It occurred to me the other day that with ceramic bezel inserts and Super Luminova dials, both of which apparently won't discolour, what will the vintage market look like in 30 years time? Add in to the mix ceramic cases, will we be left with brand new looking watches? No faded inserts, no creamy lume plots?
Will this make older watches even more desirable to the vintage collectors?
Any thoughts?
As long as models change vintage will stay popular, only they will not look as aged from the lume and patina. I have a few old watches that look really great and sometimes worry what they look like in another 30 years time. Sure the lume is nice now but what after another 30 years?
Until a few weeks ago, I had the SubC and a 70's 5513.
Id say the SubC is perfect for me. Comfortable, great lume (yes, I wear overnight), 100% water resistant for any task I may do and of course! good looking.
But the 5513 is just soooooooo nice.
Anyway, I was on a one watch quest and the SubC lost, but will be my one and only watch sometime soon.
Dave, I think you're right if you're suggesting that the newer materials won't age in the same way, and that vintage watches of the future will be a somewhat different kettle of fish. It's a shame IMO, but there's another factor that I believe will have even more of an effect on the vintage market; my children's generation and those that follow will almost certainly have less and less interest in vintage (watches and everything else) as a consequence of the culture of disposable consumerism in which they're grown up, and the market will slowly but surely die as our generation gets smaller in number.
I don't see that as a good thing or a bad thing - it's just inevitable.
Ceramic inserts and cases will crack or shatter eventually, its just a matter of time, so we will see a lot of watches without inserts and missing lugs. Sapphire crystals can and will scratch and are practically impossible to polish out.
Carbon fibre watches are basically just a fancy fibreglass, so will fade and suffer from UV light damage and will eventually end up looking like those knackered old canoes you see abandoned in the corners of boat yards. There were some fibreglass case watches made in the 70's, see how tired they look today.
Bronze and brass case watches will tarnish and rust and stain so much that soon enough they are no longer water tight, so dials and movements will be ruined. There is a good reason why most watches are made from stainless steel.
So basically, we will see a lot of tired old watches that are unable to be repaired because it would simply cost too much to get the correct genuine parts, even if they were still available.
Seeing as my kids & no doubt others think we live in a disposable world there will be less vintage about. Not interested in fixing anything in our throwaway world they just bin everything and go and buy another so there won't be any vintage watches left.
In a 'disposable culture' (something that's been heralded for the last fifty years and the start of the long boom, and no doubt long before that) there will always be a market for quality things that last. There is massive interest worldwide in quality mechanical watches and a watch collectors' scene will be sustained by that for a long time to come.
Agree with this.Originally Posted by Tony
Those who say otherwise are mixing with the wrong people ;-)
Seriously, I know youngsters who are very much in to vintage items, so I don't fear for the end of vintage items. Look at the recent news stories around vinyl and the massive comeback it has made, including massive popularity with the younger generations.
Cheers
Foggy
There's a good argument to say buy good quality, desirable pieces from the 60s and 70s now and sit tight - your kids will thank you for it in future. :-)
Kudos to the OP for the title of the thread too. It's a bit like saying "nostalgia isn't what it used to be". :-))
SGR
There always has been a 'vintage' subculture which is periodically picked over by fashion brands to inspire the latest fashions, and I don't think this human trait is likely to change.
We may laugh at hipster culture, but they do have a respect for some vintage items.
Another potential game changer is if Chinese culture moves away from its dislike of old items (beyond ceramics, that is) and towards more appreciation of age and originality: with the size of that market it could change the vintage watch scene very considerably.
My opinion is that they provide an antidote to throw away culture and will endure. They represent craftsmanship and history and also say something about the person wearing them in terms of style and personality. Also the rise of knowledge on the internet means the information is at anyone's fingertips - to research and get enthusiastic!
It's also impossible to know what will be valued by the vintage watch collector in fifty years' time.
You'd have been a laughing stock if you'd have suggested fifty years ago that lume plots that no longer functioned and had gone the colour of custard would be prized in 2014.
That's true in detail, but you'd have been on the money if you'd tipped Rolexes in general, especially limited-run models, and these are still as safe a bet as anything else today. As are small-volume craftsman made pieces, just so long as you can get service parts in 50 years...
Everything will eventually change so the current throw-away culture will properly give way to something else in the future.
It might be that local produced goods will become the norm, even if it comes at a higher price. There's certainly some evidence in my neighborhood that people would rather do with fewer things at a higher quality. I don't hope it's a fad.
I don't see any vintage quality items, including watches, becoming less desirable in the future. Predicting witch watch will become a good investment is however impossible :-)
I think that mechanical (and some quartz) watches represent an antidote to the electronic hype-cycle and will be appreciated by a section of the society who maintain an interest in simple mono-modal mechanisms with some form of historical association. Some people will continue to buy them because they represent some sort of contact with the past, either actual or atavistic.
Others will appreciate them as an antidote to the impermanence of electronic goods and will enjoy not having to upgrade their watch or renew a user licence to wear the watch or not have to sit through 3 minutes of advertising every time they use their watch.
Others will be pleased that their watch is not broadcasting their whereabouts or activities whenever they use them.
Others will enjoy them for what they are, appreciate their design and materials maybe even wear them as a form of jewellery or a symbol of cultural or tribal association.
There are others who feel that like vintage cars or art works, watches represent a form of fixed method of exchange, a sort of investment hedge against the vagaries of the value of currency.
I'd say that analogue watches will be around for a fair time yet. We have had electronic digital watches since the 70s. Along the way there have been various forms of wrist mounted computers, calculators and TVs. But it is interesting to note that there has been a move away from these and a return to the analogue watch face. I think there are several psychological and ergonomic reasons for this, which I don't see changing any time soon.
So I think that there will continue to be a desire for watches both new (the next generations vintage watch) and vintage. I think the market for watch collection has increased over the past five years or so that I've been involved. A good example of this is the growth in size and prominence of blogs and websites such as W&W and Hodinkee and the increase in the number of boutique brands, especially those that recreate watches that aren't produced by their original manufacturer today.
I think some of the more outlandish materials and designs which command a premium in the windows of dealers today, will no doubt fade or fail as a number of past technologies and designs have. This may in a perverse way make them more not less desirable as those that survive in the best condition will command a premium due to their rarity and will become the new 'tropic' dials of the future era. In fact, the more I think about it, now is probably the right time to start spotting the next generation's milsub or Daytona.
Just as there remains a vibrant antiques market which sells and resells outdated items like duelling pistols, tea caddies, Treen bric-a-brac and the multitude of other items for which there is either no modern use or a contemporary replacement, there will always be a market for the items of the past and I am convinced that watches will be one of these.
I don't go along with the disposable argument and perceptions of modern youth it's too broad an argument. There will always be niches and nerds ready to collect anything. The vinyl revival is one, many collect 60's and 70's furniture and there is a hipster culture of recycling and reusing. People will always be drawn in by fashion and what is deemed desirable or must have.
Watches today are more about fashion and status so I would imagine that people will buy into that idea in the future, wanting something that they may not have been able to afford when they were younger. It may be that because the look doesn't change as in the past with faded and battered watches that the items will remain more desirable.
There will always be a counter culture who will buck new technology and want something from the past to show they are different. As with all antiques quality will always win.
Last edited by Martin123; 10th May 2014 at 10:06. Reason: Added
Watches aren't essential items now (how many people use their mobile phone to tell the time?), yet they remain collectable.
My view on new watches in 30 years time are that they will date in other ways. Ceramic may well haze or be subject to cracks/marks for example. As has been said above, Carbon Fibre will no doubt fade. So long as the watch style and design differs, there will always be a market taking aside these points though IMHO.
There is something with ageing of a watch and change in colouration, which gives the vintage look. If it appears the same in 30 years. I might as well buy a new one then.
I think its often the subtle changes that make the vintage look not just its aging, I would say that to my tastes a NOS vintage Sub still has something that a modern beefy Sub-c is lacking although I agree from a purely engineering point of view its a different beast altogether.
I think it will evolve in the same way that any modern item may eventually may become collectable, small runs, unusual colors and Limited editions will be what the collector treasures. You never know maybe one day one of the modern L.E. Speedmasters may surpass its RRP. ;)
My favourite and most cherished watch.....1958 Omega Seamaster Calendar.
IMG_0540-RS by Dave in Wales, on Flickr
IMG_1513-RS by Dave in Wales, on Flickr
It's an interesting thought, but while watches are still made of ridiculously scratchable stainless steel, they will still age - perhaps not as consistently and gracefully. Then again I'm wearing a 47 year old watch right now, and it looks brand new, so faded this, discoloured that, and a patina of age aren't always the point of vintage - it's the style that gives away its 60 heritage, and the amazing condition its selling point.
I gave my girlfriend a completely unscratchable 'cermet' ceramic metal bracelet watch from the very early 80s (the Omega 'black tulip'), one of the earliest examples of these kinds of advanced materials, and of course it looks like it just came home from the shop - but at the same time absolutely vintage because of the styling. And I gauruntee that today's watches will also look very much of their time sooner then we think, even if they appear box fresh for decades to come.
The most sought after vintage watches are usually the "first editions" of any particular model. Surprisingly enough they are very hard to come by , whatever the brand, and continue to rise in value, way ahead of inflation. I am sure this will continue to be so
Ivan
iwcforme
Vintage watches of the future ? simple... You'll be able to buy them new. As in a current thread running on the forum.
And proudly pronounce it on the watch face in case anyone needs to know :D
There will always be something to value about watches from 30 years ago. Things like the spiderweb dial Rolex's will be popular amongst collectors.
In the Rolex Steel Sports world I have felt for some time that the ceramics have come of age, the initial reticence to them was just the transitional period that all new goods have but only yesterday I thought to myself that my the ceramic hob on my cooker is heated to several hundred degrees daily and has metal pans scrapped back and forth on it plus spill of all types and it looks fantastic, sharp, and black where as my car door, made f metal like the old metal inserts, gets a mark on t from every shopping trolley, car door, and even a loose coat buckle.
Ceramics for me all the way in the Rolex line from now on
RIAC
Interesting we live in a wastfull world it used to be repair things that didn't work, but now a days we live in a world we put it in a bin if it dosnt work and buy a new one , so in 50 years time the watches from this era should be rare as most of them got put in the bin becouse they didn't work ? So vintage watches will probley Plato in price etc , and may be some of the newer watches will be more valuable , it's a possibility ?
Wonder were the spork will sit in the collectors world in 50 years time , or the modern steinharts etc
Its true that these zirconium oxide ceramics are a remarkable material, its one of the nearest things we have to diamond, and when used in the right application I have no doubt they will last practically forever while continuing to look like new.
The ceramics are brittle though, buy yourself one of those zirconium oxide kitchen knives, fantasically sharp blades, but see how fast that edge chips away and becomes useless.
A ceramic bezel insert will eventually crack or chip away because the ceramics are made equally as thin as a knife blade. A watch case will last longer, its made much thicker, but will still crack if dropped on a hard surface.
However, I do think that ceramic watches will prove to be a good investment, just look at the prices of chinese ming dynasty vases, the main reason for their value is that so few have survived the passing of the years. So for every ceramic watch that cracks, those remaining will become rarer and rise in value, so buy your ceramic watches, just don't wear them, keep them as safe queens, and one day they will be worth a fortune.
Last edited by Meinessex; 11th May 2014 at 09:40.
Against my religion but theres plenty of people on here in that church!
RIAC
Everything is a product of its era, and watches are no exception. Different materials and manufacturing processes in the future will ensure that good watches currently available will be in demand by vintage collectors of the future. No doubt about that.
Whilst genuine parts may not be available for 50 year old watches, it will probably be possible for the watchmaker to 3d print the required components needed to keep any movement running perfectly.
We've lived in a throw away society for many years now but it's generally at the cheaper end where this happens. At the higher quality end of the market products are generally kept and become the collectible antiques of the future.
Yes, 3D printing is a good point.
A watch you buy today might not show or age the same a it's predecessor,which will always make its older cousin that much more appealing,and so "vintage" will be always with us.
5513 all the way ;-)
This is one of the best threads,ive read in a while.
Regarding vintage watches,i am amazed when discussing my watches with people of a younger generation,some are even in their 30's!
They are gobsmacked when i tell them, my watch has cogs and wheels inside,and doesn't run off batteries.
Its a great feeling,when you inspire someone to purchase there first mechanical watch.
I think there is an interest in the mechanical watch,with the younger generation,they just need to be made aware of there existence.
I no longer have high value watches,i buy my watches to wear,i wouldn't dream of buying a watch,to become a Safe Queen,i buy the watch to give ME pleasure for the next 40 years.
Regarding the winners in all of this i would say,are the watch maker who can repair the high value vintage watch,and charge a premium in years to come.
3D printing is much more likely to be a curse to watchmaking, one which we will all regret.
As a graphic designer, I witnessed the introduction of desktop publishing and computer aided design. Give someone a computer and all of a sudden they become a design expert. Standards in design fell dramatically, its still obvious today, decades after this introduction.
The same will happen with watchmaking (when it becomes possible to print such small items), the quality of any printed item will just not be there, corners will be cut by non-professionals who do not know any better.
It's one thing bring able to make the parts, quite another to fit it correctly. There will always be good and bad watchmakers and that won't change. Having the ability to manufacture the parts will be an advantage to the good watchmakers, allowing them to keep old movements going.
The bad ones will still be there doing the job badly!
True, except in the future there will be ten thousand bad watchmakers for every good well trained watchmaker.
Really? Did they not say the same when compasses where invented? Oh you should use the sun, then when GPS came along it was oh mapreading will suffer! If anything watches will get better, they will be more precision made with stronger more durable components, clearly the older stuff from 'back in the day' or today as we know it will be highly highly desirable to the clinical future pieces
RIAC
Yes they did, and they were right, you can't tell me that map reading skill haven't suffered since the advent of GPS. However thats irrelevant, end user experience has nothing to do with the craftsmen who build the things.
Disagree about the precision, show me a 3D printer that is accurate to the thousandth of a millimetre.
However, one thing is sure, with the advent of 3D printing, it won't be just the chinese making fakes, it will be every spotty teenager in their bedrooms.
Map reading skill might have declined but accuracy has increased, 3D Printers will print a human heart one day...have a ponder on that one!
I also think that production in space will be largely dependant on 3D printing technology
RIAC
I have no doubt they will.
....but wouldn't you want it fitted by a fully qualified heart surgeon?
Perhaps this depends upon which element of 'the appeal of vintage' is being considered. If the appeal is merely exclusivity or nostalgia, then the market will surely supply, even if the definition of vintage has to be continually redefined. Alternatively, the available supply of authentic functioning watches from a certain period by a certain manufacturer which predate computer contolled fully automated mass production techniques, must be finite and diminishing. Some older watches shown here seem to exude charm and I do see their appeal - but for me, such a piece would soon become too precious and its ownership a responsibility rather than a pleasure. I am however glad that some people see fit to cherish and maintain them.
I own a company that's has been selling and servicing high-end 3D Printers for over 12 years. They used to be called 'Rapid Prototyping Machines'.
They are not particularly rapid, in fact 3D Printers are very slow. Don't hold your breath waiting for them to become rapid manufacturing machines. Running costs are also very high. Some can be very accurate though, 16 Micron resolution is now commonly available.
Not a way to manufacture watches I think.
What about watches that don't have Creamy Trit Lume (tm) plots and aluminium bezel inserts? I've heard they exist ;)
...but what do I know; I don't even like watches!
One advantage of the vintage watch is that everyone knows what it is, and part of the perceived value isn't related to better performance (in fact, many of us take a perverse pleasure in wearing a watch that is less accurate and/or legible and/or connected than modern equivalents).
Spare a thought, then, for the historic violin enthusiast, where the much-lauded audible superiority of the Stradivarius marque is relentlessly being chipped away by scientific assessment:
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2...cientific-test
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/20...67111.abstract
Auction values of $7m may be hard to justify based on historical association and aged craftsmanship alone, so I suggest selling Strads short just now! Some players have taken out significant mortgages on fine instruments.
Of course there are some further experiments it would be good to see done: for example getting a group of experienced listeners to assess the instruments blind as well as players, and it would be interesting to find the cut-off in value for good results for the modern comparators. $8k, $5k, $2k???
..... and there will always be those of us who find the constant stream of new models, new finishes etc, etc to be in poor taste. Old quality items gain a tested, patinised, 'human' look to them that says all the right things about their owner.
Interesting article.
I see many parallels to the watch collecting world, if the Stradivarius bubble can burst then so can the market for those vintage watches whose value is inflated beyond their actual worth, their reputation being built on nothing but the hype from a small group of people.
My thoughts exactly,i think there will always be a demand for vintage watches.Manufacturers (mentioning no names)have not necessarily made improvements for the better,as the years have progressed.
Simple Answer: Yes.
I think that this will result in further rising prices for those Brands that saw this Trend already in the past
Pretentious....Moi?
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