Anyone trading the US Election on the exchanges?

[ryanb741]

Disclaimer - the following is personal opinion and may be complete b@llocks so I suggest only those who know what they are doing should get involved and I take no responsibility for any losses that are incurred.

I know we have a few Betfair/Smarkets aficionados here. If you don't fit into thus category the below will mean very little to you.

I laid Hillary Clinton at 1.22 for £5000 which cost me just over a grand but I would trade out for a smallish loss if she got to 1.17 or so. The first results due are staunch republican areas which should see Trump come in a bit and Clinton drift out so I will take some profit then.

Don't forget the 'Brexit' factor - ie people voting against the Establishment which represents a 4% swing to Trump so in those key states such as Florida that may be enough to swing it to Trump.

Whilst the markets price the chances of Trump winning as 20% the real chance is around 45% so whilst I wouldn't suggest taking a punt with money you can't afford to lose, if you know how to trade betting exchanges I expect Clinton to drift out significantly giving good trading opportunities. I expect a lot of volatility in the exchanges. I'm aiming for around a Speedy Pro's worth of profit tonight :)

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[Jdh1]

Interesting. Not sure what time the first results are in.

I was trading the Brexit vote and saw an interesting pattern on Betfair. I had bet on remain and intended trading out of it as it was showing a good profit. Everyone on TV was still predicting a remain vote when the odds on leave tumbled rapidly online wiping out my profit and then some. TV was still giving no indication of an upset, and it was a good 15 minutes before news of unexpected leave successes started to filter through. I concluded that some people with a heavy financial interest had people inside key counts and must have made a fortune. Something to watch out for.

[demonloop]

A professional trader once told me if you don't have a bot constantly trading on incremental market movements, you're a punter, not a trader. And as the previous poster suggested, if someone else has the inside scoop, or a better /faster access to information than you, you're beat before you start.

That's not to say you can't get lucky, but it will be luck.

[ryanb741]

A professional trader once told me if you don't have a bot constantly trading on incremental market movements, you're a punter, not a trader. And as the previous poster suggested, if someone else has the inside scoop, or a better /faster access to information than you, you're beat before you start.

That's not to say you can't get lucky, but it will be luck.

Not necessarily. It's about finding value in the market. If the odds available on the flip of a coin were 3/1 you would take that bet every time as it represents a higher long term payout vs the odds of it happening. Same applies here as no way is Clinton 80% likely to win so firstly I take that position expect to change my position as the market moves. Will update tomorrow on how I got on


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[demonloop]

If you were in this market I'd have thought you'd be in for months by this stage, making trades every time one of the 'horses' stumbled at a fence, counter trading when they recovered. There'll be a lot of people already rolling in profit by this stage.

It'll definitely be a volatile market, but the challenge you face is that the pros will have already made their move by the time you get news via Fox/Sky etc. The big hitters will have people on the ground. For you to make a profitable change in position, you're depending on someone else being slower at picking up news than you. That may well happen, but you'll still be feeding on the scraps left by the pros.

I'm sure you're only with money you can afford to lose though, and it does add a bit of interest to the nights viewing I must admit.

[johnnyhayward]

Hope it goes well, whenever I have tired to speculate on the currency I always get it wrong.

[kevkojak]

I'm aiming for around a Speedy Pro's worth of profit tonight :)

I like the way you work! If my bank manager had explained interest rates to me like that I might not have drawn them all out and waxed it on rubbish.

"This month you earned a Seiko Sumo Kev, but by year-end we expect to be well on our way to a Breitling Super-Avenger..."

[luckyhands]

But I've put a few Gs in USA trackers this week. Might see a little jump after the election, but safe as houses.

[Kingstepper]

I laid Hillary Clinton at 1.22 for £5000 which cost me just over a grand but I would trade out for a smallish loss if she got to 1.17 or so. The first results due are staunch republican areas which should see Trump come in a bit and Clinton drift out so I will take some profit then.

1.15 now, are you out?

[seffrican]

I laid Hillary Clinton

Pics or it never happened!

[ryanb741]

1.15 now, are you out?

Nope will wait for first results in 7 mins.

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[Kingstepper]

Nope will wait for first results in 7 mins.

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Back to 1.19, good luck!

[ryanb741]

Backed Hilary when she went up to 1.25 and laid her off around 1.12 for a £56 profit for the night. She will win the election as she's winning Florida and North Carolina. Didn't get enough for the Speedy lol
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[Chris_in_the_UK]

Backed Hilary when she went up to 1.25 and laid her off around 1.12 for a £56 profit for the night. She will win the election as she's winning Florida and North Carolina. Didn't get enough for the Speedy lol
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You shallow, shape shifting, post changing chancer.

[Raffe]

People are betting on Mike Pence, his odds are moving fast.

[Dazzler]

She will win the election as she's winning Florida and North Carolina. Didn't get enough for the Speedy lol
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Oops, we could have seen a nice speedie in the Friday thread...

[~dadam02~]

I don't bet exchanges so not hugely familiar, but say you had held your position til the end whay would you have likely won on that £5k?

[soundood]

Trunp Wins Speedy Over

[Tomw2000]

Interesting - Ryan what would been your return had you held your nerve and let the lay bet pay out?

[Gordon76]

Interesting - Ryan what would been your return had you held your nerve and let the lay bet pay out?

Suspect it could've been a Patek rather than a speedy!


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[Kingstepper]

He would have won the lay amount (£5000).

[ac82]

You shallow, shape shifting, post changing chancer.

Noticed this too! I'm sure this post said something about trump going to win Florida and then was changed on the very early swing....

[ryanb741]

Guys. I got back into the market when she dropped to 1.1 and laid her for £7500 which cost me £750 risk. Figured worst she would go down to was 1.08 whilst a load of the votes were still to come so it was relatively risk free. Traded out at evens.

You guys do the maths. I will show the reveal when I pick up the watch!


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[Coot]

Result!

I bottled it and cashed out £50 up - maybe a new strap for Friday.

[ryanb741]

And here's a pic of what the winnings paid for - Omega Aqua Terra Sceptre edition.

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