Oh, yes - they will still setlle, just at a later time. No way avoiding obligations under such contracts.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montello
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Oh, yes - they will still setlle, just at a later time. No way avoiding obligations under such contracts.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montello
BP rallying strongly on the basis that the divi is safe for this year. Divi is about 12% based on current share price.Quote:
Originally Posted by crazyp
You have to take a long term view. Selling BP shares below £3 is madness. Not sure they even broke £3 during the Macondo incident, and that nearly broke the company with liabilities of $60bn.
That report isn't validated it is more of a discussion piece. I'm interested in what I believe we are about to learn from thisQuote:
Originally Posted by Montello
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...rce=reddit.com
Well those would certainly be welcome but not seismic in terms of markets IMHO ...Quote:
Originally Posted by ryanb741
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Originally Posted by ryanb741
Fantastic news. Doesn't change the fact that the economy will suffer hugely.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montello
Agreed. But it may provide detail on what the future looks like and remove some of the uncertainty. Let's see. I have a 20 year window so I'm not metaphorically sticking everything on red at the casinoQuote:
Originally Posted by Raffe
I can’t disagree with this however if the tests are sensitive and specific enough, and prove many people have already had COVID-19 without symptoms as some experts are now beginning to suspect, it could limit the economic suffering quite considerably IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by Raffe
Lots of ifs and buts, granted, but I’m hopeful.
I sold these shares very close to Macondo price. Dividend is fine, but oil will slip further and lots of restructuring is looming. So I do agree, but if I buy back in, it'll be at a later date.Quote:
Originally Posted by noTAGlove
I honestly can’t see the 13-15% market rally of the last 2 days lasting, all because the USA announced a 2 trillion dollar stimulus whilst the number of cases skyrockets( and the economic damage will continue to worsen). Anyone else think the market will lose its gains in the next few days/week?
If you are looking for a trigger for further volatility, look no further than today's release of US jobless claims for last week. I have never seen such a wide array of forecasts, from 860k to 4 million people having been laid off in one single week (and before any area of the US went into lockdown).Quote:
Originally Posted by jonny
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...06c81c9e9d.jpg
Dunno but I got out of the market last night, up 14%. Too scary for me to hang in there so I'll wait it out a bit more :)Quote:
Originally Posted by jonny
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Originally Posted by ryanb741
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Originally Posted by ryanb741
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Originally Posted by ryanb741
You need to explain me how this works. Tuesday evening you go in, Wednesday morning you say you are up 14% and Thursday morning you say you sold Thursday evening at +14%?
There is a risk that you are mistaken the last published price for the one you are getting for your transactions. You can never trade on historic prices, but your trades will be executed at the next opportunity after you placed the order. If you placed a buy order on Tuesday evening, you will likely have traded at some time during yesterday morning. If you then placed a sell order yesterday evening, that order will be executed today. In all likelihood, that trade will cost you money with European markets forecast to open in the negative.
Morning Raffe, how's the Grand-Duché this morning?Quote:
Originally Posted by Raffe
presumably Ryan sold while the market was still open........but at the close it was well down on the opening level
Even if he sold before the close, I am curious how he knew before 10:00 in the morning that he was up 14%? No such move in the markets between closing Tuesday and Wednesday morning (FTSE100 up 4% at the time).Quote:
Originally Posted by BillN
On a more fruity note
Orange juice futures are the best performing asset so far this year.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technolog...medium=custom7
A glass of OJ a day keeps the corona away:eagerness: happily we have our own little orchard of orange and a grapefruit trees, that was a sustainable, solid investment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BillN
https://i.postimg.cc/q7wS8wR8/Ficel-meeting.png
Dunno what shares or fund you are buying/selling and how big a pot you are playing with but well done if you have boosted 14% in such a short time, highly risky imho.Quote:
Originally Posted by ryanb741
The funds I invest in mostly trade once a day at noon and you have to make your order before 11 and in some cases earlier to get the noon price. In these markets the lag could cost you dearly.
One advantage of investment trusts is they trade on spot price all day.
I placed a sell order to cash in my entire SIPP holding yesterday morning.
Spent all day worrying about whether it’s the right thing to do.
Woke up having decided that I’ve run my SIPP for the last 15 years on the simple rules of a passive investing “do nothing” strategy, so to suddenly decide upon a totally different strategy now would be completely daft.
I am pretty sure the markets will go lower before they recover, maybe another 10-30% lower, who knows, but with 15 years until I retire, hopefully the blip will just be another like 2008 by then.
I did sell out of half of my ISA. Sold Lindsell Train and sold my Jupiter Global Emerging markets fund which I only own because my best pal runs it. (Don’t tell him I’ve sold out!)
I did that so that there’s a good chunk of cash and I can go back into an ETF which is quicker to buy and sell than funds, as you get the spot price like when buying shares.
Happy to play with the ISA but it’s too dangerous to mess with the pension.
If you have a long way to go before you retire, I’d say you’re better to be in the market looking out than outside looking in. Missing the bounce could be a lot more costly than avoiding some of the dip.
As an interested observer of the Markets, with no expertise at all, I am wondering if under these unprecendented circumstances we are going to be seeing the dead cat bounce a few more times before a real sustainable approach to the virus is identified. Any thoughts from the more experienced on this?
Im not sure I follow your logic, if you are sure markets will drop doesn’t it make sense to sell?Quote:
Originally Posted by mr noble
Isn't that what usually happens anyway, a couple of bounces before another precipitous plunge I expect, I claim no expertise.
Mathematical evidence says the opposite. If you lose 50%, you need a doubling of what's left to get back to where you started. The best strategy for long-term success is to avoid unnecessary losses. Now how you achieve that is another topic.Quote:
Originally Posted by mr noble
Here is an example from the past, few days old now but the red line gave plenty of false dawns on the way down.Quote:
Originally Posted by I AM LATE!
https://static.independent.co.uk/s3f...19/17/dow2.jpg
the £/Euro is doing it's usual thing ....£ stronger overnight and in the morning that gradually reverses as we get into the day
I'm gradually selling Euros, but the predictions of parity do not seem to be proving correct
IMHO this is nothing like the Great Depression. There is a ton of liquidity from the central banks plus a virus that will be found out to be more benign than feared. Final caveat I know nothing about investing so ignoring what I say would be a sensible thing to do but I just don't see this being the same as 1929.- - - Updated - - -Quote:
Originally Posted by Montello
IMHO this is nothing like the Great Depressions. There is a ton of liquidity from the central banks plus a virus that will be found out to be more benign than feared. Final caveat I know nothing about investing so ignoring what I say would be a sensible thing to do but I just don't see this being the same as 1929.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montello
True I placed the sell order last night on HL. It will go through sometime today so yes if there are market declines today it will be less than 14%. Currently markets around 2.5% down so I may net out around 11%. C'est la vie. I'm still around 17% down on January as I suspect most people areQuote:
Originally Posted by Raffe
If you placed your buy order on Tuesday night only there is no chance of being anywhere close to that, more likely up 2-3% (obviously depending on asset class or fund).Quote:
Originally Posted by ryanb741
I’m not suggesting it is, as you point out liquidity was much worse then and also the Great Depression also revealed a number of accounting frauds that had blown up the bubble.Quote:
Originally Posted by ryanb741
I was just pointing out that in a bear market the are often positive periods.
mr noble logic would say that if you genuinely thought the markets will drop 10-30% then you should be on the sidelines for now. Would an idea of going 50% cash and 50% still in the market be worth considering to hedge your bets? Might reduce your worry slightly?
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With regards to selling funds and how long it takes, could be individual shares in a SIPP as opposed to funds? I’m out the market at present but normally hold ftse shares and they are bought and sold immediately.
Still, not a chance to realise 14% between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning.Quote:
Originally Posted by Devonian
Most funds have a valuation point of noon, but not all. This information is readily available on the fund fact sheets.Quote:
Originally Posted by Devonian
HL require your order to be placed prior to 8am to get the noon price that day. I believe they can take an order over the phone after 8 and still get the noon price but that is discretionary and depends on the fund. Given how busy they are I think you’d struggle.
With the Fidelity platform and order placed before 11 with settle at noon. So in this respect the platform is better.
Obviously individual stocks and investment trusts trade on spot prices whilst markets are open.
we should start our own Investment Club?
Raffe can be the Chairman
what's today's tip
(from me - the Transferwise Euro to £ rates seems to be as good as the Currency Brokers)
Tues pm I made the instruction and weds night (last night) I made the exit request. Not weds am. I can confirm the exit request is still saying 'pending' so let's seeQuote:
Originally Posted by Raffe
You posted Wed a.m. that you were up 14%.Quote:
Originally Posted by ryanb741
A general fund yes but individual shares no. For example Carnival went up over 25% in one day so was just wondering if they were those type of holdings.Quote:
Originally Posted by Raffe
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That aside I have been contacted by someone (Not a client just wanted an opinion) who has £1.5m in a family trust (gift trust) where they draw 5% per annum. Income is the key as the beneficiary will gets whatever’s left’ so to speak. They have decided to liquidate the various holdings into cash for the time being and were told it could take between 1 and 5 days due to the unprecedented withdrawals. With Old Mutual/ Quilters who I Have dealings with and normally it’s request before 10am and sold by the next day.
I was tempted with IAG shares. Currently a third of what they were a month ago. Sat on £7bn cash pile and seemingly posturing to take advantage of other airlines that are unlikely to be able to weather the storm. Airlines...a risky bet or the first to take the hit in times of crisis and potential winners in a recovery?
If you've got to ask the question of others, I'd be giving it a miss, but everyones attitude to risk is different. Frankly there's a lot of the get rich quick feeling in the air, partly because the US has deployed, what was it a couple of trillion, which was the objective of course, though it seems likely much more may well be required, gulp, I'm staying put for now.
I'm feeling great with cash at the moment.
a positive thought - if the value of your Stocks/Shares investments, in total, is higher than the original cost you are still ahead of the game
5 days ... that is an age in these markets ...Quote:
Originally Posted by Devonian
When they do these things I always get the feeling that the fund managers are creating a window for themselves to make a little margin ...
I'm happy to be mostly cash, property and gold currently ...
Sorry to be picky but even Carnival returned zero or negative between Tuesday evening and close yesterday:Quote:
Originally Posted by Devonian
https://i.postimg.cc/pLnTT9sQ/picture-563.png
You missed the next point I made about the likelihood of missing the bounce and gains on the way back up and facing the possibility of having to buy back in at a higher price.Quote:
Originally Posted by Montello
I read a few pieces about market timing and all of them said that at times like this it’s usually safer to just sit tight and do nothing that to try to time the markets.
In that last big dip in 2008, the piece said something like, if you’d missed 3 of the biggest rebound days because you were out of the market, you’d end up down for years longer than if you’d done nothing.
Plus, when I say “markets may go down another 10-30%”, I’m referring to the FTSE 100/250 Dow/S&P etc, but most people’s SIPP money is likely all in finds like Vanguard LS80 and other similar equity trackers, which won’t see the same ups/downs as the main indexes as they have an element of hedge.
Good idea about maybe cashing 50% out to hedge it all.
I did sell about 70% of the funds in my ISA, but not brave enough to play with my pension, even though I’m expecting it to drop further before it recovers.
It’s just been very painful watching circa £100k wiped off the total in the the last few weeks!
A selfish outlook to have at this horrible time, it must be said, but no harm in discussing it all.
No problem about being picky. I’m just using the example of a share that went up a lot in one day of trading. I wasn’t using that specific timeline. It’s been as low as £6 this week and now around £10.Quote:
Originally Posted by Raffe
I know, been in the market for 25 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Devonian
I am just making the point that I don't think Ryan has made more than a tiny profit on this particular transaction, if any at all. He is yet to tell us what he invested in, unless he picked the winner of the day it will be almost impossible to record this type of gain. The way he communicates about it tells me he does not know how the trading works, which makes it very unlikely that he hit a bullseye.
Came in closer to the high end of expectations: 3,283,000 first-time claims. That’s the highest level in history, and nearly five times the highest level of claims seen during the Great Recession.Quote:
Originally Posted by Raffe
https://i.postimg.cc/sf7CvYzg/picture-564.png
Noted, wasn’t clear if you had jumped or not.Quote:
Originally Posted by mr noble
As Raffe stated, you need a 100% gain to recover a 50% drop so limiting losses is more important than missing a few gains.
Plenty of examples to support all options. I’m in preserving capital mode as I’m too near retirement to wait for slow recovery.
And just the start......Quote:
Originally Posted by Raffe
Would there be any difference if the figures were adjusted for population increases over the years or any other factors, when comparing to the Great Recession, or would it be a drop in the ocean?Quote:
Originally Posted by Raffe
- - - Updated - - -
I'd like to know this too - trying to do my own research!Quote:
Originally Posted by Raffe
Sure that would make a difference - but doesn't change that it is at least a once-in-a-generation event; and next week's numbers may well be worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by demonloop