Telcoin up almost 125% in a week. You can buy almost a million of these coins for about £500. One to watch for the future.
Same downside as every other asset: 100%.
With your argument, you might as well buy any penny stock, because that is the correct comparison. One in a million will make it to a real company, all the others will just eternally dilute existing shareholders with stock sales and new pumps and dumps.
The mania for these internet magic beans is strong ...
These are not investment grade assets IMO and have a high chance of going to zero at some stage ... very rapidly.
There are plenty of other assets that allow me to achieve my investment goals without having to risk my capital on unregulated assets.
Good luck to those who are riding this asset but it’s not for me.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
I’m not sure if any of you follow the stock-to-flow modelling on Bitcoin, but I like the daily updates on Twitter. It’s been pretty accurate in all the rises and falls of Bitcoin over the years.
Nay-sayers look away obviously :-D
Currently:
Actual price: $36,177.26
Model price: $29,467.22
So it’s over performing according to the predictions. The same chart predicts 100k by end 2021 and 1m by 2026. Will be interesting to see how it plays out
On what grounds is a Bitcoin worth $1m?
I have 10% of my SIPP in BTC derivatives. Oh hang on 12%. Wait, 8%. Now 9%. 7%. 10%.
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Answer 1 - not big enough
Answer 2 - 43
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I had a dabble in BTC via ARB (Argo Blovkchain) over last week or two.
Bought £30k’s worth. Watched it go up by over £7k in 12 hours. Then down, then up, then the weekend where BTC dived and I shat my pants and couldn’t sleep, then the (real) markets opened on Monday and my £30k was worth more, then less, then more........... then I finally sold it all with a £3k profit.
Not bad for a few days watching and reading it all I guess, but my wife said on a few occasions that she’d stab me with a blunt kitchen knife if I looked at the stock prices on my phone again.....
I think I’ll stick to simple, easy, passive funds and a nice cup of tea, in future.
"Stock to flow" model price update
Actual price: $36,069.94
Model price: $29,606.71
Heading back towards $30k, given that Janet Yellen has put a frightener on the Bitcoin market.
Unregulated Bitcoin may well go to the moon, but the Fed are strongly signalling that regulation is going to happen to contain the Wild West.
Seems to be quite a bit or regulatory activity against BTC at present ... I wonder how this will develop ... I can't see how they can shut down the blockchain but I guess they can regulate against exchanges but then they will just relocate to countries that don't regulate. I can't see them being able to stop it but I can see the exchanges being forced to unregulated countries. There will always be someone who's happy to host the interface to traditional currencies; probably the Swiss; or maybe the UK as we are going to be desperate post Brexit. London the global BTC capital... ??
"Regulation" in some form or other may be beneficial in making bitcoin more acceptable. Plenty of FUD being thrown to shake weak hands out.
1) Tether FUD (SEC investigation) and articles doing the rounds
2) Yellen's comments regarding crypto
3) Bitcoin double-spend scare article doing the rounds
4) bitcoin.org being copyright and legally challenged by Craig (CSW) claiming he is Satoshi Nakamoto
All of the above conveniently happening together on top of the quick run-up and normal bearish short term sentiment for a correction.
Stock-to-flow model price currently 30,056
The model uses historical values to model the future. It is displaying exactly what is has been programmed to display.
Until a few months ago, it predicted a 'terminal value' of $55k per bitcoin - until the model designer spent a weekend changing the algo and ever since the model predicts that BTC will reach $288k.
The model is absolute crap.
"The color bands follow a logarithmic regression [...], but are otherwise completely arbitrary and without any scientific basis. In other words: It will only be correct until one day it isn’t anymore."
Last edited by demonloop; 21st January 2021 at 22:34.