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  1. #2001
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    Telcoin up almost 125% in a week. You can buy almost a million of these coins for about £500. One to watch for the future.

  2. #2002
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    Quote Originally Posted by jwillans View Post
    Telcoin up almost 125% in a week. You can buy almost a million of these coins for about £500. One to watch for the future.
    The only argument you have is that they are cheap and have to go up? There are a couple of thousand other alt-coins for which the same applies.

    I have a secret to share with you: they will all go to zero.

  3. #2003
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    The only argument you have is that they are cheap and have to go up? There are a couple of thousand other alt-coins for which the same applies.

    I have a secret to share with you: they will all go to zero.
    Limited downside but infinite upside!

  4. #2004
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    Limited downside but infinite upside!
    Same downside as every other asset: 100%.

    With your argument, you might as well buy any penny stock, because that is the correct comparison. One in a million will make it to a real company, all the others will just eternally dilute existing shareholders with stock sales and new pumps and dumps.

  5. #2005
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    The mania for these internet magic beans is strong ...

    These are not investment grade assets IMO and have a high chance of going to zero at some stage ... very rapidly.

    There are plenty of other assets that allow me to achieve my investment goals without having to risk my capital on unregulated assets.

    Good luck to those who are riding this asset but it’s not for me.

  6. #2006
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    The mania for these internet magic beans is strong ...

    These are not investment grade assets IMO and have a high chance of going to zero at some stage ... very rapidly.

    There are plenty of other assets that allow me to achieve my investment goals without having to risk my capital on unregulated assets.

    Good luck to those who are riding this asset but it’s not for me.
    Ever heard of a stop loss?

  7. #2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by 200mwaterresistant View Post
    Ever heard of a stop loss?
    Pray tell me how a stop-loss works with alt-coins?

    You buy 500 quid each of a number of coins and then...?

  8. #2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    The mania for these internet magic beans is strong ...

    These are not investment grade assets IMO and have a high chance of going to zero at some stage ... very rapidly.

    There are plenty of other assets that allow me to achieve my investment goals without having to risk my capital on unregulated assets.

    Good luck to those who are riding this asset but it’s not for me.
    I like the magic beans analogy.

  9. #2009
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Pray tell me how a stop-loss works with alt-coins?

    You buy 500 quid each of a number of coins and then...?
    Sit back and browse which yacht and lambo you're going to get first.

  10. #2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by 200mwaterresistant View Post
    Sit back and browse which yacht and lambo you're going to get first.
    Ahh, shall give it a try then.

    Maybe one of the more experienced members can send me a list with the coins I need to buy.

  11. #2011
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Ahh, shall give it a try then.

    Maybe one of the more experienced members can send me a list with the coins I need to buy.
    Did it make you smile though, even a tiny bit?

  12. #2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by 200mwaterresistant View Post
    Did it make you smile though, even a tiny bit?
    It did.

  13. #2013
    Quote Originally Posted by 200mwaterresistant View Post
    Sit back and browse which yacht and lambo you're going to get first.
    Already picked out. When can I collect?
    It's just a matter of time...

  14. #2014
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    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  15. #2015
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    The only argument you have is that they are cheap and have to go up? There are a couple of thousand other alt-coins for which the same applies.

    I have a secret to share with you: they will all go to zero.
    I'm not making any argument, simply stated facts and certainly didn't suggest they were going to go up. Wind your neck in!

  16. #2016
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    Quote Originally Posted by jwillans View Post
    I'm not making any argument, simply stated facts and certainly didn't suggest they were going to go up. Wind your neck in!
    Wut?

  17. #2017
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post

    There are plenty of other assets that allow me to achieve my investment goals
    I’m the same with the majority of my investments. I’m in Bitcoin for the possibility getting a very high return, with an amount of capital I’m happy to lose.

    Like a lotto ticket, but with a much better (IMO) chance

  18. #2018
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    I’m not sure if any of you follow the stock-to-flow modelling on Bitcoin, but I like the daily updates on Twitter. It’s been pretty accurate in all the rises and falls of Bitcoin over the years.

    Nay-sayers look away obviously :-D

    Currently:
    Actual price: $36,177.26
    Model price: $29,467.22

    So it’s over performing according to the predictions. The same chart predicts 100k by end 2021 and 1m by 2026. Will be interesting to see how it plays out

  19. #2019
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    On what grounds is a Bitcoin worth $1m?

  20. #2020
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    On what grounds is a Bitcoin worth $1m?
    Because some people say it is and some other people are happy to believe them.

    I’m sure I’ll be able to retire one day on my 1.6% of a coin!

  21. #2021
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    On what grounds is a Bitcoin worth $1m?
    Coolness factor.

  22. #2022
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave+63 View Post
    Because some people say it is and some other people are happy to believe them.

    I’m sure I’ll be able to retire one day on my 1.6% of a coin!
    1.6% of your portfolio/pension pot?

  23. #2023
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    1.6% of your portfolio/pension pot?
    0.016 BTC.

  24. #2024
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    On what grounds is a Bitcoin worth $1m?
    What Dave said.

  25. #2025
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    What Dave said.
    Well good luck. I’m not willing to chance even 1% of my portfolio on it ...

  26. #2026
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    I have 10% of my SIPP in BTC derivatives. Oh hang on 12%. Wait, 8%. Now 9%. 7%. 10%.



    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

  27. #2027
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I have 10% of my SIPP in BTC derivatives. Oh hang on 12%. Wait, 8%. Now 9%. 7%. 10%.



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    Well I’d don’t know how big your Sipp is or how old you are so impossible to judge how risky that decision may be ...

  28. #2028
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    Answer 1 - not big enough

    Answer 2 - 43



    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

  29. #2029
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Answer 1 - not big enough

    Answer 2 - 43



    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
    If I were younger maybe I’d take a punt but as I have little income now I wish to take less risk with my capital.

  30. #2030
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Answer 1 - not big enough

    Answer 2 - 43



    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
    Same, on both counts

  31. #2031
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    Same, on both counts
    No ones SIPP is ever big enough but be wary of chasing big returns ... capital is easy to lose but takes time to earn.

  32. #2032
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    I had a dabble in BTC via ARB (Argo Blovkchain) over last week or two.


    Bought £30k’s worth. Watched it go up by over £7k in 12 hours. Then down, then up, then the weekend where BTC dived and I shat my pants and couldn’t sleep, then the (real) markets opened on Monday and my £30k was worth more, then less, then more........... then I finally sold it all with a £3k profit.

    Not bad for a few days watching and reading it all I guess, but my wife said on a few occasions that she’d stab me with a blunt kitchen knife if I looked at the stock prices on my phone again.....

    I think I’ll stick to simple, easy, passive funds and a nice cup of tea, in future.

  33. #2033
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    0.016 BTC.
    0.01619825 to be precise.

    I’m expecting to be a millionaire by Christmas

  34. #2034
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    A very good read and if he is indeed right someone is going to lose or already has lost their shirt !
    Cheers

    Simon



    Ralph Waldo Emerson: We ask for long life, but 'tis deep life, or noble moments that signify. Let the measure of time be spiritual, not mechanical.

  35. #2035
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    "Stock to flow" model price update

    Actual price: $36,069.94
    Model price: $29,606.71

  36. #2036
    Heading back towards $30k, given that Janet Yellen has put a frightener on the Bitcoin market.

    Unregulated Bitcoin may well go to the moon, but the Fed are strongly signalling that regulation is going to happen to contain the Wild West.

  37. #2037
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Heading back towards $30k, given that Janet Yellen has put a frightener on the Bitcoin market.

    Unregulated Bitcoin may well go to the moon, but the Fed are strongly signalling that regulation is going to happen to contain the Wild West.
    Will be interesting if the Fed are able to do this though.

  38. #2038
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Will be interesting if the Fed are able to do this though.
    I think Congress will need to pass a law if it is to ever happen. The Fed will implement it.

    Yellen is publically talking about curtailing Bitcoin given its widespread use in illegal activities.

    Hence the relative free-fall over the last 24 hours.

  39. #2039
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    I think Congress will need to pass a law if it is to ever happen. The Fed will implement it.

    Yellen is publicly talking about curtailing Bitcoin given its widespread use in illegal activities.

    Hence the relative free-fall over the last 24 hours.
    Seems to be quite a bit or regulatory activity against BTC at present ... I wonder how this will develop ... I can't see how they can shut down the blockchain but I guess they can regulate against exchanges but then they will just relocate to countries that don't regulate. I can't see them being able to stop it but I can see the exchanges being forced to unregulated countries. There will always be someone who's happy to host the interface to traditional currencies; probably the Swiss; or maybe the UK as we are going to be desperate post Brexit. London the global BTC capital... ??

  40. #2040
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    "Regulation" in some form or other may be beneficial in making bitcoin more acceptable. Plenty of FUD being thrown to shake weak hands out.

    1) Tether FUD (SEC investigation) and articles doing the rounds
    2) Yellen's comments regarding crypto
    3) Bitcoin double-spend scare article doing the rounds
    4) bitcoin.org being copyright and legally challenged by Craig (CSW) claiming he is Satoshi Nakamoto

    All of the above conveniently happening together on top of the quick run-up and normal bearish short term sentiment for a correction.

  41. #2041
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    Stock-to-flow model price currently 30,056

  42. #2042
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    Stock-to-flow model price currently 30,056
    It's just reactive, showing the short term trend. Laughable.

  43. #2043
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    It's just reactive, showing the short term trend. Laughable.
    It runs from 2010 to 2026, how’s that reactive or short term?

  44. #2044
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    It runs from 2010 to 2026, how’s that reactive or short term?
    It draws a line between now and a made-up target and will move the resulting line towards the current price. In the last days it has consistently ticked higher when the cash price was above. If it is a valuation model, how can the valuation change every day?

  45. #2045
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    It draws a line between now and a made-up target and will move the resulting line towards the current price. In the last days it has consistently ticked higher when the cash price was above. If it is a valuation model, how can the valuation change every day?
    It’s a predictive model, to show *future price* and it does not alter course. It’s overlayed by the current price to show the correlation. You’ll note that when bitcoin has dropped, the model has not. Pretty surprised having to explain this to you Raffe.

  46. #2046
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    It’s a predictive model, to show *future price* and it does not alter course. It’s overlayed by the current price to show the correlation. You’ll note that when bitcoin has dropped, the model has not. Pretty surprised having to explain this to you Raffe.
    The model uses historical values to model the future. It is displaying exactly what is has been programmed to display.

    Until a few months ago, it predicted a 'terminal value' of $55k per bitcoin - until the model designer spent a weekend changing the algo and ever since the model predicts that BTC will reach $288k.

    The model is absolute crap.

  47. #2047
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    "The color bands follow a logarithmic regression [...], but are otherwise completely arbitrary and without any scientific basis. In other words: It will only be correct until one day it isn’t anymore."

  48. #2048
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    Last edited by demonloop; 21st January 2021 at 22:34.

  49. #2049
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    The model uses historical values to model the future. It is displaying exactly what is has been programmed to display.

    Until a few months ago, it predicted a 'terminal value' of $55k per bitcoin - until the model designer spent a weekend changing the algo and ever since the model predicts that BTC will reach $288k.

    The model is absolute crap.
    Incorrect. See my screenshots from today and June (I got too bored to scroll back further) The price prediction is unchanged

    And you’ve got your 288k figure from a different model too, btw

    Edit: not saying it will definitely happen, but it’s been pretty accurate so far

  50. #2050
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    Incorrect. See my screenshots from today and June (I got too bored to scroll back further) The price prediction is unchanged

    And you’ve got your 288k figure from a different model too, btw

    Edit: not saying it will definitely happen, but it’s been pretty accurate so far
    Any model predicting the future from the past is crap. Believe me, I have worked quite a bit with quant finance.

    And the change of model occurred in April.

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