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Thread: Is the bubble about to burst?

  1. #1
    Master
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    Is the bubble about to burst?

    Okay apologies another Rolex thread about prices.

    Just wondering if pre owned watch companies have created a bubble by inflating prices so much. I'm now seeing BLNR's over 7k, hulks 7k, new Daytona's just under 15k (I know someone who got 13k for theirs selling to one of these companies) old Daytona's for 10k and even non date subs at 5,250!!! 5,250 for a non date sub - the watch you could just about always buy at most AD's without any hassle.

    Initially it seemed there were maybe 1 or 2 companies raising prices, but there's loads doing it now. Everyone seems to talk about AD's having little or no SS stock and with the ever present discussion about price rises being imminent (sept 1st now ) has his all created an environment which will burst very soon?

    A pre owned dealer I know fairly well has been saying for months he's struggling to buy stock at a reasonable price and there's hardly anything out there. He said quite casually that Rolex is a business and a clever business at that and it wouldn't surprise him if when they increase the prices they also release quite a lot of new stock. Good business for them, but potentially a bursting bubble in the pre owned market.

    Food for thought.

  2. #2
    Grand Master JasonM's Avatar
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    The market decides, as long as there are people buying them at these prices they will keep selling them, the vast majority of buyers are not 'us' and wouldn't know or care about historical prices.
    Cheers..
    Jase

  3. #3
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    Pre-owned Hulks for 7K?

    Old SS Daytonas for 10K?

    Wow where is this? Blowers still seem to still be around 8K for a used Daytona last time I looked

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonM View Post
    The market decides, as long as there are people buying them at these prices they will keep selling them, the vast majority of buyers are not 'us' and wouldn't know or care about historical prices.
    Unless the market is a cartel.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by kultschar View Post
    Pre-owned Hulks for 7K?

    Old SS Daytonas for 10K?

    Wow where is this? Blowers still seem to still be around 8K for a used Daytona last time I looked
    You need to look around then because thats what they are going for.

  6. #6
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    Not disputing mate just shocked.

    Though I noticed on another forum yesterday that difficult to source a Sub from a AD in UK or Paris

  7. #7
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
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    Have a read of the book; "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds" by Charles Mackay, lots of insight there.

  8. #8
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    http://www.theguardian.com/business/...e_iOSApp_Other

    I guess with all the "cheap" UK stock gobbled up by tourists Preowned dealer are milking things
    Last edited by kultschar; 23rd August 2016 at 20:52.

  9. #9
    Grand Master Wallasey Runner's Avatar
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    As others have said, whilst the demand is there dealers will continue to demand a premium on desirable models. We also live in a world were everyone wants everything now and people are willing to pay extra to jump a queue or get hold of a watch that is sold out.

  10. #10
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    I certainly won`t shed a tear if the current bubble bursts. A limited number of rich boys trying to buy new toys, and a supply/demand situation that's being controlled very carefully by the puppetmaster (aka Rolex).

    They're only bloody watches.....people need to remember this. Anyone muppet who's daft enough to pay over list price for any watch deserves to get serious burnt fingers.

    Paul

  11. #11
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    Spoke to a mate in the trade last week (not AD for Rolex, but for other brands) and they are desperate for stock. Quoted me 8k+ for a SS Daytona a that I rarely wear now, they were talking 6k a year or so ago. Might have to clear out the SS Rolex box with a divorce to pay for!

  12. #12
    Craftsman Scott's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by walkerwek1958 View Post
    I certainly won`t shed a tear if the current bubble bursts. A limited number of rich boys trying to buy new toys, and a supply/demand situation that's being controlled very carefully by the puppetmaster (aka Rolex).

    They're only bloody watches.....people need to remember this. Anyone muppet who's daft enough to pay over list price for any watch deserves to get serious burnt fingers.

    Paul
    This. Although I do resent that I can't get a BLNR for a reasonable price. The safest bet seems to go for something a little more timeless rather than a 'gimmick' such as the BLNR and the Hulk.

  13. #13
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    Impact of € to £ exchange rate.

  14. #14
    Master paneristi372's Avatar
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    Maybe thats why dealers have been offering me upto £6000 for my enjoyed 6 year old DSSD?!?!

  15. #15
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    Wonder how much I would get for my 1.5 year old pretty scratched up BLNR. Never going to sell it but should I be made redundant etc it's always a consideration for quick cash


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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    Quote Originally Posted by paneristi372 View Post
    Maybe thats why dealers have been offering me upto £6000 for my enjoyed 6 year old DSSD?!?!
    Thats is a great price! Wish I was over to unload a few :)

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scott View Post
    This. Although I do resent that I can't get a BLNR for a reasonable price. The safest bet seems to go for something a little more timeless rather than a 'gimmick' such as the BLNR and the Hulk.
    You don`t need one....if they hadn`t dangled the carrot you wouldn`t be snapping . It's all a game, you decide whether you need to play or not.

    Paul

  18. #18
    Master beechcustom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by walkerwek1958 View Post
    You don`t need one....if they hadn`t dangled the carrot you wouldn`t be snapping . It's all a game, you decide whether you need to play or not.

    Paul
    I have to agree. I'm content with my unfashionably sensibly sized 114270.

  19. #19
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    Its a watch if you like it you buy it, cost is one of those things but should not move you form buying a piece you like. I buy pieces as and when I see fit but they all have a meaning to me. My daughters are taking me watch shopping for my birthday as they know Daddy likes to spend time in watch shops buying watches. So now I have a cough cough good enough reason to go spend. Would I pay more yes because you cant die with your money and why waste a few years waiting when you could have bought it and enjoy did in that time. I did that with my gold daytonas I got them almost as cheap as what SS daytonas are selling for now and I enjoyed them. No point living in regret and what if's if you can afford it do it and ignore other people. It's your hobby and its what make you tick.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by andybaird22 View Post
    Wonder how much I would get for my 1.5 year old pretty scratched up BLNR. Never going to sell it but should I be made redundant etc it's always a consideration for quick cash


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    Private sale £5500 I would guess. Dealer might give you £5000

  21. #21
    I have just been quoted a 3 to 4 year waiting list for a new BLNR at an AD.

    Yeah right.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPCain86 View Post
    Private sale £5500 I would guess. Dealer might give you £5000
    Not that I'm looking to sell but interesting to know . I'm one of these weirdos who obsesses over the market for things I have no intention of selling

    Although after my trip to Amsterdam where I got the deep sea blue for something like £2k under list price and sold it I am now kind of wishing I held on to it a bit longer


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  23. #23
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    Where are all these great offers coming from, I have a freshly serviced 2010 116710LN With a 2 year guarantee from Rolex UK and dealers are only offering me £3600 to £3800.

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainSlow View Post
    Where are all these great offers coming from, I have a freshly serviced 2010 116710LN With a 2 year guarantee from Rolex UK and dealers are only offering me £3600 to £3800.
    I never used to understand why the standard GMT is so much less popular in comparison to Subs etc, but the BLNR is SO popular. I guess it's just supply and demand; you can generally find a GMTC LN in most store windows, but other watches tend to sell quicker and re-stock slower.

    The other day, I picked up a new Rolex and the store told me they had 5 steel sports in that morning, and every one was sold or had a deposit by lunch time. They simply called the people on their lists and they were gone.

  25. #25
    Grand Master Andyg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    Okay apologies another Rolex thread about prices.

    Just wondering if pre owned watch companies have created a bubble by inflating prices so much. I'm now seeing BLNR's over 7k, hulks 7k, new Daytona's just under 15k (I know someone who got 13k for theirs selling to one of these companies) old Daytona's for 10k and even non date subs at 5,250!!! 5,250 for a non date sub - the watch you could just about always buy at most AD's without any hassle.

    Initially it seemed there were maybe 1 or 2 companies raising prices, but there's loads doing it now. Everyone seems to talk about AD's having little or no SS stock and with the ever present discussion about price rises being imminent (sept 1st now ) has his all created an environment which will burst very soon?

    A pre owned dealer I know fairly well has been saying for months he's struggling to buy stock at a reasonable price and there's hardly anything out there. He said quite casually that Rolex is a business and a clever business at that and it wouldn't surprise him if when they increase the prices they also release quite a lot of new stock. Good business for them, but potentially a bursting bubble in the pre owned market.

    Food for thought.
    mike woods has 2 SS Daytona for sale at under £7k.

    Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
    Friedrich Nietzsche


  26. #26
    Master Neilw3030's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottbombedout View Post
    I have just been quoted a 3 to 4 year waiting list for a new BLNR at an AD.

    Yeah right.
    There was one in Michael Spiers Exeter on Saturday

  27. #27
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    A big reason for the "Shortage" of certain models is the popularity and higher prices in china and SE Asia. Everyday there are 1000's of aircrew flying in from asia on 24hr layovers. Where do they go? To the Rolex, Louis Vuitton, Mulberry etc shops, where they get A. Discount B. Currency discount C. VAT refund....

    Locals dont stand a chance against this, and dealers love it. Zero effort, tons of sales, looks good at the meetings in Basel...

    Unless markets harmonise, this will just go on...

  28. #28
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    There was an article about just that in the guardian yesterday. Someone posted it up.

  29. #29
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    Nothing goes on forever, markets change, fashions change, technology changes, above all, what people see as 'desirable' can change.
    The assumption that a market is 'safe' is made by every industry that eventually wilts. Complacency abounds. We love watches, but we don't count in sales terms. The future has not happened, it won't be a repeat of the past, it never is.
    Above all, failures in capitalist markets look a fairly safe bet. The world is unstable st the moment.
    Last edited by paskinner; 24th August 2016 at 08:16.

  30. #30
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    I am not so sure about the history has a habit of repeating it self at times, pessimist and doom and gloom woes are always around. However all you need to do is have a positive out look and a bit of hope.

  31. #31
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    I don't see any bubble at all.......the weak GBP however has definately contributed to the lack of inventory in the UK, the price differential as has been discussed millions of times on this forum is just too large for anyone to contemplate buying else where. Remember not only are the retail prices low in the UK, as a tourist you then get 16.67% back!!! A GMT BLNR costs £4980.00 tax free brand new from an AD....That is a huge huge differential compared to other countries!!

  32. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neilw3030 View Post
    There was one in Michael Spiers Exeter on Saturday
    Interestingly I called them this morning, they do not have one. Nor would they add me to thier list as they said that Rolex are big on selling to local people at the moment.

  33. #33
    Master Neilw3030's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Middo View Post
    Interestingly I called them this morning, they do not have one. Nor would they add me to thier list as they said that Rolex are big on selling to local people at the moment.
    how interesting is that statement, on MS facebook page they just sold a daytona to Sir Alan Sugar, it was at their Plymouth branch, but hardly a "local chap"
    as to the BLNR they must have sold it as i saw it

  34. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Middo View Post
    Interestingly I called them this morning, they do not have one. Nor would they add me to thier list as they said that Rolex are big on selling to local people at the moment.
    Locals eh, tell them to pull the other one!

  35. #35
    Master Tony's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainSlow View Post
    Where are all these great offers coming from, I have a freshly serviced 2010 116710LN With a 2 year guarantee from Rolex UK and dealers are only offering me £3600 to £3800.
    I would have thought you could do better than that. Blowers gave me more than you've been offered for the same watch earlier this year with a year left on its Rolex service guarantee.

  36. #36
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    A Rolex AD, yesterday -


  37. #37
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    I wonder how that would work in LHR? Ha Ha.
    Last edited by Middo; 24th August 2016 at 13:15.

  38. #38
    I've had a look at blowers, watchfinder and chrono 24. Cheapest used steel Daytona is £7950. Wow. Watchfinder offered me £6k last year for my black dial "m"serial, then last month they offered me £6750 it's seems crazy. If they are selling over £8k id bet they'd offer me £7k if I asked them now. They don't seem to have too much stock in the above shops so they must be selling...wish I'd bought more when I had the chance....

  39. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yeti View Post
    I've had a look at blowers, watchfinder and chrono 24. Cheapest used steel Daytona is £7950. Wow. Watchfinder offered me £6k last year for my black dial "m"serial, then last month they offered me £6750 it's seems crazy. If they are selling over £8k id bet they'd offer me £7k if I asked them now. They don't seem to have too much stock in the above shops so they must be selling...wish I'd bought more when I had the chance....
    Daytonas have really exploded, people predicted the older daytona to depreciate but on the contrary. We all know what happens to Rolex SS when they get discontinued....

  40. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaiserphoenix View Post
    Remember not only are the retail prices low in the UK, as a tourist you then get 16.67% back!!! A GMT BLNR costs £4980.00 tax free brand new from an AD....That is a huge huge differential compared to other countries!!
    Just to add a little perspective - that's $6600. Forum sellers are asking around $8,000 (£6,000) for a used BLNR over here. UK prices were a good deal (ex. VAT) before the currency change. Now... it's a pricing bonanza.

  41. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by andybaird22 View Post
    Wonder how much I would get for my 1.5 year old pretty scratched up BLNR.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I was offered 5.1K for mine last week and it's the same age as yours. When he then said he'd sell an unworn one now for over 7K I laughed him off.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by andybaird22 View Post
    Wonder how much I would get for my 1.5 year old pretty scratched up BLNR.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Last edited by rgwarden; 24th August 2016 at 15:03. Reason: Double posted

  42. #42
    Grand Master Neil.C's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by paskinner View Post
    Nothing goes on forever, markets change, fashions change, technology changes, above all, what people see as 'desirable' can change.
    The assumption that a market is 'safe' is made by every industry that eventually wilts. Complacency abounds. We love watches, but we don't count in sales terms. The future has not happened, it won't be a repeat of the past, it never is.
    Above all, failures in capitalist markets look a fairly safe bet. The world is unstable st the moment.
    People have been saying that since I have been collecting watches - and that is thirty odd years!

    We've seen all manner of financial disasters etc in that time and have Rolexes either new or second hand gone down in that time - no.
    Cheers,
    Neil.

  43. #43
    Master beechcustom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaiserphoenix View Post
    We all know what happens to Rolex SS when they get discontinued....
    Can I expect to retire on my 114270 then? :-)

  44. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by beechcustom View Post
    Can I expect to retire on my 114270 then? :-)
    I dun think u can retire on any modern mass produced watch......but u can try ;)


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  45. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by beechcustom View Post
    Can I expect to retire on my 114270 then? :-)
    If tastes change back to smaller watches, I think that reference will increase a lot. It's a really great watch. Even so, go price some NOS version. They're right around $6,500. Only a couple thousand less than the vastly more popular 14060M.

  46. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neil.C View Post
    People have been saying that since I have been collecting watches - and that is thirty odd years!

    We've seen all manner of financial disasters etc in that time and have Rolexes either new or second hand gone down in that time - no.
    All true. But, as always, the assumption is that the future will copy the past. The UK has been a member of the EU for far more than 30 years. So, according to your logic, it will remain a member.
    Got it.

  47. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neilw3030 View Post
    how interesting is that statement, on MS facebook page they just sold a daytona to Sir Alan Sugar, it was at their Plymouth branch, but hardly a "local chap"
    as to the BLNR they must have sold it as i saw it
    He buys off them regularly so maybe that's why. He bought a 116618 gold submariner with blue dial a few months back off them, plus I've a feeling he has a home down that way too, but I agree not a local.

  48. #48
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    If international cabin crew can rock up to AD's and buy SS sport models on the spot (especially limited / smoke & mirrors limited models like the BLNR, Deepsea DBlue, SS Daytona or Hulk) they must be as lucky as little tax free leprechauns. Or there are some under the counter deals going on? I've only ever had the eye rolling spiel about months or years on waiting lists. Maybe I should get my nails done & wear a BA or Emirates uniform next time.

  49. #49
    There are about 5 pre owned ss old Daytona's in various shops in Glasgow, all within 100m of each other and all priced at £7950...

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  50. #50
    Master
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neil.C View Post
    We've seen all manner of financial disasters etc in that time and have Rolexes either new or second hand gone down in that time - no.
    Actually yes. There were tons of deals to be had when the American economy crashed. Double so while the GBP was super strong against the USD.

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