between the various members' currencies (and ECU constituents) was basically zero for years before the conversion into the Euro - with the exception of the British Pound, which had left the ERM voluntarily in 1992 but remained an ECU constituent until it was replaced by the Euro.

    So volatility on changeover 31/12 versus 01/01 was exactly zero, even against the pound simply for the fact that exchange markets were closed for New Years Day.

    There may be a lot of reasons why a restaurant in France may have charged you a higher price for your lunch from one day to another, but exchange rate volatility was not one of them. Maybe you had an extra bottle of wine or simply ate another dish?
    #plantpot

  5. #3405
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    I know nothing about currency fluctuations and even less about crypto. But one thing that can explain Mr Noble unpleasant surprise is that indeed many shops used the opportunity to hike up their prices. As 1 euro was worth something between 6 and 7 francs, the amount in euros was significantly smaller anyway and people were confused so the temptation was too strong to resist. Add to that, that smaller priced items increased because the smaller currency unit was over 6 times greater than the previous smaller unit.
    'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.

  6. #3406
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saint-Just View Post
    I know nothing about currency fluctuations and even less about crypto. But one thing that can explain Mr Noble unpleasant surprise is that indeed many shops used the opportunity to hike up their prices. As 1 euro was worth something between 6 and 7 francs, the amount in euros was significantly smaller anyway and people were confused so the temptation was too strong to resist. Add to that, that smaller priced items increased because the smaller currency unit was over 6 times greater than the previous smaller unit.
    It may well be that some restaurant owners had fund with screwing British tourists on the occasion, especially as the changeover happened on New Years Day and customers were probably still hungover at lunchtime.

    But that's neither volatility nor inflation, it's just stupidity.
    #plantpot

  7. #3407
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    Or greed
    'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.

  8. #3408
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saint-Just View Post
    Or greed
    One man's greed is another man's stupidity.
    #plantpot

  9. #3409
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    One man's greed is another man's stupidity.

    Not usually much choice on a mountain to shop around so I’m sure a few fell victim to others exploiting the euro roll out.

  10. #3410
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    One man's greed is another man's stupidity.
    Now I'm being called stupid as well as LOLled at and told I have no idea.

    I can see why you have more foes than friends around these parts.

  11. #3411
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    Back on topic.....



    A friend sent me this link.


    Liquidity is often mentioned in the Bitcoin markets. Another term I knew the meaning of but had no clue how it worked in relation to market levels.


    This chap gives a good summary in twitter.


    https://twitter.com/daancrypto/statu...134968321?s=21

  12. #3412
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Now I'm being called stupid as well as LOLled at and told I have no idea.

    I can see why you have more foes than friends around these parts.
    You gotta admit it was a particularly stupid post. If anything, that would have been inflation rather than FX volatility - but it was neither of the two. If you can stand being called out for what you post, maybe sanity-check your post before you press the send button?

    Quite happy with the foe-to-friend ratio as it is.
    #plantpot

  13. #3413
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    I freely admit that my Euro/GBP post didn't have much relevance to volatility, and that I was well off on a tangent.

    The tangent was already well off from the original point though, which I'm pretty sure was something to do with BTC. Can't remember now.




    We can all kiss and make up and I'll carry on learning and try to remember to think before I post my usual drivel.



    [Heading back out to the pool* with my daughter] [*pool cost Ł6 in Tesco]
    Last edited by mr noble; 13th June 2021 at 13:24.

  14. #3414
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    [Heading back out to the pool* with my daughter] [*pool cost Ł6 in Tesco]
    I'm beginning to have some difficulty keeping up here as we seem to have jumped track again, this time to liquidity.

    I hope you bought plenty of sun cream* for her at the same time. Looking like she may be needing it over the next few days.

    *Tesco Childrens Sun Spray Spf 50.

  15. #3415
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    BTC at $39k now: looking for final push to $40k overnight to unload my longs and go short for the next sell-off and eventual break below $30k.

    Last edited by Raffe; 13th June 2021 at 23:22.
    #plantpot

  16. #3416
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    Small short (one third) at $40,300 now, want to wait how this develops before I consider adding to the position.
    #plantpot

  17. #3417
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Small short (one third) at $40,300 now, want to wait how this develops before I consider adding to the position.
    Get back in the stocks thread you gambling degenerate.

  18. #3418
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    Quote Originally Posted by studly View Post
    Get back in the stocks thread you gambling degenerate.
    Just woke up with a hangover?
    #plantpot

  19. #3419
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    [Microstrategy] are looking to borrow $400 million, which is a little higher than the total cash flow the company has generated during the last five years. And cash flow is falling like a stone, the software business is in fact dead so there will be almost no cash flow going forward. And the amount of impairments they are booking on their bitcoin holdings ($284 million) is in fact more than all of its cumulative earnings during the last ten years.

    This company is bankrupt and their CEO will go to prison.

    Now let's wait until Tesla announce their impairments - oh wait they won't do that until they announce their Q2 results in July (despite the obligation to report such things in ad-hoc).


    *** Just heard MSTR have been teasing this with a 6.25-6.50% cupon - I find that cheap, who in their right mind would lend money against a dying business for 6%??? ****
    Job jobbed.

    *Ding*

    Next.

  20. #3420
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    Job jobbed.

    *Ding*

    Next.
    Wondering if they were buying BTC today?

    Anyway, nice fade to $39.4 after hitting an earlier high of $41 - might have another go at $42/43, maybe even $45 before rugpull.
    #plantpot

  21. #3421
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    Why are you convinced there will be a rug pull?

    When there are no fundamentals available, it’s purely a guess. Isn’t it?

  22. #3422
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Wondering if they were buying BTC today?
    .
    If they buy their BTC “over the counter” direct from the back room of coinbase, the market price shouldn’t be affected.

    There was a rumour that Mr Saylor might buy this chunk on the normal market in order to move the price up, but that’s not how he’s bought so far.

    I’m hoping he doesn’t just spank the whole $488m in one purchase, as it’d probably be far more prudent for his shareholders if he averaged it in and/or waited for the next big dip.

    You’d think he’d have enough influence to create a big dip to buy on. He could ask his mate Elon to say something daft on Twitter, so the price dumps…..then buy his $488m chunk.

  23. #3423
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    Back room of Coinbase? What is that supposed to mean?

    No matter what exchange they pick, they need a seller and it's completely irrelevant where the trade happens. If there are no willing sellers, the price moves up. There are no venues with less impact than others.
    #plantpot

  24. #3424
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Why are you convinced there will be a rug pull?

    When there are no fundamentals available, it’s purely a guess. Isn’t it?
    The market has just moved up more than 30% in a week, it is more than stretched.

    Since you brought up fundamentals, care to name a single fundamental reason why bitcoin isn't zero?
    #plantpot

  25. #3425
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    I think (maybe for the first time) you’re wrong.

    The miners sell their bitcoins to the likes of Coinbase and Binance, who will sell them OTC to large buyers, via the “back room” at spot. That has little or no effect on the market price.

    Indeed, there’s nothing to stop someone approaching a miner and arranging to buy coins directly from them at whatever price they agree on. Again, no effect on the spot price.

    Similar to buying a large number of bars of gold from a gold dealer in Hatton garden. You’d pay the spot price at the time, but the purchase would have no effect on the market price on the day.


    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    …… care to name a single fundamental reason why bitcoin isn't zero?
    FOMO.
    Last edited by mr noble; 14th June 2021 at 19:45.

  26. #3426
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I think (maybe for the first time) you’re wrong.

    The miners sell their bitcoins to the likes of Coinbase and Binance, who will sell them OTC to large buyers, via the “back room” at spot. That has little or no effect on the market price.

    Indeed, there’s nothing to stop someone approaching a miner and arranging to buy coins directly from them at whatever price they agree on. Again, no effect on the spot price.

    Similar to buying a large number of bars of gold from a gold dealer in Hatton garden. You’d pay the spot price at the time, but the purchase would have no effect on the market price on the day.




    FOMO.
    Not how it works in the real world, chief.

    Neither for bitcoin, nor for gold.

    Coinbase has no backroom, no inventory and doesn't trade for their own book. They are an exchange.

    Trading large positions is an art of its own. When I managed teams of fund managers, we sometimes had positions that took weeks or months to build or unwind if we wanted to avoid creating market impact.

    There are no backrooms, why would any seller be interested to sell their stock cheap just because a large account needs to buy?
    #plantpot

  27. #3427
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Indeed, there’s nothing to stop someone approaching a miner and arranging to buy coins directly from them at whatever price they agree on. Again, no effect on the spot price.
    There are less than 900 bitcoins mined per day.

    And why would a miner sell to MSTR below market if they know that Saylir needs to buy and will squeeze the price upwards?


    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    FOMO.
    If that's the best 'fundamental' reason you can come up with, you'd better stop trading.
    #plantpot

  28. #3428
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    https://cryptoquant.com/overview/btc-exchange-flows


    Shows the amount of BTC available on all exchanges in real time.

    If you want to buy 10,000 BTC in one go, you’d have a terrible job trying to buy it on Coinbase like us mortals buy 0.01BTC. In fact, I’d guess it’d be an impossibility.

    You could only buy that amount direct OTC.

    I Am pretty sure MicroStrategy have used Coinbase OTC for all their purchases.

    Not sure who Tesla used.

  29. #3429
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    https://cryptoquant.com/overview/btc-exchange-flows


    Shows the amount of BTC available on all exchanges in real time.

    If you want to buy 10,000 BTC in one go, you’d have a terrible job trying to buy it on Coinbase like us mortals buy 0.01BTC. In fact, I’d guess it’d be an impossibility.

    You could only buy that amount direct OTC.

    I Am pretty sure MicroStrategy have used Coinbase OTC for all their purchases.

    Not sure who Tesla used.

    Sorry but you are posting complete nonsense.

    Coinbase owns no bitcoin. What do you think the information in the link provided shows?

    It shows nothing but the amount of bitcoin which Coinbase's clients are holding on the exchange as opposed to cold storage.



    If you look at the left hand axis, you'll see that the number of coins has basically not changed since a year ago (it has decreased by 400k BTC, while the price has about quadrupled so the net value of bitcoin in on-exchange wallets has more than trebled).
    #plantpot

  30. #3430
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    I didn’t mean that Coinbase themselves are sat there with thousands of BTC on their books. I mean they have an OTC counter that facilitates direct sales/purchases outside of the regular market. Usually between the miners and larger institutional buyers like Tesla/MSTR.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.c...torage%3famp=1

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/coint...-explained/amp



    And…..you’re looking at the first chart on the CryptoQuant site. If you look down the page at other charts, they have more detailed info about where coins are stored and the inflows/outflows from exchanges into and out of cold storage. Some really interesting data.

  31. #3431
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I didn’t mean that Coinbase themselves are sat there with thousands of BTC on their books. I mean they have an OTC counter that facilitates direct sales/purchases outside of the regular market. Usually between the miners and larger institutional buyers like Tesla/MSTR.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.c...torage%3famp=1

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/coint...-explained/amp



    And…..you’re looking at the first chart on the CryptoQuant site. If you look down the page at other charts, they have more detailed info about where coins are stored and the inflows/outflows from exchanges into and out of cold storage. Some really interesting data.
    It has no relevance. The real world analogy would be that you'd claim it would make a difference where stock are kept for the market impact which a buy or sell transaction has.

    For every buy, you need a willing seller. If there are none, the price moves up or down. It isn't difficult, and it is completely irrelevant if the coins are kept an on-exchange wallet or offline.

    Trust me, I started my career in Finance as a prop trader, that was 30 years ago. I have traded everything, from currencies over stocks, bonds, derivatives and ETFs. It's always the same: every buyer, large or small, needs a seller.
    #plantpot

  32. #3432
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    Even if Coinbase held coins they would still have to agree to sell them to Saylor

    And why would they, at below market value?

    They could just filter them into the market if they wished

    I have no idea if they are allowed to hold coins themselves, if they are allowed I imagine they have a large hodling

  33. #3433
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    I have no idea if they are allowed to hold coins themselves, if they are allowed I imagine they have a large hodling
    They are not regulated, they can own what they want.

    According to their last balance sheet, they own 4,487 BTC, worth about $180 mio as of today (0.3% of their market cap).

    But this is not inventory for trading, they claim to have had these since 2012.
    #plantpot

  34. #3434
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    They are not regulated, they can own what they want.

    According to their last balance sheet, they own 4,487 BTC, worth about $180 mio as of today (0.3% of their market cap).

    But this is not inventory for trading, they claim to have had these since 2012.
    That's interesting Raffe, thanks!

  35. #3435
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    The Brutal Truth About Bitcoin
    By Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

    Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency, has been on a wild ride since its creation in 2009. Earlier this year, the price of one Bitcoin surged to over $60,000, an eightfold increase in 12 months. Then it fell to half that value in just a few weeks. Values of other cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin have risen and fallen even more sharply, often based just on Elon Musk’s tweets. Even after the recent fall in their prices, the total market value of all cryptocurrencies now exceeds $1.5 trillion, a staggering amount for virtual objects that are nothing more than computer code.

    Are cryptocurrencies the wave of the future and should you be using and investing in them? And do the massive swings in their prices — nearly $1 trillion was wiped off the their total value in May — portend trouble for the financial system?

    Bitcoin was created (by a person or group that remains unidentified to this day) as a way to conduct transactions without the intervention of a trusted third party, such as a central bank or financial institution. Its emergence amid the global financial crisis, which shook trust in banks and even governments, was perfectly timed. Bitcoin enabled transactions using only digital identities, granting users some degree of anonymity. This made Bitcoin the preferred currency for illicit activities, including recent ransomware attacks. It powered the shadowy darknet of illegal online commerce much like PayPal helped the rise of eBay by making payments easier.

    As it grew in popularity, Bitcoin became cumbersome, slow, and expensive to use. It takes about 10 minutes to validate most transactions using the cryptocurrency and the transaction fee has been at a median of about $20 this year. Bitcoin’s unstable value has also made it an unviable medium of exchange. It is as though your $10 bill could buy you a beer on one day and a bottle of fine wine on another.

    Moreover, it has become clear that Bitcoin does not offer true anonymity. The government’s success in tracking and retrieving part of the Bitcoin ransom paid to the hacking collective DarkSide in the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack has heightened doubts about the security and nontraceability of Bitcoin transactions.

    While Bitcoin has failed in its stated objectives, it has become a speculative investment. This is puzzling. It has no intrinsic value and is not backed by anything. Bitcoin devotees will tell you that, like gold, its value comes from its scarcity — Bitcoin’s computer algorithm mandates a fixed cap of 21 million digital coins (nearly 19 million have been created so far). But scarcity by itself can hardly be a source of value. Bitcoin investors seem to be relying on the greater fool theory — all you need to profit from an investment is to find someone willing to buy the asset at an even higher price.

    Despite their high valuations on paper, a collapse of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is unlikely to rattle the financial system. Banks have mostly stayed on the sidelines. As with any speculative bubble, naďve investors who come to the party late are at greatest risk of losses. The government should certainly caution retail investors that, much like in the GameStop saga, they act at their own peril. Securities that enable speculation on Bitcoin prices are already regulated, but there is not much more the government can or ought to do.

    Bitcoin is not innocuous. Transactions are processed by “miners” using massive amounts of computing power in return for rewards in the form of Bitcoin. By some estimates, the Bitcoin network consumes as much energy as entire countries like Argentina and Norway, not to mention the mountains of electronic waste from specialized machines used for such mining operations that burn out rapidly.

    Whatever Bitcoin’s eventual fate, its blockchain technology is truly ingenious and groundbreaking. Bitcoin has shown how programs running on networks of computers can be harnessed to securely conduct payments, within and between countries, without relying on avaricious financial institutions that charge high fees. For migrant workers sending remittances back to their home countries, for instance, such fees are a major burden. Technologies that make payments cheaper, quicker and easier to track would benefit consumers and businesses, facilitating both domestic and international commerce.

    The technology is not without risks. Facebook plans to issue its own cryptocurrency called Diem intended to make digital payments easier. Unlike Bitcoin, Diem would be fully backed by reserves of U.S. dollars or other major currencies, ensuring stable value. But, as with its other ostensibly high-minded initiatives, Facebook can hardly be trusted to put the public’s welfare above its own. The prospect of multinational corporations one day issuing their own unbacked cryptocurrencies worldwide is deeply disquieting. Such currencies won’t threaten the U.S. dollar, but could wipe out the currencies of smaller and less developed countries.

    Variants of Bitcoin’s technology are also making many financial products and services available to the masses at low cost, directly connecting savers and borrowers. These developments and the possibilities created by the new technologies have spurred central banks to consider issuing digital versions of their own currencies. China, Japan, and Sweden are already conducting trials of their digital currencies.

    Ironically, rather than truly democratizing finance, some of these innovations may exacerbate inequality. Unequal financial literacy and digital access might result in sophisticated investors garnering the benefits while the less well off, dazzled by new technologies, take on risks they do not fully comprehend. Computer algorithms could worsen entrenched racial and other biases in credit scoring and financial decisions, rather than reducing them. The ubiquity of digital payments could also destroy any remaining vestiges of privacy in our day-to-day lives.

    While Bitcoin’s roller-coaster prices garner attention, of far more consequence is the revolution in money and finance it has set off that will ultimately affect every one of us, for better and worse.

    NY Times
    #plantpot

  36. #3436

  37. #3437
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    #plantpot

  38. #3438
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Small short (one third) at $40,300 now, want to wait how this develops before I consider adding to the position.
    My only regret is that I never increased the position. Now I am short half a position and looking for a rally to sell into.

    $37.8 now.
    #plantpot

  39. #3439
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    What does half a position mean?

    And what is one third? (In original post). 1/3rd of a position?

  40. #3440
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    Saw this and thought it was pretty funny.


    The "No One Uses Bitcoin" Timeline:

    2010 - No one uses it.
    2012 - Only computer nerds use it.
    2013 - Only drug dealers use it.
    2014 - Only money launderers use it.
    2017 - Only gamblers use it.
    2020 - Only small companies use it.
    2021 - Only small countries use it.

  41. #3441
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    This thread should be renamed to better reflect what it’s now about. One man documenting how much he’s making shorting Bitcoin, and how happy he is doing it!


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  42. #3442
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ozzyb123 View Post
    This thread should be renamed to better reflect what it’s now about. One man documenting how much he’s making shorting Bitcoin, and how happy he is doing it!


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    ??

    The thread is s lively discussion about the merits of crypto and a running comment of news as it happens, with about half a dozen of active contributors.

    Besides that, I have been long bitcoin until three days ago and haven't mentioned how much I am making with my trading.

    What is your contribution to the thread?
    #plantpot

  43. #3443
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    What does half a position mean?

    And what is one third? (In original post). 1/3rd of a position?
    I have my usual size of position and most of the time scale into it with a couple of transactions over time.

    Here I have only done a small initial position, not a full one. The size of the position usually reflects my conviction, not necessarily only about the direction but also about the validity of the entry point.

    The current position is about half of my usual position, but only a third of my last long which was a bit bigger because I had high conviction.
    #plantpot

  44. #3444
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I have my usual size of position and most of the time scale into it with a couple of transactions over time.

    Here I have only done a small initial position, not a full one. The size of the position usually reflects my conviction, not necessarily only about the direction but also about the validity of the entry point.

    The current position is about half of my usual position, but only a third of my last long which was a bit bigger because I had high conviction.
    Ahhh I see. That makes sense. Thank you.

  45. #3445
    Craftsman
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    I leave it up to those eminently for qualified in the area to judge how accurate this is but I like this YouTube channel to give the basics:

    https://youtu.be/brABoguf7uc


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  46. #3446
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Since there doesn't seem to be a corrective rally, I have decided it's time to increase the short position.

    Selling some here at $37.3, looking to sell more later (higher or lower).
    #plantpot

  47. #3447
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    I think having both “sides” on the thread makes for good (if maybe sometimes a little forthright) discussion

  48. #3448
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    I think having both “sides” on the thread makes for good (if maybe sometimes a little forthright) discussion
    Yep
    #plantpot

  49. #3449
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Since there doesn't seem to be a corrective rally, I have decided it's time to increase the short position.

    Selling some here at $37.3, looking to sell more later (higher or lower).
    I’m expecting a rally over the weekend.

  50. #3450
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I’m expecting a rally over the weekend.
    I know, you are always expecting a rally.
    #plantpot

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