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Thread: Bitcoin

  1. #3351
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    Don't worry if you bought the 'top'.. it's only 1,100 days to the next halving.

    Sent from my EVR-L29 using Tapatalk

  2. #3352
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    A quick and cursory google would seem to suggest that the current average for high yield junk bonds is ~4%. Have I got that right?
    Yes, but this is junk˛.
    #plantpot

  3. #3353
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    Thnx.

  4. #3354
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    I bought half of my short back here, everybody is so bearish, I don't know who should be doing the selling for it to go lower.

    May have to correct a bit higher before the final collapse.
    #plantpot

  5. #3355
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I bought half of my short back here, everybody is so bearish, I don't know who should be doing the selling for it to go lower.

    May have to correct a bit higher before the final collapse.
    ^Smart me, closed half the position five minutes before the collapse.


    Edit: just closed my short on the dip, $31,829 - and went long!. Squeeze time.
    Last edited by Raffe; 8th June 2021 at 15:27.
    #plantpot

  6. #3356
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    Flabbergasted why?

    I just wondered how they got the private keys..
    Copied below from social media

    https://storage.courtlistener.com/re...379840.1.0.pdf

    "FBI Affidavit explaining how they ended up recovering ransomware bitcoins was released.
    The FBI watched the suspects try to launder the bitcoin through different addresses until the bitcoin landed on an exchange (the redacted section is the name of the exchange that the hackers used).
    From there, the FBI simply contacted the exchange and asked for the private key to the coins."

  7. #3357
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    ^Smart me, closed half the position five minutes before the collapse.


    Edit: just closed my short on the dip, $31,829 - and went long!. Squeeze time.
    Wish I understood what you are doing, but clearly know your onions! I bet the theory but wouldn’t know when / how to start & therefore better for me to not lose my cash through ineptitude.


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  8. #3358
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mj2k View Post
    Wish I understood what you are doing, but clearly know your onions! I bet the theory but wouldn’t know when / how to start & therefore better for me to not lose my cash through ineptitude.


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    Well this was an example how I screwed up, bought my short back before the drop (well half of it).
    #plantpot

  9. #3359
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mj2k View Post
    Wish I understood what you are doing, but clearly know your onions! I bet the theory but wouldn’t know when / how to start & therefore better for me to not lose my cash through ineptitude.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Presume this is like shorting stock.. taking someone’s investment and selling high.. buying the same amount back at a lower price and pocketing the difference… that’s how brokers earn money and options in companies anyway as I understand it, I’m not one by the way not even nearly


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  10. #3360
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKitega View Post
    Copied below from social media

    https://storage.courtlistener.com/re...379840.1.0.pdf

    "FBI Affidavit explaining how they ended up recovering ransomware bitcoins was released.
    The FBI watched the suspects try to launder the bitcoin through different addresses until the bitcoin landed on an exchange (the redacted section is the name of the exchange that the hackers used).
    From there, the FBI simply contacted the exchange and asked for the private key to the coins."
    If this is true, it reinforces the security aspect around Bitcoin / blockchain and the FBI got their stolen money. A win-win

  11. #3361
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    If this is true, it reinforces the security aspect around Bitcoin / blockchain and the FBI got their stolen money. A win-win
    I agree.

    What left me flabbergasted was that BTC dropped 5k on the news.

    Things that make you go "hmmmmm".
    #plantpot

  12. #3362
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    Does make you wonder how many other criminal hauls etc are now at risk as a lot of people are selling now


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  13. #3363
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    ^Smart me, closed half the position five minutes before the collapse.


    Edit: just closed my short on the dip, $31,829 - and went long!. Squeeze time.
    Traded BTC like a BOSS today! Well done Raffe. I took some in too but not confident the worst is over.

  14. #3364
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKitega View Post
    Traded BTC like a BOSS today! Well done Raffe. I took some in too but not confident the worst is over.
    I am quite sure the worst is still ahead of us. But when everybody is bearish, even the mega bulls, then it won't go down.

    Not sure where this is going, might fall over the cliff quite soon or extend to 38k-ish ( that would be nice). I think I will trail a stop loss and see where that gets me.
    #plantpot

  15. #3365
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Meanwhile, Micky Saylor is going all-in.

    First, a filing with the SEC describing how BTC-impairments have wiped out almost 80% of the company's equity. What now? Correct, buy more. When in trouble, double.

    So MicroStrategy is at the same time announcing that it is borrowing another $400 Mio to buy more BTC. I haven't seen the prospectus yet, but am very curious to see what sort of disclaimers it will take to get this past the lawyers. Just remember what AMC had to write last week.

    I reiterate my firm belief that MSTR will file for bankruptcy before 2021 is over. Their software-related revenues (= the core business) are quickly approaching zero, they are basically nothing but a highly loeveraged bitcoin ETF (with plenty of air-pocket in the NAV).

    Well it seems some think Mr Saylor knows his beans.

    His offering has been oversubscribed by 3 times, and he's increased the sale from $400m to $500m.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...&sref=WJKVI5nK

  16. #3366
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Well it seems some think Mr Saylor knows his beans.

    His offering has been oversubscribed by 3 times, and he's increased the sale from $400m to $500m.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...&sref=WJKVI5nK
    He knows some beans, like accounting fraud - which lead to a collapse in the share price of MSTR by 90% in two weeks back in the year 2000. He is also known to be a COVID denier and now he will show us how to play crypto markets. Don't forget, he has already gambled away 80% of the company's equity capital with his existing bitcoin bet. Funnily, that was just a quiet 8K filing on the same day he blasted the new bond offering into the world using all available media channels. And when bitcoin hits $20k it's lights out for MSTR.

    https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/...50769010057224
    Last edited by Raffe; 8th June 2021 at 21:37.
    #plantpot

  17. #3367
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    I am also quite sceptical about Mr Saylor. They say he is a Dotcom Bubble Looser #1. I wouldn't trust him and follow his tips as for what and when to buy on cryptomarket :) whom I trust on this market are analysts like the author of this article. I wasn't considering buying EOS but after reading the article decided to get some coins expecting their rapid growth in price :)
    Last edited by Owren; 10th June 2021 at 14:36.

  18. #3368
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    Here's Michael Saylor back in January arguing at length that he it is careless to use secured notes to buy volatile assets. It is right in the beginning of the video and he repeats and details it from 3m57s into the video.

    Guess what he is doing now? Issuing secured notes. No shit.





    My theory: he thinks he can use the $500 mio to prop up bitcoin and fix his issues with the existing bet. It's called 'doubling down' and never works. Never.
    #plantpot

  19. #3369
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    Wow. El Salvador's government has passed the Bitcoin adoption bill in to law. It will go into full effect in 90 days.

    Here's an extract from the President's twitter chat.....


    (Pinched off the ARB chat board). (Points 3 and 5 are indeed huge, if true)


    The President was in a twitter chat about the bill before it passed headlines are here with thanks to Reddit. 3 and 5 are huge.

    Edit 1: 100% chance it will pass they have 64 out of 84 votes

    Edit 2: Bill will go into full effect in 90 days

    Edit 3: “Every business must accept Bitcoin” - President

    Edit 4: “we want people to get familiar with bitcoin as a unit of account, 1 bitcoin=1 bitcoin” (in order to establish residency, need to invest 3 bitcoins into El Salvador, regardless of US dollar value)

    Edit 5: The president is meeting with IMF on Thursday.

    Edit 6: “We adopted the dollar in 2001 for investment reasons, we’re doing that on steroids with Bitcoin”

    Edit 7: “This is one of the things, that we all have to get behind, for the future of humanity, this is a game changer for the world, people might laugh about the size of our country, it doesn’t matter, we’re dreaming for the future”

    Edit 8: “You can use any wallet you want” there will be a government wallet/app developed by strike but not required. It will be as free as it gets.

    Edit 9: Jack Dorsey CEO of Twitter and Square has entered the room!!

    Edit 10: The dollars come to El Salvador from the Fed. The convertibility of dollars into bitcoin will be handled by the El Salvador government fund. El Salvador will buy the bitcoins from those who don’t want to take the volatility risk. Government will absorb the risk and hold the bitcoin.

    Edit 11: Government of El Salvador uses lots of geothermal energy. They lose energy by transporting that energy to cities. They want to promote mining bitcoin with the renewable geothermal energy to reduce loss of energy and create monetary value. HUGE! HE GETS IT!

    Edit 12: “I’m going to focus on making this succeed, that will create a domino effect”

    Edit 13: Mark Cuban not allowed to speak

    Edit 14: CHEERS THE BILL HAS PASSED!!!!

    Edit 15: $150,000,000 Bitcoin will be held in the trust fund

    Edit 16: THIS WILL ONLY BE BITCOIN, NO ALT-COINS

    Edit 17: El Salvador trending on Twitter, lots of headline names in the chat. Eric weinstein (Thiel Capital), mark Cuban, Charlie Lee, Tom Anderson (MySpace), jack dorsey, ambassadors to nations.

    Edit 18: The presidents brother is almost in tears. “People on the floor are clapping, this is hope for our country, our country needed this”

  20. #3370
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    Lets hope the Feds don't get their private keys..

  21. #3371
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    Thats pretty incredible really, gambling an entire countries future on speculation, make or break I guess.

    "$150,000,000 Bitcoin will be held in the trust fund" Isn't that a odd phrase?
    Cheers..
    Jase

  22. #3372
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Wow. El Salvador's government has passed the Bitcoin adoption bill in to law. It will go into full effect in 90 days.

    Here's an extract from the President's twitter chat.....


    (Pinched off the ARB chat board). (Points 3 and 5 are indeed huge, if true)


    The President was in a twitter chat about the bill before it passed headlines are here with thanks to Reddit. 3 and 5 are huge.

    Edit 1: 100% chance it will pass they have 64 out of 84 votes

    Edit 2: Bill will go into full effect in 90 days

    Edit 3: “Every business must accept Bitcoin” - President

    Edit 4: “we want people to get familiar with bitcoin as a unit of account, 1 bitcoin=1 bitcoin” (in order to establish residency, need to invest 3 bitcoins into El Salvador, regardless of US dollar value)

    Edit 5: The president is meeting with IMF on Thursday.

    Edit 6: “We adopted the dollar in 2001 for investment reasons, we’re doing that on steroids with Bitcoin”

    Edit 7: “This is one of the things, that we all have to get behind, for the future of humanity, this is a game changer for the world, people might laugh about the size of our country, it doesn’t matter, we’re dreaming for the future”

    Edit 8: “You can use any wallet you want” there will be a government wallet/app developed by strike but not required. It will be as free as it gets.

    Edit 9: Jack Dorsey CEO of Twitter and Square has entered the room!!

    Edit 10: The dollars come to El Salvador from the Fed. The convertibility of dollars into bitcoin will be handled by the El Salvador government fund. El Salvador will buy the bitcoins from those who don’t want to take the volatility risk. Government will absorb the risk and hold the bitcoin.

    Edit 11: Government of El Salvador uses lots of geothermal energy. They lose energy by transporting that energy to cities. They want to promote mining bitcoin with the renewable geothermal energy to reduce loss of energy and create monetary value. HUGE! HE GETS IT!

    Edit 12: “I’m going to focus on making this succeed, that will create a domino effect”

    Edit 13: Mark Cuban not allowed to speak

    Edit 14: CHEERS THE BILL HAS PASSED!!!!

    Edit 15: $150,000,000 Bitcoin will be held in the trust fund

    Edit 16: THIS WILL ONLY BE BITCOIN, NO ALT-COINS

    Edit 17: El Salvador trending on Twitter, lots of headline names in the chat. Eric weinstein (Thiel Capital), mark Cuban, Charlie Lee, Tom Anderson (MySpace), jack dorsey, ambassadors to nations.

    Edit 18: The presidents brother is almost in tears. “People on the floor are clapping, this is hope for our country, our country needed this”
    Nayib Bukele is quickly turning El Salvador into a dictatorship, he is already appointing judges at will and removing presidential term limits for himself. Great guy to cheer.

    My not-so-bold forecast: El Salvador will be using their new legal tender to turn the country into the global hotspot for bitcoin-related money laundering and Bukele and his gang of grifters will all turn out to be billionaires.
    #plantpot

  23. #3373
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I agree.

    What left me flabbergasted was that BTC dropped 5k on the news.

    Things that make you go "hmmmmm".
    It fell (I think) because the initial news suggested that the FBI had somehow “cracked” bitcoin private keys, when in fact it seems they simply traced the coins until they reached an address (i.e. an exchange) where the FBI could use a warrant to compel their return.

    Assuming that is what happened and the real story comes out then it is indeed positive - surely no one wants blackmailers to be successful.

    It is analogous to the drop that was seen on the false news about a double spend a few months ago, as it inaccurately implied a fundamental flaw in the protocol.

  24. #3374
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonM View Post
    Thats pretty incredible really, gambling an entire countries future on speculation, make or break I guess.

    "$150,000,000 Bitcoin will be held in the trust fund" Isn't that a odd phrase?
    Desperate stuff, as Raffe postulates the top tier will make out like bandits.

  25. #3375
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I am quite sure the worst is still ahead of us. But when everybody is bearish, even the mega bulls, then it won't go down.

    Not sure where this is going, might fall over the cliff quite soon or extend to 38k-ish ( that would be nice). I think I will trail a stop loss and see where that gets me.
    I have a feeling that it will be soon time to flip short again. $35k now, just pulled my stop really close to $34.1k
    #plantpot

  26. #3376
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I have a feeling that it will be soon time to flip short again. $35k now, just pulled my stop really close to $34.1k
    still in, pulling stop up to $36k.
    #plantpot

  27. #3377
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    still in, pulling stop up to $36k.
    Next stop MOON.

  28. #3378
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    Back browsing small islands.. 🚀

  29. #3379
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    Back browsing small islands.. 🚀
    Raffe definitely looking. 200x leverage at 31k.. oooh that's a pretty penny!

    Sent from my EVR-L29 using Tapatalk

  30. #3380
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    Stopped out last evening, but higher since (at highest getting close to original target of $38k).

    No complaints, though.
    #plantpot

  31. #3381
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    Plenty of use cases, though.
    #plantpot

  32. #3382
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Stopped out last evening, but higher since (at highest getting close to original target of $38k).

    No complaints, though.


    ** just shorted at $36,700
    #plantpot

  33. #3383
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    Shorting more @ $36.4


    China arrested over 1,100 people in a sweeping crackdown on the use of cryptocurrencies for money laundering, adding to signs it’s further reining in crypto-linked activities. Police busted more than 170 criminal groups that used cryptocurrencies to launder money in telecom scams to avoid being tracked down, the Ministry of Public Security said in a statement. The campaign spanned 23 provinces and cities, it added. Arrest figures were as of Wednesday afternoon.

    (...) China escalated its crypto crackdown this year after a frenzied surge in Bitcoin and other tokens at the beginning of 2021 heightened longstanding government concerns about the potential for fraud, money laundering and trading losses by individual investors. Regulators have so far stopped short of labeling individual trading illegal but the public security department will be involved in the crackdown, a person familiar with the matter had told Bloomberg last month.

    Searches for crypto exchanges on China’s Internet are currently being censored. Keyword searches for popular crypto exchanges like Binance, OKEx and Huobi on Internet services such as Baidu, Sogou, Zhihu and Weibo yielded no results as of Thursday afternoon.

    Bloomberg
    #plantpot

  34. #3384
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    Dooh.

    Coinbase Teams Up With 401(k) Provider to Offer Crypto
    Workers at participating companies could invest up to 5% of their account balances in cryptocurrency

    It's only a tiny tiny and completely meaningless fraction of the real 401k market, but never underestimate the power of a headline. Price jumped almost $1,000 in a few minutes.

    Maybe better long? Confused here. Willl close my short at $37k and go small long again.
    #plantpot

  35. #3385
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Shorting more @ $36.4


    China arrested over 1,100 people in a sweeping crackdown on the use of cryptocurrencies for money laundering, adding to signs it’s further reining in crypto-linked activities. Police busted more than 170 criminal groups that used cryptocurrencies to launder money in telecom scams to avoid being tracked down, the Ministry of Public Security said in a statement. The campaign spanned 23 provinces and cities, it added. Arrest figures were as of Wednesday afternoon.

    (...) China escalated its crypto crackdown this year after a frenzied surge in Bitcoin and other tokens at the beginning of 2021 heightened longstanding government concerns about the potential for fraud, money laundering and trading losses by individual investors. Regulators have so far stopped short of labeling individual trading illegal but the public security department will be involved in the crackdown, a person familiar with the matter had told Bloomberg last month.

    Searches for crypto exchanges on China’s Internet are currently being censored. Keyword searches for popular crypto exchanges like Binance, OKEx and Huobi on Internet services such as Baidu, Sogou, Zhihu and Weibo yielded no results as of Thursday afternoon.

    Bloomberg
    Yup saw the crackdown news the last couple days too.

    Raffe, are you using options, futures, or margin on binance to express your views?

  36. #3386
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKitega View Post
    Yup saw the crackdown news the last couple days too.

    Raffe, are you using options, futures, or margin on binance to express your views?
    Trading Binance futures.

    Make sure you pick coin-based futures (use BTC as collateral) because otherwise you might end up being stuck with Tether or USDc.
    #plantpot

  37. #3387
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Trading Binance futures.

    Make sure you pick coin-based futures (use BTC as collateral) because otherwise you might end up being stuck with Tether or USDc.
    OK thanks. Will try dabble a teeny bit.

  38. #3388
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKitega View Post
    OK thanks. Will try dabble a teeny bit.
    If you do the opposite of what Raffe says he’s done, one of you will always get it right. 👨🏼*🎓

  39. #3389
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    If you do the opposite of what Raffe says he’s done, one of you will always get it right. 👨🏼*🎓
    Haha what makes you think I'll do the opposite? I also sell BTC from time to time. De-risked my crypto at 55k so starting to slowly buy back to full position.

    Sent from my EVR-L29 using Tapatalk

  40. #3390
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    (...) go small long again.
    ...and stopped out of long as well. Confused by the whipsawing, I will stay on the sideline for the moment.
    #plantpot

  41. #3391
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKitega View Post
    Haha what makes you think I'll do the opposite? I also sell BTC from time to time. De-risked my crypto at 55k so starting to slowly buy back to full position.

    Sent from my EVR-L29 using Tapatalk
    Slowly starting to buy back, you say?

    #plantpot

  42. #3392
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    How does your standard stock run chart above correlate to Bitcoin's run?



  43. #3393
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    How does your standard stock run chart above correlate to Bitcoin's run?

    I think it correlates very well, unlike your over a year old chart of the somewhat funny stock-to-flow model.

    Looking at today's stock-to-flow, bitcoin should actually trade at $119,304, only a small deviation from its actual price of $37,000. At least the deviation is smaller than three weeks ago, when the model calculated a fair value of $210,000 versus and actual price of $38,500.

    It's all painted over by a log scale and a very broad graph line on the official website (maybe they could draw the graph with an inch-wide brush so that it is even less obvious?):

    #plantpot

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  45. #3395
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    For what it's worth, I've generally found that this model usually covers it one way or the other.



    "The color bands follow a logarithmic regression [...], but are otherwise completely arbitrary and without any scientific basis. In other words: It will only be correct until one day it isn’t anymore."
    https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

  46. #3396
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    No, it isn't. That's the 463d model, which is looking at the coins mined during the past 436 days rather than 10 days like the original stock-to-flow index.

    They have pivoted to publish the 463d model in order to make the gap appear smaller.

    It's all here: https://stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/stock-to-flow/
    #plantpot

  47. #3397
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    Both models are still in use

    I’ve used your source on this link

    https://twitter.com/buybtcww/status/...011013128?s=21

    I’ve always been referring to the 463d ma model when referring to STF

  48. #3398
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    El Salvador has passed President Nayib Bukele’s bill to make Bitcoin legal tender in the country! The bill passed 62–19, with three abstentions, at around 8pm local time on 8 June. The El Salvador Bitcoin plan is blitheringly obviously a scam, and the only question is the details of the scam. The prize here would be a small country’s stash of genuine US dollars. At least $150 million will be extracted via a trust that’s being set up as an interface between dollars and bitcoins.

    (...) I’m pretty sure both Bukele and the bitcoiners who sold him this scheme are each convinced they’re going to screw over the other. It’s possible both will lose, of course. Don’t expect the El Salvador Bitcoin plan to be a well-constructed long con put together coherently by smart people. This is a barely-planned smash-and-grab. The $150 million trust will be drained immediately. There will be near-zero consumer use of bitcoins. Tethers will circulate as dollars until people realise these things are not redeemable. Strike will somehow collapse.

    The international financial community will treat El Salvador as a money-laundering state. The IMF is likely to attach severe conditions to any further loans. The Bitcoin bros will lose their money and their bitcoins. The people of El Salvador will be even more screwed over. Bukele, who knows? He might wriggle out of this one — blaming the outsiders is the obvious move, for example. He’s definitely clever enough to have an escape plan already lined up.

    Just assume the El Salvador Bitcoin thing is absolutely as dumb as it looks, and you’ll make correct predictions.

    DavidGerard.co.uk
    #plantpot

  49. #3399
    As I understand it the law actually doesn’t take effect for 90 days. I expect that they will come under sufficient pressure (see sense?) to reverse this decision before the 90 days are up.

  50. #3400
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    I think there’s more fuss over it than is necessary.


    It’s not like they’re dumping USD and switching to BTC, like the EU did when they all switched to the Euro (which was also rather volatile)

    They’re just allowing BTC to be used as an alternative which has to be recognised as legal tender.

    Retailers that cannot reasonably accept it, don’t have to.


    There are many retailers, restaurants and supermarkets that accept Bitcoin in the UK.

    Sainsbury’s, M&S, Tesco, John Lewis, Argos, Asda……the list goes on.

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